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Jose Abreu

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 01:15 PM)
Who knows? He's maybe having his best month ever....right now.

 

But to your point....what's exactly the line of thinking, here?

 

That we built this entire team around the expectation that Jose Abreu would be able to automatically duplicate one rookie season's worth of elite numbers?

 

That Jose Abreu would absolutely clobber everything at that same .317/40 homer clip, and that he's somehow a "disappointment" for not doing so?

 

That he f***ed the Sox because the front office built the whole team around that ridiculous expectation?

 

Did this fanbase and front office learn absolutely nothing from Gordon Beckham and his rookie year/subsequent years? Or any other player with standard dropoff type things?

 

I mean...does this front office know anything about the game of baseball, in general?

 

You have to build around people eventually, you can't just assume every single player is Gordon Beckham. The Sox FO thought they had 1 of the best hitters in the game for 4+ cheap years.

 

The "3 year plan" or whatever was predicated on having (young/controlled/cheap): 2 elite starters + 1-2 more on the way shortly after, 2 elite bats (Eaton/Abreu), and a lot of luck.

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Yeah, that's really nice that our front office just automatically inserted elite numbers for presumed elite players and ostensibly filled up the rest of the lineup with hot replacement level garbage, in a hope that the dumpster would catch fire

 

seems philosophically sound to me

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 01:15 PM)
Who knows? He's maybe having his best month ever....right now.

 

But to your point....what's exactly the line of thinking, here?

 

That we built this entire team around the expectation that Jose Abreu would be able to automatically duplicate one rookie season's worth of elite numbers?

 

That Jose Abreu would absolutely clobber everything at that same .317/40 homer clip, and that he's somehow a "disappointment" for not doing so?

 

That he f***ed the Sox because the front office built the whole team around that ridiculous expectation?

 

Did this fanbase and front office learn absolutely nothing from Gordon Beckham and his rookie year/subsequent years? Or any other player with standard dropoff type things?

 

I mean...does this front office know anything about the game of baseball, in general?

 

A season of elite numbers and a season of extremely good numbers. Let's not act like he sucked during his sophomore campaign.

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I don't think he sucked at all during his sophomore campaign, but the notion that people would just expect his rookie numbers to extrapolate out over his career seems silly to me.

 

He seems to be settling in to a .290-.300/25-30 guy with an .850ish OPS. Which is great, IMO.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 01:25 PM)
A season of elite numbers and a season of extremely good numbers. Let's not act like he sucked during his sophomore campaign.

 

And he has still been 14% above average according to his OPS+ this year.

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 01:22 PM)
Yeah, that's really nice that our front office just automatically inserted elite numbers for presumed elite players and ostensibly filled up the rest of the lineup with hot replacement level garbage, in a hope that the dumpster would catch fire

 

seems philosophically sound to me

 

Uhh, I despise the ownership/FO as well...but are you saying you can never ever bank on a player being good? Always assume the worst?

 

That makes absolutely no sense and would be impossible to ever have a competitive team. With that logic we should only sign 1 year deals and replace the entire roster every winter right?

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 01:15 PM)
Who knows? He's maybe having his best month ever....right now.

 

But to your point....what's exactly the line of thinking, here?

 

That we built this entire team around the expectation that Jose Abreu would be able to automatically duplicate one rookie season's worth of elite numbers?

 

That Jose Abreu would absolutely clobber everything at that same .317/40 homer clip, and that he's somehow a "disappointment" for not doing so?

 

That he f***ed the Sox because the front office built the whole team around that ridiculous expectation?

 

Did this fanbase and front office learn absolutely nothing from Gordon Beckham and his rookie year/subsequent years? Or any other player with standard dropoff type things?

 

I mean...does this front office know anything about the game of baseball, in general?

 

This is one of the more ridiculous posts in awhile.

 

Yes it was just Abreu that they centered their rebuild around. It had nothing to do with Eaton, Sale, Quintana or Rodon.

 

Does the front office know anything about baseball? That is such a clown question. Reinsdorf has owned the team and been involved in the day to day for 25 years. Williams played professionally for 10 years and has been a GM or higher for 16 years. Hahn has been with the team 12 years as an Assistant GM/GM. Not to mention the rest of the scouts, coaches, assistants and advisers who have been around the game their entire life. But yes, some schmuck on a message board knows more than they do about the game of baseball.

Edited by lasttriptotulsa

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So, I noticed some things I thought I'd share. The first is that Abreu prior to 2016 had roughly a career .340 BABIP. For the first half of 2016, his BABIP was .314, nearly 30 points below his career mark to that point. Thus far in the second half of 2016, he has a much closer to career norm .343 BABIP, which suggests to me that the .319 AVG, .897 OPS, .200 ISO, 142 wRC+ Jose Abreu that has been hitting on the second half of this season is more likely the hitter we should expect long term.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 02:21 PM)
This is one of the more ridiculous posts in awhile.

 

Yes it was just Abreu that they centered their rebuild around. It had nothing to do with Eaton, Sale, Quintana or Rodon.

 

Does the front office know anything about baseball? That is such a clown question. Reinsdorf has owned the team and been involved in the day to day for 25 years. Williams played professionally for 10 years and has been a GM or higher for 16 years. Hahn has been with the team 12 years as an Assistant GM/GM. Not to mention the rest of the scouts, coaches, assistants and advisers who have been around the game their entire life. But yes, some schmuck on a message board knows more than they do about the game of baseball.

 

You based this entire post on assuming I was asserting what I posed as a question about someone else's ridiculous line of reasoning.

 

 

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 02:37 PM)
You based this entire post on assuming I was asserting what I posed as a question about someone else's ridiculous line of reasoning.

 

Based on your subsequent posts it is perfectly reasonable to assume you were asserting everything you said in that post.

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Alright, let me start over.

 

No, I do not believe the front office based their construction of this team around the assumption that they could plug in .317/40 for Jose Abreu each and every season.

 

Nor do I believe that Jose Abreu was the only player they were building around. Obviously Sale and Q (and others) were relied upon.

 

I do think they assumed Jose would be "very. very good". I think his 2015 and 2016 numbers were actually reasonable to expect, and obviously, expectations have been, for the most part, met.

 

I suppose my main point is that Jose Abreu is pretty far from the problem this season, and that as usual, the White Sox constructed a team of "we hope the rest of the guys are good enough!" They weren't.

 

I think 5 times in the last thirty years they've caught lightning in a bottle from dudes like Herbert Perry, and the whole organizational philosophy seems to assume that they were somehow geniuses for cracking the code and the next scrap heap undervalued diamond in the rough is just around the corner at bargain prices.

 

It's f***ing nauseating.

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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 02:36 PM)
So, I noticed some things I thought I'd share. The first is that Abreu prior to 2016 had roughly a career .340 BABIP. For the first half of 2016, his BABIP was .314, nearly 30 points below his career mark to that point. Thus far in the second half of 2016, he has a much closer to career norm .343 BABIP, which suggests to me that the .319 AVG, .897 OPS, .200 ISO, 142 wRC+ Jose Abreu that has been hitting on the second half of this season is more likely the hitter we should expect long term.

 

Meh. That might be part of it, but if you watched a lot of the Sox early in the year, you could just tell that Jose was off. Not squaring the ball up, grounding out alot, not hitting for power, not turning on the inside pitch, etc.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Aug 24, 2016 -> 07:21 AM)
Completely disagree here. If Abreu were his typical self, the Sox would be .500 or better IMO. So many games when he just didn't do anything when they needed more. This version of Jose, Morneau in the lineup all season, and Ajax healthy, this team would be right around where most thought they'd be, which is a few games over .500.

 

Don't know why you'd completely disagree. From what you said and what I said sounds pretty much the same. Problem is Morneau was not available earlier and you can't undo injuries. So take away Morneau and Ajax and your few games above .500 becomes .500 even keeping your new improved Abreu in the lineup. I said the Sox wouldn't be much better meaning they'd be better but not by much . 4 games under to .500 sounds about right.

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Jose Abreu's final August 2016 numbers: .362/.414/.648/1.062 8 homers, 6 doubles.

 

second best OPS month ever and best since mid 2014.

 

Yep, MLB pitching has sure figured him out.

 

Can anyone claim he's even having a bad year overall at this point, despite his first half numbers? If he stays hot, he might actually approach his 2015 totals.

 

 

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Our first baseman finally pushes his OPS above .800 and people want me to apologize for saying he was figured out. News flash, .805 ops and 19 homers isn't all that great for a below average fielding 1B. Jose just isn't what we thought was.

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QUOTE (ron883 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 11:41 AM)
Our first baseman finally pushes his OPS above .800 and people want me to apologize for saying he was figured out. News flash, .805 ops and 19 homers isn't all that great for a below average fielding 1B. Jose just isn't what we thought was.

 

thanks for the update. keep on truckin

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QUOTE (ron883 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 11:41 AM)
Our first baseman finally pushes his OPS above .800 and people want me to apologize for saying he was figured out. News flash, .805 ops and 19 homers isn't all that great for a below average fielding 1B. Jose just isn't what we thought was.

 

Yes, I want you to apologize for saying he was figured out by MLB pitching, which has nothing to do with his fielding. Stick to YOUR point.

 

He had a 1.062 OPS in August. Just admit you were dead f***ing wrong.

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QUOTE (ron883 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:41 PM)
Our first baseman finally pushes his OPS above .800 and people want me to apologize for saying he was figured out. News flash, .805 ops and 19 homers isn't all that great for a below average fielding 1B. Jose just isn't what we thought was.

 

He had a very good season his first year. He dropped back some last year and will probably be fairly close to last year's numbers again. His power numbers may be down a little but he is walking more and striking out less. Defensively he has been pretty mediocre since he arrived although his defensive stats are better this year over last. .

 

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 12:01 PM)
Yes, I want you to apologize for saying he was figured out by MLB pitching, which has nothing to do with his fielding. Stick to YOUR point.

 

He had a 1.062 OPS in August. Just admit you were dead f***ing wrong.

 

Nah, if I were a betting man I would bet he is just going to wait until the next time Abreu slumps and then post a new thread about how Abreu sucks, and he knew it all along.

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What ought to concern is...

 

What we saw in August is sort of how the White Sox are supposed to work right? Abreu putting up MVP numbers, Rodon Quintana and Sale all putting up ERAs under 3 for the month, production from the DH spot, normal numbers from Eaton, good numbers from Anderson, production from the catcher's spot, hell even a great 1/2 month from Garcia , he back 3 in the bullpen all present and healthy (Jones, Robertson, Jennings).

 

And given all that, they still went 12-15 in the month. Fine, add in some extra bullpen depth and pretend no one gets hurt and that goes up to 13-14 wins...but man. Abreu's hitting like this and even then they're still a .500 team.

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QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 2, 2016 -> 10:53 AM)
Abreu now at .814. He's so hot he might finish with a better OPS than last year, who knows?

With a big September it's absolutely possible. So what changed? That's the question. The lineup looks so much better with a Jose Abreu posting a 900+ OPS, especially if the holes at C, CF, and DH are addressed this offseason.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 1, 2016 -> 03:03 PM)
What ought to concern is...

 

What we saw in August is sort of how the White Sox are supposed to work right? Abreu putting up MVP numbers, Rodon Quintana and Sale all putting up ERAs under 3 for the month, production from the DH spot, normal numbers from Eaton, good numbers from Anderson, production from the catcher's spot, hell even a great 1/2 month from Garcia , he back 3 in the bullpen all present and healthy (Jones, Robertson, Jennings).

 

And given all that, they still went 12-15 in the month. Fine, add in some extra bullpen depth and pretend no one gets hurt and that goes up to 13-14 wins...but man. Abreu's hitting like this and even then they're still a .500 team.

Well not really.

 

#1 Shields

#2 Bullpen

 

Those are two things that are relatively easy to address in the offseason.

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