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Reasonable Waiver Trade Cadidates

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Alright, so after that absolute train wreck of a trade deadline, I'm praying that the Front Office at least seizes on the opportunity to explore some waiver trade talks.

 

The most likely candidates to pass through waivers, based on inflated salaries:

Robertson (could certainly be claimed by a contender)

Melky (the most likely to get claimed, as he's only got a year left on his salary and is productive)

Shields (least likely to be claimed, based on his peripherals, even as he's pitched better)

 

The next batch of guys that probably won't pass through waivers, but could potentially be dealt if claimed. These guys would require solid returns:

Frazier

Abreu

Miggy Gonzalez

Lawrie

 

The "who knows" category - guys that could have value to some teams based on injuries or unforeseen circumstances:

AJax

Jennings

Morneau

 

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Melky and Robertson dont have a chance to clear waivers. But they should make it to a contender you could maybe work something out with. Would be wise to monitor injuries and perhaps delay putting them through.

 

Shields will 200% clear. Hes the only chip here.

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 01:41 PM)
Melky and Robertson dont have a chance to clear waivers. But they should make it to a contender you could maybe work something out with. Would be wise to monitor injuries and perhaps delay putting them through.

 

Shields will 200% clear. Hes the only chip here.

 

The Sox would have to send cash to a trading partner for Shields. I don't see that happening.

 

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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 02:41 PM)
Melky and Robertson dont have a chance to clear waivers. But they should make it to a contender you could maybe work something out with. Would be wise to monitor injuries and perhaps delay putting them through.

 

Shields will 200% clear. Hes the only chip here.

 

Doesn't make a difference when you put them on. Once they're cleared, you can negotiate with anyone. And if you can always take guys back and put them back through if they're claimed anyway.

 

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QUOTE (Black_Jack29 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 03:37 PM)
The Sox would have to send cash to a trading partner for Shields. I don't see that happening.

 

If it's money coming from the Padres, I don't think it matters.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 03:44 PM)
Doesn't make a difference when you put them on. Once they're cleared, you can negotiate with anyone. And if you can always take guys back and put them back through if they're claimed anyway.

Talking about guys who will get claimed. They can only go though twice as far as I know.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 03:44 PM)
Doesn't make a difference when you put them on. Once they're cleared, you can negotiate with anyone. And if you can always take guys back and put them back through if they're claimed anyway.

You only get one shot with revokable waivers, if the player is claimed and you revoke the waiver then that's it. You can put him on waivers again but that's non-revokable so the claiming team would get the player with no compensation necessary.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 02:45 PM)
If it's money coming from the Padres, I don't think it matters.

 

Shields is owed almost $50M (including the buyout) for the remainder of his contract. The Padres are only paying $22M of that, and that money is going to the Sox. If I'm a contender that's trying to trade for Shields, I want the Sox to pay me the $22M from the Padres, and I'd probably want the Sox to eat an additional $5M of Shields' contract. And I'm not going to give up much in return for Shields if I have to take on $20M+ of salary for a pitcher near the end of his career.

 

From the Sox's perspective, it's a partial salary dump with no player of value in return. It might make more sense for the Sox to have Shields at $10M next year as their #5 and trade him in July of 2017, when he's only owed $23M. If Shields sucks in 2017 (a distinct possibility) the Sox will have to eat $23M. They may want to avoid that scenario, or they may not care that much with Frazier, Melky, etc. coming off the books.

 

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 03:44 PM)
Doesn't make a difference when you put them on. Once they're cleared, you can negotiate with anyone. And if you can always take guys back and put them back through if they're claimed anyway.

 

Problem is, no one besides Shields is going to clear waivers on this team.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 04:16 PM)
Problem is, no one besides Shields is going to clear waivers on this team.

 

Yeah he's the only one I'd expect.

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If Shields is a pure salary dump, they might as well keep him. After the rough start, he's basically pitching as well as they likely expected. Why dump the guy, unless 2017 is a complete rebuild year? If he keeps pitching well, he probably has a bit of surplus value (taking into account the SD money).

Edited by bighurt574

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QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 04:40 PM)
If Shields is a pure salary dump, they might as well keep him. After the rough start, he's basically pitching as well as they likely expected. Why dump the guy, unless 2017 is a complete rebuild year? If he keeps pitching well, he probably has a bit of surplus value (taking into account the SD money).

 

If Sox don't believe that Fulmer is ready to join the rotation next season, they should keep Shields for another year and hope for the best. If not, there's no reason for Shields to be on the roster.

 

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Well, they acquired him on a three year deal, and nothing has really changed since then other than falling out of contention this year. He was seemingly part of their plans for 2017 and 2018.

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QUOTE (Black_Jack29 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 05:50 PM)
If Sox don't believe that Fulmer is ready to join the rotation next season, they should keep Shields for another year and hope for the best. If not, there's no reason for Shields to be on the roster.

 

Agreed. And I don't think he's ready. So keep the rotation intact unless you decide to rebuild. Or trade Shields or Gonzalez and sign another 5th starter.

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Shields' peripherals are awful. He's Latos with much better luck. They should dump him and save the $22 million if they can. I think Robertson could be moved even if claimed and Morneau should clear and be moved as well. Could see some action this month.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 07:30 PM)
Shields' peripherals are awful. He's Latos with much better luck. They should dump him and save the $22 million if they can. I think Robertson could be moved even if claimed and Morneau should clear and be moved as well. Could see some action this month.

 

I don't think that the Sox will get anything of value in return for Morneau, and he doesn't make enough money for a salary-dump. If anything, they might want to consider offering him a contract extension on the cheap. I'd like him at DH more than Avi.

 

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 08:30 PM)
Shields' peripherals are awful. He's Latos with much better luck. They should dump him and save the $22 million if they can. I think Robertson could be moved even if claimed and Morneau should clear and be moved as well. Could see some action this month.

Why would Morneau clear? He's making a $1M. Anyone interested in him would happily pay his measily salary and simply claim him.

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They may be able to work out waiver deals for Melky and Robertson.

Shields no chance - he'll sail through and it won't matter.

 

I have much more confidence in Aranaudo pitching well next year than Shields.

Edited by GreenSox

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QUOTE (Black_Jack29 @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 08:40 PM)
I don't think that the Sox will get anything of value in return for Morneau, and he doesn't make enough money for a salary-dump. If anything, they might want to consider offering him a contract extension on the cheap. I'd like him at DH more than Avi.

 

Yeah I don't see him clearing either - but the Sox have some leverage over claiming teams, because they have no real incentive to just give him away. So if he hits well this month I don't think it's impossible that he returns a decent prospect.

 

In some ways he could actually be more valuable than most available bats, as he's basically riskless money-wise.

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QUOTE (Username @ Aug 3, 2016 -> 03:28 PM)
Yeah I don't see him clearing either - but the Sox have some leverage over claiming teams, because they have no real incentive to just give him away. So if he hits well this month I don't think it's impossible that he returns a decent prospect.

 

In some ways he could actually be more valuable than most available bats, as he's basically riskless money-wise.

 

We did trade Dunn so you never know. If he has a good month they may be able to an interesting prospect.

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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Aug 3, 2016 -> 02:20 PM)
They may be able to work out waiver deals for Melky and Robertson.

Shields no chance - he'll sail through and it won't matter.

 

I have much more confidence in Aranaudo pitching well next year than Shields.

 

 

If Shields clears waivers, then that means he can be traded to any team, and not just the team that claimed him.

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If someone claims Shields, do they take on his entire contract or just the portion that the Sox owe him?

 

No way Melky clears waivers, he is below market value asset in a constrained environment. Robertson is near market value, but with the low number of quality arms available I doubt he will make it through.

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QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Aug 3, 2016 -> 05:50 PM)
If someone claims Shields, do they take on his entire contract or just the portion that the Sox owe him?

 

No way Melky clears waivers, he is below market value asset in a constrained environment. Robertson is near market value, but with the low number of quality arms available I doubt he will make it through.

 

Agreed. Boston and Yankees I'd think would both place a claim on Robertson so he wouldn't even make it out of AL.

Edited by soxfan2014

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