Jon Heyman: Sox have little interest in moving Sale or Quintana

[Thad Bosley]

1. Wieters will end this season with more than 400 PA and had nearly 300 last season. Every player comes with an injury risk but he appears to be past his Tommy John at this point.

2. In the past 6 seasons Fowler's lowest WAR has been 1.5 in his one season with the Astros. Even if he does what he did with the Astros that's still a big upgrade from Jackson/Schuck.

3. I still think the Royals cut Volquez lose but even if they don't it shouldn't be that hard to find someone to fill the #5 SP role (Fulmer?). Even an ERA in the 4.75-5.25 range as you suggest is a massive upgrade from what this team has gotten this season from that spot. The combined ERA of Danks/Shields/Ranaudo is just below 8!

4. Moreland is a career 765 OPS. Even if he dips to 725-750 that's still an upgrade over the combined numbers put up this season by Avi/Sands/Morneau. Also, I have him slotted in the 6 hole behind Fowler, Eaton, Abreu, Frazier, and Melky. He typically bats 6 or 7 for the AL best Texas Rangers.

What are you trying to compete for with these proposed acquisitions? The wildcard? Because even adding these players does not put us in Cleveland's class. They would still be the superior team by far.

 

No, it's time. Time to tear her up and move in a different direction. Glad to hear the news Dick Allen shared strongly suggesting Sox management is preparing to do just that.

[caulfield12]

It's almost unbelieveable...until we actually hear it from KW and JR as well.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Boras is going to get $10 million for Wieters from SOMEONE.

$15 million for Fowler for one year.

 

$7 million for Volquez. $8 million for Moreland.

Wieters replaces the Avila/Navarro combo. $10MM vs $6.5MM or $3.5MM increase. Fowler is not getting $15MM AAV. I could see $10-12MM AAV over 3 or 4 years. Let's say $12MM vs $5MM they paid AJ this year or $7MM increase. Even if Volquez gets $7MM his salary combined with Shields and Fulmer amounts to $18MM or $2MM less than what they paid Shields and Danks this year. Moreland isn't getting $8MM AAV unless maybe it's only a one year deal. Even then, consider Pedro Alvarez as a decent comp from last season and he got 1/$5.75MM last offseason. I think Moreland gets $6MM AAV over 3 years vs ~$1MM they spent for DH this year. Add it all up and that's an approx. $13.5MM increase. I realize other players are due a raise because of arbitration, etc. but still that only bumps total payroll up $15-20MM from this season, no where near $40MM. I would expect some of those increases to be offset by losing guys like Turner, Latos and Avi and not buying out guys like Albers.

[Hatchetman]

Fowler's going to get PAID this year. Another good year and little FA competition this go around (unlike last year). They're also going to have to spend at least $10MM on a couple of relievers too.

[caulfield12]

Wieters replaces the Avila/Navarro combo. $10MM vs $6.5MM or $3.5MM increase. Fowler is not getting $15MM AAV. I could see $10-12MM AAV over 3 or 4 years. Let's say $12MM vs $5MM they paid AJ this year or $7MM increase. Even if Volquez gets $7MM his salary combined with Shields and Fulmer amounts to $18MM or $2MM less than what they paid Shields and Danks this year. Moreland isn't getting $8MM AAV unless maybe it's only a one year deal. Even then, consider Pedro Alvarez as a decent comp from last season and he got 1/$5.75MM last offseason. I think Moreland gets $6MM AAV over 3 years vs ~$1MM they spent for DH this year. Add it all up and that's an approx. $13.5MM increase. I realize other players are due a raise because of arbitration, etc. but still that only bumps total payroll up $15-20MM from this season, no where near $40MM. I would expect some of those increases to be offset by losing guys like Turner, Latos and Avi and not buying out guys like Albers.

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/yearly/payroll/

This is where the problems start....just with built in salary escalators, not even considering arbitration, they're up another $10 million.

 

If you didn't have Robertson and Shields on the roster, it might have been possible...at least theoretically. That's not accounting for the likes of Miguel Gonzalez and Lawrie, either.

Edited September 7, 2016 by caulfield12

[Thad Bosley]

Wieters replaces the Avila/Navarro combo. $10MM vs $6.5MM or $3.5MM increase. Fowler is not getting $15MM AAV. I could see $10-12MM AAV over 3 or 4 years. Let's say $12MM vs $5MM they paid AJ this year or $7MM increase. Even if Volquez gets $7MM his salary combined with Shields and Fulmer amounts to $18MM or $2MM less than what they paid Shields and Danks this year. Moreland isn't getting $8MM AAV unless maybe it's only a one year deal. Even then, consider Pedro Alvarez as a decent comp from last season and he got 1/$5.75MM last offseason. I think Moreland gets $6MM AAV over 3 years vs ~$1MM they spent for DH this year. Add it all up and that's an approx. $13.5MM increase. I realize other players are due a raise because of arbitration, etc. but still that only bumps total payroll up $15-20MM from this season, no where near $40MM. I would expect some of those increases to be offset by losing guys like Turner, Latos and Avi and not buying out guys like Albers.

Which team currently earmarked for the postseason would we presumably supplant next year if the Sox made all of the acquisitions you suggest above? Who do we leap frog over, given the starting point is the current roster, and then adding the guys you want?

[caulfield12]

Three teams in AL East and Yankees will definitely be better.

 

Three teams in the Central we can't beat.

 

Rangers, Astros and Mariners.

 

We would still be 9th-11th in the AL, at best. Ahead of Tampa, Oakland, LAA and hopefully the Twins.

[Balta1701]

Where are they going to get the money to add roughly $40 million in payroll for next year?

I think $40 million is a good estimate for the max they'd have to play with. They were above $130m this season counting LaRoche, and they're under $100m committed for next year.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/chicago-white-sox/yearly/payroll/

This is where the problems start....just with built in salary escalators, not even considering arbitration, they're up another $10 million.

 

If you didn't have Robertson and Shields on the roster, it might have been possible...at least theoretically. That's not accounting for the likes of Miguel Gonzalez and Lawrie, either.

I see ~$8MM in salary escalators and who knows how much in arb but as I said those can be partially offset by losing guys like Latos ($3MM), Turner ($1.5MM), Garcia ($2.1MM), Albers ($2MM), and with the emergence of Saladino, Lawrie and his $4.1MM salary look to be a good trade candidate for a young RP with Carlos Sanchez filling the utility IF role. I'd fill the 4th and 5th OF spots with a combination of Tilson, May, league min vets.

[Balta1701]

Which team currently earmarked for the postseason would we presumably supplant next year if the Sox made all of the acquisitions you suggest above? Who do we leap frog over, given the starting point is the current roster, and then adding the guys you want?

Make it simpler than this; ignore the wild card for a minute. Pretend it doesn't exist in your planning.

 

Is that team, on paper, clearly better than the Indians? They'll have some people like Napoli regress yes, but that roster is still pretty loaded, they'll have money to spend after a playoff run too, they'll be looking at having Brantley back and Miller for the whole season, plus other guys farther along.

 

Does that patched together White Sox team stand out relative to them? If not, then you're in "and if everything goes correctly we can compete for the wild card" territory, and that's not good territory to be in.

[Special K]

Does the Shields trade win the award for worst trade of the 2016 season? Having trouble thinking of worse trades...

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I was hoping they'd give it one more crack before starting the rebuild but I guess everyone here gets what they want now. Should see a surge in attendance the next few years since this is what everyone wants to see. Yippee another 5 years of sub .500 baseball

Isn't that what Dick just said Hahn said? If not this year than surely after next year ? S they still might give it a go next year . Probably will.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Isn't that what Dick just said Hahn said? If not this year than surely after next year ? S they still might give it a go next year . Probably will.

Dick said the plan is to start the rebuild this offseason

[Dick Allen]

Dick said the plan is to start the rebuild this offseason

He was saying he didn't want to show his hand but he was showing his hand, and did mention if they didn't do it this year, they would have to next, unless there was a big influx of cash. He also emphasized the past "pivot points", how the Sox tried to extend trying to win instead of taking a step back, and it wound up blowing up in their faces.

 

I don't think anyone there thinks he isn't going to start a rebuild this coming offseason. How big it is would be anyone's guess.

[Rowand44]

I'm not doubting DA as I know he's just posting what he was told but I'll believe it when I see it.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

Make it simpler than this; ignore the wild card for a minute. Pretend it doesn't exist in your planning.

 

Is that team, on paper, clearly better than the Indians? They'll have some people like Napoli regress yes, but that roster is still pretty loaded, they'll have money to spend after a playoff run too, they'll be looking at having Brantley back and Miller for the whole season, plus other guys farther along.

 

Does that patched together White Sox team stand out relative to them? If not, then you're in "and if everything goes correctly we can compete for the wild card" territory, and that's not good territory to be in.

Indians have followed four 90+ win seasons over the past 15 years with 85 wins or less the next season. MLB isn't NBA - nothing is guaranteed with the best team on paper. Field a competitive team and you have a chance. Also, since the advent of the second wild card, a wild card team has won the WS exactly the same number of times as the team with the best regular season record in baseball (once). Just get there and see what a rotation of Sale, Q, Rodon, and Fulmer can do. Playoffs are a crap shoot and pitching typically rules in October.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Does the Shields trade win the award for worst trade of the 2016 season? Having trouble thinking of worse trades...

 

 

Shelby Miller trade is worse

[Hatchetman]

Only two more years on Sale's contract, right? And the Sox will never re-sign him at market value. Plus he called KW an M.F.'er.

 

Sale....he GAWN!

 

Quintana....probably not.

[OmarComing25]

Make it simpler than this; ignore the wild card for a minute. Pretend it doesn't exist in your planning.

 

Is that team, on paper, clearly better than the Indians? They'll have some people like Napoli regress yes, but that roster is still pretty loaded, they'll have money to spend after a playoff run too, they'll be looking at having Brantley back and Miller for the whole season, plus other guys farther along.

 

Does that patched together White Sox team stand out relative to them? If not, then you're in "and if everything goes correctly we can compete for the wild card" territory, and that's not good territory to be in.

I want to rebuild but I don't get this logic. Following this, you should only try to compete when you're clearly the best team in your division? That means that only a small handful of teams should be trying to compete in any given year, which would be ridiculous.

[Quin]

Only two more years on Sale's contract, right? And the Sox will never re-sign him at market value. Plus he called KW an M.F.'er.

 

Sale....he GAWN!

 

Quintana....probably not.

 

Three.

 

[Hatchetman]

Three.

 

In that case, nevermind!

[Y2Jimmy0]

Only two more years on Sale's contract, right? And the Sox will never re-sign him at market value. Plus he called KW an M.F.'er.

 

Sale....he GAWN!

 

Quintana....probably not.

 

 

Sale is signed for the next 3 seasons for $39 million. Quintana is locked up for the next 4 seasons at $36.85 million. Ridiculous

[southsider2k5]

I'm not doubting DA as I know he's just posting what he was told but I'll believe it when I see it.

 

Considering the audience is the season ticket holders the team is trying to convince to stick around, this could be an instance of trying to prepare them for the worst.

[Dick Allen]

Considering the audience is the season ticket holders the team is trying to convince to stick around, this could be an instance of trying to prepare them for the worst.

Actually, I don't want a rebuild, and I was definitely in the minority at this thing.

[TheTruth05]

Considering the audience is the season ticket holders the team is trying to convince to stick around, this could be an instance of trying to prepare them for the worst.

 

 

Actually, I don't want a rebuild, and I was definitely in the minority at this thing.

 

I assume they're all aware how the North side has become the only team in Chicago over the past 1.5 years that even most of the older STH want to start this thing ASAP.