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Carpe Diem

Jose Abreu NEEDS to be Traded (Merge if need be)

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I've seen a lot of discussion about Sale and/or Quintana being dealt as well as the usual suspects like Frazier, Melky, Robertson, Jones, ext but I think the biggest no brainer who should be moved is Jose Abreu.

 

He obviously is a talented hitter and a very good middle of the order bat, but to me I view a potential return of what he would bring as more valuable than him playing out his contract on the South Side AND his value will never be higher. Yes he will be 30 next year, but his contract still runs for another 3 years at a VERY affordable price for any MLB team.

 

I think the team that makes the most sense would be the Nationals. Their window is open for 2 more years until Harper probably leaves and Scherzer ages. Their offense again let them down in the playoffs and they have a major hole at 1B. Why not trade them a package of Abreu and Nate Jones (who also possesses enormous value given his contract) for Giolito and say Victor Robles among others?

Edited by Carpe Diem

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The market for guys who are basically DH's is dead. He is now hitting years where he can opt out for arb. I don't think he has very much surplus value to be honest.

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QUOTE (Carpe Diem @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 01:26 PM)
I've seen a lot of discussion about Sale and/or Quintana being dealt as well as the usual suspects like Frazier, Melky, Robertson, Jones, ext but I think the biggest no brainer who should be moved is Jose Abreu.

 

He obviously is a talented hitter and a very good middle of the order bat, but to me I view a potential return of what he would bring as more valuable than him playing out his contract on the South Side AND his value will never be higher. Yes he will be 30 next year, but his contract still runs for another 3 years at a VERY affordable price for any MLB team.

 

I think the team that makes the most sense would be the Nationals. Their window is open for 2 more years until Harper probably leaves and Scherzer ages. Their offense again let them down in the playoffs and they have a major hole at 1B. Why not trade them a package of Abreu and Nate Jones (who also possesses enormous value given his contract) for Giolito and say Victor Robles among others?

 

His value is probably not as high as you think. While he remains a productive hitter, Abreu just ranked 11th among first baseman in wRC+ and just 14th in fWAR. Further, he is about to opt into his first of three arbitration seasons, and his raise will be beginning from a base of about $13m per year. Given that his cumulative RBI and homerun totals (which tend to be the types of numbers that drive arb prices up) overrate his overall production, he's going to be making close to his actual market value very quickly. If he produces like he did this season going forward, in fact, he may even be at market value on opening day of 2017.

 

That doesn't mean we should dump him or anything, but it means that the return may not be worth much (if any) more than what we get by keeping him around. Plus, by all accounts, Abreu seems to be one of the only calm and stabilizing leadership personalities in the clubhouse, so his value to the White Sox may very well be more than it is to another contender.

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Jose's OPS has dropped every season in the MLB. He will be 30 and will be hitting arb years soon. He is an atrocious defender and is really nothing special as far as 1B/DH hitters go. Who the hell would give up something of value for Jose Abreu? He just isn't that great of a player. Middle of the pack first baseman. Jose is way, way overrated by sox fans.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 01:40 PM)
His value is probably not as high as you think. While he remains a productive hitter, Abreu just ranked 11th among first baseman in wRC+ and just 14th in fWAR. Further, he is about to opt into his first of three arbitration seasons, and his raise will be beginning from a base of about $13m per year. Given that his cumulative RBI and homerun totals (which tend to be the types of numbers that drive arb prices up) overrate his overall production, he's going to be making close to his actual market value very quickly. If he produces like he did this season going forward, in fact, he may even be at market value on opening day of 2017.

 

That doesn't mean we should dump him or anything, but it means that the return may not be worth much (if any) more than what we get by keeping him around. Plus, by all accounts, Abreu seems to be one of the only calm and stabilizing leadership personalities in the clubhouse, so his value to the White Sox may very well be more than it is to another contender.

 

Abreu would be a fool to opt into arbitration right now. He would barely make more money, if any at all, in 2017 and would risk losing the guaranteed money he has coming in 2018 and 2019.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 01:40 PM)
His value is probably not as high as you think. While he remains a productive hitter, Abreu just ranked 11th among first baseman in wRC+ and just 14th in fWAR. Further, he is about to opt into his first of three arbitration seasons, and his raise will be beginning from a base of about $13m per year. Given that his cumulative RBI and homerun totals (which tend to be the types of numbers that drive arb prices up) overrate his overall production, he's going to be making close to his actual market value very quickly. If he produces like he did this season going forward, in fact, he may even be at market value on opening day of 2017.

 

That doesn't mean we should dump him or anything, but it means that the return may not be worth much (if any) more than what we get by keeping him around. Plus, by all accounts, Abreu seems to be one of the only calm and stabilizing leadership personalities in the clubhouse, so his value to the White Sox may very well be more than it is to another contender.

 

Agreed and considering the troubles the White Sox have had in finding an average DH the last few years he is probably more valuable to us than any other team in that respect too.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 12:01 PM)
Agreed and considering the troubles the White Sox have had in finding an average DH the last few years he is probably more valuable to us than any other team in that respect too.

Not only an average DH, but any kind of average bat, to be honest.

 

We can't afford to be giving away productive bats for any reason right now, save some overwhelming offer.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 01:49 PM)
Abreu would be a fool to opt into arbitration right now. He would barely make more money, if any at all, in 2017 and would risk losing the guaranteed money he has coming in 2018 and 2019.

 

 

People are getting way too worked up about his beginning of the year slump last season. He was one of the best hitters in the MLB from July 1st on and certainly MUCH better than Ryan Zimmerman.

 

 

If Nationals don't want to waste the Bryce Harper era you gotta take some chances.

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I don't think Jose's value is all that high and he's probably more valuable to the Sox than anyone else. I'm pretty much open to trading anyone but Jose is down on the list of guys it makes sense to deal.

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QUOTE (Carpe Diem @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:20 PM)
People are getting way too worked up about his beginning of the year slump last season. He was one of the best hitters in the MLB from July 1st on and certainly MUCH better than Ryan Zimmerman.

 

 

If Nationals don't want to waste the Bryce Harper era you gotta take some chances.

 

To be fair, the first thing that a Nationals GM should bring up is those numbers. With his age, it is a legitimate question.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:23 PM)
I don't think Jose's value is all that high and he's probably more valuable to the Sox than anyone else. I'm pretty much open to trading anyone but Jose is down on the list of guys it makes sense to deal.

 

Speaking in real players terms, I think a deal for Jose Abreu right now brings the Sox back someone like Charlie Tilson or Leury Garcia, and not an A or B prospect.

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:23 PM)
I don't think Jose's value is all that high and he's probably more valuable to the Sox than anyone else. I'm pretty much open to trading anyone but Jose is down on the list of guys it makes sense to deal.

 

He bated .362/.414/.648 in August

 

He bated .319/ .376/.504 in September

 

Very Charlie Tilson-ish LOL

Edited by Carpe Diem

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QUOTE (Carpe Diem @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:34 PM)
He bated .362/.414/.648 in August

 

He bated .319/ .376/.504 in September

 

Very Charlie Tilson-ish LOL

Which basically evened out his horrific start because that's how baseball usually works. We have 3 years worth of data on Jose right now to tell us he's a good but not great hitter who happens to be horrific in the field. Is he an asset? Absolutely. Is he someone that's going to bring you a tremendous haul? Absolutely not. Like I said, I'm open to trading anyone but out of the core guys he's going to bring you the least in return so there's no definitely no need to trade him.

Edited by Rowand44

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:46 PM)
Which basically evened out his horrific start because that's how baseball usually works. We have 3 years worth of data on Jose right now to tell us he's a good but not great hitter who happens to be horrific in the field. Is he an asset? Absolutely. Is he someone that's going to bring you a tremendous haul? Absolutely not. Like I said, I'm open to trading anyone but out of the core guys he's going to bring you the least in return so there's no definitely no need to trade him.

 

My point is that you have to take into account the entire context of where things stand in the MLB. The free agent market is extremely thin and Abreu is signed for 3 more years at a very affordable salary. Say what you want about when you believe his play will start dipping, but he is still only 30 years old and a proven .300 hitter with 25-35 HR power. Those don't just fall off trees.

 

 

The playoffs could not have gone any better for the White Sox. Red Sox and Rangers pitching tanks and the Nationals offense, once again, lets them down.

 

TIME TO CHASH THESE TRADE CHIPS IN BABYYYYY

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QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:46 PM)
Which basically evened out his horrific start because that's how baseball usually works. We have 3 years worth of data on Jose right now to tell us he's a good but not great hitter who happens to be horrific in the field. Is he an asset? Absolutely. Is he someone that's going to bring you a tremendous haul? Absolutely not. Like I said, I'm open to trading anyone but out of the core guys he's going to bring you the least in return so there's no definitely no need to trade him.

 

He is a good player for sure, but you have to look at the whole package. Think of it this way, if he was currently a free agent, what kind of a contract would he currently get? Would it be a lot above 3/35? Even if it would be a bit above that, don't forget the guy can opt into arb each of the next three years. If he does recover to 2014 form, he is about to get a lot more expensive.

 

I just don't see a lot of surplus value there, especially the arb opt in looming over head.

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QUOTE (Carpe Diem @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:51 PM)
My point is that you have to take into account the entire context of where things stand in the MLB. The free agent market is extremely thin and Abreu is signed for 3 more years at a very affordable salary. Say what you want about when you believe his play will start dipping, but he is still only 30 years old and a proven .300 hitter with 25-35 HR power. Those don't just fall off trees.

 

 

The playoffs could not have gone any better for the White Sox. Red Sox and Rangers pitching tanks and the Nationals offense, once again, lets them down.

 

TIME TO CHASH THESE TRADE CHIPS IN BABYYYYY

 

This isn't true. Abreu can opt into the arbitration system at any point in the next three years.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:55 PM)
This isn't true. Abreu can opt into the arbitration system at any point in the next three years.

 

Ah gotcha my apologies

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QUOTE (bmags @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 02:01 PM)
Agreed and considering the troubles the White Sox have had in finding an average DH the last few years he is probably more valuable to us than any other team in that respect too.

Agree

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 12:49 PM)
Abreu would be a fool to opt into arbitration right now. He would barely make more money, if any at all, in 2017 and would risk losing the guaranteed money he has coming in 2018 and 2019.

 

Really? You think he's a likely non-tender candidate over the next three years? Also, he's all but guaranteed a raise -- the arbiters don't look at total value, they look at how much of a RAISE the guy has earned. Dingers and ribbies have shown to be chief there.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 09:15 PM)
Really? You think he's a likely non-tender candidate over the next three years? Also, he's all but guaranteed a raise -- the arbiters don't look at total value, they look at how much of a RAISE the guy has earned. Dingers and ribbies have shown to be chief there.

 

He could get hurt this year and never play again. Is it really worth risking $25M to MAYBE make an extra $2M next year? I wouldn't think so. It would make a lot more sense to opt out after next year.

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QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 09:26 PM)
He could get hurt this year and never play again. Is it really worth risking $25M to MAYBE make an extra $2M next year? I wouldn't think so. It would make a lot more sense to opt out after next year.

 

Maybe. Hard to tell how a guy views money after he already has ~$30m or so. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd make $3-4m extra this year, and getting that extra trip in means a lot more in the sixth year.

 

I hope FanGraphs does an article on it -- they always have a really good arb estimator model.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 20, 2016 -> 11:52 PM)
Maybe. Hard to tell how a guy views money after he already has ~$30m or so. I wouldn't be surprised if he'd make $3-4m extra this year, and getting that extra trip in means a lot more in the sixth year.

 

I hope FanGraphs does an article on it -- they always have a really good arb estimator model.

 

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they aren't already talking to him to get an idea of his plans. If he does opt in to arbitration they should look at buying out his first year or two of free agency and give him a little bit more during his arb years.

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Is Abreu not as good as he used to be? Yes. Is he still an above average MLB hitter? Yes. Should he be the guy everyone is worried about upgrading over positions like C, DH, CF, etc? No.

 

With that being said, I wouldn't be opposed to dealing him. I don't see him aging well. But they'd have to get a worthwhile return or it's pointless.

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