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Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:08 PM)
I would not give up a top 100 prospect for Todd Frazier with the number of bats available on the FA market and their seemingly dropping prices. I find it entirely reasonable to have him after Jennings in terms of trade value. I do agree he would appear to be above Gonzalez.

 

Edit: Following this same logic I could find Abreu lower on that list than #3 as well.

Which of those sluggers play 3B? Don't think it's fair to just lump him into the slugger category. Also, a team that trades for Frazier now would likely get a draft pick if/when he left. I think a prospect in the 75 to the 125 range would be fair value.

 

The question is what contenders actually need help at 3B right now. That's the bigger concern IMO than the presence of other sluggers on the market.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 05:18 PM)
My guess for rest of offseason:

Trade Q

Trade Robertson

 

Put Jones in as closer, Trade Jones at deadline.

 

Can't move melky for more than a salary dump. Sox need to make decision if Frazier return is better than a 2nd or 3rd round salary allotment.

 

+1

 

I think you ride out Frazier and abreu until their market improves. Otherwise take the picks

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Dan Jennings is not worth near what some posters seem to think he is. Nice ERA but extremely meh peripherals. The market no longer rewards relievers like that. It's why Matt Albers only cost the Sox $2m last year coming off a 1.21 ERA.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:18 PM)
My guess for rest of offseason:

Trade Q

Trade Robertson

 

Put Jones in as closer, Trade Jones at deadline.

 

Can't move melky for more than a salary dump. Sox need to make decision if Frazier return is better than a 2nd or 3rd round salary allotment.

 

Agreed with this. Frazier and Melky are prime deadline deals that I can see having more value then than now.

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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:23 PM)
Dan Jennings is not worth near what some posters seem to think he is. Nice ERA but extremely meh peripherals. The market no longer rewards relievers like that. It's why Matt Albers only cost the Sox $2m last year coming off a 1.21 ERA.

Not a great comparison IMO. Left-handed pitching is always in demand and a guy like Jennings should have some value despite mediocre peripherals.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:27 PM)
Not a great comparison IMO. Left-handed pitching is always in demand and a guy like Jennings should have some value despite mediocre peripherals.

It won't be in great demand if he goes out and pitches the same way he did last year but puts up an ERA close to the mid-4s like he probably should have. Also although he performs better against lefties he's not exactly a lefty-killer, so he has limited value as a LOOGY.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:21 PM)
Which of those sluggers play 3B? Don't think it's fair to just lump him into the slugger category. Also, a team that trades for Frazier now would likely get a draft pick if/when he left. I think a prospect in the 75 to the 125 range would be fair value.

 

The question is what contenders actually need help at 3B right now. That's the bigger concern IMO than the presence of other sluggers on the market.

If you can name a contender that has a 3b opening I'm listening.

 

AL East: Boston (Panda lots of money, already cleaned them out), Bal (Machado), NYY (Headley), Tor (Donaldson)

AL Central: Cle (Jose Ramirez worth more fWAR than Frazier last year), KCR (Moustakas), Det (Castellanos and they are way over the Luxury tax line).

AL West: Hou (Bregman), Tex (Beltre), Sea (Seager), Los Angeles Angels (fine he's an upgrade for them but they have 0 top 100 prospects).

NL East: Mets (Wright - maybe at best, depending on Health), Was (Rendon), Phi (Franco)

NL Central: Cubs (MVP), Pirates (Freese/Kang), STL (Gyorko)

NL West: Col (Arenado), LAD (Turner), Ari (Jake Lamb), SFG (Duffy, Gillaspie, and Nunez at 3b produced more fWAR than Frazier last year).

 

Basically, he's a slight upgrade for Los Angeles, Detroit, San Francisco, Boston, the Mets, and the Yankees, but literally none of them "need" him until someone gets hurt and several of them won't be adding money obviously. Every one of them has a 3b starter right now. Every one of them could go after Valbuena to add some depth at that spot if they were worried about it and just on dollars it should cost them less than Frazier. If the season unfolds and Headley becomes available, the Yankees would likely give him up for some minor league filler.

 

I think he'd be a reasonable fit for KCR - could play 1b and 3b and DH for them and add power in the middle of their lineup, but he's not worth a top 100 prospect for them.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:08 PM)
I would not give up a top 100 prospect for Todd Frazier with the number of bats available on the FA market and their seemingly dropping prices. I find it entirely reasonable to have him after Jennings in terms of trade value. I do agree he would appear to be above Gonzalez.

 

Edit: Following this same logic I could find Abreu lower on that list than #3 as well.

 

There is such a large drop off between Jones and the #3 person on the list. Honestly in terms of actual trade value, it might even be Jennings at #3 just based on how ridiculous trade values for relievers have gotten.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:18 PM)
My guess for rest of offseason:

Trade Q

Trade Robertson

 

Put Jones in as closer, Trade Jones at deadline.

 

Can't move melky for more than a salary dump. Sox need to make decision if Frazier return is better than a 2nd or 3rd round salary allotment.

 

I am in the camp that doesn't see the rest of the list of players after Nate Jones having much value. I think a lot of these guys are back next year because there is no line of teams that really wants to trade for them.

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I'd say...

 

Q

Abreu (maybe he's not an elite bat, but he's still dirt cheap for his production and under control)

Jones

Robertson

Gonzalez (it will take a desperate team close to or in ST but it's not like last year was his 1st taste of success and he's dirt cheap and under control)

Jennings (I don't think any GM is fooled into thinking he's anything more than a 2nd lefty)

Frazier

Melky

 

I think both Frazier and Melky are deadline deals. I really don't think any team is lining up for either right now given the free agents still available.

 

 

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:50 PM)
I am in the camp that doesn't see the rest of the list of players after Nate Jones having much value. I think a lot of these guys are back next year because there is no line of teams that really wants to trade for them.

Because I don't see their values going up, I'm in the camp that you have to trade Frazier at the least for whatever you get for him. If nothing else, we have a guy who can crew that position right now who I want to see play there for a full season. As much as I hate to say it, and mind you I HATE to say it, there's less motivation to move Cabrera because there's no one pushing that position who might be worth anything of value, so you might as well hold onto him and see if someone gets hurt on another team and they suddenly think he can fill in.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:50 PM)
I am in the camp that doesn't see the rest of the list of players after Nate Jones having much value. I think a lot of these guys are back next year because there is no line of teams that really wants to trade for them.

 

Same.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:03 PM)
Because I don't see their values going up, I'm in the camp that you have to trade Frazier at the least for whatever you get for him. If nothing else, we have a guy who can crew that position right now who I want to see play there for a full season. As much as I hate to say it, and mind you I HATE to say it, there's less motivation to move Cabrera because there's no one pushing that position who might be worth anything of value, so you might as well hold onto him and see if someone gets hurt on another team and they suddenly think he can fill in.

 

Melky I kind of doubt gets traded (and if he does, it'll be for some struggling reliever struggling in AAA or something like that).

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:03 PM)
Because I don't see their values going up, I'm in the camp that you have to trade Frazier at the least for whatever you get for him. If nothing else, we have a guy who can crew that position right now who I want to see play there for a full season. As much as I hate to say it, and mind you I HATE to say it, there's less motivation to move Cabrera because there's no one pushing that position who might be worth anything of value, so you might as well hold onto him and see if someone gets hurt on another team and they suddenly think he can fill in.

 

Come to think of it, Frazier will be 2nd or third best 3b on next market, so maybe likely he takes QO

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Everyone is undervaluing Frazier here...

 

He has a more than reasonable contract, and he's definitely not close to over the hill.

 

 

 

Sure, we can play some combination of Saladino, Davidson, Lawrie and Carlos Sanchez (4th option) there...but Saladino has been the only one who has shown a hint of being a major league regular, at least so far.

 

Lawrie (and Avi, to a lesser extent) are simply there to hold down the fort for Moncada and/or better things to come in the outfield.

 

As far as Melky goes, with that contract, he's much easier to trade with $6 million remaining and another solid/very good first half, but AL teams will still be more his limited market (due to his defensive shortcomings).

 

To summarize, Frazier is a much better defender with a fair contract at a much more important position. I'd put the odds of Frazier hitting .240-.260ish at a much higher level of probability than Cabrera repeating his offensive performance...and his defense is declining by the year.

 

 

He's probably not worth what Nate Jones is (due to the current over-inflated values of back-end relievers), but he's definitely ahead of Jennings/Gonzalez/Cabrera. And probably fairly close to Abreu, for teams in need of a nearly guaranteed offensive injection with a solid track record health-wise.

Edited by caulfield12

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Todd Frazier being a decent player is not the point.

 

Todd Frazier not being a solid upgrade from what any other team has at those positions, and Todd Frazier basically being paid his market value for a 1 year deal, is what makes Frazier worth very little in trade.

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A lot of these players are likelier to be more valuable in-season when the market is much smaller and contending teams are much more desperate.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:47 PM)
Todd Frazier being a decent player is not the point.

 

Todd Frazier not being a solid upgrade from what any other team has at those positions, and Todd Frazier basically being paid his market value for a 1 year deal, is what makes Frazier worth very little in trade.

this is why they should hold on to him for the deadline, when injuries can happen. He can be a decent replacement at 3B,1B or DH.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:47 PM)
Todd Frazier being a decent player is not the point.

 

Todd Frazier not being a solid upgrade from what any other team has at those positions, and Todd Frazier basically being paid his market value for a 1 year deal, is what makes Frazier worth very little in trade.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/po...ARBR/order/true

He had a similar value to Matt Carpenter and Javier Baez, essentially 12-14 in WAR.

 

Let's just put it this way, he was 14th out of 37 MLB players who had 300+ at-bats primarily at 3B. A season-ending injury to any of those Top 10 guys makes him extremely valuable.

 

Not to mention that Jose Ramirez and Turner have to prove they can repeat, Longoria has a huge contract and has been spotty the last 2-3 years overall (rebounded in 2016), Rendon's battled a ton of injuries with the Nationals and hasn't repeated his breakout season. Carpenter's supposedly moving to 1B, as well.

 

So you've got a clear Top 6 (or 7 if you include Turner), but any of those players 8-12 are pretty interchangeable.

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Alright Sox fans let's pick up the pace. This trade won't happen til 403 hits so 100 to go. Hurry, spam if you must! Ahhhhhh....

 

I think Seattle may have been mentioned pages ago but am I crazy for thinking Lewis, O'Neil, Neidert and Vogelbach would be a decent return? Eh, maybe I've spent too much time thinking about this s***.

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QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 10:00 PM)
A lot of these players are likelier to be more valuable in-season when the market is much smaller and contending teams are much more desperate.

I still think that this is being overly optimistic about teams having needs, but more importantly than that it still benches Saladino, which is exactly the opposite of what the White Sox should be doing. If the youngster can play he should be playing. Todd Frazier hitting 25 HR for the White Sox by the end of July is way less valuable than Saladino hitting 13.

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 09:00 PM)
this is why they should hold on to him for the deadline, when injuries can happen. He can be a decent replacement at 3B,1B or DH.

I think that's the best we can hope for at this point. If we can somehow get lucky and Frazier gets off to a good start an eager team might go after him in June.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:47 PM)
Todd Frazier being a decent player is not the point.

 

Todd Frazier not being a solid upgrade from what any other team has at those positions, and Todd Frazier basically being paid his market value for a 1 year deal, is what makes Frazier worth very little in trade.

Being paid his market value? What does WAR go for these days? $8M per win? If that's the case, market value would be $20M to $24M, which means he'll likely provide some surplus value. He'll also be one of the best 3B in free agency next year and should provide the acquiring team a pick if he leaves. I don't think a prospect in 75 to 125 range is unreasonable, but obviously there have to be teams with a hole at 3B.

 

It's really amazing how much people overreact to one down year. Frazier was a 4+ WAR player in both 2014 & 2015. He switches leagues and experiences a bizarre change in his batted ball profile and suddenly he's a 2.5 WAR player. Honestly, I don't buy it and think he will rebound to some extent. His 4+ WAR days may be over, but I still think he'll be a 3+ WAR next year. And if a team won't pay for that player now, I'll happily hold onto him until deadline and get it then.

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Alright Sox fans let's pick up the pace. This trade won't happen til 403 hits so 100 to go. Hurry, spam if you must! Ahhhhhh....

 

I think Seattle may have been mentioned pages ago but am I crazy for thinking Lewis, O'Neil, Neidert and Vogelbach would be a decent return? Eh, maybe I've spent too much time thinking about this s***.

That would not be a good deal.

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