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Quintana Rumors: Round and round and round we go


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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 02:26 PM)
Are you at least going to claim to have "sources" to support this info? How can you possibly claim to know that the deal was a player short if you have no idea what any other team offered, or what the Sox asked for from Boston? The Sale deal was only light a prospect like Devers to fans on a message board who were unrealistic to begin with.

 

The hyping of our assets is getting out of hand. I haven't seen a single publication call our return for Sale anything short of fair, with some saying it was a slight overpay on Boston's part.

 

The reality of the situation now with Quintana is that there only a handful of organizations that can afford to pay what we are asking for and if they simply decide not to, we aren't getting it. If that is the case, Hahn has a choice to compromise, or keep him. Hahn has done a good job assessing the whole market, dropping some leaks on rich farm systems (HOU/NYY/PIT), and hopefully he can get something done.

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My reaction to the Gammons-reported Astros proposal was basically this:

 

1. I'm surprised the Sox would bring that offer to the table

 

2. I'm surprised the Astros would say no to it

 

3. It wouldn't shock me or enrage me if that was basically the return, though I considered it on the lower end of the possibilities.

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QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 02:32 PM)
Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien 22s22 seconds ago

I don't believe #WhiteSox are motivated to move Jose Quintana by spring training. Heard they'll trade him if price is right whenever that is

 

Whatever, I dont believe anything I read right now. Their will come a day when a rumor pops up out of nowhere like it always does which will then gain steam and BAM trade done all in one day.

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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 02:26 PM)
Are you at least going to claim to have "sources" to support this info? How can you possibly claim to know that the deal was a player short if you have no idea what any other team offered, or what the Sox asked for from Boston? The Sale deal was only light a prospect like Devers to fans on a message board who were unrealistic to begin with.

At first glance the trade does look to be a player lite but I think it's because the money it cost to sign Moncada is not factored in. It cost Boston 31.5M to sign Moncada and paid an additional 31.5M in penalties. I think the missing player(s) in the Sale trade is the 31.5M it did not cost the Sox to acquire Moncada.

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Bryan Hoch of MLB.com writes that the Yankees continue to have dialogue with the White Sox about left-hander Jose Quintana.

The Yankees haven't been willing to meet the understandable high asking price for Quintana thus far, but Hoch notes that pitching is the priority as the club prepares for spring training. "I think we'll stay engaged in the marketplace, and over time, if we do match up favorably with anybody where we can get what we want and they get what they want, then yes, we'll try to pull something down," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said on MLB Network. In addition to discussing Quintana, Hoch notes that the Yankees have shown at least some level of interest in free agent right-hander Jason Hammel. As of now, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, and CC Sabathia are the only pitchers who will go into spring training assured of rotation spots with New York.

Source: Yankees.mlb.com

Jan 4 - 3:39 PM

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/6843/jose-quintana

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QUOTE (rowand's rowdies @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:03 PM)
Bryan Hoch of MLB.com writes that the Yankees continue to have dialogue with the White Sox about left-hander Jose Quintana.

The Yankees haven't been willing to meet the understandable high asking price for Quintana thus far, but Hoch notes that pitching is the priority as the club prepares for spring training. "I think we'll stay engaged in the marketplace, and over time, if we do match up favorably with anybody where we can get what we want and they get what they want, then yes, we'll try to pull something down," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said on MLB Network. In addition to discussing Quintana, Hoch notes that the Yankees have shown at least some level of interest in free agent right-hander Jason Hammel. As of now, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, and CC Sabathia are the only pitchers who will go into spring training assured of rotation spots with New York.

Source: Yankees.mlb.com

Jan 4 - 3:39 PM

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/6843/jose-quintana

 

 

Actual article from Yankees website

 

http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/article/2127...itching-market/

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For some reason reading about the Yankees valuing their prospects more than the big names made me think back to when I was a teenager and that was the complete opposite.

 

Is it because of the metrics that have been established that teams are more confident in prospect success (more valued as future assets to the org) and there is less of a roll of the dice as it used to be when talent evaluators went off of a couple stats and did mostly everything by the eye test? Why havent I connected the dots with this before now?! I am an idiot!

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QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:22 PM)
For some reason reading about the Yankees valuing their prospects more than the big names made me think back to when I was a teenager and that was the complete opposite.

 

Is it because of the metrics that have been established that teams are more confident in prospect success (more valued as future assets to the org) and there is less of a roll of the dice as it used to be when talent evaluators went off of a couple stats and did mostly everything by the eye test? Why havent I connected the dots with this before now?! I am an idiot!

 

I don't know specifically, probably some combination of those, and even then, prospects still fail. Soler looked for all intents and purposes like a slam dunk and he's been anything but. I'd say it's more about risk mitigation while having a better grasp on future value.

 

The Yankees seem like the most likely candidate in all of this though. The Astros have enough young guys they can try and throw into the fire and their top of the rotation is OK, the Pirates seem to be teetering on the edge of competing and rebuilding, and the Braves don't seem like they are far enough along in their process to include the quality assets that the Sox would require. The Yankees have a fairly good team who would value the contract and use it as a way to get under the luxury tax far enough to be competitive for Harper and Machado in the coming years.

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QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:22 PM)
For some reason reading about the Yankees valuing their prospects more than the big names made me think back to when I was a teenager and that was the complete opposite.

 

Is it because of the metrics that have been established that teams are more confident in prospect success (more valued as future assets to the org) and there is less of a roll of the dice as it used to be when talent evaluators went off of a couple stats and did mostly everything by the eye test? Why havent I connected the dots with this before now?! I am an idiot!

 

I think it's probably more their post 2009 slow decline of teixera, ellsbury, sabathia, etc that they just needed a change. That and we already know that yank fans have preordered harper jerseys. This is a temporary reset.

 

If you want solace, the yanks in any other year would not have had the farm to even think about Quintana.

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QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 02:36 PM)
Whatever, I dont believe anything I read right now. Their will come a day when a rumor pops up out of nowhere like it always does which will then gain steam and BAM trade done all in one day.

 

Exactly. I'm not reading into anything until something is done.

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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:44 PM)
At first glance the trade does look to be a player lite but I think it's because the money it cost to sign Moncada is not factored in. It cost Boston 31.5M to sign Moncada and paid an additional 31.5M in penalties. I think the missing player(s) in the Sale trade is the 31.5M it did not cost the Sox to acquire Moncada.

 

What you and a lot of people aren't getting tho is that the sellers never sets the market value. We as fans and even the front office of the Sox can put whatever value on Sale/Q we want, but if no team meets that price it's just an imaginary value. Value is set by the buying teams. Boston's offer was exactly what Sale's value was...obviously because that's the deal we took making it the best offer on the table. Not to mention saying that the deal was a top 20 prospect "light" is absolutely ridiculous.

Edited by TheFutureIsNear
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QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:22 PM)
For some reason reading about the Yankees valuing their prospects more than the big names made me think back to when I was a teenager and that was the complete opposite.

 

Is it because of the metrics that have been established that teams are more confident in prospect success (more valued as future assets to the org) and there is less of a roll of the dice as it used to be when talent evaluators went off of a couple stats and did mostly everything by the eye test? Why havent I connected the dots with this before now?! I am an idiot!

 

I think it has to do a lot with the crack down on PED's. Players were performing well deep into their 30's 15 years ago, now the drop off is a lot more pronounced and is occurring closer to a players age 30 season. There is not a lot of benefit in spending a ton in free agency now, knowing that the back half of whatever deal you sign is basically going to be dead money as many players are not reaching FA until they are near 30.

 

So instead teams are hoarding younger players and rolling the dice that they can develop a solid core and then fill in gaps through FA or augment in the trade market when the team is lined up for a title run. Right now it seems like a lot of teams are taking a shotgun approach and just trying to amass as much young talent as possible as it seems less of a risk than gambling on veteran talent.

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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:43 PM)
What you and a lot of people aren't getting tho is that the buyer never sets the market value. We as fans and even the front office of the Sox can put whatever value on Sale/Q we want, but if no team meets that price it's just an imaginary value. Value is set by the buying teams. Boston's offer was exactly what Sale's value was...obviously because that's the deal we took making it the best offer on the table. Not to mention saying that the deal was a top 20 prospect "light" is absolutely ridiculous.

 

Actually, the buyers always set the market. If there is no one willing to pay the price, there is no market and if you have several willing to meet your price, the market is driven upward.

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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 05:43 PM)
What you and a lot of people aren't getting tho is that the buyer never sets the market value. We as fans and even the front office of the Sox can put whatever value on Sale/Q we want, but if no team meets that price it's just an imaginary value. Value is set by the buying teams. Boston's offer was exactly what Sale's value was...obviously because that's the deal we took making it the best offer on the table. Not to mention saying that the deal was a top 20 prospect "light" is absolutely ridiculous.

I think you need some editing here because I was a little lost and I think I realize why.

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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:43 PM)
What you and a lot of people aren't getting tho is that the buyer never sets the market value. We as fans and even the front office of the Sox can put whatever value on Sale/Q we want, but if no team meets that price it's just an imaginary value. Value is set by the buying teams. Boston's offer was exactly what Sale's value was...obviously because that's the deal we took making it the best offer on the table. Not to mention saying that the deal was a top 20 prospect "light" is absolutely ridiculous.

I'm a bit confused by your post. Are you saying the buying team does or does not set the market?

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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 04:43 PM)
What you and a lot of people aren't getting tho is that the buyer never sets the market value. We as fans and even the front office of the Sox can put whatever value on Sale/Q we want, but if no team meets that price it's just an imaginary value. Value is set by the buying teams. Boston's offer was exactly what Sale's value was...obviously because that's the deal we took making it the best offer on the table. Not to mention saying that the deal was a top 20 prospect "light" is absolutely ridiculous.

 

Assuming you meant to say the SELLER never sets the market. If so, you are totally right.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 11:11 AM)
Meh. RH has said this is going to take time. He is not going to settle on his 2nd best trade chip that has four years of cheap control. He just won't. He'll get what he wants this offseason, or wait until he does.

 

Fine with me. I don't need to see a trade being made just for the sake of a trade being made. I'll wait. Get the haul RH!

 

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QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 02:33 PM)
The hyping of our assets is getting out of hand. I haven't seen a single publication call our return for Sale anything short of fair, with some saying it was a slight overpay on Boston's part.

 

The reality of the situation now with Quintana is that there only a handful of organizations that can afford to pay what we are asking for and if they simply decide not to, we aren't getting it. If that is the case, Hahn has a choice to compromise, or keep him. Hahn has done a good job assessing the whole market, dropping some leaks on rich farm systems (HOU/NYY/PIT), and hopefully he can get something done.

The main problem (which I was guilty of) is it's hard to comprehend the value of a super elite prospect like Moncada. I can guarantee you most GMs would consider him a top 30/40 asset in all of baseball despite only 20 poor plate appearances in the majors. Another factor is how much Kopech's stock improved over the course of the year and into the AFL. I think many of us still viewed him as a bottom half top 100 type and not a guy who is arguably one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game. Basabe is also criminally underrated and I myself am the first to admit how dissapointed I was at the time with him being the 3rd piece. Having said that, the more I read up on him the more I become enamored with his upside. Overall, I think it was a fairly even trade with no obvious day of winner.

Edited by Chicago White Sox
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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 06:42 PM)
The main problem (which I was guilty of) is it's hard to comprehend the value of a super elite prospect like Moncada. I can guarantee you most GMs would consider him a top 30/40 asset in all of baseball despite only 20 poor plate appearances in the majors. Another factor is how much Kopech's stock improved over the course of the year and into the AFL. I think many of us still viewed him as a bottom half top 100 type and not a guy who is arguably one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game. Basabe is also criminally underrated and I myself am the first to admit how dissapointed I was at the time with him being the 3rd piece. Having said that, the more I read up on him the more I become enamored with his upside. Overall, I think it was a fairly even trade with no obvious day of winner.

 

 

I tend to agree the gap between a guy like Glasnow and Kopech is not as big as many would think. Kopech stock went up with his performance in Arizaona Fall League. I expect him to be in the top 20 when the new rankings come out.

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QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:43 PM)
What you and a lot of people aren't getting tho is that the sellers never sets the market value. We as fans and even the front office of the Sox can put whatever value on Sale/Q we want, but if no team meets that price it's just an imaginary value. Value is set by the buying teams. Boston's offer was exactly what Sale's value was...obviously because that's the deal we took making it the best offer on the table. Not to mention saying that the deal was a top 20 prospect "light" is absolutely ridiculous.

 

 

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 05:08 PM)
Yeah that's what I meant. I managed to mess up the 1st sentence of the post somehow...

Thanks for clarifying. I do get that the buyers determine the value and in fact agree with it so we're on the same page.

 

I was just trying to point out that surplus value works both ways. Aside from Sale being a damn good pitcher, part of his trade value came from the surplus value of his contract. Similar for Moncada in that the Sox did not have to pay the money Boston spent to sign Moncada so that boosted Moncada's value. Heck, if the Sox offered to reimburse Boston for their investment it likely the Sox would have received another prospect of two. In the end I'm happy with the deal.

 

 

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QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 02:05 PM)
Nah the Sale deal was a player light. They should've been able to add Devers or EdRo (at least) to the deal they got and probably would have if they were reasonable with Boston at the deadline and not asking for Mookie Betts. Sale's value peaked at the deadline last year and unless he starts doing Kershaw things he'll never fully regain it. Sox, to their credit, didn't waste any time waiting for his value to deteriorate more and dealt him this offseason for probably 80ish% of what they would've gotten at the deadline. I'm not thrilled about it, but I'm not upset either. At least they didn't stubbornly stand firm another year and taken themselves out of the running for a Moncada-like headliner.

Since Bosox refused to include Devers, which surprised me, I have to think now that they might value him higher than Moncada. Regardless, I can't wait to see Basabe and Diaz just to see if DD hoodwinked RH. Hopefully, these two kids are the real deal.

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I keep seeing tweets about the Yankees and how they should 'hold onto' their prospects and go for it in a few years? Don't they know that Q is only 27 and has 4 years of contract control? Let's say they give up one of Torres/ Frazier and 2 more in their top 20, wouldn't they still be in great shape prospect wise moving forward? The kids on the main roster were knocking on the door for a wildcard spot last season. Can you imagine if they add Q to the mix this year? I don't know.... the Yankees are a perfect match for this Q trade. Now that Rosenthal tweeted out the Astros and Pirates as potential front runners, I wonder if Cashman panics and gives in?

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