2018 MLB Draft

[Dominikk85]

Gorman is very good but I wouldn't read too much into high school stats and neither will the teams. The average HS pitcher throws 75 and draftable athletes are way too much for them. Even tim Tebow hit .500 in high school, that is pretty normal for an elite athlete. So if Gorman hits .600 in high school, that won't give him huge helium, most drafted high schoolers do that, even if 10th rounders.

 

More interesting will be how he hits in elite national level showcases facing 90+.

 

That is not to talk him down, he is good, but it is pretty much expected that a first round draftee destroys high school pitching and teams won't get overly exited over high school stats.

 

Obviously you don't want him to suck but generally stats are less important for high schoolers than college players, they are more evaluated by tools. High schoolers don't get helium by dominating, they get helium by making a physical jump (say when a pitcher goes from 6"1 and 88 to 6"4 and 95).

 

Since Gorman is physically already pretty mature and already has big power and is projected to go top5-10 there isn't much room for helium. He likely already has about his max value now and can't do much more to increase it.

 

The helium will apply more to college performers and physically late blooming high schoolers who grow physically, a physically mature high schooler who already has performed usually won't increase or lose his value in his senior year unless he gets hurt.

Edited February 25, 2018 by GermanSock

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Officially broken.

 

Wonder how much that will affect his draft position.

[Chicago White Sox]

I don't think there is any consensus on any picks yet.

Obviously these rankings will all change as we get closer to the draft, but my question is if the draft were held today would Gorman be a consensus top 3 guy or could he possibly be available at #4?

[Dick Allen]

Wonder how much that will affect his draft position.

Unless some team was already sold he was a top 5 or so guy, probably enough to where some team will get a steal. That was my guy. All he needs is a little more power. He size might make teams balk, but there are several little guys with a bit of pop that are doing quite well.

[bmags]

Unless some team was already sold he was a top 5 or so guy, probably enough to where some team will get a steal. That was my guy. All he needs is a little more power. He size might make teams balk, but there are several little guys with a bit of pop that are doing quite well.

 

I don't think it will affect his stock too much. He'll still get to play a bit and he has so much tape on him.

[DirtySox]

I don't think it will affect his stock too much. He'll still get to play a bit and he has so much tape on him.

 

Yep. The prevalence of TrackMan data available on him certainly helps too. Kiley had a good quote on this.

 

It’s too early to do a mock draft that would amount to anything much greater than a collection of guesses (here’s the draft order, for reference), but something to monitor is the presence of those clubs that lean risk-averse/analytic/etc. in the top half of the first round. In light of certain trends within the game — and, in particular, what appears to be a greater interest in near-ready, low-end-regular types — this could push college players (and, specifically, college bats) up into the high first round. Both Oregon State and Missouri State have TrackMan units at their home parks, so clubs will have multiple years of data on Madrigal and Eierman to aid their evaluations. Hitters from Virginia have benefited in much the same way from strong, large-sample TrackMan data in recent drafts.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-draft-r...-2019-and-2020/

 

With the White Sox certainly fitting under the "risk averse/analytic" tag, it makes me think Madrigal would still absolutely be in play. Especially if you could leverage the injury into some cost savings for later picks.

[DirtySox]

Forgot to post this yesterday. Kiley still sees him as a top 5 to 10 guy.

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

Sources: Oregon State 2B Nick Madrigal has a broken wrist and will be out 3-4 weeks. Is seen in the industry as the top college hitter in the draft and still has a good chance to go in the top 5-10 picks in June.

 

[DirtySox]

Teddy Cahill

@tedcahill

Updating Travis Swaggerty's line through eight games: .321/.537/.714, three homers, 11 walks, five strikeouts. That's a 1.251 OPS

 

 

Carlos Collazo

@CarlosACollazo

Swaggerty's draft stock: 🚀🚀🚀

Edited February 27, 2018 by DirtySox

[caulfield12]

Teddy Cahill

@tedcahill

Updating Travis Swaggerty's line through eight games: .321/.537/.714, three homers, 11 walks, five strikeouts. That's a 1.251 OPS

 

 

Carlos Collazo

@CarlosACollazo

Swaggerty's draft stock: 🚀🚀🚀

 

Benintendi comp? Happ? Jeremy Reed, haha? Jim Edmonds?

 

What’s his defensive scouting report?

[SoxAce]

Teddy Cahill

@tedcahill

Updating Travis Swaggerty's line through eight games: .321/.537/.714, three homers, 11 walks, five strikeouts. That's a 1.251 OPS

 

 

Carlos Collazo

@CarlosACollazo

Swaggerty's draft stock: 🚀🚀🚀

 

Ok Dirty, ok... I've got an eye on him now.

[GenericUserName]

Benintendi comp? Happ? Jeremy Reed, haha? Jim Edmonds?

 

What’s his defensive scouting report?

 

He should definitely be able to stay in center long term. I would say at least plus speed and maybe more. Haven't hear anything on his arm, so its probably around average.

[DirtySox]

Ok Dirty, ok... I've got an eye on him now.

 

Swaggerty is bae.

[Jack Parkman]

With Burger's injury, my draft wish list has gone to 1. Gorman 2. McClanahan. 3. I don't really care because I like the 1st two guys so much that I'll be really disappointed if neither are there.

[southsider2k5]

Draft strategy shouldn't change base on a MiLB player injury. Really it shouldn't change based on any injury.

[bmags]

my preferences remain for #4

1. super athletic middle infielder (hs/college)

2. power HS infielder

3. literally top college pitcher

4. HS outfielder

5. College outfielder

6. HS pitcher

[Jack Parkman]

Draft strategy shouldn't change base on a MiLB player injury. Really it shouldn't change based on any injury.

I had concerns he was going to stick at 3rd anyway, and the Sox really don't have any 3B in their system. I was high on Gorman anyway, but was moving toward McClanahan. It just flip flopped the order on those two guys for me.

[fathom]

Swaggerty went 2-2 double and 3 walks vs Auburn tonight. He's my top guy right now. Also interesting to see Beer with a mediocre average again. It's still very early, but his hit tool just seems to be very blah

[SoxAce]

Also interesting to see Beer with a mediocre average again. It's still very early, but his hit tool just seems to be very blah

 

Let's hope he continues to drop. Would love to see us snag him with our second round pick (though that's probably slim)

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Still rooting for Gorman (Kelenic if Gorman has been drafted) as our 1st RD pick, Beer or Gray Jr as our 2nd RD pick.

[fathom]

Still rooting for Gorman (Kelenic if Gorman has been drafted) as our 1st RD pick, Beer or Gray Jr as our 2nd RD pick.

 

Isn't A. Thomas a huge favorite as the 2nd round pick?

[Y2Jimmy0]

Isn't A. Thomas a huge favorite as the 2nd round pick?

 

I hope so. I'm not sure they can push him there though.

[bmags]

The only time I remember a "favorite" of ours happening was probably Burdi in the last few years.

[DirtySox]

Kiley chat going on. Some draft questions within for those interested.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-2-28-18/

[GenericUserName]

Kiley chat going on. Some draft questions within for those interested.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-2-28-18/

Some highlights for anyone who don't want to read through the whole thing:

Waltharius

12:03 Is there any update on Hankins’ injury?

Kiley McDaniel

12:04 Not really. It's shoulder soreness, as expected and also rumored before the start where he walked off the mound. He'll rehab it and probably be fine. Hopefully is back on the mound in like a month or two and has some time to prove he's healthy. Don't think it's a long-term thing.

Trevor

12:06 What’s Madrigal’s MLB ETA? 2020?

Kiley McDaniel

12:07 Maybe 2019. The little dudes reach mature quickly, the opposite of big lumbering sluggers that usually take some time to sync everything. I could see him go in the top 5-10 picks, sign, go to full season ball, then instructs/AFL. Start in Hi-A in 2019 and if he keeps hitting and the team needs a 2B, be up at the end of the year. This is a big reason why clubs are on him: high floor, will move quickly, standout tools in bat control/speed/defense.

Draft Junkie

12:24 Any fresh news on Nolan Gorman and is he still in the running for the top pick for the Tigers?

Kiley McDaniel

12:24 He still rakes and yes

That Guy in Detroit

12:35 I've seen Kelenic as high as #10 in projected drafts. Do you think there is a way he moves higher?

Kiley McDaniel

12:36 I think 8-12 is about as high as he can get. This draft has a lot of depth. We keep our rankings updated (privately) and after the top group of 10-11 guys, there's almost another 20 that seems to be in a tier. That's unusual at this stage, but probably also follows that there isn't a clear top player, either. And obviously things will be different on draft day and even more different 10 years from now

Ron Swanson's Mustache

12:39 How much has Travis Swaggerty helped his stock in the first few weeks of the season? Think he could be in play for ATL at 8?

Kiley McDaniel

12:39 He's one of the guys that's moving up. More than a few teams have him in the top 10. Could be a fit there.

Mike

12:42 If Travis Swaggerty continues to hit anywhere near this level the rest of the way (OBP + more pop), does he sneak into the discussion at the top of the draft?

Kiley McDaniel

12:43 Probably not the top 5, but I could see him going 6-10

Eric

12:43 Over the weekend on Twitter you said McClanahan, Gorman, Liberatore, Hankins, and Singer were all the guys in the running to go 1-1. No more high school and no college bats? Madrigal? Conine? Kelenic?

Kiley McDaniel

12:46 I definitely didn't say that. If you define it as anyone with a chance to go 1-1, the group is like 10 guys right now. If you mean the favorites if the draft was today, there's a top tier of 4 at the moment, from what I've gathered: Gorman, McClanahan, Madrigal, Rolison, with Rolison seeming to be the last of that group but trending up. Singer has been well below his best self this spring and that becomes more worrisome when his delivery/slot is a little unusual and him not signing due to a physical issue out of HS.

The first three make sense and I've been hearing a lot about them, but Rolison is kind of a surprise.

WarBiscuit

12:58 Thoughts on Casey Mize?

Kiley McDaniel

12:58 Also rising, more than a few teams have him in the top 10. If he stays healthy all year and the medical checks out, he's probably going top 10.

Nate

12:59 Does Madrigal have the arm to move to third or is his future up the middle?

Kiley McDaniel

1:00 Plus defensively at 2B, can play a fill-in SS. Could probably play any position but no reason to.

Nate

1:00 How concerning is Madrigal's injury?

Kiley McDaniel

1:00 Not very. The only real weakness to his game is power and now when he comes back you can always say there's more coming.

Edited February 28, 2018 by GenericUserName

[DirtySox]

Some highlights for anyone who don't want to read through the whole thing:

 

The first three make sense and I've been hearing a lot about them, but Rolison is kind of a surprise.

 

Rolison has been pretty dominant. Seems to have a pretty high floor, but not the ceiling of someone like McClanahan. Not my choice at 4, but i can understand the reasoning. I'd certainly prefer him to someone like Singer at this point.