2018 MLB Draft

[DirtySox]

Another 3B? They just drafted a 3B. I mean if they think he's the next Robin Ventura or something, sure. I'm still hoping for Madrigal or McClanahan at this point.

 

To be honest, I was never quite sold on Burger. At least not as a long term 3B. Losing a year of development hurts a bit too. Bohm seems to be much more highly regarded at this point as well. Though I'm still awaiting more of a consensus on his defensive acumen.

[GenericUserName]

To be honest, I was never quite sold on Burger. At least not as a long term 3B. Losing a year of development hurts a bit too. Bohm seems to be much more highly regarded at this point as well. Though I'm still awaiting more of a consensus on his defensive acumen.

Well so far in his career he has posted fielding percentages of .859 | .959 | .925

I know fielding percentage isn't a great measure, but he is pretty consistently low (the second year was probably inflated by playing ~20% of his games at first base) and he doesn't look great on video. I also don't really understand why everyone is talking about him having massive power when he has put up good power numbers, but nothing spectacular. Unless its something they see and think they can change to bring out more power, but that seems like added risk to such a high pick.

[steveno89]

Well so far in his career he has posted fielding percentages of .859 | .959 | .925

I know fielding percentage isn't a great measure, but he is pretty consistently low (the second year was probably inflated by playing ~20% of his games at first base) and he doesn't look great on video. I also don't really understand why everyone is talking about him having massive power when he has put up good power numbers, but nothing spectacular. Unless its something they see and think they can change to bring out more power, but that seems like added risk to such a high pick.

 

Did not read far back to see if this was discussed, but how are we not all over Casey Mize with the amazing season he is having?

 

47 ip 25 h 11 er 4 hr 3 bb 70 k's

 

2.11 ERA 0.60 WHIP

 

He might not even be there at #4 overall at this point

 

Shane McClanahan is also havign a very strong season, along with Brady Singer

 

I know most of us want to see a SS or a bat, but I would strongly consider adding another high end arm to our system.

Edited April 4, 2018 by steveno89

[Lillian]

That K rate is closer to 10% than 13%. If he keeps hitting, he could be Pavin Smith with raw power potential by the end of the year, and that would certainly push him back up draft boards.

 

Is the strike out rate calculated as a percentage of plate appearances, rather than "at bats"? If so, you are correct. In any case, that's impressive, relative to his home run rate.

[bmags]

I'd be really thrilled with Mize, just don't think he's there.

 

McClanahan is nice, just don't really want a TJ guy.

 

There are also just a lot of high school pitchers that are quality, and not so many position players. So it's a question of getting the top of a pretty stocked class, or getting the top of a weak class.

[bmags]

Is the strike out rate calculated as a percentage of plate appearances, rather than "at bats"? If so, you are correct. In any case, that's impressive, relative to his home run rate.

 

Strike out rate is by PAs, not ABs. He had just as much of a chance to k when he walked as when he hit or ground out, so PA is more accurate.

[steveno89]

I'd be really thrilled with Mize, just don't think he's there.

 

McClanahan is nice, just don't really want a TJ guy.

 

There are also just a lot of high school pitchers that are quality, and not so many position players. So it's a question of getting the top of a pretty stocked class, or getting the top of a weak class.

 

It seems like arms are going to be the top of this class, we should not be foolish and reach for a lesser player out of need. With a top 5 pick we should take the best talent.

[GenericUserName]

It seems like arms are going to be the top of this class, we should not be foolish and reach for a lesser player out of need. With a top 5 pick we should take the best talent.

Yeah, but I think most feel at this point that Mize will be gone by our pick. There is a ton of talk connecting him to the Tigers and maybe more connecting Liberatore to the Giants, so we're kind of talking about other guys. Don't get infatuated with someone we probably aren't going to get.

[bmags]

It seems like arms are going to be the top of this class, we should not be foolish and reach for a lesser player out of need. With a top 5 pick we should take the best talent.

 

I think people throw around BPA in the mlb draft as if there is way more certainty around it then there is.

 

 

[GenericUserName]

Guest

12:07 Thoughts on Jordan Adams stock after NHSI?

Kiley McDaniel

12:09 As I tweeted, he was the big winner of the event from a scouting perspective. Top 100 football recruit as a wide receiver, 80 runner, averageish arm and raw power, real twitchy. Swing kinda like Kyle Lewis, actions sorta like Royce Lewis or Byron Buxton. Important to note he's more of a 2nd rounder right now since as recently as a few weeks ago scouts saw him and thought he looked rough. So this is all brand new, but he picked the right event to show out since over 100 scouts were there.

Bob

12:20 Your thoughts on Swaggerty after seeing him in Atlanta.

Kiley McDaniel

12:21 Also in the article that's in the editor's hands. I got a terrible look. He was off balance in every AB, went 0 for 6 when his team scored 11 runs, then the second game got rained out. He's still a top 10 pick, just not running hot right now.

Alan

12:21 Alec Bohm. Is the hype real? Top 5 guy? Can he stick at 3rd long term?

Kiley McDaniel

12:21 Yes, Yes, Yes

Greg

12:24 Is it too early to connect teams to players? Any White Sox draft inklings?

Kiley McDaniel

12:26 Nope, we are hearing some stuff along those lines at this point, but still early to have decent intel on each team. Hearing college bat for the White Sox, they really like Swaggerty.

Bravesy McBravesface

12:27 Do you think Ethan Hankins' quick pace is gimmicky? Is his stuff playing up because of the pace he pitches with, or is it that good regardless?

Kiley McDaniel

12:27 Stuff was really good last summer, been a little less this spring but he's been banged up and it's been cold/rainy in a few of his starts. It's gimmicky and useless for some guys, it seems like he has better than usual feel for it

Raj

12:35 How do you rate Connor Scott? How does he compare to Kyle Tucker as a HS prospect?

Kiley McDaniel

12:36 I am also in on Connor Scott. Probably 10-15 overall right now. Here's more info on him

Bravesy McBravesface

12:45 I've seen Kumar Rocker's name popping back up a lot lately when talking about the top prep pitchers this year. Has he done anything this spring to raise his draft stock?

Kiley McDaniel

12:45 He's throwing hard, his slider is dirty and he's throwing strikes, sounds like he's in better shape too. So, yes.

Jesse

12:52 Thoughts on Liberatore's changeup and new slider/cutter? Based on my viewing (via streaming), it appeared he threw a mid-80s (84-85 mph) slider/slider. The pitch had different movement than his low-80s (80-81) changeup.

Kiley McDaniel

12:52 Change flashed 55, slider was inconsistent but flashed solid avg in mid 80's

Bravesy McBravesface

12:57 Why is Liberatore considered the top prep pitcher in the draft by most outlets? It seems like his inability to hold his velocity and the recent advances made by other pitchers like Stewart, Hankins, Denaburg, Winn, etc. have made that picture murkier. Are teams banking on him maintaining the velo later into his outings with some professional development?

Kiley McDaniel

1:00 Liberatore is a more of a 50-55 now stuff, projects for more, above average command prototypical prep arm type, when his first outing (just a couple innings) may have created the expectation he was 93-97 with a plus hook for longer outings when in reality he's backed up a little bit each start since then. My earlier answer that the top tier of prep arms is jumbled is more the current opinion. If you saw Kumar Rocker sit 94-96 with a 65 slider and throw strikes, then saw Liberatore 90-92 with a 55 curveball for all but one inning at NHSI, it's hard for physical projection to close that gap, hence those guys all being ranked differently depending on who you ask.

Edited April 4, 2018 by GenericUserName

[bmags]

Kiley specifically may now have better info sources to pull on fresh out of a front office, but after last 2 years I don't really trust that people have good gauges on sox draft preferences.

 

I mean, what we'd think at this point would be:

- Emphasis on advanced approach at plate with power

- Tend to pick from schools with trackman/statcast data

- Confident they can get average defensive players to stick in more valuable positions

- Value college relievers

- Power arms? Can't tell if this is real or just a factor of going after relievers

 

But what theoretically we should also expect this year:

- A shift toward younger players as we have been very college heavy and Hostetler has mentioned as such

- A move away from college outfielders where we have a huge bottleneck

 

but would these tendencies show up in the first pick? Who knows. (College relievers, for instance, would not)

[DirtySox]

Seems Kiley answered my questions. Plus this one.

 

Al

12:22 Jonathan India. Do we buy in yet? Where do you see him being selected at this point?

 

Kiley McDaniel

12:22 Also in the article with the editor. He's got helium, cleaned up the body, profiles at 3B and is really hitting. First day guy now.

[GenericUserName]

Kiley specifically may now have better info sources to pull on fresh out of a front office, but after last 2 years I don't really trust that people have good gauges on sox draft preferences.

 

I mean, what we'd think at this point would be:

- Emphasis on advanced approach at plate with power

- Tend to pick from schools with trackman/statcast data

- Confident they can get average defensive players to stick in more valuable positions

- Value college relievers

- Power arms? Can't tell if this is real or just a factor of going after relievers

 

But what theoretically we should also expect this year:

- A shift toward younger players as we have been very college heavy and Hostetler has mentioned as such

- A move away from college outfielders where we have a huge bottleneck

 

but would these tendencies show up in the first pick? Who knows. (College relievers, for instance, would not)

I wouldn't be surprised or upset if we went college bat with the first pick (even if it is OF), but then go HS heavy in the other rounds. It would get us a good mix of security with the college bat (with potential bonus savings), but also upside with HS guys that have some holes but also some good tools.

[bmags]

I would be surprised if we went College OFer, I wouldn't necessarily upset if they are clearly awesome.

[DirtySox]

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

13m

Opinions still mixed on Turang, up and down this spring. Finished strong at NHSI, maybe he’s turning the corner

[Chicago White Sox]

How would people feel about Alec Bohm & Alek Thomas with our first two picks?

[DirtySox]

How would people feel about Alec Bohm & Alek Thomas with our first two picks?

 

Yes please.

[Dunt]

How would people feel about Alec Bohm & Alek Thomas with our first two picks?

 

I would love it

[maggsmaggs]

How would people feel about Alec Bohm & Alek Thomas with our first two picks?

Would have to hear better reports about his defense at third base. I believe the Fangraphs guys have said he can stay there, but I need others to confirm. For instance, while a pre-season evaluation, MLB Pipeline does not have a glowing report about either his arm or fielding and predicts he winds up at first base.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Would have to hear better reports about his defense at third base. I believe the Fangraphs guys have said he can stay there, but I need others to confirm. For instance, while a pre-season evaluation, MLB Pipeline does not have a glowing report about either his arm or fielding and predicts he winds up at first base.

 

I know this is somewhat typical, since most HS players play premium positions, and even good college players tend to play in the more athletic positions due to relative team skill, but man, it would be nice to draft a top college position player that doesn't have doubts about having to move to 1B, or are already being relegated to 1st. Would be nice to draft a slam dunk 3B or C or SS or CF who didn't have any doubts about sticking at the position. Obviously to do that, you may be giving up some bat profile, but at the #4 pick in the draft, I don't want a guy who could lose a ton of defensive value so easily.

 

I'm not saying I'm against Bohm, but it would make me feel so, so much better to hear he has a very good chance to stick at 3B.

Edited April 4, 2018 by ChiliIrishHammock24

[DirtySox]

Some draft items from Keith Law's chat today.

 

Beth

1:09 Who's your top HS pitcher right now?

 

Keith Law

1:10 I'm almost afraid to give you a name because they all seem to get hurt. It's probably Carter Stewart at the moment over Grayson Rodriguez or Cole Winn (lower upside, way more polished). Ethan Hankins is back but I'm told he hasn't been top-of-draft good since he returned. Liberatore has been fine, not up to 97 like he was in his first outing, but I think he's still top 15 picks good. Matt Vasel's season just started - he's a cold weather name to watch.

 

Beth

1:19 Is Casey Mize going 1?

 

Keith Law

1:20 I think he would, today, if his medicals are OK. There is a rumor running around that he's got an elbow issue, but I don't really see how anyone could know that since he hasn't sent medicals to teams yet and the MLB top 200 MRI deal hasn't happened yet, so if you see people talking about his elbow, bear in mind that it's not really possible to source that, and it's either pure speculation or someone trying to talk Mize down.

 

Carl

1:28 It’s early, but as of now, in your opinion who has the highest ceiling for the Tigers to choose #1 overall?

 

Keith Law

1:28 Mize is clearly the best guy in the class. If it's not him, for whatever reason, then the Tigers should probably identify 3-4 guys they rank at the top and see who'll take the best deal so they can go over slot at their next pick (there are a lot of HS arms this year who'll be perfect for that).

 

Pat

2:00 Is Kelenic an option for Detroit at 1-1? If you had 1-1, would you take best player or one of 3-4 guys that will sign for the least?

 

Keith Law

2:02 I know he's among the guys they have on their short (long?) list, and they had him in for a workout in Lakeland. But I think he's played exactly one game this spring, so I don't know how anyone could decide he's 1-1 at this point (and I know you're not saying that). I would do what I said above - if Mize checks out, he's the best player and you take him, and if not, you shop the deal.

 

Larry

2:10 Can Jonathan India work his way into the first round?

 

Keith Law

2:12 Into the back, maybe. I think there's some serious overreaction (!) right now to a hot few weeks. He was terrible last year as a sophomore for a potential high pick a year later, and I don't think he has a lot of upside.

 

Bort

2:14 Where are you at on Alex Bohm? Can he stay at third?

 

Keith Law

2:15 Maybe - has the arm, not a bad athlete, just BIG. Love the swing, definitely think he's a top 20 pick on merit, even before we get to the inflation college hitters get on draft day.

 

Alan

2:18 Swaggerty seemed to cooled off since a hot start. Still a top guy? Any concerns?

 

Keith Law

2:19 Needs to start hitting again, but if he does, he goes top 5. True CF, 65 runner, few if any college bats in the middle of the field this year. That's going to run Joey Bart up the board, maybe to the top ten, because he's a catcher and there are so few college catchers in this draft.

 

Alan

2:18 Is Bohm a top 5 guy? Seems to have some helium.

 

Keith Law

2:18 He could go there, but I think that's too rich.

 

Teeb

2:21 Thoughts on the Pompeys: Does Dalton ever become a guy and where's Tristan getting picked?

 

Keith Law

2:21 Tristan somewhere in the 20-40 range. Dalton, ship might have sailed there.

Edited April 5, 2018 by DirtySox

[GenericUserName]

Some draft items from Keith Law's chat today.

So compared to the Fangraphs guys he is (or has heard):

-lower on Hankins, Liberatore, Bohm, India

-higher on Kelenic, Swaggerty, Rodriguez, Stewart, Winn

-about the same on Mize, Bart, Pompey

[DirtySox]

Kiley on a bunch of draft prospects including Bohm, Swaggerty, and India.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-man...raft-prospects/

Edited April 6, 2018 by DirtySox

[GenericUserName]

Kiley on a bunch of draft prospects including Bohm, Swaggerty, and India.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/far-too-man...raft-prospects/

Why do I feel like the team in the top 5 that thinks Swaggerty is the best bat in the draft is us? Really wouldn't be mad about either him or Bohm at this point.

[DirtySox]

Why do I feel like the team in the top 5 that thinks Swaggerty is the best bat in the draft is us? Really wouldn't be mad about either him or Bohm at this point.

 

Sounds plausible. He did mention Swaggerty in response to my White Sox draft connection question yesterday.