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2018 MLB Draft


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I would be really happy with Bohm. I'm not sure I buy the certainty around position changes. Look at players like matt carpenter. When you need them to play third they'll play third, and use shifting to minimize the damage. 

 

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14 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Like Bohm as well. Am a fan of guys who have good BB/K rate in consecutive years in college, not just one outliner. 

As I've gotten deeper into evaluating how college talent will translate to the pro level, I think this is typically a pretty good indicator.

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I'm just glad the Reds won that last game of the 2017 season and Sox were able to keep the 4th pick. I feel much better with the Sox picking between Bohm and Madrigal rather than Singer and Swaggerty,etc.

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50 minutes ago, 35thstreetswarm said:

The Athletic mock draft goes Mize, Bart, Madrigal, Bohm, Singer, which lines up with my prediction/fear.  I’m not sure why Philly passes on Madrigal, no matter what Law says.

Wouldn't be upset with Bohm, but from everything we have been reading lately, the Phillies are enamored with him. Will see what other mocks think this week, but I feel like the Athletic is the outlier here.

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Just now, DirtySox said:

Yep.  It's a very safe demographic. BA had an article about it this week.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/numbers-game-third-is-the-word/

Quote

 

College Third Basemen Taken With A Top-10 Pick Since 1987
Year No. Team Player College MLB Pos ASG GG OPS+ WAR
1988 10 White Sox Robin Ventura Oklahoma State 3B 2 6 114 56.1
1992 1 Astros Phil Nevin Cal State Fullerton 3B 1 114 15.9
1994 4 Brewers Antone Williamson Arizona State 1B 35 -0.8
1997 3 Angels Troy Glaus UCLA 3B 4 119 38
1998 1 Phillies Pat Burrell Miami LF 116 18.9
2001 5 Rangers Mark Teixeira Georgia Tech 1B 3 5 126 51.8
2005 2 Royals Alex Gordon Nebraska LF 3 5 105 33.3
2005 4 Nationals Ryan Zimmerman Virginia 3B 2 1 116 36.8
2005 5 Brewers Ryan Braun Miami LF 6 137 45.1
2006 3 Rays Evan Longoria Long Beach State 3B 3 3 125 50.4
2008 2 Pirates Pedro Alvarez Vanderbilt 3B 1 108 6.8
2011 6 Nationals Anthony Rendon Rice 3B 117 17.3
2013 2 Cubs Kris Bryant San Diego 3B 2 143 21.4
2013 6 Marlins Colin Moran North Carolina 3B 113 0.7
2016 2 Reds Nick Senzel Tennessee 3B

 

 

 
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How would you gentlemen assess the relative opposing pitching, of the collegiate conferences, in which Bohm, Madrigal and India respectively play? To what degree do you think that factor should be considered? 

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50 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

I'm just glad the Reds won that last game of the 2017 season and Sox were able to keep the 4th pick. I feel much better with the Sox picking between Bohm and Madrigal rather than Singer and Swaggerty,etc.

Yeah. As this draft has come down towards the end, it feels like that #4 pick is a lot better than #5. I'd be jacked with either Bohm or Madrigral. Now watch the Sox take Singer.

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2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I read this, really liked it. Sometimes players stay up there long but don't get mocked to the sox, and you forget how exciting they are. Major bat.

This happens all the time but if you listen to Callis talk about him, you'll come away wanting more. However, the Fangraphs guys are very high on him and aren't buying into their being defensive questions at 3B. The differentiation in the power grades is interesting too. Pipeline put a 55 on him but it seems that most other outlets put a 70 on the power

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5 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

This happens all the time but if you listen to Callis talk about him, you'll come away wanting more. However, the Fangraphs guys are very high on him and aren't buying into their being defensive questions at 3B. The differentiation in the power grades is interesting too. Pipeline put a 55 on him but it seems that most other outlets put a 70 on the power

I feel like Pipeline always errs towards the middle grades on players. Even in their write up of him they talk about his "considerable power potential" and the give him a 55. For Gorman they even said how he has 70 grade power and then they gave him a 60. Casas is said to have some of the best raw power in the draft and they give him a 55. It's one reason I really like how Fangraphs does the present and future grades because with Pipeline its hard to tell who they think has good power that will play versus great power that may play. 

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Jim in Chicago
12:15
If Casey Mize doesn't go #1, where does he end up?
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:17
This seems to be the question of the moment. Detroit is seriously thinking about other options at 1-1, and the talk of this got around right after out mock came up. The specifics about what medicals Mize has shared, what Detroit has, what other teams have and what those medicals say is a little hazy and some of the answers are protected by HIPAA so we won't get everything we would like to know pre draft.
 
12:18
What we do know is that Mize pitches like a 27 year old Japanese starter (lots of cutters and splitters), which is good in that he's a finished product, good in the sense that he's good in a unique way, not so good in the sense that he likely won't get better. And he has enough of an injury history that we have to question (more than any other arm at the top of the draft) how teams may react to medical info that we will not be able to see.
 
 
So
 
12:19
If he doesn't go 1-1, it would be due to projecting his health and once he slides past 1, it's unclear where he would stop because we don't know what the info would be that caused him to slide
 
 
BUT
 
12:20
Using Jeff Hoffman or Mark Appel as a guide, in general an injury/signability concern slides you to the back of the top tier, which is about 5-7 players, so I would assume he still goes comfortably in the top 10 even if the medical is gruesome, which I don't think it is.
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10 minutes ago, GenericUserName said:

I feel like Pipeline always errs towards the middle grades on players. Even in their write up of him they talk about his "considerable power potential" and the give him a 55. For Gorman they even said how he has 70 grade power and then they gave him a 60. Casas is said to have some of the best raw power in the draft and they give him a 55. It's one reason I really like how Fangraphs does the present and future grades because with Pipeline its hard to tell who they think has good power that will play versus great power that may play. 

Speaking of Fangraphs grades, does anyone know when their 2018 version of this is coming out?

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Just now, DirtySox said:
Jim in Chicago
12:15
If Casey Mize doesn't go #1, where does he end up?
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:17
This seems to be the question of the moment. Detroit is seriously thinking about other options at 1-1, and the talk of this got around right after out mock came up. The specifics about what medicals Mize has shared, what Detroit has, what other teams have and what those medicals say is a little hazy and some of the answers are protected by HIPAA so we won't get everything we would like to know pre draft.
What we do know is that Mize pitches like a 27 year old Japanese starter (lots of cutters and splitters), which is good in that he's a finished product, good in the sense that he's good in a unique way, not so good in the sense that he likely won't get better. And he has enough of an injury history that we have to question (more than any other arm at the top of the draft) how teams may react to medical info that we will not be able to see.
So
If he doesn't go 1-1, it would be due to projecting his health and once he slides past 1, it's unclear where he would stop because we don't know what the info would be that caused him to slide
BUT
Using Jeff Hoffman or Mark Appel as a guide, in general an injury/signability concern slides you to the back of the top tier, which is about 5-7 players, so I would assume he still goes comfortably in the top 10 even if the medical is gruesome, which I don't think it is.

So it looks like that top 4 guys might have just become a top 3. I really hope we aren't the one left without a guy

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Just now, GenericUserName said:

So it looks like that top 4 guys might have just become a top 3. I really hope we aren't the one left without a guy

I still think it's too early to say that.  There is so much we aren't privy to because of the medicals. It might just push Mize to the Sox at number 4, which could be best case scenario.

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Hinkie
12:28
If the Tigers end up passing on Casey Mize for a well below slot deal with somebody else, do the Giants jump all over Mize or will they also look for an underslot deal ?  I guess this is a long way of asking ... how possible is it Mize falls to the Phillies at 1-3 ???
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:31
Don't know how things play out if Mize doesn't go 1-1, but one team in the top 5 told me if the Tigers could be this on Mize and get off him for medicals, we're probably not gonna like it either and there's still plenty of good players to choose from. An exec in the top 10 told me if he's 1-1 he just cuts Madrigal and takes him over retail priced Mize.

Out of the top 5, that gamble on a hypothetical Mize with a bad medical makes more sense with the top tier off the board. All speculative at this point and it is possible that this is all a smokescreen from Detroit but we've talked to some people that would know and they're convinced the Tigers are at least heavily shopping around for alternative, at least one very plugged in person think they've already moved on from Mize.
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1 minute ago, bmags said:

I know most would say Singer, but if Mize has something bad on his medicals I would probably cut Kelenic a deal at 4.

I think if Madrigal/Bohm are off the board and Mize is a no touch because of medicals, I'm favoring India. Hopefully at some sort of savings.

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Bravesy McBravesface
12:53
How likely is it that Joey Bart actually goes 1-1 now?  Is Alec Bohm a possibility at 1-1?  Has Mize's rough last couple of outings caused any uncertainty?
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:54
Don't think Mize's performance is the factor here. It may be 60/40 Mize/Bart at this point.
 
 
If only betting were legal
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