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Keith Law Top 100

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QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 01:59 PM)
Yea none of that changes my mind about the Lopez snub, or really the idiotic rationale behind the Lopez snub. The Kopech and Moncada rankings are fine, just a little unconventional.

 

Anyone want to keep calling Rafael Dever a "throw-in" to the Sale deal? Sure seems to me like Hahn should've fought harder for him.

 

Hahn can "fight harder" all he likes. BOS wasn't throwing in a third top-20 level prospect.

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QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:10 PM)
Is he saying Collins is a better hitter than he thought or Thaiss?

 

From my reading I think he said he's much better than Thaiss and also a better hitter than he thought pre-draft.

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QUOTE (joejoedairy @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:26 PM)
From my reading I think he said he's much better than Thaiss and also a better hitter than he thought pre-draft.

Ya, that's what I got out of it.

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QUOTE (Footlongcomiskeydog @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:41 PM)
I don't see Carson Fulmer in the top 100 anywhere. The Sox may have royally screwed him up by rushing him to the Show last year.

Top 100 doesn't matter unless we never see Fulmer again.

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QUOTE (Sox-35th @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:42 PM)
Top 100 doesn't matter unless we never see Fulmer again.

 

 

I guess so. He is definitely trending in the wrong direction. It is not a good thing when a top 10 draft pick from 2 years ago goes spiraling down the rankings.

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QUOTE (Footlongcomiskeydog @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:49 PM)
I guess so. He is definitely trending in the wrong direction. It is not a good thing when a top 10 draft pick from 2 years ago goes spiraling down the rankings.

 

And when the guy picked one spot ahead of him is #1 in the rankings. Better than one spot behind, I suppose.

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QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:59 PM)
And when the guy picked one spot ahead of him is #1 in the rankings. Better than one spot behind, I suppose.

 

 

It seems like all the major pundits do not see a future for Fulmer as a starter. The Sox will most likely start with him in the rotation at AAA this year, but I highly doubt he sticks as a starter. I have no idea why he was rushed up last year. He looked totally lost on the mound.

 

I hope I'm wrong but he is looking more and more like another first round pick that the Sox would take back in a heartbeat if they could.

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QUOTE (Footlongcomiskeydog @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:41 PM)
I don't see Carson Fulmer in the top 100 anywhere. The Sox may have royally screwed him up by rushing him to the Show last year.

 

If he won't rank guys he thinks are relievers, and doesn't like small SP's it makes sense he wouldn't like Fulmer

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:08 PM)
If he won't rank guys he thinks are relievers, and doesn't like small SP's it makes sense he wouldn't like Fulmer

 

guys, nobody should be surprised by law's omissions of fulmer, lopez. he's always done this, omitting pitchers he doesn't think can start long term. he's a huge proponent of advanced statistics, especially WAR, and to him a #3/4 SP is more valuable than an elite closer because they have more impact on WAR.

 

in a way, i agree with him. we're about to witness a 2017 season where the yankees have an elite bullpen but their terrible sp will ensure they suck. whereas if you flipped that to a solid staff and iffy bullpen you could be a playoff team (ie dodgers of previous years).

 

i really do hope lopez proves him wrong, and i think he's in no better organization for that based on what cooper did w sale (who law admits he also applied the reliever tag to). but to defend keith's thought process, you all will be disappointed if lopex and fulmer end up in the bullpen. if they do there's no doubt they'll be hi leverage rps, but you'll still wish they wouldve made it as sps.

 

in the end, he doesnt hate the sox, or any other team for that matter so saying such it wacky. he gave favorite reviews of collins and kopech, still thinks very highly of giolito and was slightly below others but still very high on moncada. he hates relievers, that's not new

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QUOTE (Footlongcomiskeydog @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 03:10 PM)
It seems like all the major pundits do not see a future for Fulmer as a starter. The Sox will most likely start with him in the rotation at AAA this year, but I highly doubt he sticks as a starter. I have no idea why he was rushed up last year. He looked totally lost on the mound.

 

I hope I'm wrong but he is looking more and more like another first round pick that the Sox would take back in a heartbeat if they could.

Replace the "on the mound" with "at the plate" and you have Moncada's situation with boston. Does that mean he looks like a bust as well?

 

Small sample sizes.

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QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 04:30 PM)
guys, nobody should be surprised by law's omissions of fulmer, lopez. he's always done this, omitting pitchers he doesn't think can start long term. he's a huge proponent of advanced statistics, especially WAR, and to him a #3/4 SP is more valuable than an elite closer because they have more impact on WAR.

 

in a way, i agree with him. we're about to witness a 2017 season where the yankees have an elite bullpen but their terrible sp will ensure they suck. whereas if you flipped that to a solid staff and iffy bullpen you could be a playoff team (ie dodgers of previous years).

 

i really do hope lopez proves him wrong, and i think he's in no better organization for that based on what cooper did w sale (who law admits he also applied the reliever tag to). but to defend keith's thought process, you all will be disappointed if lopex and fulmer end up in the bullpen. if they do there's no doubt they'll be hi leverage rps, but you'll still wish they wouldve made it as sps.

 

in the end, he doesnt hate the sox, or any other team for that matter so saying such it wacky. he gave favorite reviews of collins and kopech, still thinks very highly of giolito and was slightly below others but still very high on moncada. he hates relievers, that's not new

 

 

I'm not just talking about Law here. ZIPS doesn't have him in the top 100 either. I'm not sure anyone has him ranked in the top 100 anywhere. That is not good and you really can't sugarcoat it. Dude is not even looking like the best Vandy pitcher of that draft class.

 

Did we ever get an explanation as to why he was rushed up to the bigs last year? That was another terrible decision by this organization. 2016 seemed to be full of bad decisions unfortunately.

 

 

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If his short stint at the MLB level ruined him then Fulmer was never going to make it anyway. He's a not in the top 100 anymore but he's still likely a top 150 prospect, his stock is definitely down but he's not a lost cause yet.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 04:55 PM)
If his short stint at the MLB level ruined him then Fulmer was never going to make it anyway. He's a not in the top 100 anymore but he's still likely a top 150 prospect, his stock is definitely down but he's not a lost cause yet.

100% agree. No doubt his stock is down, but the kid is only 23 years old. Way too early to write him off.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 05:00 PM)
So Law has never seen Tatis play. I would imagine it is the same with many he has ranked.

 

 

Why is everyone so enamoured with his rankings?

I for one don't give a rats ass about anyone's ranking of prospects . I take it for what it is ,just one mans opinion,which in the grand scheme of thing means squat. Soon enough the shine will wear off some of these prospects or it will get shinier. Since I am a Sox fan I sure hope it gets shinier but if it doesn't it isn't like I 've never seen prospects fail before.

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QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 05:30 PM)
guys, nobody should be surprised by law's omissions of fulmer, lopez. he's always done this, omitting pitchers he doesn't think can start long term. he's a huge proponent of advanced statistics, especially WAR, and to him a #3/4 SP is more valuable than an elite closer because they have more impact on WAR.

 

in a way, i agree with him. we're about to witness a 2017 season where the yankees have an elite bullpen but their terrible sp will ensure they suck. whereas if you flipped that to a solid staff and iffy bullpen you could be a playoff team (ie dodgers of previous years).

 

i really do hope lopez proves him wrong, and i think he's in no better organization for that based on what cooper did w sale (who law admits he also applied the reliever tag to). but to defend keith's thought process, you all will be disappointed if lopex and fulmer end up in the bullpen. if they do there's no doubt they'll be hi leverage rps, but you'll still wish they wouldve made it as sps.

 

in the end, he doesnt hate the sox, or any other team for that matter so saying such it wacky. he gave favorite reviews of collins and kopech, still thinks very highly of giolito and was slightly below others but still very high on moncada. he hates relievers, that's not new

 

A starter is always better but chapman averaged 2.5 war the last 3 years. That is not like a top starter but better than most number 4 starters and better than what most 50 to 100 ranked prospects achieve during the prime of their career.

 

Most lower ranked top 100 prospects become like semi regulars or so. Of course that ceiling is very high but chapman is definitely as valuable as a top30 prospect (actually he returned one from the cubs).

 

I agree to give a discount to relief prospects but I dont see why a truely elite relief prospect shouldn't be ranked like 80 or so.

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How many players on the White Sox are in Law's top 100? Does Callis have a top 100?

 

Anyone concerned that the White Sox still don't have many positional players who are top prospects? I guess 2 in the top 100 isn't horrible, but are there others in the pipeline?

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QUOTE (spiderman @ Jan 28, 2017 -> 08:29 AM)
How many players on the White Sox are in Law's top 100? Does Callis have a top 100?

 

Anyone concerned that the White Sox still don't have many positional players who are top prospects? I guess 2 in the top 100 isn't horrible, but are there others in the pipeline?

Yes and no. Once you start a rebuild, you can draft and develop positional talent. Having too many pitcher is fine, because you can move them for what they're missing. At this point in an early rebuild, Hahn's job is to maximize value in the form of talent, regardless of what it is.

 

When we were going for it every year, I was one of the people who said "The Sox can't draft and develop positional talent", but now they are going to have a number of better opportunities to do so and they have done quite a bit to revamp their organization (highlighted by a solid draft).

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QUOTE (spiderman @ Jan 28, 2017 -> 08:29 AM)
How many players on the White Sox are in Law's top 100? Does Callis have a top 100?

 

Anyone concerned that the White Sox still don't have many positional players who are top prospects? I guess 2 in the top 100 isn't horrible, but are there others in the pipeline?

 

 

Law has 4. Callis/Mayo do a top 100 list together for mob.com. I'm expecting 7 White Sox on that one.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 07:00 PM)
So Law has never seen Tatis play. I would imagine it is the same with many he has ranked.

 

 

Why is everyone so enamoured with his rankings?

 

I thought that was kind of funny too. He's never seen him play, but has heard scouting reports say he looks really good, thus, he's a top 50 prospect in the game.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 27, 2017 -> 02:49 PM)
Here are some questions from the Keith Law chat today:

 

Mike: I did not see Reynaldo Lopez on your list. Is this because you think he is 100% a reliever or was he not eligible?

 

KLaw: Another one I think is absolutely a reliever. Can't start with that delivery.

 

Olivio: Keith, looks like you let your ego get the best of you once again with that Yoan ranking. Seems he's a shoe in as a top 5 prospect. Why so low on him?

 

KLaw: Yes, it's all my ego, not a rational examination of each player's strengths and weaknesses, which I then spelled out at length for everyone to see. It's just me.

 

Padres Fan: Fernando Tatis Jr is someone a lot of people are including on Padres Top 10 lists, but to consider him a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball is pleasantly surprising. Is this ranking based on what he's done, or what you expect him to do in 2017?

 

KLaw: It's based in this case entirely on scouts' feedback about him specifically and the list as a whole. I have yet to see him play.

 

Travis: What fan base usually asks the most questions on a weekly bases?

 

KLaw: Right now it's Atlanta, although there's been a strange uptick in White Sox questions lately.

 

KLaw is out of his mind guy: A guy with makeup issues (and hasn't pitched above High-A) is the top SP prospect over two SPs who can throw nearly as hard, have better secondary stuff - and both have seen the bigs. Well, I'm convinced. (sarcasm detector in the red)

 

KLaw: You lost me right there at "makeup issues." You almost certainly know nothing about Kopech's makeup except the secondhand stuff you've read. I would bet good money I know more about the subject, and obviously I'm comfortable ranking him where I did even knowing that information. And hey, feel free to omit the delivery questions I had on Reyes, since they don't support your whining.

 

Parrot: Assuming Zack Collins can't stay behind the plate, how much of a gap exists between him and Matt Thaiss?

 

KLaw: Large. He's got way more power. And I think he's a better hitter than I credited him for being before the draft.

 

Johnathan: I understand your ranking of Yoan Moncada; but for those that see at 70 FV prospect ranked elsewhere, how do you explain the massive drop? Is his swing and miss issues that pronounced? Does he not still project to be a 70 FV to you?

 

KLaw: I simply don't see a 70 Future Value as a likely enough outcome.

 

Nils: Hi Keith, thanks for the top 100 list. From what you have seen and heard of Moncada, does he have the potential to become more than average defensively at 2B?

 

KLaw: No. I liked him better at 3B, where the explosiveness plays up and his trouble getting down on balls is less of an issue.

 

Matt: Just to dive a little further into Reynaldo Lopez, if you don't mind. Two years ago, when he had very little experience and, presumably, the same delivery, he ranked 75th on your list. Two years later, after a breakout season in which he dominated the minors as a starter and looked at least passable in the Majors (8.59 K/9), why has he only fallen in your eyes?

 

KLaw: He hasn't "fallen," and that's your entire problem here. He doesn't have the delivery to start, ergo, he's not on the list. He even had a big split between starting and relief work in the majors (small samples for both, though).

 

Mark: Your Moncada ranking is interesting as I figured he would be a shoe in for the #1 spot just based off of all the hype I've read about him and him being Minor League Player of the Year. Granted ranking him 17 isn't anything to sneeze at but from the write up it sounds like you're very concerned with his swing and miss. Obviously there have been former #1 prospects that were busts (like Delmon Young) how would you rank Moncada's bust potential?

 

KLaw: Minor League Player of the Year doesn't affect my opinion of a player - it's just a vote. I think the swing itself leads to swing and miss and a major hole that he's going to struggle to close.

Any other Busts at Number 1 besides D. Young?

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