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Keith Law Top 100

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Since pitching is such a unique/atypical action for the body, I really think pitcher health is mostly up to genetics and luck. Some people's body's are just more resilient than others to unnatural action. There are some obvious red flag mechanics that can be adapted, but at the end of the day, it really is a crapshoot.

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Inarguably, the best starter of our lifetime (Pedro) and one of the hardest throwers (Wagner) were both tiny guys. I understand they're outliers, however, it just shows how unpredictable these things can be.

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 12:57 PM)
Inarguably, the best starter of our lifetime (Pedro) and one of the hardest throwers (Wagner) were both tiny guys. I understand they're outliers, however, it just shows how unpredictable these things can be.

 

Pedro is a hall of famer and outlier

 

If you look at the top 25 mlb starting pitcher WAR the vast majority are 6'2" to 6'5" and weigh 195 to 220 lbs

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QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 12:57 PM)
Inarguably, the best starter of our lifetime (Pedro) and one of the hardest throwers (Wagner) were both tiny guys. I understand they're outliers, however, it just shows how unpredictable these things can be.

 

I like Pedro a lot but this is a really bold statement. For peak, sure. But otherwise Clemens, Maddux and Johnson are all ahead of him.

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QUOTE (3GamesToLove @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 12:54 PM)
I like Pedro a lot but this is a really bold statement. For peak, sure. But otherwise Clemens, Maddux and Johnson are all ahead of him.

I think Pedro is the best I ever saw. I loved Maddux for what he did and for whatever reason I just never think of Clemens as highly as others (even though his stats are absurd). Johnson was fun to watch, but Pedro was far more dominant at his peak, imo. I'd put Pedro / Kershaw as 1/2 on my list of pitchers I've watched.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 03:11 PM)
I'm a peak guy too, so Pedro is easily my #1. Longevity is nice and all but for best ever I think peak should win out.

 

Martinez in 1999 - 2000 was absolute filth

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Like watching a smaller guy dunk, there is something fun about watching a pitcher use their whole body and wildly flailing after the pitch.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 04:00 PM)
I think Pedro is the best I ever saw. I loved Maddux for what he did and for whatever reason I just never think of Clemens as highly as others (even though his stats are absurd). Johnson was fun to watch, but Pedro was far more dominant at his peak, imo. I'd put Pedro / Kershaw as 1/2 on my list of pitchers I've watched.

Smaller sample size, but 1984-1985 Doc Gooden was near-invincible those years. He was so young then, but at the time I thought he was on his way to becoming one of, if not, the best of all time. Shame what demons would eventually prevent him from reaching that plateau.

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 09:46 AM)
Law's evaluations of bats have been as good as any publication writer over the internet age. He's outstanding. If I like a guy (on the position side) and then I hear Law likes him, I'll dive in and usually come out looking good.

 

Law's evaluations of pitchers is almost like punching in numbers into a system.

 

Under 6'1"? Under 185? Automatic reliever.

 

6'3"+ but very thin frame? Automatic reliever.

 

Throws hard with bad mechanics? Automatic reliever.

 

Law wants every pitcher to be 6'4" 215 lbs with perfect mechanics. I just don't think mechanics are as predictable as Law's writeups would give credence to. It's not even like he would argue that but he just bets on the workhorse bodies and does his presumptuous, writing-off of any guy who doesn't apply. Frankly, it's not the worst strategy given the tough task that Law has to do but at the same time, he knows some of these unconventional deliver/smaller body guys are going to work out and they're going to keep making him like bad (See Sale, See Carlos Martinez, Hopefully see Reynaldo Lopez).

With the unpredictability of pitching, he will be right more than wrong with this system. That's why he does it.

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Not pasting any of the commentary since it's for Insider subscribers...

 

100. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

99. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

98. Sam Travis, 1B, Boston Red Sox

97. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins

96. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies

95. Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox

94. Luis Castillo, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

93. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics

92. Christin Stewart, OF, Detroit Tigers

91. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Minnesota Twins

90. Jahmai Jones, OF, Los Angeles Angels

89. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

88. Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York Yankees

87. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins

86. Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago Cubs

85. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians

84. Justin Dunn, RHP, New York Mets

83. Riley Pint, RHP, Colorado Rockies

82. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers

81. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves

 

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 03:39 PM)
Not pasting any of the commentary since it's for Insider subscribers...

 

100. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

99. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

98. Sam Travis, 1B, Boston Red Sox

97. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins

96. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies

95. Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox

94. Luis Castillo, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

93. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics

92. Christin Stewart, OF, Detroit Tigers

91. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Minnesota Twins

90. Jahmai Jones, OF, Los Angeles Angels

89. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

88. Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York Yankees

87. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins

86. Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago Cubs

85. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians

84. Justin Dunn, RHP, New York Mets

83. Riley Pint, RHP, Colorado Rockies

82. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers

81. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves

 

I get the lofty strikeout numbers, but I'm puzzled as to why the Cubs Dylan Cease is in the top 100 prospects after only throwing 68 innings over two seasons while walking 5.4 batters per 9 innings in rookie ball and low A ball

 

He screams future reliever to me, and that is if he can stay healthy

 

 

 

 

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 04:51 PM)
I get the lofty strikeout numbers, but I'm puzzled as to why the Cubs Dylan Cease is in the top 100 prospects after only throwing 68 innings over two seasons while walking 5.4 batters per 9 innings in rookie ball and low A ball

 

He screams future reliever to me, and that is if he can stay healthy

 

"Has one of the biggest fastballs in pro baseball....Cease has shown a plus breaking ball and would be fine pitching at 96-99 without trying to hit triple digits. He also has the athleticism and overall repertoire to start if he can stay healthy..."

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 03:59 PM)
"Has one of the biggest fastballs in pro baseball....Cease has shown a plus breaking ball and would be fine pitching at 96-99 without trying to hit triple digits. He also has the athleticism and overall repertoire to start if he can stay healthy..."

 

I get the big fastball and projectable frame, but the scouting report seems really inaccurate

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55

 

How does 5.4 BB/9 in Rookie ball and low A ball translate to 50 grade control? I'd say it's 40/45 grade at best

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Franklin Perez (HOU) and Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) are ranked 66 and 74, respectively in Law's top 100.

 

BOth names bandied about around here in Q rumors.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:14 AM)
Franklin Perez (HOU) and Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) are ranked 66 and 74, respectively in Law's top 100.

 

BOth names bandied about around here in Q rumors.

 

Seems high for Hayes at this stage of his development. The upside is there to be an average starting 3B, but I would not have him as a top 100 prospect yet

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:36 AM)
I am sure Law will be as high on him as anyone. Law was a huge fan of Hayes when he was a draft prospect. Essentially said that he was a high school athlete who will hit but doesn't have a position. Since going pro, Hayes has really taken to 3B. I think Hayes is a big breakout guy this year and perhaps Law wants to be on the "I told you so" side of that.

 

I'm not knocking him as a prospect, but it seems early to place Hayes in the top 75 prospects based on 65 minor league games in which he held his own, but was not spectacular or anything

 

That ranking is a full season of quality production and proven health ahead of where it should be in my opinion

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QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 03:39 PM)
Not pasting any of the commentary since it's for Insider subscribers...

 

100. Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

99. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

98. Sam Travis, 1B, Boston Red Sox

97. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins

96. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado Rockies

95. Zack Collins, C, Chicago White Sox

94. Luis Castillo, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

93. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics

92. Christin Stewart, OF, Detroit Tigers

91. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Minnesota Twins

90. Jahmai Jones, OF, Los Angeles Angels

89. Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

88. Justus Sheffield, LHP, New York Yankees

87. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins

86. Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago Cubs

85. Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians

84. Justin Dunn, RHP, New York Mets

83. Riley Pint, RHP, Colorado Rockies

82. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers

81. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves

 

80. Adrian Morejon LHP San Diego

79. Luis Ortiz RHP Milwaukee

78. Forrest Whitley RHP Houston

77. Luiz Gohara LHP Atlanta

76. Robert Gsellman RHP NYM

75. Yohander Mendez LHP Texas

74. Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh

73. Jose De Leon RHP Tampa Bay

72. Sean Reid-Foley RHP Toronto

71. Josh Hader LHP Milwaukee

70. Lucas Erceg 3B Milwaukee

69. Chance Sisco C Baltimore

68. Kyle Lewis OF Seattle

67. Trent Clark OF Milwaukee

66. Franklin Perez RHP Houston

65. Fernando Romero RHP Minnesota

64. Ariel Jurado RHP Texas

63. Ian Happ 2B CHC

62. Tyler Beede RHP San Francisco

61. Delvin Perez SS St. Louis

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QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:36 AM)
I am sure Law will be as high on him as anyone. Law was a huge fan of Hayes when he was a draft prospect. Essentially said that he was a high school athlete who will hit but doesn't have a position. Since going pro, Hayes has really taken to 3B. I think Hayes is a big breakout guy this year and perhaps Law wants to be on the "I told you so" side of that.

 

 

Law will definitely be the high man on Newman too. Bet he has him top 30.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 10:48 AM)
Law will definitely be the high man on Newman too. Bet he has him top 30.

 

Law is high on younger players it seems. I'm no expert, but I would tend to favor prospects further along in their development in the top 100 until they have proven more in the minor leagues

 

Delvin Perez has talent, but #61 based on his play in rookie ball (admittedly impressive for an 18 year old) is high

 

Law's rankings look smart for picking players that could rise up, but also I'll bet alot of these deep dives are out of the top 100 by mid season due to over projection

 

 

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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 08:56 AM)
Law is high on younger players it seems. I'm no expert, but I would tend to favor prospects further along in their development in the top 100 until they have proven more in the minor leagues

 

Delvin Perez has talent, but #61 based on his play in rookie ball (admittedly impressive for an 18 year old) is high

 

Law's rankings look smart for picking players that could rise up, but also I'll bet alot of these deep dives are out of the top 100 by mid season due to over projection

 

law has always valued potential over proximity. the full-season low minors, high ceiling guys are the ones that typically occupy the 50-100 slots in his rankings. you wont see many more past that (maybe maitan, ocuna, keller, espinoza, groome)

 

 

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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 23, 2017 -> 10:17 AM)
Law doesn't think favorably of any White Sox prospect.

 

That's not true at all. We have had a garbage system for years, during which we, as fans, have had to hype ourselves up about BS prospects. It's disappointing when pundits take the wind out of our sails by calling mediocre prospects mediocre, but look back over the past 5 years or so and make me a list of guys Keith Law hated but turned out to be really good. AFAIK, that list is basically Chris Sale, and only because he thought Sale was destined for the bullpen, which was a commonly held ad completely justifiable belief at the time.

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 24, 2017 -> 11:19 AM)
That's not true at all. We have had a garbage system for years, during which we, as fans, have had to hype ourselves up about BS prospects. It's disappointing when pundits take the wind out of our sails by calling mediocre prospects mediocre, but look back over the past 5 years or so and make me a list of guys Keith Law hated but turned out to be really good. AFAIK, that list is basically Chris Sale, and only because he thought Sale was destined for the bullpen, which was a commonly held ad completely justifiable belief at the time.

The Sox prospects have sucked, but Law was dead wrong about Sale in more ways than one, and it wasn't that he was just a reliever.

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