Keith Law Top 100

[OmarComing25]

Can someone post his writeup of Tatis?

[Con te Giolito]

Shields will serve his purpose if he's bad enough to allow the Sox to get Beer.

Its time to let go of this delusion. Sox will be picking ~10th again.

Edited January 25, 2017 by Con te Giolito

[southsider2k5]

Hey guys, I'm new here, guy from germany who follows the sox.

 

I think the sox should try everything to keep him at C. 10 years ago guys who can strike out, walk and hit for power were valued very highly (OBP,OPS era of sabermetrics) but in the last couple years that type of 1b/DH good OBP/power slugger has lost a lot of value on the market and you can get solid 1B guys with power on the cheap. of course he still has value there, especially at the league minimum salary but unless he hits like jim thome the value for a good but not great hitting 1B (120 OPS+) with mediocre D is limited if you go by WAR (often under 2 which is around league average for a full time starter).

 

So in the current market I don't think collins can really hit himself out of catching just with his power and patience, unless he drastically reduces his Ks and suddenly his 315 with the same kind of power because you can always buy a chris carter (or equivalent) to do the same quite cheap.

 

collins value as a DH/1b is not zero and it is a fall back plan but if you can get him to not suck at C that would be great. especially the new framing data make that interesting for not so athletic catchers. athleticism might limit blocking and throwing but even a non athlete could still become a good framer if you have the right personell to teach it (and inherent talent of the player). so if they could teach collins to frame well he could be an OK catcher even with so so blocking and throwing skills. of course not every non athlete can become a good framer and it is still not quite clear how to teach framing. it could also be that collins becomes a bad framer on top of bad blocking and throwing and in that case he indeed would be unplayable at C and needs to go back to plan B but you should give him all the time to learn framing (and get his throwing and blocking to non terrible).

 

I would definitely give him all the time he needs because a 260 bat with walks and power but no baserunning or defensive value still plays at the MLB level but is not as valuable as it used to be.

 

Welcome to Soxtalk!

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Its time to let go of this delusion. Sox will be picking ~10th again.

Doubt it, especially if they trade Q. I think 5th-7th is the worst case scenario if Q is traded before the season.

[OmarComing25]

Its time to let go of this delusion. Sox will be picking ~10th again.

A week ago you were saying if the Sox traded Frazier and Quintana they would challenge the 2003 Tigers' record and now you're saying with those two they'll be picking 10th?

[Con te Giolito]

A week ago you were saying if the Sox traded Frazier and Quintana they would challenge the 2003 Tigers' record and now you're saying with those two they'll be picking 10th?

Does it look like they are trading everyone still?

 

Also it was more like a month ago that I said that. If they do still unload everyone I'll go back to thinking they could have a high 2018 draft pick, but right now this is probably a 75+ win team.

Edited January 25, 2017 by Con te Giolito

[Y2Jimmy0]

80. Adrian Morejon LHP San Diego

79. Luis Ortiz RHP Milwaukee

78. Forrest Whitley RHP Houston

77. Luiz Gohara LHP Atlanta

76. Robert Gsellman RHP NYM

75. Yohander Mendez LHP Texas

74. Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh

73. Jose De Leon RHP Tampa Bay

72. Sean Reid-Foley RHP Toronto

71. Josh Hader LHP Milwaukee

70. Lucas Erceg 3B Milwaukee

69. Chance Sisco C Baltimore

68. Kyle Lewis OF Seattle

67. Trent Clark OF Milwaukee

66. Franklin Perez RHP Houston

65. Fernando Romero RHP Minnesota

64. Ariel Jurado RHP Texas

63. Ian Happ 2B CHC

62. Tyler Beede RHP San Francisco

61. Delvin Perez SS St. Louis

 

60. Thomas Szapicki LHP NYM

59. Kevin Maitan SS Atlanta

58. Raimel Tapia OF Colorado

57. Kyle Tucker OF Houston

56. Franklin Barreto SS Oakland

55. Anthony Alford OF Toronto

54. Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay

53. Nick Gordon SS Minnesota

52. Ian Anderson RHP Atlanta

51. Carson Kelly C St. Louis

50. Max Fried LHP Atlanta

49. Jesse Winker OF Cincinnati

48. Vladimir Guerrero Jr 3B Toronto

47. Fernando Tatis Jr 3B San Diego

46. Yadier Alvarez RHP LAD

45. Jorge Alfaro C Philadelphia

44. Aaron Judge OF NYY

43. Willy Adames 2B Tampa Bay

42. Braxton Garrett LHP Miami

41. Isan Diaz 2B Milwaukee

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

Doubt it, especially if they trade Q. I think 5th-7th is the worst case scenario if Q is traded before the season.

 

 

I think 5th-7th is worst case if Q isn't traded at all. This team is bad.

[harfman77]

Does it look like they are trading everyone still?

 

Also it was more like a month ago that I said that. If they do still unload everyone I'll go back to thinking they could have a high 2018 draft pick, but right now this is probably a 75+ win team.

 

There is a little more than three months before a game that counts will be played, plenty of time for additional roster movement. I am not sure the Sox are a 75 win team with an OF of Cabrera/Tilson/Liriano. Plus given the sophomore struggles that Anderson and Saladino will inevitably face, the offense is going to be pretty sad.

 

This is not a bad enough team to get the #1 pick, the Padres are going to have that, but anywhere from 3-6 right now with the roster as it stands.

[Eminor3rd]

If the Sox are playing better than expected, it should mean that more of those star performers will be moved at the deadline. Don't underestimate how brutal September can be from a W-L perspective.

[Dick Allen]

If the Sox are playing better than expected, it should mean that more of those star performers will be moved at the deadline. Don't underestimate how brutal September can be from a W-L perspective.

They also play a lot of teams that should be contenders the last month. It could get really ugly.

[southsider2k5]

I think 5th-7th is worst case if Q isn't traded at all. This team is bad.

 

Yeah, I am not sure why people would have any expectations for this team. They have all of the same holes as they had last year, and they are minus their best pitcher and most consistent hitter & fielder.

[flavum]

Reds, Padres, White Sox, A's, Rays, Twins, Phillies...pick your order. These are probably the seven worst teams in baseball.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Yeah, I am not sure why people would have any expectations for this team. They have all of the same holes as they had last year, and they are minus their best pitcher and most consistent hitter & fielder.

 

 

It's because some people think Robin Ventura was worth 10 wins.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Reds, Padres, White Sox, A's, Rays, Twins, Phillies...pick your order. These are probably the seven worst teams in baseball.

 

 

Padres are probably only group with a worse offense than Sox, right?

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Outfield is somewhere between substandard and brutal

Catching mediocre, second base meh

Four and five spots in the rotation would have to improve to be called question marks.

That's before inevitable injuries.

With or without Q, this is a train wreck.

 

 

You could even argue that injuries could result in more talented players being called up.

[flavum]

Padres are probably only group with a worse offense than Sox, right?

 

Not sure. I should probably throw the Brewers in there too. Then it comes down to injuries, more trades, and strength of schedule.

 

Still a lot of variables. My hope is the Sox keep making quality trades, and draft in the top 3 in 2018.

[Con te Giolito]

So according to the Predict Thy Numbers threads the Sox will feature a roster full of overperforming players putting up career years but they'll still finish with less than 70 wins because getting a draft pick is a good thing too.

 

My predictions are that Rodon gets good, Abreu has a good full season and the Q-Fraz-Melky-Migo guys do basically what they did last year. A decent year from Tim Anderson and that's probably the low-end of mediocrity aka picking about 10th, maybe getting up to 6th or 7th if (god forbid) Q or Rodon get hurt. They'd have to shed at least two more players to begin contending for #1 in 2018, but once they do that I really like their odds because of the AL.

[Chisoxfn]

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=6248

 

No White Sox in Law's 41-60. I'm expecting just Moncada, Kopech, and Giolito. He has Fernando Tatis Jr at #47. Yes, that Fernando Tatis Jr.

Hate to say I told you so, but man I hated that trade from day 1.

[Special K]

Robertson, Frazier and Melky at the very least, need to go. Abreu / Jones I'd like to see something solid in return.

 

And it's not like we don't have players we'd like to get a look at in the minors still... e.g. Davidson.

 

Plus Saladino we still need to see a full season from...

[Y2Jimmy0]

So according to the Predict Thy Numbers threads the Sox will feature a roster full of overperforming players putting up career years but they'll still finish with less than 70 wins because getting a draft pick is a good thing too.

 

My predictions are that Rodon gets good, Abreu has a good full season and the Q-Fraz-Melky-Migo guys do basically what they did last year. A decent year from Tim Anderson and that's probably the low-end of mediocrity aka picking about 10th, maybe getting up to 6th or 7th if (god forbid) Q or Rodon get hurt. They'd have to shed at least two more players to begin contending for #1 in 2018, but once they do that I really like their odds because of the AL.

 

 

Lets say Q doesn't move. Your rotation is Q/Rodon/Shields/Gonzalez/Holland. That's a bad rotation. Bullpen is good: Robertson, Jones, Jennings, Putnam, Petricka, etc.

 

Lineup bad:

 

1B: Abreu

2B: Lawrie/Saladino

3B: Frazier

SS: Anderson:

DH:Garcia/Davidson

OF: Tilson, Melky, Garcia, Liriano

 

They'll make subtractions during season: Melky, Frazier, Q, Robertson, Gonzalez, Holland.

 

This is a really bad baseball team.

[Rowand44]

There's so many wildcards when it comes to predicting the Sox record too. Who knows when/ if we see Moncada, Gio, Lopez. Maybe they're all fantastic right from the get go or maybe they're all complete garbage right away. Who the hell knows.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

Does it look like they are trading everyone still?

 

Also it was more like a month ago that I said that. If they do still unload everyone I'll go back to thinking they could have a high 2018 draft pick, but right now this is probably a 75+ win team.

 

So you think they'll only be 3 games worse than last year after getting rid of Sale and Eaton while replacing them with nothing but trash?

 

Lol c'mon man.

[southsider2k5]

Robertson, Frazier and Melky at the very least, need to go. Abreu / Jones I'd like to see something solid in return.

 

And it's not like we don't have players we'd like to get a look at in the minors still... e.g. Davidson.

 

Plus Saladino we still need to see a full season from...

 

No one wants them. They have zero trade value.

[Al Lopez's Ghost]

Lets say Q doesn't move. Your rotation is Q/Rodon/Shields/Gonzalez/Holland. That's a bad rotation. Bullpen is good: Robertson, Jones, Jennings, Putnam, Petricka, etc.

 

Lineup bad:

 

1B: Abreu

2B: Lawrie/Saladino

3B: Frazier

SS: Anderson:

DH:Garcia/Davidson

OF: Tilson, Melky, Garcia, Liriano

 

They'll make subtractions during season: Melky, Frazier, Q, Robertson, Gonzalez, Holland.

 

This is a really bad baseball team

 

I agree with your conclusion, but calling this bullpen good is a stretch. Unless Robertson rebounds and all others stay healthy, it's somewhere between ok and awful.

Edited January 25, 2017 by Al Lopez's Ghost