Keith Law Top 100

[royoung]

I don't give a damn what his reasons are. Yoan Moncada is a consensus top 10 prospect at the very worst, even with that short MLB sample size. Period.

 

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"

 

I don't agree with Law's reasoning here, but to suggest he should ignore a red flag (to him) to go along with the consensus is asinine. Thats his job to notice faults in young baseball players. Hopefully he is completely wrong, but no reason to bash him for pointing it and it and sticking to his opinion.

[Soxfest]

But it's not a consensus because Keith Law has him at #17.....

#17 is nonsense and Law is only fool to devalue him on any list I have seen.

[Chicago White Sox]

Does anyone have access to Law's list from last year?

[royoung]

Does anyone have access to Law's list from last year?

 

Yes. Are you looking for Moncada's rank? He was.....#17. LOL

[ChiSox59]

LOL at Keith Law.

 

I bet Moncada is 2 or 3 on MLB Pipeline.

Edited January 27, 2017 by ChiSox59

[Bob Sacamano]

Alright so I guess that whole thing where Cleveland came within 1 win of a WS win, absolutely bulldozing Boston and Toronto's insane lineups, without their #2 and #3 starter was just a mirage. If you really feel that relief pitchers cannot be as valuable as starters you're out of touch too. With the growing limitations of starters by way of pitch count and the "noise" one can generate in their projections by winning 1 run games (bullpen is what wins you 1 run games) relief pitchers were already gaining larger roles. Now that this idea of having a closer and a high leverage firefighter has become in vogue its making them even more valuable.

 

Look around the league and see what everyone is doing. Cubs traded for Wade Davis, Yankees brought back Chapman, Red Sox traded for Thornburg, Melancon got a ton of money from SF, losing Jansen was never even an option for LA...these are the perennial contenders you want the Sox to be and look at how they value relief pitching now.

 

To be fair, they relied on their bullpen heavily due to having to run out back-end starters most of the games.

[Con te Giolito]

To be fair, they relied on their bullpen heavily due to having to run out back-end starters most of the games.

And they still made it to within 1 win of a WS title.

[Bob Sacamano]

Too many Keith Law threads. That's for sure.

 

Agreed! Can someone please clean these up?

[pablo]

This is nonsense. He does't put Moncada at #17 so people will talk about it. He thinks Moncada is the 17th best prospect in baseball. You people are nuts.

 

I am sure he has his reasons for sliding Moncada down the list, but he's making a bold statement ranking him #17. And from that bold statement, he expects people like us to go out and tell our baseball friends that "Keith Law is crazy! He ranked Moncada #17" which in turn draws more readers to his article/list. And don't forget this is an insider article that requires a subscription. Beyond that, the general premise of my post was that we can't get worked up over these rankings because they will all be different so we'd be nuts if we took them as gospel.

[bmags]

When it comes down to it, Law is a great evaluator. At the same time, he's very bent on himself. Looking back at these rankings in 2020, when these players start showing their true value, I think the actual rank is less important to some writers than where they were against the consensus of writers. This type of thinking, in theory, would make Law dive in on guys and write guys off but it's also a natural hedge. If Moncada becomes a very good player Law can still say, "I had him as the #17 best prospect, that's a very good player, That's a 3 WAR player, etc." If Moncada is a total bust than Law can say, "I didn't see him as highly as everyone else." or "I was the low guy on Moncada." I could be and probably am wrong, but given the insight Law has given us into his person, I wouldn't be surprised if he viewed these rankings as more of a pissing contest than a meritocratic process.

 

That being said, to have an arm with one appearance above A ball like Mitch Keller in front of Yoan Moncada...I just can't get behind that.

 

My impression of Law from his chats is he takes "updating your priors" to a more extreme level from half to half. These are some pretty big ceiling/floor jumps from AFL impressions.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"

 

I don't agree with Law's reasoning here, but to suggest he should ignore a red flag (to him) to go along with the consensus is asinine. Thats his job to notice faults in young baseball players. Hopefully he is completely wrong, but no reason to bash him for pointing it and it and sticking to his opinion.

I'm just saying. What red flags could he possibly see that would make him rank Moncada so much lower than the rest of his peers? I just don't get it.

[YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES!]

I also don't get his Kopech ranking.

 

Don't get me wrong...I absolutely love the guy and think he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in baseball if he hits his ceiling, but to rank him as the top pitching prospect right now? I don't think that's justifiable. He has never pitched at a higher level than A+ ball and his walk rate is mildly concerning.

[bighurt574]

Even if he does feel that way its pretty ignorant to think relievers, especially after what we saw last postseason and the deadline, are still this inferior member of the team. To have this blanket rule that "relievers cant be in the top 100" makes him seem out of touch with today's game, or more importantly tomorrow's game.

 

It's not that relievers are inferior, they're just really hard to project.

 

Since you bring up Cleveland, look at Andrew Miller. Failed starter who found bullpen success in his late 20s.

Edited January 27, 2017 by bighurt574

[bighurt574]

These prospect rankings can also be pretty prone to group think. Nothing wrong with another perspective, even if Law is higher or lower on some guys than the "consensus."

[Chicago White Sox]

Yes. Are you looking for Moncada's rank? He was.....#17. LOL

Wow, that's wild to me that Moncada didn't move up at all after the year he had.

[Con te Giolito]

It's not that relievers are inferior, they're just really hard to project.

 

Since you bring up Cleveland, look at Andrew Miller. Failed starter who found bullpen success in his late 20s.

Yet another victim of the obession with value. Kept at a position or role not because its the right role for him, but because that's where his value is. Lucky him that he found the right place, many others dont.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I'm just saying. What red flags could he possibly see that would make him rank Moncada so much lower than the rest of his peers? I just don't get it.

 

 

This is basically what he says about Moncada:

 

Enormous Explosive athlete that looks like Lawrence Taylor in a baseball uniform

Plus runner, good bat speed and plus raw power

Bad defender that looks stiff at 2B and a bit better at 3B

Destroyed High A .277/.379/.531 but had a 31% strikeout rate

Looked lost in big league promotion

 

He said "Moncada wraps his bat and can't get to stuff thrown inside and backspin it, getting on top of those pitches or misses entirely. In his small major league sample, he looked like he never saw a breaking ball in his life". Law says the latter can change with development time (identifying breaking balls) but the former (wrapping his bat) is a more significant mechanical issue that reduces his ceiling.

 

Should be a good leaguer, maybe above average but carries big risk.

[Bob Sacamano]

This is basically what he says about Moncada:

 

Enormous Explosive athlete that looks like Lawrence Taylor in a baseball uniform

Plus runner, good bat speed and plus raw power

Bad defender that looks stiff at 2B and a bit better at 3B

Destroyed High A .277/.379/.531 but had a 31% strikeout rate

Looked lost in big league promotion

 

He said "Moncada wraps his bat and can't get to stuff thrown inside and backspin it, getting on top of those pitches or misses entirely. In his small major league sample, he looked like he never saw a breaking ball in his life". Law says the latter can change with development time (identifying breaking balls) but the former (wrapping his bat) is a more significant mechanical issue that reduces his ceiling.

 

Should be a good leaguer, maybe above average but carries big risk.

 

This is where good coaching comes in to play.

[Y2Jimmy0]

I also don't get his Kopech ranking.

 

Don't get me wrong...I absolutely love the guy and think he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in baseball if he hits his ceiling, but to rank him as the top pitching prospect right now? I don't think that's justifiable. He has never pitched at a higher level than A+ ball and his walk rate is mildly concerning.

 

 

This is basically what was said about Michael Kopech:

 

Pro career got off to rocky start

Can touch triple digits, regularly sits up 90's

AFL: 96-99, ridiculous arm speed and huge extension over his front side that must make hitters think ball is coming at 110MPH

 

Feel for a hard slider and change up but neither consistent yet

 

Modeled himself after Noah Syndergaard

Other than slight cutoff in his landing, Kopech's delivery works and should allow him to develop average or better command

Just needs to pitch. Both to build durability and work on fastball command and getting off speed pitches to regularly be above average

Upside is of a #1 starter with 2 to 3 truly plus pitches and 200 IP regularly

 

[Dick Allen]

In the end, it doesn't matter where Keith Law ranks Yoan Moncada. His play will let you know where he should have been ranked.

[Bob Sacamano]

In the end, it doesn't matter where Keith Law ranks Yoan Moncada. His play will let you know where he should have been ranked.

 

Agreed. People read way to into the rankings.

[BigHurt3515]

How is JP Crawford #4?

[SCCWS]

It's so f***ing ridiculous. Dude has plus, plus tools across the board and absolutely raked in the minors in his first season since defecting from Cuba. How would 20 at-bats change when he should have never been called up change his prospect status?

 

Moncada was horrible in his 20 AB. But that should have no effect on his ranking. He was recalled from AA not AAA. I could see a minor drop with Moncada because he has not been established with a set position( not his fault). He was moved from 2nd because he was blocked and he was mediocre at 3rd. So maybe he gets a slight drop as a prospect until he looks ML ready at a set position. Since Hahn has made the decision that he is a 2nd baseman, then a full season in AAA should determine his ability to handle 2nd.

[Y2Jimmy0]

Here are some questions from the Keith Law chat today:

 

Mike: I did not see Reynaldo Lopez on your list. Is this because you think he is 100% a reliever or was he not eligible?

 

KLaw: Another one I think is absolutely a reliever. Can't start with that delivery.

 

Olivio: Keith, looks like you let your ego get the best of you once again with that Yoan ranking. Seems he's a shoe in as a top 5 prospect. Why so low on him?

 

KLaw: Yes, it's all my ego, not a rational examination of each player's strengths and weaknesses, which I then spelled out at length for everyone to see. It's just me.

 

Padres Fan: Fernando Tatis Jr is someone a lot of people are including on Padres Top 10 lists, but to consider him a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball is pleasantly surprising. Is this ranking based on what he's done, or what you expect him to do in 2017?

 

KLaw: It's based in this case entirely on scouts' feedback about him specifically and the list as a whole. I have yet to see him play.

 

Travis: What fan base usually asks the most questions on a weekly bases?

 

KLaw: Right now it's Atlanta, although there's been a strange uptick in White Sox questions lately.

 

KLaw is out of his mind guy: A guy with makeup issues (and hasn't pitched above High-A) is the top SP prospect over two SPs who can throw nearly as hard, have better secondary stuff - and both have seen the bigs. Well, I'm convinced. (sarcasm detector in the red)

 

KLaw: You lost me right there at "makeup issues." You almost certainly know nothing about Kopech's makeup except the secondhand stuff you've read. I would bet good money I know more about the subject, and obviously I'm comfortable ranking him where I did even knowing that information. And hey, feel free to omit the delivery questions I had on Reyes, since they don't support your whining.

 

Parrot: Assuming Zack Collins can't stay behind the plate, how much of a gap exists between him and Matt Thaiss?

 

KLaw: Large. He's got way more power. And I think he's a better hitter than I credited him for being before the draft.

 

Johnathan: I understand your ranking of Yoan Moncada; but for those that see at 70 FV prospect ranked elsewhere, how do you explain the massive drop? Is his swing and miss issues that pronounced? Does he not still project to be a 70 FV to you?

 

KLaw: I simply don't see a 70 Future Value as a likely enough outcome.

 

Nils: Hi Keith, thanks for the top 100 list. From what you have seen and heard of Moncada, does he have the potential to become more than average defensively at 2B?

 

KLaw: No. I liked him better at 3B, where the explosiveness plays up and his trouble getting down on balls is less of an issue.

 

Matt: Just to dive a little further into Reynaldo Lopez, if you don't mind. Two years ago, when he had very little experience and, presumably, the same delivery, he ranked 75th on your list. Two years later, after a breakout season in which he dominated the minors as a starter and looked at least passable in the Majors (8.59 K/9), why has he only fallen in your eyes?

 

KLaw: He hasn't "fallen," and that's your entire problem here. He doesn't have the delivery to start, ergo, he's not on the list. He even had a big split between starting and relief work in the majors (small samples for both, though).

 

Mark: Your Moncada ranking is interesting as I figured he would be a shoe in for the #1 spot just based off of all the hype I've read about him and him being Minor League Player of the Year. Granted ranking him 17 isn't anything to sneeze at but from the write up it sounds like you're very concerned with his swing and miss. Obviously there have been former #1 prospects that were busts (like Delmon Young) how would you rank Moncada's bust potential?

 

KLaw: Minor League Player of the Year doesn't affect my opinion of a player - it's just a vote. I think the swing itself leads to swing and miss and a major hole that he's going to struggle to close.

 

 

[Con te Giolito]

Yea none of that changes my mind about the Lopez snub, or really the idiotic rationale behind the Lopez snub. The Kopech and Moncada rankings are fine, just a little unconventional.

 

Anyone want to keep calling Rafael Dever a "throw-in" to the Sale deal? Sure seems to me like Hahn should've fought harder for him.

Edited January 27, 2017 by Con te Giolito