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SSS Theater: Avi Garcia

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First, here is what is usually accepted as "stabilized" sample sizes for various metrics.

 

The only stat we can say with any degree of confidence soon (next 7 or so games) that has "stabilized" will be K rate.

 

So let's start with that. Avi's K rate is down to 20.6%. This is by far the lowest rate of his career and is a good, positive sign for him. It's down over 5% from last year.

 

Avi has currently only about 40 balls in play, so in another two weeks or so of games we can talk more assuredly about his GB/FB tendencies but since this is SSS theater let's talk about them anyways: he's again moved in a positive direction. His GB% is down to 37.5%, that's a whopping decrease from his 55% last year.

 

His pulled ball rate is up to 41.7%, and lord knows all of us have been wanting to see him for years to start pulling the ball with more authority.

 

His walk rate is down a bit to 5.9% but Avi will never be a guy that relies on walks for value, he needs to crush baseballs and make pitchers throw him strikes. On that path, he's doing well. His outside zone swinging is down to 33.3%. When they do throw him stirkes, he's swinging at more of them, at 77.6% and he's making better contact overall, at 75.4% of swings.

 

Defensively, he's basically same old same old. But, he's still been worth .5 WAR because of his hot start with the bat.

 

I don't think there's any doubt that most Sox fans would be content if Avi just turned into a 2 WAR regular. That would mean a slash line of 280/330/460 or so over 140+ games.

 

Can he do it? Not sure. From watching the games he certainly appears to be swinging a quicker bat, and his approach has been better as well. I'll keep this thread updated throughout the next couple months when he reaches the sample sizes for more "stabilization". For now, mostly what we can do is just hope this isn't a fluke.

Here's his fangraphs page where I got all the data.

Edited by chitownsportsfan

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QUOTE (Dunt @ Apr 14, 2017 -> 02:23 PM)
He has a .565 BABIP

 

Fair enough, but that's the result of good contact. It's not sustainable obviously, but if he keeps hitting the ball hard his BABIP should be around 330 at the end of the year.

 

It's SSS to be sure, but it's also fun to speculate on message boards.

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 14, 2017 -> 12:45 PM)
Fair enough, but that's the result of good contact. It's not sustainable obviously, but if he keeps hitting the ball hard his BABIP should be around 330 at the end of the year.

 

It's SSS to be sure, but it's also fun to speculate on message boards.

No matter how many times you state it's SSS theater someone will bring up the ol' BABIP . You were so gracious in your answer. I would be like umm he's hitting .457 why not just say that. Of course his BABIP is going to be off the charts as is his BA at the moment.

Edited by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

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Haha yeah the BABIP actually isn't that high given his average. It'll definitely fall though. Biggest thing is keeping his ground ball rate down. Dude has been making better contact since last year, and his K/BB splits aren't that bad, just needs to actually elevate like a power hitter should.

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QUOTE (Jimmy3Putt @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 05:53 AM)
Put him on the banner!!!

 

That banner is a jinx so far.. we don't need him sucking. :lol:

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Obviously we have been here way too many times before, and his current production is unsustainable. But you look at this guy and wonder how come he can't hit .280-.290 with power? His exit velocity was top 5 in baseball last year and he totally sucked.

 

Chances are disappointment will prevail, but in rebuilding years, players playing like Avi is currently playing keep things at least a little interesting.

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I'm more willing to buy into a potential turnaround for Avi than Davidson. Both have ridiculously high BABIPs, but Avi at least has some indicators of a better approach and doesn't have a huge red flag like Matt's 45% K rate (which many posters keep ignoring). I really think Davidson is going to crash & burn in the coming weeks.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 08:58 AM)
I'm more willing to buy into a potential turnaround for Avi than Davidson. Both have ridiculously high BABIPs, but Avi at least has some indicators of a better approach and doesn't have a huge red flag like Matt's 45% K rate (which many posters keep ignoring). I really think Davidson is going to crash & burn in the coming weeks.

Avi's kind of a no risk guy in my book. He's not key to the rebuild, his BABIP is ridiculous and no one in the MLB believes in him, so he has no real value. Play well or don't, he likely only serves as a sweetener or a piece to make the team watchable.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 07:23 AM)
Obviously we have been here way too many times before, and his current production is unsustainable. But you look at this guy and wonder how come he can't hit .280-.290 with power? His exit velocity was top 5 in baseball last year and he totally sucked.

 

Chances are disappointment will prevail, but in rebuilding years, players playing like Avi is currently playing keep things at least a little interesting.

 

Yep. And that's the thing about Avi's high BABIP. Dude is hitting .465 right now. Of COURSE his BABIP is high. He's obviously going to regress some, and he's probably going to regress a lot, but there's a chance that the light has gone on and he's going to be the guy who hits .280 or .290 with power.

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QUOTE (Sox-35th @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 11:16 AM)
Avi's kind of a no risk guy in my book. He's not key to the rebuild, his BABIP is ridiculous and no one in the MLB believes in him, so he has no real value. Play well or don't, he likely only serves as a sweetener or a piece to make the team watchable.

 

Who knows? Maybe he keeps playing this way and come June/July, a team very thin in the outfield (Giants?) comes calling. I would sell high on him in an instant if we are able to.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 11:43 AM)
Avi and Davidson turning into even just semi-productive players goes a long way for a rebuild.

Does it really though? Avi is only controlled through 2020. I just don't see him being a long term piece unless he's figured it out for real and the Sox sign him to an extension.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 11:43 AM)
Avi and Davidson turning into even just semi-productive players goes a long way for a rebuild.

 

 

I would still bet on neither player being on the next good Sox team.

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QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 11:46 AM)
Does it really though? Avi is only controlled through 2020. I just don't see him being a long term piece unless he's figured it out for real and the Sox sign him to an extension.

 

Unless Avi turns into a legit MVP bat for the next three seasons, he's not going to command top dollar.

 

And with Rick Hahn, we'd lock him up prior.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 11:49 AM)
I would still bet on neither player being on the next good Sox team.

 

I'd agree with that, but it'd be a nice surprise.

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Came to the site for the first time in a long time just to see what the overall breadth of the Avi phenomenon was. Sure enough, the top thread choice. Thank you Soxtalk.

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If he keeps hitting the ball in the air and swinging at less junk outside the zone his turnaround will continue. He's not going to BABIB over 400 all year but if he keeps hitting this many line shots he'll have one around 320-350. That should allow him to hit 280 or higher.

 

Keep it up Avi. I'll update the stats at the end of this week and see if we can spot some more trends.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 11:49 AM)
I would still bet on neither player being on the next good Sox team.

 

Probably not, but it doesn't mean that guys like that aren't the type of players you are putting in your line up today. If you hit gold, or even bronze on one or two of them, you are way ahead of where you were.

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 12:04 PM)
If he keeps hitting the ball in the air and swinging at less junk outside the zone his turnaround will continue. He's not going to BABIB over 400 all year but if he keeps hitting this many line shots he'll have one around 320-350. That should allow him to hit 280 or higher.

 

Keep it up Avi. I'll update the stats at the end of this week and see if we can spot some more trends.

 

Avi's batting average is not his weakness, it's been his bizarre lack of power numbers despite hitting the ball hard. Hard to hit doubles on ground balls, there's not much space between the corners. That's why this increase in lifted balls is important. He can hit .245 if it means 35 doubles instead of 15, 20 home runs instead of 13-14.

 

But, he'll also need to prove it on defense and I still have no confidence there, though I do think LF with his arm could be more helpful.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 11:50 AM)
We have 2 more years correct? Meaning through 2019. I thought that's what someone said yesterday.

 

Yes. He is a FA after 2019.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Apr 17, 2017 -> 12:50 PM)
Avi's batting average is not his weakness, it's been his bizarre lack of power numbers despite hitting the ball hard. Hard to hit doubles on ground balls, there's not much space between the corners. That's why this increase in lifted balls is important. He can hit .245 if it means 35 doubles instead of 15, 20 home runs instead of 13-14.

 

But, he'll also need to prove it on defense and I still have no confidence there, though I do think LF with his arm could be more helpful.

 

If he hits 245 he's going to have a 285 OBP. That's not acceptable even if he's hitting 30 HR. He needs to hit 280 or higher in order to have an acceptable OBP.

 

His defense is a lost cause imo. If he can slash 280/320/480 he's a 2-3 WAR player however.

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