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Reverse Standings Thread

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QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 12:59 AM)
I get that scoreboard watching is fun, but in all honest picks 1-5 are a crapshoot anyway. From 2002-2014 there were four guys that lived up to the hype. I don't care where we draft, as long as we find the right player.

I feel ya. I think position really helps if there are some generational guys at the top. Hopefully that is the case.

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QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 12:59 AM)
I get that scoreboard watching is fun, but in all honest picks 1-5 are a crapshoot anyway. From 2002-2014 there were four guys that lived up to the hype. I don't care where we draft, as long as we find the right player.

 

You're right, but draft pool money is more the higher you pick.

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QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Jul 14, 2017 -> 11:49 PM)
4.5 games behind SF for #2. 0.5 games behind SD for #3.

 

Let the scoreboard watching begin.

 

And Bumgarner is back today. That will help SF get a few more wins, if he stays off his motorcycles.

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QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 12:59 AM)
I get that scoreboard watching is fun, but in all honest picks 1-5 are a crapshoot anyway. From 2002-2014 there were four guys that lived up to the hype. I don't care where we draft, as long as we find the right player.

 

 

This is the wrong way to look at it. You want to pick as high as possible in every draft round and have the highest bonus pool possible.

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I mean if you are looking for future hall of gamers maybe the last 15 years of top 5 picks were disappointing but I can think of more than 4 really good players in that span and they are some of best in league.

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QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 12:59 AM)
I get that scoreboard watching is fun, but in all honest picks 1-5 are a crapshoot anyway. From 2002-2014 there were four guys that lived up to the hype. I don't care where we draft, as long as we find the right player.

 

Still too early to judge 2014 in my mind. Have to wait at least 4-6 years before you can start making those calls.

 

In reverse order, based on whether or not they were "worth" it:

2013 - Kris Bryant and Jon Gray

2012 - Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, possibly Zunino

2011 - Gerritt Cole, Trevor Bauer, and Dylan Bundy

2010 - Bryce Harper, Jameston Taillon, Manny Machado, and Drew Pomeranz (this class was absolutely loaded)

2009 - Stephen Strasburg (also, some guy named Trout was drafted this year)

2008 - Eric Hosmer and Buster Posey. An argument can be made for both Beckham and Alvarez too

2007 - David Price, Mike Moustakas, and Matt Wieters

2006 - Evan Longoria. Picks 6-11 were much better, which include Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and Max Scherzer

2005 - Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan Braun

2004 - Justin Verlander

2003 - Rickie Weeks

2002 - BJ Upton

 

And that's not including a few others who did end up having value as disappointing prospects, and there were plenty of guys who fell out of the top 5 due to other reasons - signability was a big thing in the early to mid aughts, which is why a guy like Rick Porcello fell as far as he did. The draft has changed considerably for the better over the past 5-10 years as a result.

 

No, getting a top 3 pick is absolutely necessary, and I think they'll ultimately pick 2nd. It'll be a tight race down the stretch with the Phillies.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 12:10 PM)
This is the wrong way to look at it. You want to pick as high as possible in every draft round and have the highest bonus pool possible.

 

 

I don't disagree with this. I'm just saying it's not worth us stressing about losing and hoping 5 other teams win each night. These are dark days and there shouldn't be any disappointment if we pick 5th.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 01:41 PM)
Still too early to judge 2014 in my mind. Have to wait at least 4-6 years before you can start making those calls.

 

In reverse order, based on whether or not they were "worth" it:

2013 - Kris Bryant and Jon Gray

2012 - Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, possibly Zunino

2011 - Gerritt Cole, Trevor Bauer, and Dylan Bundy

2010 - Bryce Harper, Jameston Taillon, Manny Machado, and Drew Pomeranz (this class was absolutely loaded)

2009 - Stephen Strasburg (also, some guy named Trout was drafted this year)

2008 - Eric Hosmer and Buster Posey. An argument can be made for both Beckham and Alvarez too

2007 - David Price, Mike Moustakas, and Matt Wieters

2006 - Evan Longoria. Picks 6-11 were much better, which include Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, and Max Scherzer

2005 - Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan Braun

2004 - Justin Verlander

2003 - Rickie Weeks

2002 - BJ Upton

 

And that's not including a few others who did end up having value as disappointing prospects, and there were plenty of guys who fell out of the top 5 due to other reasons - signability was a big thing in the early to mid aughts, which is why a guy like Rick Porcello fell as far as he did. The draft has changed considerably for the better over the past 5-10 years as a result.

 

No, getting a top 3 pick is absolutely necessary, and I think they'll ultimately pick 2nd. It'll be a tight race down the stretch with the Phillies.

 

My point is that picks 1-4 aren't sure fire to bring stars any moreso than 5-13. The bolded are the only guys I would call game changers, You always want to draft high but I'd rather draft 7-10 if it meant our young guys were playing well.

 

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QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 03:25 PM)
My point is that picks 1-4 aren't sure fire to bring stars any moreso than 5-13. The bolded are the only guys I would call game changers, You always want to draft high but I'd rather draft 7-10 if it meant our young guys were playing well.

 

I think you're underselling a few guys on this list. Rickie Weeks was a 2-3 WAR player with a WAR of 6 in 2010. In hindsight, yes, he was not worth it, but you can predict injuries and his talent and production while he was on the field was absolutely worth that of a #2 pick, even if he didn't age particularly gracefully. Melvin/BJ Upton too was well worth the #2 pick, as he was consistently a 4 WAR player for the Rays. Like Weeks, he also did not age well, but if you got 6 years from a top 5 pick like the Rays got from Upton, you take it and don't look back. Same with Justin Upton, who was a 4-5 WAR player during his prime, and he's still a solid player to this day. Alex Gordon was a late bloomer, but if you think the Royals were upset about taking him in the top 5, you'd be sorely mistaken, because he averaged 5.5 WAR per year from 2011-14. That is the definition of a game changer.

 

Also, you'd be insane to say Jon Gray wasn't worth it. There is no one player currently in the White Sox system that I wouldn't trade straight up for Jon Gray, and other than Moncada, Kopech, Jimenez, and Robert, there are no two players together I wouldn't trade for him. He's one of the best young pitchers in the league.

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QUOTE (ecupittfan @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 12:09 PM)
And Bumgarner is back today. That will help SF get a few more wins, if he stays off his motorcycles.

 

Thats why I kinda want Padres to take at least 2/3 this weekend. Bumgarner back should help Giants win some games next 2 months.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 01:34 PM)
Also, you'd be insane to say Jon Gray wasn't worth it. There is no one player currently in the White Sox system that I wouldn't trade straight up for Jon Gray, and other than Moncada, Kopech, Jimenez, and Robert, there are no two players together I wouldn't trade for him. He's one of the best young pitchers in the league.

 

I'd be interested to hear the rationale for this one.

 

Jon Gray is a 25 year old with a career ERA of 4.95. His FIP is consistently 3.6 and his K-rate is decent. It's not a Coors thing either, since he's worse on the road for his career than he is at home.

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QUOTE (StrykerSox @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 04:03 PM)
I'd be interested to hear the rationale for this one.

 

Jon Gray is a 25 year old with a career ERA of 4.95. His FIP is consistently 3.6 and his K-rate is decent. It's not a Coors thing either, since he's worse on the road for his career than he is at home.

 

He got absolutely throttled last night, which will happen. He'd pitched quite well prior to that.

 

Maybe I was a little overly aggressive about what I'd give up, but I would take Jon Gray in a second. Career FIP of 3.6, career xFIP 3.7. Way, way too early to write him off.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 12:15 PM)
I mean if you are looking for future hall of gamers maybe the last 15 years of top 5 picks were disappointing but I can think of more than 4 really good players in that span and they are some of best in league.

 

 

True but you can find really good players from 5-15, which is the point I'm making. My position is to caution people from losing their hair hoping we lose and everyone else wins to get a top 2 pick. History shows a few turn out really really good, some will be good, and the rest will be average to busts. I'd rather see us with the 7th pick if it meant some younger guys proved to be good pieces moving forward.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 03:13 PM)
He got absolutely throttled last night, which will happen. He'd pitched quite well prior to that.

 

Maybe I was a little overly aggressive about what I'd give up, but I would take Jon Gray in a second. Career FIP of 3.6, career xFIP 3.7. Way, way too early to write him off.

 

 

He has talent but I'm not putting him in the lived up to top 3 pick yet.

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QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Jul 14, 2017 -> 11:59 PM)
I get that scoreboard watching is fun, but in all honest picks 1-5 are a crapshoot anyway. From 2002-2014 there were four guys that lived up to the hype. I don't care where we draft, as long as we find the right player.

 

Of course there are many years were the 4 or 5 pick is better than the one or two but statistically the one pick is by far the most productive.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changin...of-draft-picks/

 

Also you get a lot more slot money to sign better second and third rounders. A high pick is no guarantee but the sox should at least make the top4 if not top3.

Edited by GermanSock

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QUOTE (StrykerSox @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 03:03 PM)
I'd be interested to hear the rationale for this one.

 

Jon Gray is a 25 year old with a career ERA of 4.95. His FIP is consistently 3.6 and his K-rate is decent. It's not a Coors thing either, since he's worse on the road for his career than he is at home.

 

I wish we could have swung a deal with the Rockies for Jeff Hoffman. He was supposed to be the #1 pick before Tommy John surgery right before the draft and dropped to 7th. He was rated higher than Rodon, was the #1 prospect out of the Cape League after soph year. Now look at what he is doing. 5-1 now, with 50Ks in 49 innings and a 1.15 ERA. He had 1 bad start of 3 innings 9 ER but outside of that he has a 2.70 ERA and 1.000 ratio. Better pitcher than Gray in my opinion.

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QUOTE (ecupittfan @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 08:03 PM)
I wish we could have swung a deal with the Rockies for Jeff Hoffman. He was supposed to be the #1 pick before Tommy John surgery right before the draft and dropped to 7th. He was rated higher than Rodon, was the #1 prospect out of the Cape League after soph year. Now look at what he is doing. 5-1 now, with 50Ks in 49 innings and a 1.15 ERA. He had 1 bad start of 3 innings 9 ER but outside of that he has a 2.70 ERA and 1.000 ratio. Better pitcher than Gray in my opinion.

He wasn't going to be #1. The question was if we would take him to save money or go for Rodon.

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Looks like 3-5 is the likely range with small odds of moving up to 2 or out of the top 5. That's fine IMO. Number one would be great but the Sox still have too much talent to lose 100+ it seems.

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 16, 2017 -> 09:23 AM)
Looks like 3-5 is the likely range with small odds of moving up to 2 or out of the top 5. That's fine IMO. Number one would be great but the Sox still have too much talent to lose 100+ it seems.

Give it a few weeks ;)

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jul 16, 2017 -> 11:23 AM)
Looks like 3-5 is the likely range with small odds of moving up to 2 or out of the top 5. That's fine IMO. Number one would be great but the Sox still have too much talent to lose 100+ it seems.

 

Including the last two losses, the Sox would have to play .320 ball after the break for 100 losses. That's tough to be that bad.

 

I think 93-96 losses is a fair guess, and hopefully 2nd to 4th pick. But yeah, 5th at worse.

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I think people are underestimating how bad this team is going to be once more of these guys get traded

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QUOTE (TRU @ Jul 16, 2017 -> 09:58 AM)
I think people are underestimating how bad this team is going to be once more of these guys get traded

It will be painfully glorious but hopefully result in wonderful things

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