2017-2018 MLB player movement rumors and reports

[Dick Allen]

This is incredible. Since Theo took over in 2012, the Cubs have only had 38 1/3 IP from pitchers Theo drafted or signed internationally.

[ptatc]

This is incredible. Since Theo took over in 2012, the Cubs have only had 38 1/3 IP from pitchers Theo drafted or signed internationally.

Deep pockets can go a long way. He definitely knows hitting though.

[LittleHurt05]

Deep pockets can go a long way. He definitely knows hitting though.

 

Their deep pockets helped with Lester, Lackey, and Hammel (I'm sure I missed another one or two). But so many of their pitching was acquired thanks to shrewd moves or having so many good hitting prospects, as Theo knows hitting. Hendricks, Arrieta, Strop, Rondon, Davis, Chapman, Montgomery, Edwards. All those guys pitched significant innings, none were free agent signings.

[Dick Allen]

Allen Hanson to the Giants. They are clearly going for it.

[EvilJester99]

Lefty Zach Duke reportedly has agreed to a deal with the Twins:

[southsider2k5]

This is pretty awesome.

 

ESPN‏Verified account @espn 12h12 hours ago The Diamondbacks' 2017 first-round pick paying off his parents' mortgage for Christmas will give you all the feels. (via @PavinSmith)

 

 

[southsider2k5]

MLB Trade Rumors‏ @mlbtraderumors 11h11 hours ago How slow has the free agent market been? Just 5 of top 20 2017-18 FAs have signed: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html …://https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...dictions.html … This time last year, only 5 of top 20 FAs had NOT yet signed: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/top-10-remaining-free-agents-2.html …://https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016...agents-2.html …

 

 

 

 

 

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

Man, If Arrieta is anywhere near the projected contract of 100 million I'd be interested in making a run at him. Kind of like what the Cubs did when they signed Lester. Everyone thought it was a year too early but it turned out to work in their favor.. 100 million for Arrieta seems very cheap.. Especially since Samardzija got 90 million after his tragic year with us.

 

[witesoxfan]

People are saying Longoria is going to be making a lot of money in his mid-30s yet want to go after another player next off-season and pay him almost double in his mid-30s? O.o

 

Yep, because the White Sox competitive window, which could be estimated to be between 2019 and 2025, line up almost perfectly with Machado's prime years. You either pay $300 million over 6 years, or you pay $300 million over 10 years, but you're still going to be spending $300 million. Why not lengthen the contract and spread his salary hit out rather than assuming a $50 million pricetag for 6 years?

[Bob Sacamano]

Yep, because the White Sox competitive window, which could be estimated to be between 2019 and 2025, line up almost perfectly with Machado's prime years. You either pay $300 million over 6 years, or you pay $300 million over 10 years, but you're still going to be spending $300 million. Why not lengthen the contract and spread his salary hit out rather than assuming a $50 million pricetag for 6 years?

 

My comment was mostly a joke. Although I actually don't think Longoria is overpaid.

Edited December 26, 2017 by soxfan2014

[witesoxfan]

My comment was mostly a joke. Although I actually don't think Longoria is overpaid.

 

Gotcha. I don't think he is overpaid either but there's not much surplus value there.

[Soha]

Man, If Arrieta is anywhere near the projected contract of 100 million I'd be interested in making a run at him. Kind of like what the Cubs did when they signed Lester. Everyone thought it was a year too early but it turned out to work in their favor.. 100 million for Arrieta seems very cheap.. Especially since Samardzija got 90 million after his tragic year with us.

 

I thought about this at the beginning of free agency as well. If there are no big takers, he might be worth biting on if the price is reasonable. And that's possible, with many of the big spending teams trying to stay under the luxury cap this year, in preparation for next year.

 

He's supposed to be a young 32 in terms of innings. Also I think there's a big hole on the team right now, where guys like Giolito, Kopech and company won't have a big mentor on the team when they come up, or in spring training. Maybe Shields can fill that role, but someone who can more lead by example sure wouldn't hurt.

[witesoxfan]

There is a lot about Arrieta that is trending in the wrong direction. That is a contract that I do believe the White Sox would regret very quickly.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

There is a lot about Arrieta that is trending in the wrong direction. That is a contract that I do believe the White Sox would regret very quickly.

 

Can you give me examples?

[Dick Allen]

Can you give me examples?

His innings have gone down, his ERA higher, walk rate higher, BAA higher, HR allowed, spiking, velocity down. He's still really good. You can't expect him to be what he was at his peak, but the trend is down, and for the White Sox to sign him, his best years are probably 2018 and 2019 , and at least in 2018, they really don't need him. To think you will get a bargain is nonsense. He is going to cost a lot for a long time.

[Soha]

His first half last year was medicore at best, bad at worst. He was one of the better pitchers in baseball after the all-star break if I remember right. That was interrupted by a trip to the DL late in the year. And he pitched well in the playoffs.

 

Maybe in the grand scheme of things he was trending the wrong way, but speaking of last year only, he trended in a good direction.

[witesoxfan]

Can you give me examples?

 

1) K% - strikeout rate has continually gone down

2014 - 27.2%

2015 - 27.1%

2016 - 23.9%

2017 - 23.1%

 

2) BB% - his walks peaked in 2016 and came down in 2017, but it's very possible to discern that he's throwing eminently more hittable pitches to avoid walks. It's still up from where he was previously.

2014 - 6.7%

2015 - 5.5%

2016 - 9.6%

2017 - 7.8%

 

3) GB% - Over the last 3 years, his groundball percentage has decreased, making hard hit balls much more likely to hurt.

2014 - 49.2%

2015 - 56.2%

2016 - 52.6%

2017 - 45.1%

 

4) FB% and velocity - Arrieta has increased his fastball usage over the past few seasons, while the velocity has dropped. Dependent upon what numbers you're using, this may also be classified as a sinker, but both his fastball and sinker have shown proportionally equal velocity drops. The effectiveness of the pitch also fell off considerably this year too.

2014 - 47.5% (93.5)

2015 - 50.7% (94.6)

2016 - 65.4% (93.7)

2017 - 63.9% (92.1)

 

5) Pull% - As a result of declining fastball velocity, teams are more easily getting the bats around and pulling pitches. Combine that with a decreasing groundball rate and, thus, an increasing flyball rate, and it's pretty easy to piece together why he put up a career high 14% HR/FB (though some of that is merely noise, which is why I haven't listed it, because HR/FB spikes and valleys come and go as the wind blows).

2014 - 34.5%

2015 - 34.3%

2016 - 38.6%

2017 - 40.5%

 

6) O-Swing% and O-Contact% - Over the past couple of years, Arrieta has been getting fewer swings outside of the zone, which are the ideal swings a pitcher can ask for, as contact is much worse and less likely to happen overall outside of the zone (duh). However, a recent development this past year was the increase in out of zone contact, which means hitters are more easily fighting pitches off and indicates, to me, that it's either easier to see the ball coming out of his hand and/or it's easier to catch up to. Extending at bats is always a good thing for a hitter.

2014 - 33% and 62.1%

2015 - 34.2% and 61.3%

2016 - 29.6% and 60.6%

2017 - 27.9% and 67%

 

7) Defense (Cubs defensive value). During his career with the Cubs, Arrieta has pitched in front of a phenomenal defense. The White Sox defense isn't bad, but it's nowhere near as good as the Cubs. That has potentially inflated his numbers as well and needs to be taken into consideration.

2014 - -4.6

2015 - 17.4

2016 - 69.0

2017 - 21.8

 

There are a few other issues, but I think that's a pretty good general summary.

[Quin]

Also, right handed pitchers is where the White Sox are most loaded at the moment.

[Squirmin' for Yermin]

I guess my thought process is that SP USUALLY go for a boat load of money but this offseason they aren't because teams want to get under the cap so that they can go nuts next offseason.. We would be signing him way under what he would have been signed for last offseason even if he came off producing the same results.. It's just an interesting idea. 100 million for a starter usually gets you Jeff Samardzija not Jake Arrieta.. So if he has fallen to 100 million because of the reasons stated above, it would make some sense to kick those tires

[caulfield12]

The White Sox try to never be on the wrong side of those pitching contracts...and the lessons of the Danks and Contreras deals probably stick with them as well.

 

$100-150 million invested in an Arrieta, that might even take the White Sox out of the running for one of the big names next year, or they'd have to go for the "fall back" options like a Josh Donaldson (compared to Machado/Arenado), which have typically blown up in their faces ala Dunn/LaRoche/Rios/Cabrera (veterans in their early 30's).

[LittleHurt05]

Also, right handed pitchers is where the White Sox are most loaded at the moment.

 

In what world are the Sox loaded with right handed pitching?

[Jerksticks]

In what world are the Sox loaded with right handed pitching?

This one. Earth

[LittleHurt05]

This one. Earth

 

I guess I don't hold James Shields in as high regard as others do. Giolito and Lopez are hardly proven at the major league level yet, and everybody hates Fulmer. That's hardly loaded, you can't assume minor league pitchers are gonna automatically kill it at the major league level. Kopech is hot stuff, but you don't ignore other major league pitchers because of him. He might hurt himself during a workout anyway.

 

[BlackSox13]

In what world are the Sox loaded with right handed pitching?

Pretty sure reference is to starting pitching. Shields, Fulmer, Lopez, Giolito, Covey is your starting five until we know what's up with Rodon. After those five there's Kopech, Hansen, Dunning and Cease. There's a lot of RH depth.

 

LH depth is Jordan Guerrero, Ian Clarkin and Bernardo Flores. None of which are ranked nearly as high as the RH depth.

 

There's definitely a shortage of LH starting pitchers in the Sox organization.

 

 

[ScootsMcGoots]

Pretty sure reference is to starting pitching. Shields, Fulmer, Lopez, Giolito, Covey is your starting five until we know what's up with Rodon. After those five there's Kopech, Hansen, Dunning and Cease. There's a lot of RH depth.

 

LH depth is Jordan Guerrero, Ian Clarkin and Bernardo Flores. None of which are ranked nearly as high as the RH depth.

 

There's definitely a shortage of LH starting pitchers in the Sox organization.

Which is odd, because I feel like they have had a plethora of them over the years, and dominant ones to boot.