The Avi Thread

[Eminor3rd]

Eminor: No problem. I care in this case because fundamentals have been so bad on the Sox since the last few years under Ozzie. It costs them games. Avi's baseball-sense, in my opinion is poor. Base running is part of those fundamental instincts and while to the eye he has improved slightly, to me, again, he's still bad at it and in his judgments.

 

It all has to weigh on Hahn's mind as he tried to decide if he wants to offer him an extension.

 

Can't argue with any of that.

[Eminor3rd]

This is the issue with the stat. How they determine how often they expect a runner to score is inherently flawed. Not every runner is the average of the league.

 

No, of course every runner isn't average, but I'm not sure why that would be relevant. This stat is using average as a baseline for comparison, and a runner that consistently advances more than average is rewarded and of course the opposite is true. Why would we want it any other way?

 

Granted: There are going to be outlier situations, such as when a ball takes an incredibly fortunate/unfortunate carom off the wall right to/away from a fielder. But the idea is that those things get ironed out over large samples. I think maybe your issue is to assume the stat measures true talent at every snapshot, which no one will claim. In fact, it's pretty standard to consider two and three years samples of baserunning data to be able to project future performance. What the stat DOES do is flat out say that this IS what happened on the field, in terms of expected run value, compared to the average player. It's a counting stat like so many others. It's no different than looking at homeruns, really -- a guy either did or didn't hit a certain number of homeruns. Whether you want to consider a single season of a homerun total as a measure of his true talent is up to many other factors.

 

I don't think anyone is really willing to point to Avi's UBR and say that it means he's a good baserunner now. But he DID put up an improved number this year, and so it is a relevant data point. More like a "FWIW" thing.

[ptatc]

No, of course every runner isn't average, but I'm not sure why that would be relevant. This stat is using average as a baseline for comparison, and a runner that consistently advances more than average is rewarded and of course the opposite is true. Why would we want it any other way?

Granted: There are going to be outlier situations, such as when a ball takes an incredibly fortunate/unfortunate carom off the wall right to/away from a fielder. But the idea is that those things get ironed out over large samples. I think maybe your issue is to assume the stat measures true talent at every snapshot, which no one will claim. In fact, it's pretty standard to consider two and three years samples of baserunning data to be able to project future performance. What the stat DOES do is flat out say that this IS what happened on the field, in terms of expected run value, compared to the average player. It's a counting stat like so many others. It's no different than looking at homeruns, really -- a guy either did or didn't hit a certain number of homeruns. Whether you want to consider a single season of a homerun total as a measure of his true talent is up to many other factors.

 

I don't think anyone is really willing to point to Avi's UBR and say that it means he's a good baserunner now. But he DID put up an improved number this year, and so it is a relevant data point. More like a "FWIW" thing.

It's relevant because that is the information they are using to determine the run expectancy. They are using the average of how all players in the league are performing to determine a single number. They are using that number to determine if a base runner is doing what he supposed to be doing to maximize his chance of scoring. It really doesn't make any sense to determine if someone is a good baserunner based on how other runners score. There are going to be many not just a few outliers. Certain base runners should advance and others shouldn't based on the concepts discussed. A runner should not be penalized for not taking a base when it's a smart play not to, even though many others would.

 

You should want it a different way by watching if the runners makes a smart decision, regardless of the fact that 15 others players on the team would have made a different decision which would have been right for them.

 

He probably put up better numbers because he looked healthier this year, subsequently was faster and scored more.

 

the whole discussion started when someone stated that Avi wasn't a good base runner and someone else countered that the UBR says he is. Someone countered that the eye test said he wasn't and another poster stated that his eye test wasn't as good as the stat.

 

My whole point, as it always is with these subjective stats, is that the stat is not the beginning and the end and the eye test has value because many of these stats that some lean on so heavily should not be taken as fact.

Edited November 29, 2017 by ptatc

[hi8is]

I'll add this... I've seen Avi make some completely bonehead baserunning blunders and noted a few last year. That said, I did feel that last year he was more focused even on the bases and didn't fall as hard as in years past.

 

I won't offer any stats.

[Dominikk85]

I would sell high on him now.

 

he has made some really improvements (physically and Approach) but still he was quite lucky last year and still is a bad Defender so that isn't a Bonus if his hitting Comes down.

 

his BABIP was 392 which lead the Majors I think. he always was a high BABIP guy but 330 is more realisitic than 390. his xwOBA was 40 Points higher than his wOBA and his projections have him at a 110 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR next year. that is a useful MLB Player but still basically average, he won't repeat the 4 WAR, 137 wRC+ unless he increases his power (without losing much on average).

[Eminor3rd]

You should want it a different way by watching if the runners makes a smart decision, regardless of the fact that 15 others players on the team would have made a different decision which would have been right for them.

 

Right, but all that stuff is baked in. If a guy is a "dumb" baserunner and gets himself thrown out at bad times, he's going to get docked. If he's slow but "smart" and finds opportune times to get extra bases anyway, he's going to get credit. If he's slow but "smart" and simply doesn't ever advance, he's not going to get credit because he doesn't advance -- but he won't get hit as hard as he would if he created an out. It doesn't matter what combination of athleticism or instincts leads to the result -- a guy either creates value on the basepaths or subtracts value on the basepaths. All of that will show up in UBR/wSB, each event conveniently compared at precisely the level that they typically produce or subtract runs. How much worse is it to get thrown out than to simply NOT advance? That is EXACTLY the type of situation where linear weights shines the most.

 

Kendry Morales is probably the slowest dude in the whole league. He probably knows that he should practically never advance more than one base in any situation. So he clogs up the bases, turning RBI hits into non-RBI hits. If a team wants to acquire him, and baserunning comes up, should they give him positive marks? Should he be considered a plus on the basepaths? Of course not. His "smarts" very well help him, but at the end of the day, he kills you on the bases.

 

The claim that "Avi has bad baserunning instincts" and the claim that "Avi produced positive value on the bases last year" can both be true, but the former is merely an aspect of the latter.

[ptatc]

Right, but all that stuff is baked in. If a guy is a "dumb" baserunner and gets himself thrown out at bad times, he's going to get docked. If he's slow but "smart" and finds opportune times to get extra bases anyway, he's going to get credit. If he's slow but "smart" and simply doesn't ever advance, he's not going to get credit because he doesn't advance -- but he won't get hit as hard as he would if he created an out. It doesn't matter what combination of athleticism or instincts leads to the result -- a guy either creates value on the basepaths or subtracts value on the basepaths. All of that will show up in UBR/wSB, each event conveniently compared at precisely the level that they typically produce or subtract runs. How much worse is it to get thrown out than to simply NOT advance? That is EXACTLY the type of situation where linear weights shines the most.

 

Kendry Morales is probably the slowest dude in the whole league. He probably knows that he should practically never advance more than one base in any situation. So he clogs up the bases, turning RBI hits into non-RBI hits. If a team wants to acquire him, and baserunning comes up, should they give him positive marks? Should he be considered a plus on the basepaths? Of course not. His "smarts" very well help him, but at the end of the day, he kills you on the bases.

 

The claim that "Avi has bad baserunning instincts" and the claim that "Avi produced positive value on the bases last year" can both be true, but the former is merely an aspect of the latter.

This was the whole point. You can't just use this stat and say he was a good base runner. This stat doesn't necessarily measure that.

 

It's not a good thing to have bad base running instincts but produce a positive value on the bases. There is something wrong with the way the stat is calculated if people are going to use it to say they were a good base runner or the person is using the stat incorrectly.

 

The other issue with the stat is that you cannot say that AVI was a better base runner this year compared to last year with this stat. The stat uses the performance of the rest of the league in the calculation. How do you know the rest of the league didn't do worse this year and AVI stayed the same? That would show an improvement in Avi's measurement for this year. They would need to compile the data from both years to truly get his measure.

 

As I said before, I'm not trying to say that stat is useless you just need it in context like all stats. It has value. However, saying that AVI is better because this stat says so and the eye test means nothing is a poor way to look at it. It's a good place to start but you shouldn't discount other information just because this stat say so.

[Soha]

I would sell high on him now.

 

he has made some really improvements (physically and Approach) but still he was quite lucky last year and still is a bad Defender so that isn't a Bonus if his hitting Comes down.

 

his BABIP was 392 which lead the Majors I think. he always was a high BABIP guy but 330 is more realisitic than 390. his xwOBA was 40 Points higher than his wOBA and his projections have him at a 110 wRC+ and 1.7 WAR next year. that is a useful MLB Player but still basically average, he won't repeat the 4 WAR, 137 wRC+ unless he increases his power (without losing much on average).

 

I don't agree that he's a bad defender. I think he's at least average. He was 2nd in outfield assists in baseball last year. I didn't see a lot of bonehead plays. And I think his better physical shape allowed him to get to more balls as well.

[southsider2k5]

I don't agree that he's a bad defender. I think he's at least average. He was 2nd in outfield assists in baseball last year. I didn't see a lot of bonehead plays. And I think his better physical shape allowed him to get to more balls as well.

 

He is a slightly below average RF the last couple of years according to fangraphs, and has put up slightly above average baserunner numbers during the same span. While not "good" he has made some clear improvement and is at least tolerable out there if he continues to hit at some amount.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF

[Eminor3rd]

This was the whole point. You can't just use this stat and say he was a good base runner. This stat doesn't necessarily measure that.

 

It's not a good thing to have bad base running instincts but produce a positive value on the bases. There is something wrong with the way the stat is calculated if people are going to use it to say they were a good base runner or the person is using the stat incorrectly.

 

The other issue with the stat is that you cannot say that AVI was a better base runner this year compared to last year with this stat. The stat uses the performance of the rest of the league in the calculation. How do you know the rest of the league didn't do worse this year and AVI stayed the same? That would show an improvement in Avi's measurement for this year. They would need to compile the data from both years to truly get his measure.

 

As I said before, I'm not trying to say that stat is useless you just need it in context like all stats. It has value. However, saying that AVI is better because this stat says so and the eye test means nothing is a poor way to look at it. It's a good place to start but you shouldn't discount other information just because this stat say so.

 

I think we're just arguing different things. The first bolded line doesn't make any sense to me at all. Your second bolded line is one I've tried to address with every reply but have apparently failed. The eye test can help you diagnose things and help you project things, but it cannot measure value in an objective and normalized way like the stat can. They are simply not useful for the same thing. You may be correct that he makes too many bad decisions on the basepaths based on your personal observations, but you cannot make any remotely convincing case about his net baserunning value based on your personal observations. Even a seasoned scout who watched him in person couldn't. And if you're evaluating the value a player can bring to a team, you are concerned about his net baserunning value much more than any single component of it, unless you feel like you can improve said component to positively affect the net value.

 

I think the actual argument you'd make against dunts or whoever it was that posted the stat originally would be:

 

"Sure, he posted a positive value this year, but it was a barely positive value and the first such instance in his career. Based on (1) the bone-headed decisions I've watched him make over the years, (2) the precedent set by the rest of his career, and (3) the fact that Bsr stats tend to take multiple seasons to become predictive, I think it's far more likely that last year was a fluke than it is that Avi has made a substantial and sustainable improvement on the basepaths."

 

And that argument makes a ton of sense and I honestly would probably believe it. But it isn't because the stats being used are junk.

[witesoxfan]

What a time to be alive - Eminor is defending Avisail Garcia.

[Eminor3rd]

What a time to be alive - Eminor is defending Avisail Garcia.

 

I almost forgot which player we were talking about a couple times.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I almost forgot which player we were talking about a couple times.

Maybe my pro-Avi stance the last few years and his very good season is wearing you down . One more very good year from him and I might even be able to say " told ya so. "

Edited November 30, 2017 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Eminor3rd]

Maybe my pro-Avi stance the last few years and his very good season is wearing you down . One more very good year from him and I might even be able to say " told ya so. "

 

If so, man, I'll gladly wear it. I'm still not on board, simply because I saw better results this year from the same old (in my eyes) flawed process, and I just can't see the objective evidence that it'll continue.

 

But I've always said I hope I'm wrong about him, and I really do.

[Dominikk85]

I don't think baserunning is a factor either way in his value. He is neither really good nor bad.

[Y2Jimmy0]

This is an excellent piece by Eno Sarris at The Athletic about why Oakland shouldn't trade for Avi: https://theathletic.com/170936/2017/12/01/h...avisail-garcia/

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If so, man, I'll gladly wear it. I'm still not on board, simply because I saw better results this year from the same old (in my eyes) flawed process, and I just can't see the objective evidence that it'll continue.

 

But I've always said I hope I'm wrong about him, and I really do.

My question to you is if the process is so flawed how did he do soooo much better than anything he had previously done? I can understand the flawed process yielding incrementally better results but not to the extent that he blew previous numbers away.

[Whisox05]

Market for #WhiteSox's Avisail Garcia is heating up, and Leury Garcia is appealing to some teams as well

https://twitter.com/670TheScore/status/940755173131079680

[chitownsportsfan]

Market for #WhiteSox's Avisail Garcia is heating up, and Leury Garcia is appealing to some teams as well

https://twitter.com/670TheScore/status/940755173131079680

 

 

yea that headline has absolutely no backing from the text of the article. Typical Bruce. It has two quotes from Hahn and neither mentions Avi. If the market is "heating up" it's probably because it's the Winter Meetings and the stove is turned on for every club.

[chitownsportsfan]

My question to you is if the process is so flawed how did he do soooo much better than anything he had previously done? I can understand the flawed process yielding incrementally better results but not to the extent that he blew previous numbers away.

 

luck and better defense and running. Avi improved, but he improved into a 2 WAR starter. Not a 4 WAR star. There is like .0000001 chance he has a .397 BABIP next year. Regress that down to a still high .340 and suddenly he's a 2 WAR RF with a 270/330/450 line.

Edited December 13, 2017 by chitownsportsfan

[greg775]

Market for #WhiteSox's Avisail Garcia is heating up, and Leury Garcia is appealing to some teams as well

https://twitter.com/670TheScore/status/940755173131079680

Hahn is licking his chops to trade Avi and Abreu and complete the tearing down. Then the heat's on him to get those younguns to the majors and start winning. Oh wait, the heat's not on GMs who rebuild. Fans love the unknown and the window of patience will be at least five more years with Sox fans who like all fans love the rebuild.

[Bob Sacamano]

Hahn is licking his chops to trade Avi and Abreu and complete the tearing down. Then the heat's on him to get those younguns to the majors and start winning. Oh wait, the heat's not on GMs who rebuild. Fans love the unknown and the window of patience will be at least five more years with Sox fans who like all fans love the rebuild.

 

Alright man time to get off the carousel. How many times do we need to read this exact quote from you?

 

[BlackSox13]

Alright man time to get off the carousel.

I got dibs on your periwinkle blue unicorn!

[Bob Sacamano]

I got dibs on your periwinkle blue unicorn!

 

Lol

[Lemon_44]

Alright man time to get off the carousel. How many times do we need to read this exact quote from you?

I don't know but how many times do I have to read about WAR being the be all, end all to a players value?

 

I don't get the dismay with Garcia. I've seen people wanting Delmonico playing rather than Avi. That's just wrong. Delmonico will never approach a year like Garcia just had and is not near the plyer.

 

I heard Carlos Pena last night talking about Ozuna and how teams need to let players develop because he was sent down to the minors a couple years ago, made adjustments, and now is the most coveted available trade chip out there.

 

I also heard a GM, think it was Shapiro, talking about a prospect comparing to a current player on their roster. He mentioned how the prospect was in the minors, while at the same age, the other guy was already in the league. Everybody is high on Eloy, and rightfully so, but at his age in high A and AA, Avi was already playing in the bigs. Now that Avi seems to have figured things out.....trade him. Makes zero sense to me.