Abreu trade "unlikely"

[Bob Sacamano]

Why can't we take on JBJ and try to flip him later? If our scouts believe he's closer to the hitter he was in 2015/2016 (wRC+ of 120ish) than last year (wRC+ of 90), then he's seems like an incredible buy low type guy. I would most definitely need a secondary piece that offers some long-term potential like Chavis, but a deal like this could make a ton of sense for us. Again, got to trust your scounts on this one.

 

You really want a "buy-low type guy" to be the first piece in an Abreu deal?

[Balta1701]

JBJ right now is a CF coming off a 2.3 WAR season. To a team with a CF weakness, that's a useful piece right now, without thinking about any ceiling. They don't have anything I'm interested in right now outside of their big leaguers, but for the Cubs - he's an upgrade on Almora just for doing that.

[Chicago White Sox]

I doubt we could get JBJ + anything of significance. We could always hold JBJ and flip later, sure...but his clock will be ticking. Unless he has a huge year, the best time to trade him for max value would be now.

 

 

You really want a "buy-low type guy" to be the first piece in an Abreu deal?

First off, let me say that I don't think the Red Sox would give up much beyond JBJ for Abreu. I'm just saying that if I'm the White Sox that's the type of return I'd need to give up someone as valuable to our organization as Jose. Having said that, it's real easy to make an argument that JBJ is the more valuable asset. Even without improvement with the bat, he's got an extra year of team control and will be paid a helluva lot less than Jose. That doesn't even account for the fact that JBJ plays a premium position while 1B is loaded with options (albeit most of them lesser). I mean most of the analytics community thinks the Red Sox would be crazy to even do a 1 for 1 trade and that's with projection systems like Steamer predicting a partial bounce-back for JBJ. Despite all that, I'd still be hesitant to trade Abreu in a one for one deal. But give me that second piece like Chavis and suddenly I become more willing to disrupt my clubhouse and make a trade. Again, I don't see Boston doing this, although I've seen some Red Sox fans suggest they'd be ok with such a deal. Their window is quickly closing and a prospect like Chavis shouldn't stand in their way of making a significant upgrade to their lineup today. I guess we'll see how desperate DD is now that the Yankees have added Stanton and have more moves to come.

[steveno89]

First off, let me say that I don't think the Red Sox would give up much beyond JBJ for Abreu. I'm just saying that if I'm the White Sox that's the type of return I'd need to give up someone as valuable to our organization as Jose. Having said that, it's real easy to make an argument that JBJ is the more valuable asset. Even without improvement with the bat, he's got an extra year of team control and will be paid a helluva lot less than Jose. That doesn't even account for the fact that JBJ plays a premium position while 1B is loaded with options (albeit most of them lesser). I mean most of the analytics community thinks the Red Sox would be crazy to even do a 1 for 1 trade and that's with projection systems like Steamer predicting a partial bounce-back for JBJ. Despite all that, I'd still be hesitant to trade Abreu in a one for one deal. But give me that second piece like Chavis and suddenly I become more willing to disrupt my clubhouse and make a trade. Again, I don't see Boston doing this, although I've seen some Red Sox fans suggest they'd be ok with such a deal. Their window is quickly closing and a prospect like Chavis shouldn't stand in their way of making a significant upgrade to their lineup today. I guess we'll see how desperate DD is now that the Yankees have added Stanton and have more moves to come.

 

I don't love the fit of JBJ as we would be banking on him bouncing back and then being able to deal him in the future for a prospect return. I just do not love the fit when moving Abreu.

[Bob Sacamano]

Rockies in on Santana.

Edited December 11, 2017 by soxfan2014

[asindc]

Bradley is controlled for only 1 more year than Abreu. Red Sox have an alarming lack of power.

It's a more a question of why the Whitesox would want to trade Abreu for Bradley.

 

Exactly. Abreu is clearly the better player and nothing either player has done throughout their careers suggests that will change in the next 2 years.

 

[asindc]

Why can't we take on JBJ and try to flip him later? If our scouts believe he's closer to the hitter he was in 2015/2016 (wRC+ of 120ish) than last year (wRC+ of 90), then he's seems like an incredible buy low type guy. I would most definitely need a secondary piece that offers some long-term potential like Chavis, but a deal like this could make a ton of sense for us. Again, got to trust your scounts on this one.

 

Why should we be the team to take the risk on JBJ?

 

[steveno89]

Why should we be the team to take the risk on JBJ?

 

We won't be. No reason to deal Abreu for a package involving JBJ

[Chicago White Sox]

Why should we be the team to take the risk on JBJ?

What risk are you referring to? He was still like a 2.3 WAR player despite a down offensive year. If you guys think Abreu is the better or more valuable player that’s completely fine, but let’s not act like JBJ is some bum and don’t ignore the fact he’s younger, cheaper, & under control for an additional year.

[Balta1701]

What risk are you referring to? He was still like a 2.3 WAR player despite a down offensive year. If you guys think Abreu is the better or more valuable player that’s completely fine, but let’s not act like JBJ is some bum and don’t ignore the fact he’s younger, cheaper, & under control for an additional year.

So why do the White Sox need a 1st year arb, 2.3 WAR center fielder in 2018? Isn't that 2.3 WAR basically going to waste if he does the same thing?

[Chicago White Sox]

So why do the White Sox need a 1st year arb, 2.3 WAR center fielder in 2018? Isn't that 2.3 WAR basically going to waste if he does the same thing?

I mean, I've kind of walked through this multiple times now, but the idea would be to buy low and take advantage of a desperate Red Sox front office. Most of the analytics community believes JBJ is the superior asset because he's younger, cheaper, under an additional year of control, and plays a premium position. I myself personally would probably avoid doing a 1 for 1 swap because I place significant value on what Abreu does off the field. Having said that, if the Red Sox gave me a secondary piece that was too good to pass up (Chavis being my example), I'd likely take such a deal and hope for JBJ's offensive game to rebound a little bit and look into trading at the deadline or next offseason. It's usually not too hard to find a taker for a talented, fairly young CF. Again, this all assumes my scouts believe that JBJ is likely to rebound and that I can get a nice secondary piece as part of the deal.

[fredmanrique]

3 way?

 

Boston seems to want to sign JDM. Move benintendi to CF

 

Send JBJ off to Arizona for example, Abreu to Boston we try to net Pavin Smith along with Chavis, maybe Groome

 

If you can get 3 top 100s for Abreu, that is a lot. More than we should expect

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I mean, I've kind of walked through this multiple times now, but the idea would be to buy low and take advantage of a desperate Red Sox front office. Most of the analytics community believes JBJ is the superior asset because he's younger, cheaper, under an additional year of control, and plays a premium position. I myself personally would probably avoid doing a 1 for 1 swap because I place significant value on what Abreu does off the field. Having said that, if the Red Sox gave me a secondary piece that was too good to pass up (Chavis being my example), I'd likely take such a deal and hope for JBJ's offensive game to rebound a little bit and look into trading at the deadline or next offseason. It's usually not too hard to find a taker for a talented, fairly young CF. Again, this all assumes my scouts believe that JBJ is likely to rebound and that I can get a nice secondary piece as part of the deal.

 

Red Sox don't really have any prospects I really want added to a potential package personally.

Edited December 11, 2017 by soxfan2014

[Dick Allen]

The last 3 seasons Abreu has put up a combined 9.1 WAR. JBJ, 10.5.

 

JBJ is cheaper and signed a year longer, and plays gold glove defense at a premium position. Normally, you would do this trade if it were available, 1 for 1, but if Abreu's leadership, something Hahn said is big, but won't trump production, and JBJ, taking a little step back offensevily last season, gets you another interesting prospect, you do it in a heartbeat. Bring Jose back in 2 years if he is still productive.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Chicago White Sox]

The last 3 seasons Abreu has put up a combined 9.1 WAR. JBJ, 10.5.

 

JBJ is cheaper and signed a year longer, and plays gold glove defense at a premium position. Normally, you would do this trade if it were available, 1 for 1, but if Abreu's leadership, something Hahn said is big, but won't trump production, and JBJ, taking a little step back offensevily last season, gets you another interesting prospect, you do it in a heartbeat. Bring Jose back in 2 years if he is still productive.

Yeah, this is exactly what I've been trying to say. If someone is willing to overpay you for Jose, I wouldn't pass up on the deal just because the main asset isn't a perfect fit for us right now. We'd have plenty of time to turn him into other pieces.

[Lillian]

Just curious: How much do you think JBJ would cost, if he were a free agent? Same question for Abreu.

[Chicago White Sox]

Just curious: How much do you think JBJ would cost, if he were a free agent? Same question for Abreu.

Honestly, I'd say Jose would get roughly $20M/per and JBJ maybe around $16M or $17M. However, with any semblance of a rebound that number shoots up quite a bit for JBJ.

[Dick Allen]

Just curious: How much do you think JBJ would cost, if he were a free agent? Same question for Abreu.

The problem with JBJ is his agent. Boras. But he will make significantly less than Abreu in 2018, and 2019. That is money that can go elsewhere or saved in the piggy bank to use when it is time to win.

 

It may be that we are all nuts and Neither Dombrowski or Hahn would be interested in such a swap.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Dam8610]

The last 3 seasons Abreu has put up a combined 9.1 WAR. JBJ, 10.5.

 

JBJ is cheaper and signed a year longer, and plays gold glove defense at a premium position. Normally, you would do this trade if it were available, 1 for 1, but if Abreu's leadership, something Hahn said is big, but won't trump production, and JBJ, taking a little step back offensevily last season, gets you another interesting prospect, you do it in a heartbeat. Bring Jose back in 2 years if he is still productive.

 

But then you have the exact same problem you have now, a player who doesn't fit your contention window who you'll likely have to trade to get pieces that will help the rebuild. By 2020, Bradley is a 30 year old CF in the final year of arbitration who might have lost some of his defensive value and may not have recovered any of his value with the bat. He's then a free agent in 2021. The only way he makes sense as part of an Abreu trade is if you believe his defensive value will hold into his mid 30s and you sign an extension with him immediately after the trade.

[fredmanrique]

that's pretty in line with what I was thinking.

 

Dexter Fowler got 5/82. Feels like OBJ

 

Abreu is encarnacion, he got 3/60 but more years, like 5/100

 

 

 

[Dick Allen]

But then you have the exact same problem you have now, a player who doesn't fit your contention window who you'll likely have to trade to get pieces that will help the rebuild. By 2020, Bradley is a 30 year old CF in the final year of arbitration who might have lost some of his defensive value and may not have recovered any of his value with the bat. He's then a free agent in 2021. The only way he makes sense as part of an Abreu trade is if you believe his defensive value will hold into his mid 30s and you sign an extension with him immediately after the trade.

He does for at least one season if not 2. Th fact is, if he bounces back to his 2016 level, you could get a ton for him in a year. The White Sox have always been quite fond of him.

 

It is interesting Jose Contreras has been added to help Latin players assimilate. Maybe he will be more geared toward minor leaguers, or maybe they are preparing to fill the void Abreu would leave behind.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Dick Allen

[steveno89]

Just curious: How much do you think JBJ would cost, if he were a free agent? Same question for Abreu.

 

I'd guess 5/85 for JBJ

 

and 5/100 for Abreu if each were a free agent right now

[bmags]

I'd guess 5/85 for JBJ

 

and 5/100 for Abreu if each were a free agent right now

 

A 27 year old all star CF is getting either more years or way higher AAV.

 

 

[steveno89]

A 27 year old all star CF is getting either more years or way higher AAV.

 

If you believe in the bat, then sure. Defense does not tend to age very well, and if you take away the plus defense I don't think his bat is good enough to be a corner regular.

 

JBJ (2017) is essentially a major league average starting center fielder, which is a valuable player. I wouldn't see him getting over $100 million on the open market as roughly a 3 WAR player currently.

[username]

JBJ really screams Austin Jackson to me. The swing and miss profile, plus general hot and cold nature give him some serious long-term hitting risk. Plus, if his athleticism starts to slip at all, I’m not sure he can maintain his value without hitting markedly better. I know he’s only 27, but defense-first center fielders don’t exactly age well.

 

Of course, guys like this also sometimes become George Springer. The problem is, he’s clearly not a natural hitter if you watch him. His swing is kind of clumsy and he seriously struggles with offspeed stuff. Every Red Sox fan I know can’t stand him, as he tends to beat up on bad pitching and disappear against anyone with good stuff.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Username