White Sox have shown interest in Machado

[Balta1701]

Are there any players in our system youd be willing to trade for Machado? Is there a starting point for you or are you against trading anybody for him?

I'm almost against the concept. I guess you could talk me out of Adams maybe? On the grounds of you could get more than that at the deadline even if he has a rough first half like he had last year, but even someone like that is an expensive risk. But seriously I really dislike this as an idea. You're spending $17 million and giving up players for the imaginary idea that he'll do something other than take the best offer made to him on the FA market next year when he's worked hard to get to the point where he can cash in on the best deal? The entire idea sounds like Malarkey to me.

[fathom]

I'm almost against the concept. I guess you could talk me out of Adams maybe? On the grounds of you could get more than that at the deadline even if he has a rough first half like he had last year, but even someone like that is an expensive risk. But seriously I really dislike this as an idea. You're spending $17 million and giving up players for the imaginary idea that he'll do something other than take the best offer made to him on the FA market next year when he's worked hard to get to the point where he can cash in on the best deal? The entire idea sounds like Malarkey to me.

 

It seems like something a small market team would do and then cry poor when the free agent takes a bigger offer elsewhere

[asindc]

This trade concept only makes sense if you think the organization can know which ones will work and which ones won't.

 

Edit: Oh and I'm really down on Rodon if that counts.

 

No organization knows that. Every organization guesses wrong in either direction on a number of prospects.

 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

Understood. Comment was directed to Heyman. Boston and New York seems like the safe answer but in this case probably not the most logical.

All good man I know where you were directing it. I just wanted to clarify a little more because I was just waking up and probably didn’t explain it in the best way

[Sockin]

I think he ends up with the Cardinals if he's traded at all. If they are in on him they have no reason not to try to top our offer. There's too much chatter with us to end up with him IMO.

[Dick Allen]

Keep in mind the White Sox sign far more free agents that have never played for them, then traded for guys a year away "to see the culture" and then signed them. Freddy Garcia is the only one I can think of off the top of my head, and he had extenuating circumstances.

[yesterday333]

I'm almost against the concept. I guess you could talk me out of Adams maybe? On the grounds of you could get more than that at the deadline even if he has a rough first half like he had last year, but even someone like that is an expensive risk. But seriously I really dislike this as an idea. You're spending $17 million and giving up players for the imaginary idea that he'll do something other than take the best offer made to him on the FA market next year when he's worked hard to get to the point where he can cash in on the best deal? The entire idea sounds like Malarkey to me.

I guess I see it different. My guess is there will be a few teams who offer similar contracts and if we can set ourselves apart, while offering the same amount as another team. I mean if he likes it with us and we offer the same as another team he will choose us.

[bmags]

I'm almost against the concept. I guess you could talk me out of Adams maybe? On the grounds of you could get more than that at the deadline even if he has a rough first half like he had last year, but even someone like that is an expensive risk. But seriously I really dislike this as an idea. You're spending $17 million and giving up players for the imaginary idea that he'll do something other than take the best offer made to him on the FA market next year when he's worked hard to get to the point where he can cash in on the best deal? The entire idea sounds like Malarkey to me.

 

Assuming Sox could offer something close to market value, or at least within 10% of it, what percentage do we think having Machado here for a year increases his likelihood of accepting our deal over others?

 

I can't imagine it's more than 15% increase in the likelihood.

 

So what would I pay for that 15% increase? It's real low. It's like Bernardo Flores low.

 

Which is completely unfair to Baltimore because I'm not paying them at all for his 2018 production, which means essentially nothing.

[Dick Allen]

I guess I see it different. My guess is there will be a few teams who offer similar contracts and if we can set ourselves apart, while offering the same amount as another team. I mean if he likes it with us and we offer the same as another team he will choose us.

If the White Sox are telling you they need him to check out everything before he hits free agency, and he will fall in love and sign an extension, they are also telling you they aren't going to be the highest offer if he gets to free agency. And he's getting to free agency.

[bmags]

Keep in mind the White Sox sign far more free agents that have never played for them, then traded for guys a year away "to see the culture" and then signed them. Freddy Garcia is the only one I can think of off the top of my head, and he had extenuating circumstances.

 

My best guess is it's experiences like Jose Contreras too, where they came from the big market marque clubs and then had a more satisfying experience with white sox and now are ambassadors. Even though they didn't sign, maybe they think that anecdotal evidence from former players makes them have that opinion.

[fathom]

If the White Sox are telling you they need him to check out everything before he hits free agency, and he will fall in love and sign an extension, they are also telling you they aren't going to be the highest offer if he gets to free agency. And he's getting to free agency.

 

Still think it's going to be hard to make him like the culture when the team is a threat to lose 100 games

[Bob Sacamano]

I think he ends up with the Cardinals if he's traded at all. If they are in on him they have no reason not to try to top our offer. There's too much chatter with us to end up with him IMO.

 

Same. They've been linked to Donaldson for months it seems. Might as well pay a little extra and get the better, healthier player.

[Soha]

I think he ends up with the Cardinals if he's traded at all. If they are in on him they have no reason not to try to top our offer. There's too much chatter with us to end up with him IMO.

 

The Cardinals are probably the best case scenario for Sox fans. For starters, it sticks it to the Cubs a bit. But even better, there seems to be a growing trend of players not wanting to sign in St. Louis longterm. That probably increases the chance that he doesn't re-sign during the season....thus keeping alive our true hope of the Sox signing him next winter.

[bmags]

The Cardinals are probably the best case scenario for Sox fans. For starters, it sticks it to the Cubs a bit. But even better, there seems to be a growing trend of players not wanting to sign in St. Louis longterm. That probably increases the chance that he doesn't re-sign during the season....thus keeping alive our true hope of the Sox signing him next winter.

 

A-ha! Yes, this is exactly why I've been wanting the cardinals too.

[fathom]

The Cardinals are probably the best case scenario for Sox fans. For starters, it sticks it to the Cubs a bit. But even better, there seems to be a growing trend of players not wanting to sign in St. Louis longterm. That probably increases the chance that he doesn't re-sign during the season....thus keeping alive our true hope of the Sox signing him next winter.

 

Excellent thought

[Chicago White Sox]

I'm almost against the concept. I guess you could talk me out of Adams maybe? On the grounds of you could get more than that at the deadline even if he has a rough first half like he had last year, but even someone like that is an expensive risk. But seriously I really dislike this as an idea. You're spending $17 million and giving up players for the imaginary idea that he'll do something other than take the best offer made to him on the FA market next year when he's worked hard to get to the point where he can cash in on the best deal? The entire idea sounds like Malarkey to me.

You continue to ignore the fact that multiple teams will likely be making very similar offers. If it comes down to non-financial factors then him being familiar with our players & coaching staff could be the difference. Unfortunately since you’re unable to value that benefit with a basic formula, you’ve decided it’s essentially worth nothing. Thank god our front office isn’t as by the book as you and doesn’t assume the “outbid everyone” strategy alone is going to work when going up against teams like the Dodgers or Yankees. I applaud creativity and this is a smart strategy assuming the right price.

[Dick Allen]

You continue to ignore the fact that multiple teams will likely be making very similar offers. If it comes down to non-financial factors then him being familiar with our players & coaching staff could be the difference. Unfortunately since you’re unable to value that benefit with a basic formula, you’ve decided it’s essentially worth nothing. Thank god our front office isn’t as by the book as you and doesn’t assume the “outbid everyone” strategy alone is going to work when going up against teams like the Dodgers or Yankees. I applaud creativity and this is a smart strategy assuming the right price.

Are there examples where this has worked in the past with top of the line guys? And if this will net you a guy like Machado, shouldn't the "right price" be pretty steep?

 

I also think if the White Sox have to make this move, it is admitting they won't be the top bidders. KW was upset he wasn't given the opportunity to speak to Ohtani and convince him to take the White Sox $300k. Organizations that don't think money talks are kidding themselves. Playing for a 76-86 White Sox team in 2018 isn't going to convince him to sign with the team if the Sox offer isn't the highest or pretty damn close.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Dick Allen

[kwolf68]

This rumor makes absolutely no sense. I'd love Manny, but only when the Sox are ready to compete. They have a plan and offering a package of some of our top prospects (which is exactly what the Orioles will want) for a single hitter makes no sense. The Sox literally have a bunch of unknowns heading for the rotation, some awesome young arms, but still unknowns. You get Manny when you are pretty confident that you're ready to compete. This deal simply makes NO SENSE, which leads me to believe would Hahn be talking to the Orioles as a proxie for another team (Yankees) who he'd flip Manny over to? Trade off good prospects to Os for Manny, get great ones from a team who should be able to pay for Manny (Yankees) and proceed with the current model? The Sox talent is down in the farm, SOME of those kids are gonna make it, SOME will not. If we deplete those numbers the chances of the Sox being a very poor team (even with Manny) goes up.

 

Sox rotation is going to be what? Gio and Lopez right now headline it, but they are still developing especially concerning the number of innings forced to pitch. Then you have what...Shields as your next man up? Fulmer and Covey are in the mix. Who knows there. Eventually Rodon and Kopech may well form the top end of the rotation, but Rodon is out half the year and Kopech may not be quite ready. I think Alec Hansen, if the Sox can get his mechanics more consistent could be a dominant pitcher in time, Cease and Dunning also nice looking arms. But nothing set in stone, NOTHING. WAY too many questions.

Edited December 15, 2017 by kwolf68

[Dick Allen]

This rumor makes absolutely no sense. I'd love Manny, but only when the Sox are ready to compete. They have a plan and offering a package of some of our top prospects (which is exactly what the Orioles will want) for a single hitter makes no sense. The Sox literally have a bunch of unknowns heading for the rotation, some awesome young arms, but still unknowns. You get Manny when you are pretty confident that you're ready to compete. This deal simply makes NO SENSE, which leads me to believe would Hahn be talking to the Orioles as a proxie for another team (Yankees) who he'd flip Manny over to? Trade off good prospects to Os for Manny, get great ones from a team who should be able to pay for Manny (Yankees) and proceed with the current model? The Sox talent is down in the farm, SOME of those kids are gonna make it, SOME will not. If we deplete those numbers the chances of the Sox being a very poor team (even with Manny) goes up.

 

Sox rotation is going to be what? Gio and Lopez right now headline it, but they are still developing especially concerning the number of innings forced to pitch. Then you have what...Shields as your next man up? Fulmer and Covey are in the mix. Who knows there. Eventually Rodon and Kopech may well form the top end of the rotation, but Rodon is out half the year and Kopech may not be quite ready. I think Alec Hansen, if the Sox can get his mechanics more consistent could be a dominant pitcher in time, Cease and Dunning also nice looking arms. But nothing set in stone, NOTHING. WAY too many questions.

I would love to have him on the White Sox. But it's best for the team if that starts in 2019.

[Balta1701]

Are there examples where this has worked in the past with top of the line guys? And if this will net you a guy like Machado, shouldn't the "right price" be pretty steep?

 

I also think if the White Sox have to make this move, it is admitting they won't be the top bidders. KW was upset he wasn't given the opportunity to speak to Ohtani and convince him to take the White Sox $300k. Organizations that don't think money talks are kidding themselves. Playing for a 76-86 White Sox team in 2018 isn't going to convince him to sign with the team if the Sox offer isn't the highest or pretty damn close.

If the White Sox are scared that they won't be the top bidder for these guys despite having like $30 million in payroll commitments for 2019 then hoarding every talented player they can get their hands on for 6 years becomes even more important. They ought to have the money to be the top bidder on 2 great players if they want to be. If they aren't willing to be, then the only way to compete is to overwhelm the league with young talent.

[yesterday333]

This rumor makes absolutely no sense. I'd love Manny, but only when the Sox are ready to compete. They have a plan and offering a package of some of our top prospects (which is exactly what the Orioles will want) for a single hitter makes no sense. The Sox literally have a bunch of unknowns heading for the rotation, some awesome young arms, but still unknowns. You get Manny when you are pretty confident that you're ready to compete. This deal simply makes NO SENSE, which leads me to believe would Hahn be talking to the Orioles as a proxie for another team (Yankees) who he'd flip Manny over to? Trade off good prospects to Os for Manny, get great ones from a team who should be able to pay for Manny (Yankees) and proceed with the current model? The Sox talent is down in the farm, SOME of those kids are gonna make it, SOME will not. If we deplete those numbers the chances of the Sox being a very poor team (even with Manny) goes up.

 

Sox rotation is going to be what? Gio and Lopez right now headline it, but they are still developing especially concerning the number of innings forced to pitch. Then you have what...Shields as your next man up? Fulmer and Covey are in the mix. Who knows there. Eventually Rodon and Kopech may well form the top end of the rotation, but Rodon is out half the year and Kopech may not be quite ready. I think Alec Hansen, if the Sox can get his mechanics more consistent could be a dominant pitcher in time, Cease and Dunning also nice looking arms. But nothing set in stone, NOTHING. WAY too many questions.

But we are not offering top prospects... and we have the best offer... we wont get in a bidding war for him.

[Dick Allen]

But we are not offering top prospects... and we have the best offer... we wont get in a bidding war for him.

No one really knows the offers, but if Machado is traded, the Orioles are going to get some pretty good prospects.

 

Who knows, maybe Abreu and Avi are in the mix. Mark Gonzalez called the package impressive, so I doubt that is several A ball guys hoping to find their way.

Edited December 15, 2017 by Dick Allen

[Chicago White Sox]

Assuming Sox could offer something close to market value, or at least within 10% of it, what percentage do we think having Machado here for a year increases his likelihood of accepting our deal over others?

 

I can't imagine it's more than 15% increase in the likelihood.

 

So what would I pay for that 15% increase? It's real low. It's like Bernardo Flores low.

 

Which is completely unfair to Baltimore because I'm not paying them at all for his 2018 production, which means essentially nothing.

This is a great post. While I think our odds of signing improve by quite a bit more and would be willing to pay more accordingly, you’ve outlined the general idea perfectly. Everyone is entitled to debate how impactful the strategy would be, but it bothers me when people call it nonsensical. It’s only stupid if the team pays a price well above the fair value of the benefit.

[caulfield12]

Hahn loves to win the offseason, lol...maybe it’s just all PR spin, knowing there’s nothing to lose by throwing our hat in the ring.

 

We don’t have any obvious in’s with Machado like we did with F.Garcia (Ozzie) or even Luis Robert, unless we’re going with this every Latino player would love to suit up for Renteria storyline.

Edited December 15, 2017 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

This is a great post. While I think our odds of signing improve by quite a bit more and would be willing to pay more accordingly, you’ve outlined the general idea perfectly. Everyone is entitled to debate how impactful the strategy would be, but it bothers me when people call it nonsensical. It’s only stupid if the team pays a price well above the fair value of the benefit.

If the package for him is Bernardo Flores (Who?) I'm ok with it. Anything beyond that is nonsensical. Is that fair?