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2018 Sox ZiPS projections

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I count 17 WAR in that projection am I right?

 

Can someone who has seen how these turn out give that in terms of a "Projected record"? If this team does that...they're likely what, a 55 win team?

 

So that's our starting point and anything beyond that is more improvement than expected?

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 05:06 PM)
I count 17 WAR in that projection am I right?

 

Can someone who has seen how these turn out give that in terms of a "Projected record"? If this team does that...they're likely what, a 55 win team?

 

So that's our starting point and anything beyond that is more improvement than expected?

 

Like a 65 win team. Can you find 15 WAR somewhere that ZIPS doesn't see? To get the Sox to 80 and ready to compete in 2019? Probably the biggest delta I see is between the IF projections and my own expectations. ZIPS sees 6.9 WAR between Yolmer, Jose, Yoan and Timmy. I could see that group putting up 10-12. It's going to take some improvement that ZIPS doesn't see from the young guys but hey that's why they play the games.

Edited by chitownsportsfan

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QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 05:15 PM)
Like a 65 win team. Can you find 15 WAR somewhere that ZIPS doesn't see? To get the Sox to 80 and ready to compete in 2019? Probably the biggest delta I see is between the IF projections and my own expectations. ZIPS sees 6.9 WAR between Yolmer, Jose, Yoan and Timmy. I could see that group putting up 10-12. It's going to take some improvement that ZIPS doesn't see from the young guys but hey that's why they play the games.

Can I find 15 WAR by 2019 or 2018? 2018 I agree with your skepticism, I just want a baseline to look at because this does feel like something > a 65 win team right now, based on what we saw last August. When we swap in 3s for Kopech and Jiminez and 5 for Machado, plus maybe get more from a developed DH spot? 2019 I can totally see that level of a boost.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 05:30 PM)
Can I find 15 WAR by 2019 or 2018? 2018 I agree with your skepticism, I just want a baseline to look at because this does feel like something > a 65 win team right now, based on what we saw last August. When we swap in 3s for Kopech and Jiminez and 5 for Machado, plus maybe get more from a developed DH spot? 2019 I can totally see that level of a boost.

 

For various reasons I think this is a 75 win team not a 65 win team. I'm skeptical that Jose Abreu isn't going to crack 3 WAR and I'm also skeptical that Avi is going to turn back into a 1 WAR pumpkin. I think Moncada is going to put up 3-5 WAR as well and that Yolmer is closer to a 3 WAR true talent than 1 WAR.

 

The pitching side of things, with probably a veteran flyer being added in spring and maybe Kopech and Hansen coming up in late summer and Rodon's status up in the air -- I have no idea. The bullpen blowing high leverage situations isn't going to reflect too much on WAR but it will have a bad effect on winning. And the pen IS going to be awful. No doubt about that, at least as we sit here today in late December.

 

I'm ready to start spring training. The last two weeks of Dec and the month of January are always the worst imo. Just let us get to February 1st and then I can stop staring out the window, or maybe I still am but I can see the snow melting and the sun getting higher in the sky.

Edited by chitownsportsfan

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I’m less certain of how our pitching staff will do next year and clearly there are some major holes on that end, but the projected positional WAR is way too light IMO. I feel pretty good about Abreu & Moncada being around 3.5 WAR players. I think Sanchez, Anderson, Leury, & Delmonico will combine for 8 WAR or so in some fashion. If Avi is around, I see an easy 2 WAR from him. That would be about 17 WAR excluding our catcher spot & DH and not including any potential benefit from Jimenez coming up mid-season. ZIPS seems way too conservative on almost all of these guys.

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QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 05:53 PM)
I’m less certain of how our pitching staff will do next year and clearly there are some major holes on that end, but the projected positional WAR is way too light IMO. I feel pretty good about Abreu & Moncada being around 3.5 WAR players. I think Sanchez, Anderson, Leury, & Delmonico will combine for 8 WAR or so in some fashion. If Avi is around, I see an easy 2 WAR from him. That would be about 17 WAR excluding our catcher spot & DH and not including any potential benefit from Jimenez coming up mid-season. ZIPS seems way too conservative on almost all of these guys.

My biggest issue with your whole comment is that it lists 10 guys who you project to be better and doesn't project anyone to implode. That was the game I was playing with these projections to convince myself in 2015 that this team would be better than they were on paper, and I realized what I was missing was "you can't project all your guys to be better than the computers think they will be". Someone's going to get hurt, someone's going to implode and wind up back in the minors. Moncada might have his "2017 Anderson" year. Maybe Leury or Sanchez pull off a 2017 Saladino. Abreu could get hurt. Whatever. If you predict "these 10 guys will all be better than their projections", somewhere a couple guys will seriously disappoint.

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Very quick math on Jose shows ~6 WAR combined the past 2 seasons. Divided in half, that puts him at 3 WAR per year. Drop some WAR due to his spot on the aging curve, and he's at 2.6.

 

I feel he's superior than that, but the projection makes sense. In the most common scenario using the data we have, these projections shoot out the most likely scenario for all of these players. It's a good thing to see Moncada at 2.4 and Eloy at 1.5 (WAR/600 is actually 2 for Eloy).

 

Given the youth and talent, I think the Sox will outproduce these projections, but the baseline shows that this is not that good of a team, which is just fine.

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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 02:22 PM)
The player comparison for Reynaldo Lopez is perfect.

 

The comp for Yolmer Sanchez is much better. It's too bad that Yolmer is already too old to be the youngest heavyweight champ

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I was going to post about how we should prepare ourselves for a big regression this year, a la the Phillies who were “surprisingly” competitive in their first year and killed by injuries in their second.

 

That said, I would bet anything we end up in the over on that position player war projection, and that yolmer will be over.

 

And quite frankly Castillo having a severe regression like that will recreate fears that our pro scouting is garbage.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 04:31 PM)
And quite frankly Castillo having a severe regression like that will recreate fears that our pro scouting is garbage.

 

I just don't understand the -3 defense projection for him. His worst season was 2015, and he spent time with 3 teams that year, so I can understand a lack of familiarity contributing to that, and he was still at 4.3.

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These projections aren’t great but they’re still better than the Steamer projections, who currently have us as the worst team in baseball by 8 games.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 03:57 PM)
My biggest issue with your whole comment is that it lists 10 guys who you project to be better and doesn't project anyone to implode. That was the game I was playing with these projections to convince myself in 2015 that this team would be better than they were on paper, and I realized what I was missing was "you can't project all your guys to be better than the computers think they will be". Someone's going to get hurt, someone's going to implode and wind up back in the minors. Moncada might have his "2017 Anderson" year. Maybe Leury or Sanchez pull off a 2017 Saladino. Abreu could get hurt. Whatever. If you predict "these 10 guys will all be better than their projections", somewhere a couple guys will seriously disappoint.

Just to lay the facts out there:

 

Player/2016 Actuals/2017 FCST

Abreu - 4.2 - 3.5

Moncada - 0.9 (1/3) - 3.5

Avi - 4.2 - 2.0

Sanchez - 2.1 - 2.0

Anderson - 0.2 - 2.0

Leury - 1.1 (1/2) - 2.0

Delmoncio - 1.0 (1/4) - 2.0

 

So I’m expecting minor regression from Jose & serious regression for Avi. I’m expecting some improvement from Moncada from his FY extrapolated numbers because I believe in his insane tools and saw improvement down the stretch. I’m expecting more of the same from Leury & Sanchez if healthy (which is a fair criticism of my projections). I expect Anderson to look like the player he was in the 2nd half of the season and the not the one dealing with a horrific personal issue, which ZIPS can’t account for. And I have always been a huge believer in Nicky’s offensive abilities and saw enough from him last year to believe he can be a passable left fielder.

 

I really don’t see how my projections are that aggressive other than the injury risk which I acknowledged above. So shave off a couple points and bring the overall projection down to 14 WAR (~18% decrease). That still tells me the ZIPS estimates are way too conservative, which makes sense given that some of these players have personal issues impacted their recent numbers (Timmy/Jose), other guys seemingly came out of nowhere (Sanchez, Luery, Nicky), & another guy has otherworldly tools that may not be easily quantifiable.

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QUOTE (WBWSF @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 07:11 PM)
Looks like another season "Mired in Mediocrity".

As long as you don't mind the 102-60 in 2020.

 

Because my goal is to beat that, so I expect some people to be disappointed if that's all we do.

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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 03:08 PM)
These projections aren’t great but they’re still better than the Steamer projections, who currently have us as the worst team in baseball by 8 games.

Currently the bullpen is a disaster so that's understandable and bullpen pieces are going like hotcakes. If Hahn is planning on playing the waiting game and picking up BP pieces later won't be much left.

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Steamer and Zips have both made me more optimistic about Delmonico.

I already know that his defense stinks, but if he can modestly outperform Steamer's usual down-in-the-dumps projections, the team would probably be able to hide his glove in order to keep his bat in the lineup.

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QUOTE (Butter Parque @ Dec 30, 2017 -> 10:50 AM)
Steamer and Zips have both made me more optimistic about Delmonico.

I already know that his defense stinks, but if he can modestly outperform Steamer's usual down-in-the-dumps projections, the team would probably be able to hide his glove in order to keep his bat in the lineup.

While I think there is no hope for him at 3B, I think he has the chance to be ok in LF. The position was basically brand new to him last year and he’s a decent athlete. Got to give him some time though.

Edited by Chicago White Sox

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