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wrathofhahn

Yu Darvish to Cubs

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QUOTE (35thstreetswarm @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 06:15 PM)
A lot of truth in that - look, the Cubs won one WS, and I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't be overjoyed if the Sox did the same with the group of prospects coming up.

 

But I don't know that the Cubs have done quite enough to spare them the level of criticism I reserve for other teams -- like, say the Royals, or, say, the White Sox -- that have accomplished pretty much the same thing. If Eloy Jimenez wins World Series MVP, I fully expect to party deliriously through November and be back to whining about White Sox moves the following July. If the Cubs go on to build the multi-title dynasty some predicted back in 2015, then maybe I'll give them the "Patriots treatment" or "Blackhawks treatment" (i.e., the benefit of every reasonable doubt when it comes to personnel moves). But I don't think they're there yet.

Ask yourself this. Say the Cubs won their first title and then said "we're going to keep developing these guys". Would they seriously be better off than they were last year? Un-do that deal, give them back Jiminez at AA. Now their pitching staff going into 2018 is Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Chatwood, Montgomery. Does that rotation scare you? Even with all the talent in their big leagues squad, aren't you seriously thinking that both the Brewers and the Cardinals can compete with them? Yes, in 2019 Jiminez would be a monster for them, alongside a 35 year old Lester and with Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Russell, all in their 2nd years of arbitration.

 

That could still be a decent team, but as the arb costs go up for these guys the money available to add pitching is going down. The lesson here is that even when you do things right, the costs to stay on top for more than a season or two are huge. The Royals won their title and then haven't been back to the playoffs. The Cubs won their title and then just to make the playoffs last year, after a sub.500 first half, they had to cash in their last chips. The Astros started last year with a $132 million payroll, they're up to $149 to start the year this year, and former Cy Young and their 2nd best pitcher Dallas Keuchel hits free agency next year.

 

The moral of the story here is - when you've got a team that can win a title, win a title. The way baseball is playing right now, staying on top for 3-4 years requires extremely high costs in both talent and money. Be ready to pay the price to get on top and then worry about the other years later. They won't be cheap, but you've got two choices; pay that price or rebuild again. And I don't think anyone would, in the Cubs' position, try to rebuild right now, even though guys are getting expensive.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 05:45 PM)
Ask yourself this. Say the Cubs won their first title and then said "we're going to keep developing these guys". Would they seriously be better off than they were last year? Un-do that deal, give them back Jiminez at AA. Now their pitching staff going into 2018 is Darvish, Lester, Hendricks, Chatwood, Montgomery. Does that rotation scare you? Even with all the talent in their big leagues squad, aren't you seriously thinking that both the Brewers and the Cardinals can compete with them? Yes, in 2019 Jiminez would be a monster for them, alongside a 35 year old Lester and with Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Russell, all in their 2nd years of arbitration.

 

That could still be a decent team, but as the arb costs go up for these guys the money available to add pitching is going down. The lesson here is that even when you do things right, the costs to stay on top for more than a season or two are huge. The Royals won their title and then haven't been back to the playoffs. The Cubs won their title and then just to make the playoffs last year, after a sub.500 first half, they had to cash in their last chips. The Astros started last year with a $132 million payroll, they're up to $149 to start the year this year, and former Cy Young and their 2nd best pitcher Dallas Keuchel hits free agency next year.

 

The moral of the story here is - when you've got a team that can win a title, win a title. The way baseball is playing right now, staying on top for 3-4 years requires extremely high costs in both talent and money. Be ready to pay the price to get on top and then worry about the other years later. They won't be cheap, but you've got two choices; pay that price or rebuild again. And I don't think anyone would, in the Cubs' position, try to rebuild right now, even though guys are getting expensive.

 

I agree with all of that. As I said, I think signing Darvish was probably necessary to keep their window open - I just don't think it really makes them any better than they were last year when they came up short. I view this as a tread-water move rather than the breakthrough some seem to think it is.

 

(The rest of my rant was really directed more generally at the tendency to afford this Cubs team a degree of deference I'm not sure they have earned just yet.)

 

Hopefully we have such problems to deal with in a few years!

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It’s not even Jiminez, right now.

 

It’s being stuck with Zobrist/Heyward, a lack of elite arms after Edwards in the pen and the defensive hodgepodge that is Happ/Schwarber.

 

Their most desirable trade piece, Baez, is the one with the most positional versatility and best defender, so they can simply not afford to lose him. They really were fortunate to get Wade Davis for Soler last year, but a lot of other breaks have gone their way (Rizzo, Bryant draft, Kendricks, developing one of the best catchers in baseball internally, Lester connection to Epstein).

 

They also don’t have a true CFer or leadoff hitter.

 

And they lost Gleyber Torres for a closer who almost ended up costing them the title, bringing a domestic abuser into their midst before it really cost them with female Cubs’ fans like it MIGHT in a post #metoo world.

 

All those things said, it’s hard to imagine doing any better than 3 consecutive NL Champ series appearances and still having at least 4 or even 5 good shots to get back there again. And while the Brewers and Cards improved, the Pirates and Reds are two more small market teams who are being forced by circumstances to rebuild.

 

Last but not least, undo history and put the Astros back in the NL Central and you might not have a Cubs’ World Series title.

 

But we can do that same exercise with the 2004-2005 Chicago White Sox just as easily, if not moreso.

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Great points above. I feel like our window will be open much longer than the cubs’. The waves of arms will just keep coming.

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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 06:23 PM)
Great points above. I feel like our window will be open much longer than the cubs’. The waves of arms will just keep coming.

 

I’m skeptical that we will be able to replicate the cubs success until we see these top prospects producing. The talent is there, but they did not miss too many times. I’m absolutely willing to be patient, but the front office better be aggressive when the time comes.

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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 07:23 PM)
Great points above. I feel like our window will be open much longer than the cubs’. The waves of arms will just keep coming.

See, I disagree. I think that by 2020, we're going to be feeling pressure to do exactly the kind of move the Cubs did with Torres....and it will be the right move. We'll be sitting there with a 95 win team saying "What do we need to win the world series" and the answer will be "We're going to have to trade Cease to bring back this one huge piece" or something like that. And it's going to be the right move too, but it's going to cost us the ability to stay in things when 2022 or 2023 come around. We'll have about a 3-4 year window, with 2020 being the sweet spot of Moncada and Jiminez still cheap but enough talent to make trades.

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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 06:23 PM)
Great points above. I feel like our window will be open much longer than the cubs'. The waves of arms will just keep coming.

 

Not a chance. We aren't going to spend anything like the Cubs have/will, and we don't have the depth of position players to overcome that.

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And pitchers just don’t have the longevity anymore.

 

One more major Giolito injury and Lopez/Fulmer going to the bullpen and we’re suddenly back to Kopech/Hansen/Cease/Dunning and a bunch of unknowns, especially with Rodon’s status so up in the air. That would require filling at least one major rotation hole in free agency, instead of filling two holes in the starting lineup with the MLB equivalent of LBJ and Paul George.

 

If you could pencil in All Star next to Tim Anderson and Carlos Rodon’s names in 2019, it would be much easier to feel 100% confident.

Edited by caulfield12

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 04:51 AM)
It hasn't been confirmed they offered 6 years but I assume the annual salary is the same with maybe a year or two less.

 

 

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 02:59 PM)
Jon Heyman‏Verified account @JonHeyman 16m16 minutes ago icymi, sources say cubs were willing to do the same six-year deal for arrieta that darvish took.

 

;)

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 04:05 PM)
It’s not even Jiminez, right now.

 

It’s being stuck with Zobrist/Heyward, a lack of elite arms after Edwards in the pen and the defensive hodgepodge that is Happ/Schwarber.

 

Their most desirable trade piece, Baez, is the one with the most positional versatility and best defender, so they can simply not afford to lose him. They really were fortunate to get Wade Davis for Soler last year, but a lot of other breaks have gone their way (Rizzo, Bryant draft, Kendricks, developing one of the best catchers in baseball internally, Lester connection to Epstein).

 

They also don’t have a true CFer or leadoff hitter.

 

And they lost Gleyber Torres for a closer who almost ended up costing them the title, bringing a domestic abuser into their midst before it really cost them with female Cubs’ fans like it MIGHT in a post #metoo world.

 

All those things said, it’s hard to imagine doing any better than 3 consecutive NL Champ series appearances and still having at least 4 or even 5 good shots to get back there again. And while the Brewers and Cards improved, the Pirates and Reds are two more small market teams who are being forced by circumstances to rebuild.

 

Last but not least, undo history and put the Astros back in the NL Central and you might not have a Cubs’ World Series title.

 

But we can do that same exercise with the 2004-2005 Chicago White Sox just as easily, if not moreso.

 

Some remotely competent Umpiring as well (or not as bluntly dirty) and they don't have a WS title either. They're not as good as they think they are, and I doubt they'll make the playoffs this year. Terrible pick-up.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 09:24 PM)
And pitchers just don’t have the longevity anymore.

 

One more major Giolito injury and Lopez/Fulmer going to the bullpen and we’re suddenly back to Kopech/Hansen/Cease/Dunning and a bunch of unknowns, especially with Rodon’s status so up in the air. That would require filling at least one major rotation hole in free agency, instead of filling two holes in the starting lineup with the MLB equivalent of LBJ and Paul George.

 

If you could pencil in All Star next to Tim Anderson and Carlos Rodon’s names in 2019, it would be much easier to feel 100% confident.

 

You're assuming we forget how to develop high draft pick starting pitchers. That's always been this team's bread and butter and I don't see it changing as long as key personnel remain in place.

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 01:12 AM)
;)

 

Haha at the time I responded, the MLBTR article quotes said it wasn't for sure the same contract.

Edited by soxfan2014

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QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 03:56 AM)
You're assuming we forget how to develop high draft pick starting pitchers. That's always been this team's bread and butter and I don't see it changing as long as key personnel remain in place.

 

Hopefully those high draft pick starting pitchers can stay on the field like Rodon. Health is always a factor.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 12, 2018 -> 08:24 PM)
And pitchers just don’t have the longevity anymore.

 

One more major Giolito injury and Lopez/Fulmer going to the bullpen and we’re suddenly back to Kopech/Hansen/Cease/Dunning and a bunch of unknowns, especially with Rodon’s status so up in the air. That would require filling at least one major rotation hole in free agency, instead of filling two holes in the starting lineup with the MLB equivalent of LBJ and Paul George.

 

If you could pencil in All Star next to Tim Anderson and Carlos Rodon’s names in 2019, it would be much easier to feel 100% confident.

 

Being realistic, I can see us being in the market for a significant position player, starting pitcher and bullpen help next offseason. Our payroll will be low enough to allow for several marquee signings to be made.

 

Ideally we can fill the rotation from within, I just doubt that happens without us going after a top free agent starter like Keuchel for example.

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Britton, A.Miller, Familia, Cody Allen, Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Robertson, Brach, Herrera...a lot of closers on the market next year.

 

Nathan Eovaldi would be another name to watch for conversion to the pen.

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QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 03:56 AM)
You're assuming we forget how to develop high draft pick starting pitchers. That's always been this team's bread and butter and I don't see it changing as long as key personnel remain in place.

 

Not sure Rodon and Fulmer are a feather in our cap at the moment.

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QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 09:09 AM)
Not sure Rodon and Fulmer are a feather in our cap at the moment.

 

Yeah our only one that we have to fallback on currently is Sale. Not sure that makes it our "bread and butter" at the moment.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 09:14 AM)
Yeah our only one that we have to fallback on currently is Sale. Not sure that makes it our "bread and butter" at the moment.

 

Quintana seemed to be developed rather nicely

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QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 10:43 AM)
Quintana seemed to be developed rather nicely

Even given that, that was in 2012. The last time the White Sox successfully developed a starting pitcher was 2012.

 

In 2016, people were still talking about how the White Sox had a great record of developing pitching and we could continue to be competitive by developing that pitching and trading it for hitting. They hadn't developed a starter for 5 years at that point, and no Rodon didn't count because he was still struggling and now we've hit an injury wall.

 

Hopefully this changes with the influx of guys we just brought in and maybe Hansen is the draftee who turns the tide, but "developing pitching" hasn't been a regular strength of this franchise in nearly a decade.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 09:49 AM)
Even given that, that was in 2012. The last time the White Sox successfully developed a starting pitcher was 2012.

 

In 2016, people were still talking about how the White Sox had a great record of developing pitching and we could continue to be competitive by developing that pitching and trading it for hitting. They hadn't developed a starter for 5 years at that point, and no Rodon didn't count because he was still struggling and now we've hit an injury wall.

 

Hopefully this changes with the influx of guys we just brought in and maybe Hansen is the draftee who turns the tide, but "developing pitching" hasn't been a regular strength of this franchise in nearly a decade.

 

If this is true, the rebuild is a complete waste of time

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 10:49 AM)
Even given that, that was in 2012. The last time the White Sox successfully developed a starting pitcher was 2012.

 

In 2016, people were still talking about how the White Sox had a great record of developing pitching and we could continue to be competitive by developing that pitching and trading it for hitting. They hadn't developed a starter for 5 years at that point, and no Rodon didn't count because he was still struggling and now we've hit an injury wall.

 

Hopefully this changes with the influx of guys we just brought in and maybe Hansen is the draftee who turns the tide, but "developing pitching" hasn't been a regular strength of this franchise in nearly a decade.

 

 

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 10:54 AM)
If this is true, the rebuild is a complete waste of time

The fact that the White Sox couldn't develop any pitching was one of the great many things that sabotaged the 2015 and 2016 rosters. It absolutely needs to change right now. At least now they have some horses, but until a few guys turn their talent into big league success, we should be skeptical.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 10:39 AM)
The fact that the White Sox couldn't develop any pitching was one of the great many things that sabotaged the 2015 and 2016 rosters. It absolutely needs to change right now. At least now they have some horses, but until a few guys turn their talent into big league success, we should be skeptical.

 

If this part of a larger pattern, and we got through this process to have the pitching fail, this franchise is done for in Chicago. We pushed our chips in on developing pitching over position players by volume. It was literally the worst possible move if they can't develop pitching anymore.

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Contract details.

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

now

Yu Darvish $126 million contract: $25 million in 2018; $20M in 2019; $22 M in 2020; $22 M in 2021; $19 million in 2022 and $18 million in 2023 He also has full no trade clause in first four years of deal. #Cubs

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QUOTE (Sleepy Harold @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 11:42 AM)
Contract details.

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

now

Yu Darvish $126 million contract: $25 million in 2018; $20M in 2019; $22 M in 2020; $22 M in 2021; $19 million in 2022 and $18 million in 2023 He also has full no trade clause in first four years of deal. #Cubs

 

Worth mentioning since people forget that his contract hits the luxury tax number on an annual basis so his contract hits at $21 million a year.

Edited by soxfan2014

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