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wrathofhahn

Yu Darvish to Cubs

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Unless you’re talking about Kahnle and Swarzak as reclamation projects...? Minaya? Miguel Gonzalez?

 

Dunks and Rodon got hurt. What else can we go to, as illustrations, beyond Sale and Q? All the rookies and castoffs competing until mid-September, 2012?

 

Fulmer, until the last 4-6 weeks of this past season, was a huge disappointment. Adams and Tyler Danish. Dylan Covey spun his wheels. Chris Beck was supposedly Top 5-10 talent. We all know the James Shields/Tatis, Jr., story, that’s more on Hahn than Cooper, though.

 

Fwiw, Hansen might be the best development example (so far), with Dunning not far behind. Michael Kopech definitely took a huge (expected) step forward, too. The fact of the matter is the pitching talent level from 2012-16 was usually the excuse, so that’s going to get old fast if they don’t start producing some positive MLB results by the end of 2018.

 

For now, many are far from certain how real/repeatable those Giolito and Fulmer performances actually were. Lopez was expectedly inconsistent/erratic. A big bundle of ?’s.

Edited by caulfield12

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QUOTE (Sleepy Harold @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 11:42 AM)
Contract details.

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

now

Yu Darvish $126 million contract: $25 million in 2018; $20M in 2019; $22 M in 2020; $22 M in 2021; $19 million in 2022 and $18 million in 2023 He also has full no trade clause in first four years of deal. #Cubs

 

so they set up his incentive to opt out after two years. This isn't a bad deal for the Cubs as long as Darvish's arm doesn't fall off at the end of year two.

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I suppose we should add Reed, Santiago and Devenski to the White Sox pitching success stories list...the record is a lot more inspiring on the pitching side, even if it wasn’t always in Chicago.

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QUOTE (Sleepy Harold @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 11:42 AM)
Contract details.

 

Bob Nightengale @BNightengale

now

Yu Darvish $126 million contract: $25 million in 2018; $20M in 2019; $22 M in 2020; $22 M in 2021; $19 million in 2022 and $18 million in 2023 He also has full no trade clause in first four years of deal. #Cubs

 

So 2 yrs/$45M is what Cubs fans and Darvish will be hoping for.

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:03 PM)
So 2 yrs/$45M is what Cubs fans and Darvish will be hoping for.

 

Darvish will be hoping for the incentives as well haha but would a 32 year old Darvish be able to beat 4 years, $81 mill?

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:12 PM)
Darvish will be hoping for the incentives as well haha but would a 32 year old Darvish be able to beat 4 years, $81 mill?

 

Well, it's HIS opt-out clause. If he has 2 great years for the Cubs, then he will be wanting to opt out, and thus he thinks he could beat 4 years/$81M. If he does bad, he won't opt out, and he gets that money anyway. So really, 4 yrs/$81M is already on the table for him, he just has to feel around if any teams can beat that offer.

Edited by ChiliIrishHammock24

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:15 PM)
Well, it's HIS opt-out clause. If he has 2 great years for the Cubs, then he will be wanting to opt out, and thus he thinks he could beat 3 years/$81M. If he does bad, he won't opt out, and he gets that money anyway. So really, 4 yrs/$81M is already on the table for him, he just has to feel around if any teams can beat that offer.

 

Which is basically what I implied and understand lol I get that it's his opt-out and didn't make it seem otherwise haha

Edited by soxfan2014

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QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:03 PM)
So 2 yrs/$45M is what Cubs fans and Darvish will be hoping for.

Yep. The last 4 years are like the years on Heyward's contract. Darvish will only take them if he plays poorly and the Cubs will be stuck with them if he plays poorly.

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QUOTE (Donaldo @ Feb 14, 2018 -> 08:45 PM)
The Cubs' rotation now has Q and Yu.

 

And a whole bunch of L's

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:28 PM)
Yep. The last 4 years are like the years on Heyward's contract. Darvish will only take them if he plays poorly and the Cubs will be stuck with them if he plays poorly.

 

Except Heyward was to be in his 20s getting his second big contract, Darvish will be 33. And a pitcher.

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QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 02:28 PM)
Yep. The last 4 years are like the years on Heyward's contract. Darvish will only take them if he plays poorly and the Cubs will be stuck with them if he plays poorly.

 

Heyward has two potential opt-outs. The first is after the 18 season and if he reaches 550 PAs in 2019, he can opt-out. Assuming no injury, he should reach the 550 but at that point it depends how well he did with the bat.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml

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QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 14, 2018 -> 09:39 PM)
Except Heyward was to be in his 20s getting his second big contract, Darvish will be 33. And a pitcher.

Still a disadvantage for the club no matter which way you spin it.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 01:28 PM)
Heyward has two potential opt-outs. The first is after the 18 season and if he reaches 550 PAs in 2019, he can opt-out. Assuming no injury, he should reach the 550 but at that point it depends how well he did with the bat.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml

The opt outs are still for the player only. As long as he continues the poor play he will not opt out and the Cubs are stuck with a bad contract.

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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 13, 2018 -> 03:17 PM)
Which is basically what I implied and understand lol I get that it's his opt-out and didn't make it seem otherwise haha

 

That's the crux, though. It's all about which party is the one that decides whether or not the Cubs keep paying him. There's no situation where it wouldn't be better for the Cubs if he simply didn't have the opt-out. Even if, two years from now, Darvish is worth his contract and they decide to trade him because they don't want to risk him falling off a cliff, they're still better off doing that than if he opted out. If he ends up having a catastrophic injury in year three, everyone will say "Oh well that worked out for them," but the RISK of that injury at the time of the decision was baked into his value. He's either worth more or less than 4/81 with projections included.

 

If he can demand more, then the Cubs are better off keeping him at that price. If he can't demand more, the Cubs still have to keep him at that price.

Edited by Eminor3rd

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QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 03:04 PM)
That's the crux, though. It's all about which party is the one that decides whether or not the Cubs keep paying him. There's no situation where it wouldn't be better for the Cubs if he simply didn't have the opt-out. Even if, two years from now, Darvish is worth his contract and they decide to trade him because they don't want to risk him falling off a cliff, they're still better off doing that than if he opted out. If he ends up having a catastrophic injury in year three, everyone will say "Oh well that worked out for them," but the RISK of that injury at the time of the decision was baked into his value. He's either worth more or less than 4/81 with projections included.

 

If he can demand more, then the Cubs are better off keeping him at that price. If he can't demand more, the Cubs still have to keep him at that price.

 

My point is, at 33, he'd have to pitch pretty damn good the next 2 seasons to land better than 4/81.

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As one of the people who was really beating the drum for Jason Heyward getting paid like a top player, even I can't deny that he has been an epic failure for the Cubs. I think that it is right up there with Pujols for being the worst contract in the sport.

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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Feb 15, 2018 -> 04:49 PM)
As one of the people who was really beating the drum for Jason Heyward getting paid like a top player, even I can't deny that he has been an epic failure for the Cubs. I think that it is right up there with Pujols for being the worst contract in the sport.

 

Yep, Heyward is going to cost them one of their good young players when it comes to having to pay them.

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