Moustakas linked to Sox again

[Eminor3rd]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

Nunez across two teams had a fWAR of 2.2, but also was not a part of qualified batters in the list above.

 

Only 5 teams in the MLB last year accumulated 2 WAR at 3B.

 

Where is this from, you just said 19 teams had a 2 WAR 3b? Even if they played off 3b for a portion, someone else could not be such a net negative that it drags all those teams down.

 

You can't use the Batting Title Qualified as a filter in this case -- that's always a higher number than people realize. And since WAR is a counting stat, there isn't even any sampling issue by dropping it. Might as well set the PA filter to 0.

 

Which, in case anyone was wondering, shows 23 third basemen at over 2 WAR last year

[Dick Allen]

You can't use the Batting Title Qualified as a filter in this case -- that's always a higher number than people realize. And since WAR is a counting stat, there isn't even any sampling issue by dropping it. Might as well set the PA filter to 0.

 

Which, in case anyone was wondering, shows 23 third basemen at over 2 WAR last year

Does WAR accumulate the same if someone was playing 2B more than half the time? in other words, are the standards for each position identical?

 

If Yolmer Sanchez had played 3B exclusively and put up the same numbers, would his WAR have been different in any way?

[Chicago White Sox]

Does WAR accumulate the same if someone was playing 2B more than half the time? in other words, are the standards for each position identical?

 

If Yolmer Sanchez had played 3B exclusively and put up the same numbers, would his WAR have been different in any way?

The positional adjustment is the same between 3B & 2B, so I don't think it would.

[Eminor3rd]

Does WAR accumulate the same if someone was playing 2B more than half the time? in other words, are the standards for each position identical?

 

If Yolmer Sanchez had played 3B exclusively and put up the same numbers, would his WAR have been different in any way?

 

I believe it is pro-rated for the amount that a guy plays at each position. As CWS said, it wouldn't matter for Yolmer since those positions are the same, but I think it DOES matter for guys that play 3B and SS a significant amount, for example.

[Lillian]

We've pretty much exhausted this debate on whether, or not, to sign Moustakas. Here is my personal opinion and conclusion:

 

I advocate signing Moustakas to a 4 or 5 year contract, if he can be acquired for $12 Million per year, or less. Here is my argument:

 

1) 5 years covers his age 29 through 33 seasons, still prime years.

2) 3RD base is the one hole, which needs filling, now and into the foreseeable future. I love Yolmer, but he is not a middle of the order hitter

3) He provides a much needed solid LH, middle of the order, power bat

4) His 38 homers, in 2017, are a KC record and the 24 HR's, in just 74 games, on the road, are very impressive. He should be a force at Guaranteed Rate Field.

5) While he doesn't walk at an ideal rate, his strike outs are very respectable, for a true power hitter. His 2017 94 Strike outs, with 38 HR's and a .531 Slugging % was among the best in baseball. We would all like a better OBP, but if he possessed one, he would be a $20 million per year player.

6) His 2015 stats were very consistently solid, with the exception of his July .188 AVG., immediately following the time that his mother lost her struggle with cancer. He took two family leaves during that time. That .188 was more than 100 points lower than the rest of his season. If you take out that month, of understandable emotional stress, he hit .302.

7) That contract would be very reasonable, relative to today's market, and would not preclude another major commitment

8) He would not block any top prospect, currently in the organization.

9) He has valuable Post Season experience

10) Good club house guy

11) Before his knee injury, his defense was rated better than average, and he is now another year further removed from knee surgery and should be an adequate defender.

 

2019 Lineup, versus RHP:

2B Moncada

RF Avi

1B Abreu

3B Moustakas

LF Eloy

SS Anderson

C Navaerez/Narvaez

DH Delmonico/Davidson

CF Defense First, take your pick??????

 

That's my perspective. Anyone care to summarize an opposing view?

Edited February 28, 2018 by Lillian

[Chicago White Sox]

If you can get Moose for something crazy like 4/$48M or 5/$60M then sure I’d consider it. However, I seriously doubt Boras would agree to such a contract without an opt-out, which is 100% a deal-breaker for me.

 

Therefore, stay the course / keep the draft pick, give Sanchez the 3B ABs in 2018 to see what he can be, pursue the mega 3B free agents the next two offseasons, and find short-term solutions on the cheap if needed.

[greg775]

We've pretty much exhausted this debate on whether, or not, to sign Moustakas. Here is my personal opinion and conclusion:

 

I advocate signing Moustakas to a 4 or 5 year contract, if he can be acquired for $12 Million per year, or less. Here is my argument:

 

1) 5 years covers his age 29 through 33 seasons, still prime years.

2) 3RD base is the one hole, which needs filling, now and into the foreseeable future. I love Yolmer, but he is not a middle of the order hitter

3) He provides a much needed solid LH, middle of the order, power bat

4) His 38 homers, in 2017, are a KC record and the 24 HR's, in just 74 games, on the road, are very impressive. He should be a force at Guaranteed Rate Field.

5) While he doesn't walk at an ideal rate, his strike outs are very respectable, for a true power hitter. His 2017 94 Strike outs, with 38 HR's and a .531 Slugging % was among the best in baseball. We would all like a better OBP, but if he possessed one, he would be a $20 million per year player.

6) His 2015 stats were very consistently solid, with the exception of his July .188 AVG., immediately following the time that his mother lost her struggle with cancer. He took two family leaves during that time. That .188 was more than 100 points lower than the rest of his season. If you take out that month, of understandable emotional stress, he hit .302.

7) That contract would be very reasonable, relative to today's market, and would not preclude another major commitment

8) He would not block any top prospect, currently in the organization.

9) He has valuable Post Season experience

10) Good club house guy

11) Before his knee injury, his defense was rated better than average, and he is now another year further removed from knee surgery and should be an adequate defender.

 

2019 Lineup, versus RHP:

2B Moncada

RF Avi

1B Abreu

3B Moustakas

LF Eloy

SS Anderson

C Navaerez/Narvaez

DH Delmonico/Davidson

CF Defense First, take your pick??????

 

That's my perspective. Anyone care to summarize an opposing view?

Great post. I'm assuming Sox aren't pursuing him heavily or we'd have heard more. The Hosmer to SD thing was in the news all the time as it brewed. Moose makes too much sense for Chicago. Damn, if we sign him to a five-year 60 million deal he'll be easily movable if he doesn't suddenly start sucking. I'd even be OK with 5 years, 70 million. Why not? Most of our young guys will be cheap and we can sign some pitchers with the $$$ we save from not inking Machado. Nice post, sir.

[Lillian]

If you can get Moose for something crazy like 4/$48M or 5/$60M then sure I’d consider it. However, I seriously doubt Boras would agree to such a contract without an opt-out, which is 100% a deal-breaker for me.

Therefore, stay the course / keep the draft pick, give Sanchez the 3B ABs in 2018 to see what he can be, pursue the mega 3B free agents the next two offseasons, and find short-term solutions on the cheap if needed.

 

I agree that an opt-out should not be part of the deal. If he isn't going to be part of the equation, when the competitive window opens, I'd rather others have his at bats.

My advocacy for him is with 2019, and beyond, in mind.

[he gone.]

We've pretty much exhausted this debate on whether, or not, to sign Moustakas. Here is my personal opinion and conclusion:

 

I advocate signing Moustakas to a 4 or 5 year contract, if he can be acquired for $12 Million per year, or less. Here is my argument:

 

1) 5 years covers his age 29 through 33 seasons, still prime years.

2) 3RD base is the one hole, which needs filling, now and into the foreseeable future. I love Yolmer, but he is not a middle of the order hitter

3) He provides a much needed solid LH, middle of the order, power bat

4) His 38 homers, in 2017, are a KC record and the 24 HR's, in just 74 games, on the road, are very impressive. He should be a force at Guaranteed Rate Field.

5) While he doesn't walk at an ideal rate, his strike outs are very respectable, for a true power hitter. His 2017 94 Strike outs, with 38 HR's and a .531 Slugging % was among the best in baseball. We would all like a better OBP, but if he possessed one, he would be a $20 million per year player.

6) His 2015 stats were very consistently solid, with the exception of his July .188 AVG., immediately following the time that his mother lost her struggle with cancer. He took two family leaves during that time. That .188 was more than 100 points lower than the rest of his season. If you take out that month, of understandable emotional stress, he hit .302.

7) That contract would be very reasonable, relative to today's market, and would not preclude another major commitment

8) He would not block any top prospect, currently in the organization.

9) He has valuable Post Season experience

10) Good club house guy

11) Before his knee injury, his defense was rated better than average, and he is now another year further removed from knee surgery and should be an adequate defender.

 

2019 Lineup, versus RHP:

2B Moncada

RF Avi

1B Abreu

3B Moustakas

LF Eloy

SS Anderson

C Navaerez/Narvaez

DH Delmonico/Davidson

CF Defense First, take your pick??????

 

That's my perspective. Anyone care to summarize an opposing view?

 

 

I mean, this about sums it up. I don't see the downside.

 

My main points are the above and also it doesn't even block us from signing Machado or Arenado or Donaldson if we'd like. You could just shift Moose to a 1B/3B/DH utility role and still play 140 games.

My other main point was also discussed in a post earlier - our 3B history is UGLY UGLY UGLY. We just don't do well there. We have no real prospects on the horizon and our best option in Burger is now another year off. I'd say best case scenario for Burger now stands at mid-2020. If you sign Moose for 4 years with an opt out after years 2 and 3 I think you do well.

 

I'd go something like

 

Year 1 - $10mm

Year 2 - $14mm

Opt out

Year 3 - $15mm

Opt out

Year 4 - $12mm

 

4 years, $51mm.

Throw in a few incentives for MVP voting, silver slugger, HR's etc and let him work his way towards like $5-9mm more throughout the deal. If he performs I have no problem of 4 years and $60mm

 

You backload the deal a bit more so that it's a tougher decision to opt-out. If you front load it increases his chances that he walks after 2 years. Also getting him for only 2 years would be less than ideal.

[Chicago White Sox]

I mean, this about sums it up. I don't see the downside.

 

My main points are the above and also it doesn't even block us from signing Machado or Arenado or Donaldson if we'd like. You could just shift Moose to a 1B/3B/DH utility role and still play 140 games.

My other main point was also discussed in a post earlier - our 3B history is UGLY UGLY UGLY. We just don't do well there. We have no real prospects on the horizon and our best option in Burger is now another year off. I'd say best case scenario for Burger now stands at mid-2020. If you sign Moose for 4 years with an opt out after years 2 and 3 I think you do well.

 

I'd go something like

 

Year 1 - $10mm

Year 2 - $14mm

Opt out

Year 3 - $15mm

Opt out

Year 4 - $12mm

 

4 years, $51mm.

Throw in a few incentives for MVP voting, silver slugger, HR's etc and let him work his way towards like $5-9mm more throughout the deal. If he performs I have no problem of 4 years and $60mm

 

You backload the deal a bit more so that it's a tougher decision to opt-out. If you front load it increases his chances that he walks after 2 years. Also getting him for only 2 years would be less than ideal.

Getting him for two years at the expense of a high second round draft pick is quite frankly stupid.

[caulfield12]

The Twins aren't relying on high draft picks, other than Buxton and Mauer in his final year...to contend. Gibson, but he's their #5 guy at best.

 

And, for every Hansen, there are 20 Spencer Adams or Chris Becks.

Edited February 28, 2018 by caulfield12

[ptatc]

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0

 

Nunez across two teams had a fWAR of 2.2, but also was not a part of qualified batters in the list above.

 

Only 5 teams in the MLB last year accumulated 2 WAR at 3B.

 

Where is this from, you just said 19 teams had a 2 WAR 3b? Even if they played off 3b for a portion, someone else could not be such a net negative that it drags all those teams down.

That would be my guess as both stats were from baseball reference.

 

Sorry about the Nunez. I missed the other team. According to baseball reference he had a total of 1.2 WAR while playing 53 games at 3B last year.

[ptatc]

Maybe it's like saying Yolmer was a 2 WAR 3rd baseman but he wasn't at 3rd base all the time accumulating that WAR so wasn't really a 2 WAR 3rd baseman but a 2 WAR player. He played 52 games at 3rd and 92 at all other positions.

Correct. It's difficult to find to get a player to accumulate 2 WAR while playing 3B full time.

[ptatc]

But he's still in the pool of players you could acquire to be 3b.

But could he accumulate enough WAR playing only 3B? If he was good enough why didn't the Sox play him there more? Same applies to Nunez.

[Chicago White Sox]

The Twins aren't relying on high draft picks, other than Buxton and Mauer in his final year...to contend.

 

And, for every Hansen, there are 20 Spencer Adams or Chris Becks.

I have no idea how any of this supports giving up a high draft pick to a guy to a two year deal as we enter the second year of rebuild. Who cares about the ducking Twins? Also, doesn’t matter what the pick eventually becomes. The day we draft a player we have an asset we can either develop or trade to improve the team. The whole concept of giving Moustakas an opt-out is simply idiotic given where we’re at right now.

[ptatc]

Yeah, all I'm saying you don't really mess around when it comes with the knees. It kind of reminds me of Troy Glaus who you thought was going to be this great 40 HR guy but ended up retiring at 33 partly due to shoulder problems but mainly because of his knees. It can end that fast for some guys.

There arr different knee issues that would effect them long term. ACL injury is not one. Other things like patlleofemoral pain syndrome and others would worry me.

 

The Glaus knee injuries had more to do the his "chemical enhancement" than anything.

[Dam8610]

We've pretty much exhausted this debate on whether, or not, to sign Moustakas. Here is my personal opinion and conclusion:

 

I advocate signing Moustakas to a 4 or 5 year contract, if he can be acquired for $12 Million per year, or less. Here is my argument:

 

1) 5 years covers his age 29 through 33 seasons, still prime years.

2) 3RD base is the one hole, which needs filling, now and into the foreseeable future. I love Yolmer, but he is not a middle of the order hitter

3) He provides a much needed solid LH, middle of the order, power bat

4) His 38 homers, in 2017, are a KC record and the 24 HR's, in just 74 games, on the road, are very impressive. He should be a force at Guaranteed Rate Field.

5) While he doesn't walk at an ideal rate, his strike outs are very respectable, for a true power hitter. His 2017 94 Strike outs, with 38 HR's and a .531 Slugging % was among the best in baseball. We would all like a better OBP, but if he possessed one, he would be a $20 million per year player.

6) His 2015 stats were very consistently solid, with the exception of his July .188 AVG., immediately following the time that his mother lost her struggle with cancer. He took two family leaves during that time. That .188 was more than 100 points lower than the rest of his season. If you take out that month, of understandable emotional stress, he hit .302.

7) That contract would be very reasonable, relative to today's market, and would not preclude another major commitment

8) He would not block any top prospect, currently in the organization.

9) He has valuable Post Season experience

10) Good club house guy

11) Before his knee injury, his defense was rated better than average, and he is now another year further removed from knee surgery and should be an adequate defender.

 

2019 Lineup, versus RHP:

2B Moncada

RF Avi

1B Abreu

3B Moustakas

LF Eloy

SS Anderson

C Navaerez/Narvaez

DH Delmonico/Davidson

CF Defense First, take your pick??????

 

That's my perspective. Anyone care to summarize an opposing view?

 

My opposing view is simple. Moustakas is not a star player and he would cost a draft pick and bonus pool money against the upcoming draft class as well as essentially dead money for 2018 that the team is paying him in a year they're not competing (not to mention the opportunity cost of getting Yolmer ABs). As far as I'm concerned, the contention window really begins to open with 2020 (unless things go really well this year and they sign Machado in the offseason), so you would essentially be paying him two of let's say five years for no return. Between now and 2020, both Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado, two of the top five 3Bs in MLB, become free agents. That doesn't even mention the possibility that the Sox could find a player either in their system or in the draft to fill the need before 2020. The argument to me is Moustakas vs. the field, and IMO the field will produce a more productive 3B option than Moustakas by 2020.

[caulfield12]

My opposing view is simple. Moustakas is not a star player and he would cost a draft pick and bonus pool money against the upcoming draft class as well as essentially dead money for 2018 that the team is paying him in a year they're not competing (not to mention the opportunity cost of getting Yolmer ABs). As far as I'm concerned, the contention window really begins to open with 2020 (unless things go really well this year and they sign Machado in the offseason), so you would essentially be paying him two of let's say five years for no return. Between now and 2020, both Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado, two of the top five 3Bs in MLB, become free agents. That doesn't even mention the possibility that the Sox could find a player either in their system or in the draft to fill the need before 2020. The argument to me is Moustakas vs. the field, and IMO the field will produce a more productive 3B option than Moustakas by 2020.

 

How many "star" players have the White Sox EVER brought in during their Reinsdorf history, other than Albert Belle? Adam Dunn qualifies? Todd Frazier? Robertson certainly doesn't. Now they've brought in PLENTY of stars about 3-5 years after their peak career years, when they were already well on the decline. It has never fit with the SouthSide image, in fact, which has always been more of a "blue collar/lunchbucket" ideology, at least until now.

 

(I GUESS they sort of tried with Alex Rodriguez and Tanaka, but it's hard to even argue that Tanaka has become a true star/ace that he was projected to be, and making an offer doesn't exactly establish goodwill unless you start signing more Abreu's and Luis Robert's that produce on the field. They TRIED to trade for Miguel Cabrera.)

 

How many "star" players were on the 2005 Chicago White Sox, or 2014-15 Royals?

 

Buehrle, Crede, Pods, Dye and Konerko were NOT stars. Hosmer, Perez, Moustakas, Cain, Morales....all "solid" players, but no stars in there. I guess Cain, if you go by WAR numbers and not actual hype, because he always flew under the radar.

Edited March 1, 2018 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

How many "star" players have the White Sox EVER brought in during their Reinsdorf history, other than Albert Belle? Adam Dunn qualifies? Todd Frazier? Robertson certainly doesn't. Now they've brought in PLENTY of stars about 3-5 years after their peak career years, when they were already well on the decline. It has never fit with the SouthSide image, in fact, which has always been more of a "blue collar/lunchbucket" ideology, at least until now.

 

(I GUESS they sort of tried with Alex Rodriguez and Tanaka, but it's hard to even argue that Tanaka has become a true star/ace that he was projected to be, and making an offer doesn't exactly establish goodwill unless you start signing more Abreu's and Luis Robert's that produce on the field. They TRIED to trade for Miguel Cabrera.)

 

How many "star" players were on the 2005 Chicago White Sox, or 2014-15 Royals?

 

Buehrle, Crede, Pods, Dye and Konerko were NOT stars. Hosmer, Perez, Moustakas, Cain, Morales....all "solid" players, but no stars in there. I guess Cain, if you go by WAR numbers and not actual hype, because he always flew under the radar.

Why do you feel the need to bring up the Royals every time there is a debate? The Royals having no star players when they won the World Series has nothing to do with us signing Mike Moustakas in the second year of our rebuild. You’re really all over the place trying to justify this move.

[Special K]

When we say bring in, we talking trades too? I'd say David Wells and Jake Peavy count as stars they brought in.

[BlackSox13]

Great post. I'm assuming Sox aren't pursuing him heavily or we'd have heard more. The Hosmer to SD thing was in the news all the time as it brewed. Moose makes too much sense for Chicago. Damn, if we sign him to a five-year 60 million deal he'll be easily movable if he doesn't suddenly start sucking. I'd even be OK with 5 years, 70 million. Why not? Most of our young guys will be cheap and we can sign some pitchers with the $$$ we save from not inking Machado. Nice post, sir.

LMAO. Lillian is a lady.

[caulfield12]

Why do you feel the need to bring up the Royals every time there is a debate? The Royals having no star players when they won the World Series has nothing to do with us signing Mike Moustakas in the second year of our rebuild. You're really all over the place trying to justify this move.

 

Fine...since when have the White Sox ever been in the business of "buying" a couple of superstars at max peak value?

Waiting for an answer.

 

 

The Royals are relevant because they built their WS winner without any superstars.

The Astros and Cubs are most definitely NOT an example of that.

 

I'm perfectly happy to talk about any team, but the White Sox SEEM to be emulating at least one of their niches, which is building a SUPERPEN. That came into vogue with KC, the Indians, Yankees, etc.

 

If you're talking NFL, it's the Patriots, Patriots, Patriots...etc. NBA, obviously Golden State. Who else should we be talking about as relevant comps, especially since we operate as a "mid market" franchise?

Edited March 1, 2018 by caulfield12

[Special K]

Fine...since when have the White Sox ever been in the business of "buying" a couple of superstars at max peak value?

Waiting for an answer.

 

 

The Royals are relevant because they built their WS winner without any superstars.

The Astros and Cubs are most definitely NOT an example of that.

 

I'm perfectly happy to talk about any team, but the White Sox SEEM to be emulating at least one of their niches, which is building a SUPERPEN. That came into vogue with KC, the Indians, Yankees, etc.

 

If you're talking NFL, it's the Patriots, Patriots, Patriots...etc. NBA, obviously Golden State. Who else should we be talking about as relevant comps, especially since we operate as a "mid market" franchise?

 

You're right in that Belle might be the last star they bought at peak value, which is sad. And they haven't really traded for any offensive stars either (sans Thome, if that even counts).

 

But they have so much space on their payroll, and have also shown a commitment to the rebuild, which makes me think things might go differently this time around. Because frankly, they need to buy a star or two for this to work.

[SoxAce]

LMAO. Lillian is a lady.

 

In all fairness to Greg, alot of posters didn't know that at first. Hell, some still don't (other than the obsessive-ness of lefty hitters..).

[caulfield12]

You're right in that Belle might be the last star they bought at peak value, which is sad. And they haven't really traded for any offensive stars either (sans Thome, if that even counts).

 

But they have so much space on their payroll, and have also shown a commitment to the rebuild, which makes me think things might go differently this time around. Because frankly, they need to buy a star or two for this to work.

 

Forgot about Thome, although he was injured, on the wrong side of 30 and getting pushed out by Ryan Howard.

 

Freddy Garcia is about the only other example from the last 30 years, but definitely not a superstar. All-Star, competitive for a few Cy Youngs, sure.