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southsider2k5

2018 White Sox catch-all thread

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33 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Yes, that's true, however that seems to be the norm, in this era. Even the good offensive teams don't seem to have very many high average hitters. It's a function of all of the strike outs. It's pretty hard to hit .300, when you strike out 25% to 30% of the time. Even that potent Cleveland lineup, is featuring lots of guys hitting below .275. With so many fire ballers coming out of the bull pens, and the emphasis on homers, there just aren't that many high average hitters, anymore. Among all MLB "qualifiers," there are only 50 players hitting .275 or better. That is less than 2 players, per team. 

And only 16 or so who are over .300

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34 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Yes, that's true, however that seems to be the norm, in this era. Even the good offensive teams don't seem to have very many high average hitters. It's a function of all of the strike outs. It's pretty hard to hit .300, when you strike out 25% to 30% of the time. Even that potent Cleveland lineup, is featuring lots of guys hitting below .275. With so many fire ballers coming out of the bull pens, and the emphasis on homers, there just aren't that many high average hitters, anymore. Among all MLB "qualifiers," there are only 50 players hitting .275 or better. That is less than 2 players, per team. 

That's astounding. Ironically, the 2 players we have are our catchers lol.

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10 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Would love to see him walk a bit more before I think we can feel comfortable with him as a long term option for the contention window. He honestly reminds me a bit of pre-2018 left-handed version of Adam Duvall right now. That has value, but not as a main 3, 4, 5 spot in the lineup.

Yeah I wouldn't mind him in the 6 or 7 spot and as a DH.

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9 hours ago, Lillian said:

Yes, that's true, however that seems to be the norm, in this era. Even the good offensive teams don't seem to have very many high average hitters. It's a function of all of the strike outs. It's pretty hard to hit .300, when you strike out 25% to 30% of the time. Even that potent Cleveland lineup, is featuring lots of guys hitting below .275. With so many fire ballers coming out of the bull pens, and the emphasis on homers, there just aren't that many high average hitters, anymore. Among all MLB "qualifiers," there are only 50 players hitting .275 or better. That is less than 2 players, per team. 

 

 

23 hours ago, Lillian said:

The statistic that I find most intriguing is his home run rate of one in every 15 at bats. That makes him a bonafide "slugger," and has the potential to fill the void of that elusive, middle of the order, left handed bat. If he can maintain that, going forward, that is one hole filled. Now, do they keep Avi and Abreu, next season and try to fill out the rotation, or do they trade them, and delay the contention window, until 2020, or beyond? What the front office does with those two will probably tell us, in which direction they want to go.  A lineup of Moncada, Avi, Abreu, Palka Eloy, Narvaez, Anderson etc, is probably good enough, if they have the pitching. 

The low batting average doesn't concern  me as much as the quality. The White Sox are currently 12th in the AL in runs scored and above you are telling me that adding Eloy and having Palka and Narvaez for a full season will be "probably good enough"? Seriously, go compare that to the Red Sox with Betts and Martinez, or the Native Americans with Ramirez, Lindor, and Encarnacion, or the Astros with Bregman, Correa, Altuve, and Springer, that lineup is no where close to on their level next year, not with Eloy as a rookie, he'd have to hit like 2003 Bonds to put us in a sentence with them. You add in Bryce Harper and this still isn't a top 4 offense in the AL. And that's still not even talking about the pitching, and I'll ask anyone out there if they think Rodon and Giolito is a good matchup for Kluber and Bauer or Verlander and Cole and or Severino and whoever or Sale and Price. And then on top of all of that, this team is currently at the bottom of the league in defense which Eloy isn't going to fix, so no it's not "Good enough" for next year.

In a few years, with Kopech back and more time to grow for guys, and hopefully at some point a breakout year from Moncada, and the boost from the guys currently down at A-ball, then we can start talking about this being "Good enough". The Free Agent market and Eloy aren't going to take a team that is bottom 6 in offense, defense, and pitching and put them in the playoff conversation. Not next year.

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If it's time to start the clock on Eloy, next year, it seems a waste not to try to compete. Another year of Rodon's contract will be wasted, as well as Avi and Abreu's last year. Why not try to compete next year and then move into the next phase, with a few more of the prospects, like Madrigal, Adolfo, Robert Cease, Dunning etc?

The Sox have plenty of money, as we have discussed. We have enough pieces, to begin to try to compete, with the addition of one more bat and one more arm. This team doesn't need to sign Harper or Machado, on a 10 year deal. I'd prefer to see them spend that money on 3 players, all of whom are a little older and willing to sign for 2 to 4 years. Donaldson is a good example of a guy who could help but not require a long term deal. You put Donaldson at 3RD and you have a solid infield and a potent lineup, providing Moncada and Anderson improve. If they don't, or regress, the rebuild would have big problems, as those are two key core pieces. Add Corbin to the rotation of Rodon, Lopez, Giolito and whoever takes the 5TH slot, and again, they could compete, unless they don't get some progress out of Lopez and Giolito. And, if they don't progress, that too would be a serious problem for the rebuild. 

Edited by Lillian

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18 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

Would love to see him walk a bit more before I think we can feel comfortable with him as a long term option for the contention window. He honestly reminds me a bit of pre-2018 left-handed version of Adam Duvall right now. That has value, but not as a main 3, 4, 5 spot in the lineup.

Granted he looked silly on some breaking balls this week so he will have to learn to lay off. He has the emotional makeup to be successful and he expects to succeed. Never batted in the bigs before the Sox. He deserves at least another year to DH. I hope Elroy does not end up there but his glove may be suspect. Lord knows we need more offense. 

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8 hours ago, Lillian said:

If it's time to start the clock on Eloy, next year, it seems a waste not to try to compete. Another year of Rodon's contract will be wasted, as well as Avi and Abreu's last year. Why not try to compete next year and then move into the next phase, with a few more of the prospects, like Madrigal, Adolfo, Robert Cease, Dunning etc?

The Sox have plenty of money, as we have discussed. We have enough pieces, to begin to try to compete, with the addition of one more bat and one more arm. This team doesn't need to sign Harper or Machado, on a 10 year deal. I'd prefer to see them spend that money on 3 players, all of whom are a little older and willing to sign for 2 to 4 years. Donaldson is a good example of a guy who could help but not require a long term deal. You put Donaldson at 3RD and you have a solid infield and a potent lineup, providing Moncada and Anderson improve. If they don't, or regress, the rebuild would have big problems, as those are two key core pieces. Add Corbin to the rotation of Rodon, Lopez, Giolito and whoever takes the 5TH slot, and again, they could compete, unless they don't get some progress out of Lopez and Giolito. And, if they don't progress, that too would be a serious problem for the rebuild. 

Lillian: With respect they need a hell of a lot more than just one more bat and one more arm. Try two solid starters, basically a brand new bullpen, at least three guys, and a new outfield. It would also help if they could get a catcher who can both hit a little and actually catch the baseball.

2019 is going to be another very long season.

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6 hours ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Lillian: With respect they need a hell of a lot more than just one more bat and one more arm. Try two solid starters, basically a brand new bullpen, at least three guys, and a new outfield. It would also help if they could get a catcher who can both hit a little and actually catch the baseball.

2019 is going to be another very long season.

If Rodon, Lopez, Giolito and a solid #2 through free agency, like Corbin, wouldn't give them a solid front four, then the rebuild has serious problems. It's reasonable to hope for Giolito and Lopez to take a step forward. They have shown flashes of being very good, but inconsistent. Covey is probably OK, as a 5TH starter, for one year until Kopech and Cease arrive in 2020..

If next year's outfield of Eloy in LF and Avi in RF and whoever can provide plus defense in CF, wouldn't be adequate, then we are going to be disappointed in Eloy.

The bullpen is a wild card, as always, but there are some decent options. 

What is so lacking in an offense featuring Moncada, Avi, Donaldson, Abreu, Palka, Eloy, Narvaez, Anderson and whoever plays CF.

 

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The following projections for 2019 seems reasonable, if Moncada and Palka can improve a little, in their second full seasons:

                               HR       AVG.    OBP

2B Moncada.            25          .250       .350   

3B Donaldson.         35          .275       .375

1B Abreu                  30            .290      .350

DH Palka                   30            .250      .330

LF  Eloy                      25            .280      .340

C   Narvaez               10            .270       .360

RF Avi.                        25.           .280       .330

SS Anderson             20            .250        .300

CF Engel (With that offense and Eloy and Avi at the corners, his defense in CF would justify below average offense)

Edited by Lillian

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1 hour ago, Lillian said:

The following projections for 2019 seems reasonable, if Moncada and Palka can improve a little, in their second full seasons:

                               HR       AVG.    OBP

2B Moncada.            25          .250       .350   

3B Donaldson.         35          .275       .375

1B Abreu                  30            .290      .350

DH Palka                   30            .250      .330

LF  Eloy                      25            .280      .340

C   Narvaez               10            .270       .360

RF Avi.                        25.           .280       .330

SS Anderson             20            .250        .300

CF Engel (With that offense and Eloy and Avi at the corners, his defense in CF would justify below average offense)

The only thing that would hold Donaldson back from those numbers is his health. He should probably sit once a week (and/or DH another game every week) to help stay on the field. 

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So everyone is going to improve. I would love to live in that reality. 

In all seriousness, if that is what the team would be counting on, it's going to be a really long road to contention.

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1 hour ago, Dick Allen said:

So everyone is going to improve. I would love to live in that reality. 

In all seriousness, if that is what the team would be counting on, it's going to be a really long road to contention.

The only ones, for whom I projected better numbers than their historical norm are Moncada and Palka, the two rookies. Everyone else pretty much has the kind of projected stats, which would be consistent with what they have done, weighted more heavily for the last couple of years, in the case of someone like Avi, who only "broke out" last year. Certainly Abreu and Donaldson have both performed at that level, or better. There is no track record for Eloy, of course, but those numbers seem reasonable, for our projected "Super Star" of the future, even if in his rookie year.

Yes, I indeed stated that the young pitchers would need to improve, but that is both a reasonable expectation and one which better transpire, or this rebuild is in serious question. I think with Rodon and Corbin at the top of the rotation, Lopez and Giolito should be able to fill the #3 and #4 spots. If neither of them are going to fulfill that expectation, then I guess we have to wait and hope the Sox can find some arms to fill out the rotation, behind Kopech and Cease, in 2020 and beyond. Dunning could certainly be one of those guys, but Hansen is a huge question mark. 

Edited by Lillian

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6 hours ago, Lillian said:

If Rodon, Lopez, Giolito and a solid #2 through free agency, like Corbin, wouldn't give them a solid front four, then the rebuild has serious problems. It's reasonable to hope for Giolito and Lopez to take a step forward. They have shown flashes of being very good, but inconsistent. Covey is probably OK, as a 5TH starter, for one year until Kopech and Cease arrive in 2020..

If next year's outfield of Eloy in LF and Avi in RF and whoever can provide plus defense in CF, wouldn't be adequate, then we are going to be disappointed in Eloy.

The bullpen is a wild card, as always, but there are some decent options. 

What is so lacking in an offense featuring Moncada, Avi, Donaldson, Abreu, Palka, Eloy, Narvaez, Anderson and whoever plays CF.

 

Covey shouldn't even be a 5th starter in double A, if you are actually trying to compete next year you need five solid starters, not four, (two of who are young and one has an injury history). Look back at the White Sox staffs of 1996, 2003 and 2004 to see the impact of not having a solid back end starter on your staff. When I said three outfielders I was counting Eloy as one of them. Both A. Garcia and L. Garcia need to be sent packing if for no other reason they are useless always being injured. 

I go back to the basic premise, unless the Sox dramatically overspend in their offer why would anybody want to sign with a franchise that has had six straight losing seasons, nine out of the last 12 and have shown little growth potential as of yet? (because most of the best prospects are either injured or still a few years away.)

Maybe I'm wrong, I've basically forgotten what meaningful September games are like save for watching my tapes and DVD's of the Sox in better years, but I can't see 2019 being worth a damn either at this point.

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Patrick Corbin may be a Top 10 pitcher in baseball, with a pretty good track record. The 30 year old will probably get $125-150M contract. Not sure ownership will go there. 

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2 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Covey shouldn't even be a 5th starter in double A, if you are actually trying to compete next year you need five solid starters, not four, (two of who are young and one has an injury history). Look back at the White Sox staffs of 1996, 2003 and 2004 to see the impact of not having a solid back end starter on your staff. When I said three outfielders I was counting Eloy as one of them. Both A. Garcia and L. Garcia need to be sent packing if for no other reason they are useless always being injured. 

I go back to the basic premise, unless the Sox dramatically overspend in their offer why would anybody want to sign with a franchise that has had six straight losing seasons, nine out of the last 12 and have shown little growth potential as of yet? (because most of the best prospects are either injured or still a few years away.)

Maybe I'm wrong, I've basically forgotten what meaningful September games are like save for watching my tapes and DVD's of the Sox in better years, but I can't see 2019 being worth a damn either at this point.

No, and no.

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

No, and no.

I was referring to Lillian's post since she is advocating that they do. I don't see how it is even remotely possible.

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So then, I assume that you gentlemen favor trading Abreu and Avi, for more prospects, and simply tanking again, next year, in hopes of acquiring more high Draft choices. I wouldn't expect to get much for Avi, after his injury plagued year. Not sure what Jose would bring either, given his age and his being a first baseman/DH.

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41 minutes ago, Baker said:

Patrick Corbin may be a Top 10 pitcher in baseball, with a pretty good track record. The 30 year old will probably get $125-150M contract. Not sure ownership will go there. 

I've asked before without an answer, why is there the love fest for Corbin.  Top 10?????????  Maybe this season, but overall? Going forward?

Coming into this season he had a 4.12 ERA, a WHIP of 1.35, 7.9 K/9, and was 45-47.  Even factoring in this year, his ERA this season is almost a full run lower than his career number.  

Yeah, he has been great this year, and Arizona is a tough place to pitch.  He will be turning 30 during next season and this year will be the 2nd of his career working 200 innings.  He will probably get it, but going beyond 13-15 million / 4-5 years (even that is probably more than I'd give him if I were the GM) seems crazy for him. 

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Just now, turnin' two said:

I've asked before without an answer, why is there the love fest for Corbin.  Top 10?????????  Maybe this season, but overall? Going forward?

Coming into this season he had a 4.12 ERA, a WHIP of 1.35, 7.9 K/9, and was 45-47.  Even factoring in this year, his ERA this season is almost a full run lower than his career number.  

Yeah, he has been great this year, and Arizona is a tough place to pitch.  He will be turning 30 during next season and this year will be the 2nd of his career working 200 innings.  He will probably get it, but going beyond 13-15 million / 4-5 years (even that is probably more than I'd give him if I were the GM) seems crazy for him. 

I maybe the only one, but he screams contract year to me.   I have zero interest in  $100 million deal with him.  Every single major stat of his is a career year BY FAR.

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1 hour ago, Lillian said:

So then, I assume that you gentlemen favor trading Abreu and Avi, for more prospects, and simply tanking again, next year, in hopes of acquiring more high Draft choices. I wouldn't expect to get much for Avi, after his injury plagued year. Not sure what Jose would bring either, given his age and his being a first baseman/DH.

Yes. I agree they should explore options for trading both those guys. I'd like to keep Jose' around if but they can get something decent for him, you move him. Regarding A.Garcia, since the guy is a walking injury waiting to happen they won't get much for him anyway so personally I wouldn't care if they just cut him. Just tired of his bad defense and ability to always be hurt.

Believe me I don't like tanking. These are the Chicago White Sox not the San Diego Padres or Pittsburgh Pirates but with so many kids still two years away it is the logical thing to do (short of ownership spending millions on free agents which they really haven't done much and when they do they fall right on their faces.)

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4 minutes ago, Lip Man 1 said:

Yes. I agree they should explore options for trading both those guys. I'd like to keep Jose' around if but they can get something decent for him, you move him. Regarding A.Garcia, since the guy is a walking injury waiting to happen they won't get much for him anyway so personally I wouldn't care if they just cut him. Just tired of his bad defense and ability to always be hurt.

Believe me I don't like tanking. These are the Chicago White Sox not the San Diego Padres or Pittsburgh Pirates but with so many kids still two years away it is the logical thing to do (short of ownership spending millions on free agents which they really haven't done much and when they do they fall right on their faces.)

I agree with most of this except the part about spending millions. They shouldn't next year, unless one great player falls into them. They have many prospectswaiting to come up in 2020. Why take the chance now. Wait to see which prospects succeed and which won't don't 

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We need to start winning more games NEXT year to maintain fan interest. I don't want to see any more tanking nor do I want to overspend millions on free agents (primo free agents won't come here unless we're the highest bidder). 

I think we can accomplish this.  Improvement should come in the everyday lineup (with Eloy added) and the 3 starting pitchers we currently have in the rotation (no Shields and no Kopech next year).  There are several options for the  other 2 starters yet to be determined

Where we do need to spend on help is for 2 or 3 affordable bullpen pitchers.  With a couple of exceptions, the current guys are obviously not cutting it.  Too many blown leads late in the game.  

We're not going to compete for a division title next year, but we do need to improve to 70-75 wins and then a winning record in 2020 when more of the "future of the team" makes it to the big club. 

 

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