Moncada

[Jack Parkman]

We're all frustrated, but if he doesn't break out of it in the next week or two he'll be approaching Mendoza, then Buxton territory. Not good. The tools are there, I hope it doesn't take too long for him to figure it out. It took Gordon/Moustakas/Hosmer a while too but they ended up ok. They floundered for 2+ full seasons before the light went on. That is a bad case, but all is not lost with Moncada. I still believe that if or when the light comes on with him he could be a 7+ WAR guy annually. 

Edited July 1, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

1 hour ago, BlackSox13 said:

Thanks man. Truth be told I remember when the trades began and the rebuilders were happy( myself being one of them), a certain Soxtalk member said something that stuck with me and keep reminding myself of. It was something along the lines of that this rebuild will take some time due to the time it takes to develop young minor league talent and then even more time to develop them in the majors. That poster speculated it could be 2021or later before they become competitive again due to the talent being so young and far away from the majors. Care to take a guess who it is?

Sounds like kind of an ass if you ask me. 

[LittleHurt05]

5 hours ago, fathom said:

Hate comparing front offices of Cubs and Astros with Hahn and company. Theo and Luhnow.  Those two came to their current organizations highly accomplished with Boston/StL.  Meanwhile Hahn has been less than impressive during his tenure with the Sox. He's done nothing to illustrate he knows how to build a contender.

Hahn and KW would have been  fired in any other organization by now, but 2005.

[Jack Parkman]

52 minutes ago, LittleHurt05 said:

Hahn and KW would have been  fired in any other organization by now, but 2005.

This is very true. There is no way every major prospect can flame out, can they? 

I don't think it is going to go down that way, but it would be a very White Sox occurrence for them to get zero stars and only a few average players out of this whole thing. Hahn/KW's player evaluation is very suspect, to say the least. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[greg775]

2 hours ago, Jack Parkman said:

We're all frustrated, but if he doesn't break out of it in the next week or two he'll be approaching Mendoza, then Buxton territory. Not good. The tools are there, I hope it doesn't take too long for him to figure it out. It took Gordon/Moustakas/Hosmer a while too but they ended up ok. They floundered for 2+ full seasons before the light went on. That is a bad case, but all is not lost with Moncada. I still believe that if or when the light comes on with him he could be a 7+ WAR guy annually. 

I'd let Abreu mentor him some more or even Big Hurt have a conversation or two with him. Big Hurt actually should be our hitting coach if he'd do it. The man could draw a base on balls and when he swung he hurt the ball quite often. 

[LittleHurt05]

13 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

This is very true. There is no way every major prospect can flame out, can they? 

I don't think it is going to go down that way, but it would be a very White Sox occurrence for them to get zero stars and only a few average players out of this whole thing. Hahn/KW's player evaluation is very suspect, to say the least. 

Hahn seems like a breath of fresh air after KW, but he has been in  the org nearly just as long and KW still makes decisions too. But you cant fire the owner no matter how mad fans get,  and this owner can't fire any of his friends that won him a ring. 

The big trades all look great on paper,  so we got that going for us. 

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, LittleHurt05 said:

Hahn seems like a breath of fresh air after KW, but he has been in  the org nearly just as long and KW still makes decisions too. But you cant fire the owner no matter how mad fans get,  and this owner can't fire any of his friends that won him a ring. 

The big trades all look great on paper,  so we got that going for us. 

IIRC most people thought the Sale trade was light, and needed either Benintendi or Devers instead of Diaz. 

[Jake]

28 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

IIRC most people thought the Sale trade was light, and needed either Benintendi or Devers instead of Diaz. 

If anyone was reacting like that, they were a small minority. Some may have been hoping for a swap of Benintendi for Moncada or Devers for Kopech in that deal, but the reception to the deal was extremely positive around here.

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, Jake said:

If anyone was reacting like that, they were a small minority. Some may have been hoping for a swap of Benintendi for Moncada or Devers for Kopech in that deal, but the reception to the deal was extremely positive around here.

It was positive, but I do remember people saying that they were ok with it, it was probably the best they could do, but still light for a perennial Cy Young caliber pitcher with 3 years left on an extremely team friendly deal. 

[Richie]

I am not there yet. I am going to give him the second half. However, I am quite close to stepping my foot onto the "worried about Moncada" train. 

However, if he finishes 20/20 and gets that average back up to .245 or .250. With a solid OPS. Eh... all is right again. 

[Flash Tizzle]

25 minutes ago, Richie said:

I am not there yet. I am going to give him the second half. However, I am quite close to stepping my foot onto the "worried about Moncada" train. 

However, if he finishes 20/20 and gets that average back up to .245 or .250. With a solid OPS. Eh... all is right again. 

If Moncada doesn't reach that reasonable benchmark, it's time to openly criticize the organization. Either they overestimated Moncada (their fault) or don't have the coaches capable of working with him (again their fault). 

A rebuild is obviously an opportunity for development, but he isn't learning in a vacuum -- his value is tied to an unprecedented trade deal involving a perrenial Cy Young contender/possible HOF pitcher. We didn't trade Sale to accept a 2 year learning curve for a highly regarded prospect. I feel like we constantly lose sight of the value we traded. There's no room for excuses or errors. They need to fix it, or else, may as well complete the rebuild and fix the front office. 

That's just Moncada, mind you. We haven't even been treated with Kopech and Jimenez yet; but I'll set the stage now. "You can't expect every prospect to immediately succeed and sustain success!" Well, how about 1? 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Flash Tizzle

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, Jack Parkman said:

It was positive, but I do remember people saying that they were ok with it, it was probably the best they could do, but still light for a perennial Cy Young caliber pitcher with 3 years left on an extremely team friendly deal. 

I thought it was good but wanted the 3rd piece to be a little better (not Benintendi better but somewhere in between Benintendi and Basabe). Of course, Basabe has been shutting me up lately...

[Jose Abreu]

13 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

That's just Moncada, mind you. We haven't even been treated with Kopech and Jimenez yet; but I'll set the stage now. "You can't expect every prospect to immediately succeed and sustain success!" Well, how about 1? 

I mean, how many across baseball have been doing so this year? Juan Soto (still in very limited sample size)? Albies has been garbage for a bit, on both sides of the ball. Torres has been one of the worst defenders in baseball, perhaps the worst other than Machado. Devers has been pretty bad overall. It's not like all of baseball is hitting on their top guys immediately and we're the only ones that are not. 

[southsider2k5]

31 minutes ago, Flash Tizzle said:

If Moncada doesn't reach that reasonable benchmark, it's time to openly criticize the organization. Either they overestimated Moncada (their fault) or don't have the coaches capable of working with him (again their fault). 

A rebuild is obviously an opportunity for development, but he isn't learning in a vacuum -- his value is tied to an unprecedented trade deal involving a perrenial Cy Young contender/possible HOF pitcher. We didn't trade Sale to accept a 2 year learning curve for a highly regarded prospect. I feel like we constantly lose sight of the value we traded. There's no room for excuses or errors. They need to fix it, or else, may as well complete the rebuild and fix the front office. 

That's just Moncada, mind you. We haven't even been treated with Kopech and Jimenez yet; but I'll set the stage now. "You can't expect every prospect to immediately succeed and sustain success!" Well, how about 1? 

Then you weren't ready for a rebuild. 

[Flash Tizzle]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Then you weren't ready for a rebuild. 

No greater insult can be given. I've been ready for a rebuild since 2007 lol. 

I believe it's reasonable to worry about Moncada if, after the conclusion of the season, he hasn't improved. I'd place a .245/.320/.700+OPS slash as an expected goal. That doesn't mean abandon him for 2019 or line up replacements. We've seen with Avi Garcia how long it can take for everything to click. I understand it's a process, but perhaps I just expected more out of Moncada then many here did. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Flash Tizzle

[BlackSox13]

3 hours ago, Jake said:

If anyone was reacting like that, they were a small minority. Some may have been hoping for a swap of Benintendi for Moncada or Devers for Kopech in that deal, but the reception to the deal was extremely positive around here.

This is the way I remember it as well Jake. Good call.

[Lillian]

We're all entitled to our opinions, even if they border on hyperbole, and even hysteria. Here are a few of mine, regarding Moncada:

1) He has exceptional "tools". He is strong, fast and athletic.

2) He is not a switch hitter. He is a left handed hitter, who has been unjustifiably billed as a switch hitter. Perhaps he can learn to become one, but at this point, he isn't.

3) He is not 6' 2", although that it is what is claimed. I would guess 6'

4) I've said this before, and others have expressed the same opinion, but he has a lot more style, than actual baseball skill. Some might think that "pretty swing," looks good, even when striking out. Don't count me as one of them. His fielding fundamentals are not conventional and not very good. Perhaps he should stop trying to emulate his idol, Cano and just focus on making plays.

5) Having received $31 million, before ever proving his ability to play Major League baseball is a significant obstacle to his ultimate success. We'll see how he overcomes that. It's always a consideration, but especially problematic for a young guy, with a lot to learn. Learning takes dedication and all that money doesn't incentivize hard work and dedication. 

6) I'm very worried about who is going to mentor this young man, if Abreu is traded. He strikes me as someone who really needs mentoring.

7) We've discussed his approach, at the plate, ad nauseam. Therefore, all I'll say here is that it needs to change. How well he can make adjustments will be an important indication about his future in professional baseball.

That's my opinion

[Chicago White Sox]

The question I have with Moncada is what’s changed since his injury?  Look at the splits below (pre / post injury).  Despite striking out a ton, the kid was absolutely murdering the ball.  His line drive & hard contact rates were amongst the highest in the leagues and that shows in his power numbers.  Since the injuries, his entire offensive game has regressed (with the exception of strikeouts) to the point of being a terrible hitter.  These can not be the same player and the insane tools suggest that the pre-injury player (with some BABIP regression) is there in there.  Is Moncada not healthy?  Is he having swing / approach issues?  Has the league adjusted how they’re attacking him?  There has to be explanation for how he want from one of the best to one of the worst hitters in such a short period of time.

PA: 132 / 198

BB %: 12.9% / 5.6%

K %: 37.1% / 34.3%

ISO: .246 / .130

LD %: 29.2 / 17.8%

Hard %: 51.5% / 35.6%

BABIP: .407 / .281

OPS: .868 / .566

wRC+: 139 / 53

[SCCWS]

9 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

I mean, how many across baseball have been doing so this year? Juan Soto (still in very limited sample size)? Albies has been garbage for a bit, on both sides of the ball. Torres has been one of the worst defenders in baseball, perhaps the worst other than Machado. Devers has been pretty bad overall. It's not like all of baseball is hitting on their top guys immediately and we're the only ones that are not. 

Offensively, Devers has been pretty solid and he is 2 years younger than Moncada.  Devers has struggled at 3rd but unfortunately he seems to be improving there. But w 500+ ABS his OPS is over .750 and last I saw he was on track for 25HR /75RBI which is solid for a 21 year old. 

[Jose Abreu]

47 minutes ago, SCCWS said:

Offensively, Devers has been pretty solid and he is 2 years younger than Moncada.  Devers has struggled at 3rd but unfortunately he seems to be improving there. But w 500+ ABS his OPS is over .750 and last I saw he was on track for 25HR /75RBI which is solid for a 21 year old. 

Yeah I missed that his offense has improved somewhat. His defense is another story though- improving but still very bad 

[fathom]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

The question I have with Moncada is what’s changed since his injury?  Look at the splits below (pre / post injury).  Despite striking out a ton, the kid was absolutely murdering the ball.  His line drive & hard contact rates were amongst the highest in the leagues and that shows in his power numbers.  Since the injuries, his entire offensive game has regressed (with the exception of strikeouts) to the point of being a terrible hitter.  These can not be the same player and the insane tools suggest that the pre-injury player (with some BABIP regression) is there in there.  Is Moncada not healthy?  Is he having swing / approach issues?  Has the league adjusted how they’re attacking him?  There has to be explanation for how he want from one of the best to one of the worst hitters in such a short period of time.

PA: 132 / 198

BB %: 12.9% / 5.6%

K %: 37.1% / 34.3%

ISO: .246 / .130

LD %: 29.2 / 17.8%

Hard %: 51.5% / 35.6%

BABIP: .407 / .281

OPS: .868 / .566

wRC+: 139 / 53

He's pulling off the ball. Same thing he was doing when struggling early in the year (remember home opener vs Tigers?). Instead of squaring up the pitches he makes contact with, he's hitting more off end of bat or fouling off to the left side.  

Edited July 2, 2018 by fathom

[LittleHurt05]

10 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Then you weren't ready for a rebuild. 

At what point can you change from the pains of a rebuild to a sub-par front office and scouting staff?  While people do need to be patient, results should be expected at some point and the people in charge haven't earned the benefit of the doubt.

[Bob Sacamano]

2 minutes ago, LittleHurt05 said:

At what point can you change from the pains of a rebuild to a sub-par front office and scouting staff?  While people do need to be patient, results should be expected at some point and the people in charge haven't earned the benefit of the doubt.

Maybe start expecting some sort of results next year. This year was more likely going to be worse than last year unless the young guys at the MLB level (Moncada, Giolioto, Lopez, Fulmer, followed by Kopech and Eloy) were stellar and had almost no struggles, which was unlikely. Anyone who thought otherwise was delusional.

Edited July 2, 2018 by soxfan2014

[southsider2k5]

28 minutes ago, LittleHurt05 said:

At what point can you change from the pains of a rebuild to a sub-par front office and scouting staff?  While people do need to be patient, results should be expected at some point and the people in charge haven't earned the benefit of the doubt.

We haven't even gotten close to the meat of the rebuild yet.  Only the tip of the iceberg is here.  As you look down the list the Sox had 20 all-stars in their minor league system so far this year, including the two later ones from Charlotte.  They are having some big years from unexpected guys, some great follow up years from guys who are top level guys and the youngest at their levels, plus rebound years from others.  The minors are on fire right now.  Sounds like the scouting staff is doing fine to me in the macro sense.

In the micro sense, sure some specific guys have struggle, mostly at the top levels.  I am still not sure why that is a surprise.  Am I the only one who remembers a very similar to Moncada in Javy Baez look like absolute trash his first year in the majors, striking out at a 40% rate, and requiring multiple trips to the minors? Anthony Rizzo wasn't exactly a star right off of the bat was he? 

Jon Singleton was supposed to be a star, and a fool for taking an extension before even seeing the majors.  Jose Altuve was a sub .700 OPS in his three season of major league action. Dallas Keuchel was terrible in his first year and a half at the major league level.  Heck I won't even get into the gigantic screw ups the Astros made in the draft.

None of what has happened this year is unusual, or should be a surprise.  Most kids struggle when they get to the majors.

[southsider2k5]

36 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Maybe start expecting some sort of results next year. This year was more likely going to be worse than last year unless the young guys at the MLB level (Moncada, Giolioto, Lopez, Fulmer, followed by Kopech and Eloy) were stellar and had almost no struggles, which was unlikely. Anyone who thought otherwise was delusional.

I spent all off season saying exactly this.