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It is going to get worse before it gets better


ScootsMcGoots
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8 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

Did the Astros rebuild ever look this uncertain? Just curious.

The Sox official rebuild started on 12/6/16 with the Chris Sale trade. 

The Astros official rebuild started on 7/29/10 with the Oswalt and Berkman trades. The Astros went 70-92 in 2014, the 4th worst record in MLB after having the worst record the previous 3 seasons. They then had their 1st winning season in 2015 (86-76 and made the playoffs.) since 2008.

It took the Astros rebuild 4 1/2 years to pay off. The Sox are 1 year and 5 months into their rebuild. Patience people. 

Was it uncertain for the Astros during that time. Yes. Mark Appel was a complete bust as a #1 pick and they failed to sign Aiken the following season. Having the worst record 3 years in a row, and then the 4th worst record is hard to stomach for any fan base. Then it paid off for Houston. The Astros hit it big in the draft with Springer, Correa, Bregman, Keuchel, and McCullers. They also hit it big with Altuve and Gurriel in the international market. T

 

he Astros only had 1 player that played on their 1st rebuilding season in 2011 that played during their playoff season in 2015: Jose Altuve. Everyone else from the 2011 team was gone by 2015.

The Sox already have some potential pieces in place for 4 years into the rebuild (2021) that played during the 1st season of the rebuild in Moncada, Anderson, Rodon, Lopez, Giolito, Yolmer, Davidson, Narvaez, Delmonico, Nate Jones (still under contract through 2021), Fulmer, and Bummer. 

 

The Astros then went on to have the following picks after they started their rebuild:

2011 - 11th (George Springer)

2012 - 1st  (Carlos Correa)

2013 - 1st (Mark Appel who was later traded for closer Ken Giles)

2014 - 1st (Brady Aiken didn't sign**lucky bastards**)

2015 - 2nd (Alex Bregman) due to Aiken not signing. 5th (Kyle Tucker). 

Since the rebuild started the Sox have the following draft picks:

2017 - 11th (Jake Burger)

2018 -  4th (????)

2019 - Most likely Top 5 pick

Add Top 5 picks in 2018 and 2019 to Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Carlos Rodon, Yolmer Sanchez, Eloy Jimenez, Michael Kopech, Luis Robert, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Carson Fulmer, Alec Hansen, Dane Dunning, Dylan Cease, Blake Rutherford, Zack Collins, Jake Burger, Zack Burdi, Seby Zavala, Luis Alexander Basabe, Micker Adolfo and others and the Sox will continue to have a loaded system. 

 

Everyone on the Astros 2015 team who had over 320 PA was under 30. The major starters on the Astros 2015 season:

C - Jason Castro (Drafted in 1st round by Houston in 2008 before rebuild)

1B - Chris Carter (Acquired via trade in 2013)

2B - Jose Altuve (International Free Agent signing 3/07 by Astros)

SS - Carlos Correa (Drafted #1 overall by Houston in 2012)

3B - Luis Valbuena (Acquired via trade in 2015 for Dexter Fowler)

LF - Preston Tucker (Drafted in 7th round by Houston in 2012)

CF - Jake Marisnick (Acquired via trade in 2014 for Jarred Cosart)

RF - George Springer (Drafted in 1st round by Houston in 2011)

DH - Evan Gattis (Acquired via trade in 2015 for Mike Foltynewicz (Houston 1st round pick in 2010) & Rio Ruiz (Houston 4th round pick in 2012))

IF - Marwin Gonzalez (Acquired via trade in 2011 for Marco Duarte)

OF - Colby Rasmus (Acquired via Free Agency in 2015)

OF - Carlos Gomez (Acquired via trade 7/30/15 with Mike Fiers for Josh Hader, Adrian Houser (Houston 2nd round pick in 2011), Domingo Santana, and Brett Phillips (Houston 6th round pick in 2012)

SP - Dallas Keuchel (Drafted in 7th round in 2009 before rebuild)

SP - Collin McHugh (Selected off waivers in 2013)

SP - Lance McCullers (Drafted in Supplemental 1st round by Houston in 2012 (compensation for Clint Barmes))

SP - Scott Feldman (Acquired via Free Agency in 2013)

SP - Roberto Hernandez (Acquired via Free Agency in 2015)

SP - Scott Kazmir (Acquired via trade in 2015 for Jacob Nottingham (Houston 6th round pick in 2013) & Daniel Mengden (Houston 4th round pick in 2014))

SP - Mike Fiers (Acquired via trade 7/30/15)

CP - Luke Gregerson (Acquired via Free Agency in 2014)

RP - Will Harris (selected off waivers in 2014)

RP - Pat Neshek (Acquired via Free Agency in 2014)

RP - Tony Sipp (Acquired via Free Agency in 2014)

RP - Chad Qualls (Acquired via Free Agency in 2013)

 

The Astros 2017 World Series Team had

C - Brian McCann (Acquired via trade 11/17/16 for Albert Abreu and Jorge Guzman)

1B - Yuli Gurriel (Acquired via International Free Agency 7/16/16)

2B - Altuve

SS - Correa

3B - Bregman

LF - Nori Aoki (Acquired via waivers 11/3/16, then later traded with Teoscar Hernandez (international free agent signing) for Francisco Liriano on 7/31/17)

CF - Springer

RF - Josh Reddick (Acquired via Free Agency 11/23/16)

DH - Carlos Beltran (Acquired via Free Agency 12/5/16)

UTIL - M. Gonzalez

UTIL - Gattis

OF - Marisnick

SP - Fiers

SP - Keuchel

SP - McCullers

SP - McHugh

SP - Charlie Morton (Acquired via Free Agency 11/16/16)

SP - Brad Peacock (Acquired via trade 2/4/13 with Chris Carter & Max Stassi for Fernando Rodriguez and Jed Lowrie)

SP - Joe Musgrove (Acquired via trade 7/20/12, then used later to trade for Gerrit Cole)

SP - Justin Verlander (Acquired via waiver trade 8/31/17 for Daz Cameron (Houston 37th pick in 2015 draft), Franklin Perez (international signing in 2015), and Jake Rogers (Houston 3rd round pick in 2016). 

CP - Ken Giles (Acquired via trade 12/12/15 for Mark Appel (Houston 1st round 2013, Harold Arauz (international free agent), Tom Eshelman (Houston 2nd round pick 2015), Brett Oberholtzer, Vince Velasquez (Houston 2nd round 2010)

RP -  Chris Devenski (Acquired via trade 8/3/12 as player to be named to complete trade for Brett Myers) Damn it. 

RP - Gregerson

Edited by Sox Fan In Husker Land
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Every time the Astros are brought up, someone should point out that out of the drafts that had Kris Bryant and Carlos Rodon/Aaron Nola/Jeff Hofmann/Trea Turner, the Astros got nothing other than a 2015 compensation pick out of 2 straight #1 picks.

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Yeah, the Astros made a lot of mistakes.

But they also drafted extremely well when you look at Correa, McCullers, Springer, Bregman, Fisher, Tucker, etc.

Sure, it seems they were “lucky” with Marwin Gonzalez, Altuve, Morton, Keuchel, but that’s what strong organizations do consistently.  Or that Verlander has been more effective than his 2006 version. Or that Cole looks like was supposed to look for the Pirates all along.

You can’t control injuries...as much as Herm is a miracle worker.

You do have to convert on most of your first rounders (especially top 10ish) and select the right free agents, and develop all that talent in the minors.

Those are the two question marks hanging over this organization, especially with Avi backsliding into a non-tender at the rate he’s going.

A list comprised of Hawkins, Rodon (assuming we have to trade him), Fulmer, Collins and Burger isn’t going to get it done.  They have to be better, it’s that simple.  So far, the minor league results (except for Collins and injuries) this season have been very encouraging, at least.

Edited by caulfield12
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22 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Every time the Astros are brought up, someone should point out that out of the drafts that had Kris Bryant and Carlos Rodon/Aaron Nola/Jeff Hofmann/Trea Turner, the Astros got nothing other than a 2015 compensation pick out of 2 straight #1 picks.

Or, they actually were better off passing on Aiken (look at his numbers with CLE org), drafted the player that won the World Series for them in Bregman, drafted a consensus Top LH hitting prospect in Kyle Tucker and were able to include Daz Cameron to the trade that brought back Verlander.

Meanwhile, Kolek bombed and one of the best young pitchers of his generation tragically died in a boating accident, and it’s easy to see why the Astros and Marlins took two quite different forks in the road from similar positions (organizationally) 3 years ago.

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6 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Or, they actually were better off passing on Aiken (look at his numbers with CLE org), drafted the player that won the World Series for them in Bregman, drafted a consensus Top LH hitting prospect in Kyle Tucker and were able to include Daz Cameron to the trade that brought back Verlander.

Meanwhile, Kolek bombed and one of the best young pitchers of his generation tragically died in a boating accident, and it’s easy to see why the Astros and Marlins took two quite different forks in the road from similar positions (organizationally) 3 years ago.

How the F*** did Fernandez get into that post? I feel like I just got a concussion from that direction change.

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Fine, I could have left that out...but none of those three top pitchers have lived up to their billing.

Just look at that draft now and repick.

The Cubs overdrafted Schwarber (seemingly) and he could still theoretically have the best career fwar of the top four guys...which is why a 50 win team this year for the Sox doesn’t guarantee nearly as much as it would in the NBA or even NFL.

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55 minutes ago, Scoots said:

Anyone watching this current game...like I said, it is going to get worse before it gets better.

My point is it didn't have to be this bad and you could still be rebuilding. This is insulting to any baseball fan. I can only hope the fans start booing and booing long and hard.

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5 minutes ago, greg775 said:

My point is it didn't have to be this bad and you could still be rebuilding. This is insulting to any baseball fan. I can only hope the fans start booing and booing long and hard.

It coulda been worse, like the Astros. Greg, of course, believes that 2017 world series championship was totally not worth it, and they would have been better winning 70 games a year and not winning that title.

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8 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It coulda been worse, like the Astros. Greg, of course, believes that 2017 world series championship was totally not worth it, and they would have been better winning 70 games a year and not winning that title.

I do love me a good greg take.  It's like watching Undisputed for Sox fans without cable.

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12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

It coulda been worse, like the Astros. Greg, of course, believes that 2017 world series championship was totally not worth it, and they would have been better winning 70 games a year and not winning that title.

Several of you could be the architects of a rebuild in the tank era. We had a couple superstar pieces we could deal in Sale and Q (many of you could have made similarly great trades). Meanwhile, all of us could build a team SO BAD that we get high high high draft picks for 5 years. And we look at the lists of the prospects and take a stab at picking the best available player. Meanwhile we acquire totally horseshit players to make sure we continue to get top draft picks. It's not that hard to construct a tank job rebuild. It's harder to do it the other way, have an organization of sustained excellence. Tell me you disagree that a few fans on here could not construct a rebuild this way?? We had a couple superstars to get the best possible haul for and you lose and lose and try to make the right draft picks. If you fail in that regard, who cares? You keep rebuilding as tank job/rebuilds are quite the popular rage.

Edited by greg775
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Just now, greg775 said:

Are you happy being out of the race with a week left in April?

Were you happy with the successes of the 2015 and 2016 seasons? The White Sox bet that they would be good enough those years that the additional revenue could fund their 2017 and 2018 seasons once guys like Samardzija and Frazier hit free agency. Were those teams what you wanted?

Those teams are what you are asking for right now.

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Just now, greg775 said:

Are you happy being out of the race with a week left in April?

As happy as a 2014 Astros fan.

Greg, I'm just asking you to have a little foresight.  You were the only one interested in winning 79 games with a team of 30+ year olds missing the playoffs.

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1 minute ago, greg775 said:

Are you happy being out of the race with a week left in April?

Is that a serious question?  LOL  

They were out of it before the season started.  The world series for Sox fans right now should be 4 or 5 of the players on this team being 3+ WAR players.  That to me is a successful season.  Add in seeing some more young guys come up towards the end and develop.

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5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Were you happy with the successes of the 2015 and 2016 seasons? The White Sox bet that they would be good enough those years that the additional revenue could fund their 2017 and 2018 seasons once guys like Samardzija and Frazier hit free agency. Were those teams what you wanted?

 Those teams are what you are asking for right now.

Frankly I thought after winning the WS in 05 we'd dominate the division for a long time. The division sucks and is full of teams that don't spend money (though Detroit did for a while). I thought now that we reached the top of the game we could continue through free agency and trades when needed we could pull a Braves and make the playoffs every year for a long while. It's not my fault we had one of the worst managers in baseball history to replace Oz and the moves the team made via free agency were not good. There are more ways to win divisions/titles than to play the tank game.

Edited by greg775
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3 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Frankly I thought after winning the WS in 05 we'd dominate the division for a long time. The division sucks and is full of teams that don't spend money (though Detroit did for a while). I thought now that we reached the top of the game we could continue through free agency and trades when needed we could pull a Braves and make the playoffs every year for a long while. It's not my fault we had one of the worst managers in baseball history to replace Oz and the moves the team made via free agency were not good. There are more ways to win divisions/titles than to play the tank game.

No one is doing this anymore.  30+ year old free agents are having a hell of a time finding jobs.  Your way doesn't work anymore.

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10 minutes ago, AustinIllini said:

No one is doing this anymore.  30+ year old free agents are having a hell of a time finding jobs.  Your way doesn't work anymore.

Unless they're the Dodgers, Yankees, Redsox, Cardinals, or Rangers...Every other team has 4 or less playoff appearances in the last 10 years.

Padres and Marlins at 0, Sox at 1

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29 minutes ago, greg775 said:

Frankly I thought after winning the WS in 05 we'd dominate the division for a long time. The division sucks and is full of teams that don't spend money (though Detroit did for a while). I thought now that we reached the top of the game we could continue through free agency and trades when needed we could pull a Braves and make the playoffs every year for a long while. It's not my fault we had one of the worst managers in baseball history to replace Oz and the moves the team made via free agency were not good. There are more ways to win divisions/titles than to play the tank game.

Actually it is your fault that the Free Agency moves were not good, because it's the fault of free agency and you think that's a good idea. You think that it's possible to just "make good decisions in free agency and not bad ones". That's your major malfunction. It's not even about scouting, or coaching, it's 100% the luck of the draw. If you need to buy 3 or 4 positions in free agency, 2 or 3 of them are going to dramatically disappoint you. The only way to win in free agency is to have a good enough team that the free agent doesn't really matter if they bust, because some of them will. So, it's the fault of everyone who doesn't understand that about free agency, and anyone who thinks "we should have spent better in free agency" is a simple statement.

So, until you stop saying "We should have just made better FA decisions", I'm going to blame you for them because the org believed that they could, and that was wrong. They listened to that statement and that statement set them back by 4 years.

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