White sox could be dark horse for machado

[Dick Allen]

Some team always blows everyone else out of the water when one of these guys becomes available. ARod, Cano, Pujols. It will be interesting to see if having 2 of these guys out there might change that a bit.

[Chicago White Sox]

7 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Superstar position players that are young enough to be expected to stay stars throughout your entire contention window don't show up very often. Normally, I'm a fan of signing free agents at the time that you need them, so as to minimize the risk of regression and injury -- but sometimes market forces incentivize teams to consider different types of risks.

I'm in favor of signing Machado (or Harper) because this is when he's available. You can't get him when you'd rather have him. Yeah, it's too soon for this team to sign short term assets, but it's never too soon to add long-term assets.

Also, RE: Harper vs. Machado -- our minor league system depth chart should literally no bearing on which one we choose. Unless the guy being signed blocks a currently contributing MLB player, thus reducing the effectiveness of the addition, you can't worry about it. Most of these guys will bust, and even if they don't, and you DO create a logjam, you can trade the prospect for something you need more. 

Great post & 100% agree.  I’d happily take either guy and hope the Sox feel the same.  These are the two guys we should be focused on them.  Miss on them, Arenado becomes a solid fallback option the following year.

[Balta1701]

28 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

Superstar position players that are young enough to be expected to stay stars throughout your entire contention window don't show up very often. Normally, I'm a fan of signing free agents at the time that you need them, so as to minimize the risk of regression and injury -- but sometimes market forces incentivize teams to consider different types of risks.

I'm in favor of signing Machado (or Harper) because this is when he's available. You can't get him when you'd rather have him. Yeah, it's too soon for this team to sign short term assets, but it's never too soon to add long-term assets.

Also, RE: Harper vs. Machado -- our minor league system depth chart should literally no bearing on which one we choose. Unless the guy being signed blocks a currently contributing MLB player, thus reducing the effectiveness of the addition, you can't worry about it. Most of these guys will bust, and even if they don't, and you DO create a logjam, you can trade the prospect for something you need more. 

So....if we get 3 WAR seasons out of Anderson and Sanchez on that side of the infield, and Machado insists he's going to be a SS, is that enough contributions from a current MLB player that you would look away from that position? 

Alternatively, if Garcia comes back and plays corner OF like he did last season, and is a 4 WAR player, and Jiminez comes up and murders 3 pitchers in his first week, leaving bloody corpses with their heads bitten off scattered around the infield, is that enough that you would look away from that position?

Cause I'm a little unsure on some of these myself. I'm not blocking Jiminez at all, so if I was intending to keep Garcia, then I'd look away from Harper, but the current Garcia is not nearly playing up to the level where I'd care. I'm not sure what I'd do if both Sanchez and Anderson wind up with decent seasons; clearly Machado is substantially better, but if you have 2 guys who are both good and cheap, maybe you default to good and cheap.

[Jose Abreu]

29 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Some team always blows everyone else out of the water when one of these guys becomes available. ARod, Cano, Pujols. It will be interesting to see if having 2 of these guys out there might change that a bit.

That's true. I really believe that we will be that team for Machado (he may not accept, but I think we'll offer him the most money).

[Chicago White Sox]

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

So....if we get 3 WAR seasons out of Anderson and Sanchez on that side of the infield, and Machado insists he's going to be a SS, is that enough contributions from a current MLB player that you would look away from that position? 

Alternatively, if Garcia comes back and plays corner OF like he did last season, and is a 4 WAR player, and Jiminez comes up and murders 3 pitchers in his first week, leaving bloody corpses with their heads bitten off scattered around the infield, is that enough that you would look away from that position?

 Cause I'm a little unsure on some of these myself. I'm not blocking Jiminez at all, so if I was intending to keep Garcia, then I'd look away from Harper, but the current Garcia is not nearly playing up to the level where I'd care. I'm not sure what I'd do if both Sanchez and Anderson wind up with decent seasons; clearly Machado is substantially better, but if you have 2 guys who are both good and cheap, maybe you default to good and cheap.

Give me the superstar every day of the week and I'll move the "good & cheap" option to fill other holes or add prospect depth.  There are only so many spots on a roster and you should always look to maximize the output of those, especially when you're sitting on millions and millions of dollars.  Plus baseball is slowly moving towards super-teams and we're going to need load up on talent if want to take on the Yankees a few years from now.

And Avi Garcia is not a 4 WAR player, so he certainly shouldn't prevent us from adding Bryce Harper.  We'd be nuts to pass on a potential OF of Jimenez, Robert, & Harper, even if that means trading our minor league depth (Rutherford, Basabe, Adolfo, etc.).  

[Balta1701]

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Give me the superstar every day of the week and I'll move the "good & cheap" option to fill other holes or add prospect depth.  There are only so many spots on a roster and you should always look to maximize the output of those, especially when you're sitting on millions and millions of dollars.  Plus baseball is slowly moving towards super-teams and we're going to need load up on talent if want to take on the Yankees a few years from now.

And Avi Garcia is not a 4 WAR player, so he certainly shouldn't prevent us from adding Bryce Harper.  We'd be nuts to pass on a potential OF of Jimenez, Robert, & Harper, even if that means trading our minor league depth (Rutherford, Basabe, Adolfo, etc.).  

Avi Garcia was a 4.2 WAR player last year. So far he's making that look like a fluke, but he was legitimately that guy last year.

If we were somehow happy with Garcia and Sanchez and Anderson, then the money could go to loading up on the relievers (Kimbrel would make that bullpen look an awful lot better).

[Chicago White Sox]

Just now, Balta1701 said:

Avi Garcia was a 4.2 WAR player last year. So far he's making that look like a fluke, but he was legitimately that guy last year.

If we were somehow happy with Garcia and Sanchez and Anderson, then the money could go to loading up on the relievers (Kimbrel would make that bullpen look an awful lot better).

Last year was a fluke though.  Avi improved in several areas, but the BABIP was always going to regress and bring him down to a 2.5 WARish player.  The problem for Avi is he needs to get more loft on the ball to take advantage of his raw power and unfortunately he continues to drive the ball into the ground.  Without that power improvement, his days of being a 4 WAR player are over.  And given our minor league depth, there is absolutely no reason to spend money locking up a 2.5 WAR player.

Also, I can't understate how much money we're going to have in the coming years.  It seems like many here think we'll add one stud reliever and blow all our money.  We should be able to multiple impact free agents when the time is right and that's including a Machado/Harper tier superstar.

[Jose Abreu]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

 Also, I can't understate how much money we're going to have in the coming years.  It seems like many here think we'll add one stud reliever and blow all our money.  We should be able to multiple impact free agents when the time is right and that's including a Machado/Harper tier superstar.

You could literally add Harper (let's say 40 mil) and Machado (30 mil) to next year's payroll, plus arbitration guys, and we likely would still be outside of the top 8 in payrolls. It definitely won't happen, but it speaks to the flexibility. 

[Balta1701]

1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Last year was a fluke though.  Avi improved in several areas, but the BABIP was always going to regress and bring him down to a 2.5 WARish player.  The problem for Avi is he needs to get more loft on the ball to take advantage of his raw power and unfortunately he continues to drive the ball into the ground.  Without that power improvement, his days of being a 4 WAR player are over.  And given our minor league depth, there is absolutely no reason to spend money locking up a 2.5 WAR player.

 Also, I can't understate how much money we're going to have in the coming years.  It seems like many here think we'll add one stud reliever and blow all our money.  We should be able to multiple impact free agents when the time is right and that's including a Machado/Harper tier superstar.

Ok, so right now, given the choice, Machado at $350 or Harper at $425, which do you prefer? Feel free to say that you think my number guesses are off.

[TheTruth05]

5 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, so right now, given the choice, Machado at $350 or Harper at $425, which do you prefer? Feel free to say that you think my number guesses are off.

I just think Harper wouldn't come here unless we blow his market out the water. He's one,if not THE, face of baseball and will definitely want to play on one of the big teams in the league (Yanks,Dodgers,Cubs).

Machado on the other hand will just want the most money, imo, and the Sox can definitely achieve that.

[Sleepy Harold]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

Bruce Levine is actually a reporter.  Kaplan is a tv personality.  They really shouldn't be treated as equals when talking about actual reporting.  Kaplan is worth about as much as a Sean Hannity is to news reporting.

Ok that's what I thought. I always took him as more of an "open mouth, say things" type  (to steal that line from Matt Spiegel).

[southsider2k5]

Just now, TheTruth05 said:

I just think Harper wouldn't come here unless we blow his market out the water. He's one,if not THE, face of baseball and will definitely want to play on one of the big teams in the league (Yanks,Dodgers,Cubs).

Machado on the other hand will just want the most money, imo, and the Sox can definitely achieve that.

I think every single aspect about Bryce Harper has been framed around money.  I have no doubt at all that he wants the biggest contract possible, period.

[TheTruth05]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

I think every single aspect about Bryce Harper has been framed around money.  I have no doubt at all that he wants the biggest contract possible, period.

And if the Yanks,Dodgers,Cubs have Bryce as a priority then Sox chances are slim to none.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Sleepy Harold said:

Ok that's what I thought. I always took him as more of an "open mouth, say things" type  (to steal that line from Matt Spiegel).

That is exactly how I see Kaplan as well.

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, so right now, given the choice, Machado at $350 or Harper at $425, which do you prefer? Feel free to say that you think my number guesses are off.

At your number, Harper. I honestly don't think that Machado is worth $350, his defense will get worse as he ages, a great deal of his WAR value comes from that and his OBP even in his best years wasn't that great. The most I'd go for Machado is the 2nd A-Rod deal: 10/$275. Anything more and I'm moving to Harper. Machado is good, but Harper is a better player AINEC. 

Edited April 24, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[southsider2k5]

Just now, TheTruth05 said:

And if the Yanks,Dodgers,Cubs have Bryce as a priority then Sox chances are slim to none.

Probably.  I personally think the chances of us signing an absolute top guy are way over blown here.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

At your number, Harper. I honestly don't think that Machado is worth $350, his defense will get worse as he ages, a great deal of his WAR value comes from that and his OBP even in his best years wasn't that great. The most I'd go for Machado is the 2nd A-Rod deal: 10/$275. Anything more and I'm moving to Harper. Machado is good, but Harper is a better player AINEC. 

I'd be surprised if Machado is that low, especially with how he has started this season, so rock and roll on BH.

[Chicago White Sox]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Ok, so right now, given the choice, Machado at $350 or Harper at $425, which do you prefer? Feel free to say that you think my number guesses are off.

I think your numbers are spot-on, just tough to say who’d I prefer.  I think Harper would be more impactful from a marketing perspective and build some hype for the organization.  He also has the higher ceiling and is most certaintly the better player when everyone is clicking.  I’d probably go with Harper, especially if Machado won’t budge off the need to play SS.

[Bob Sacamano]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Probably.  I personally think the chances of us signing an absolute top guy are way over blown here.

Fully agree with this take.

[TheBlackSox8]

Arenado would still be availabe as a FA right?  A consolation prize perhaps.

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, TheBlackSox8 said:

Arenado would still be availabe as a FA right?  A consolation prize perhaps.

But not a FA until after 2019.

[Jack Parkman]

11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

I'd be surprised if Machado is that low, especially with how he has started this season, so rock and roll on BH.

 

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I think your numbers are spot-on, just tough to say who’d I prefer.  I think Harper would be more impactful from a marketing perspective and build some hype for the organization.  He also has the higher ceiling and is most certaintly the better player when everyone is clicking.  I’d probably go with Harper, especially if Machado won’t budge off the need to play SS.

I think your numbers are spot on too, and I think Machado will sign for more than that as well. If it were my money I'd be uncomfortable going over $300. I'd have no hesitation giving Harper $425 as an AL team. If I'm the Sox I'm not wasting time on Machado unless Harper says right away he's not interested. Also, if they're not getting either of them, they might as well sit out and go for another year of development with the guys we have, and try to snag Arenado in 2019-2020 offseason. 

Edited April 24, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Jose Abreu]

12 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Probably.  I personally think the chances of us signing an absolute top guy are way over blown here.

That's funny, I see it the other way around. I think people believe we have virtually no chance, when I think we will at least be up there in terms of money offered 

[TheTruth05]

Does anybody know what other marquee guys would be available in that Arenado 2019 FA class?

[Bob Sacamano]

6 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

That's funny, I see it the other way around. I think people believe we have virtually no chance, when I think we will at least be up there in terms of money offered 

Really? Reading this message board over the last year + seems be more positive than negative on our chances overall.

The general consensus here has been Machado is our 3B next year.

Edited April 24, 2018 by soxfan2014