White sox could be dark horse for machado

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

Does anybody know what other marquee guys would be available in that Arenado 2019 FA class?

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2020/

Here ya go. Big names are Arenado, Sale, Goldschmidt, MadBum

Edited April 24, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Balta1701]

8 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

Does anybody know what other marquee guys would be available in that Arenado 2019 FA class?

Some lefthander for Boston named Chris (didn't he have a jersey problem at one point?)
Paul Goldschmidt
Madison Bumgarner
Nolan Arenado
Anthony Rendon
Cole Hamels
Sonny Gray
Dellin Betances
Justin Smoak
Xander Bogerts
Jake Odorizzi
Jose Abreu

At least as of now, looks particularly good year for starting pitching availability.

[Jose Abreu]

2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Really? Reading this message board over the last year + seems be more positive than negative on our chances overall.

The general consensus here has been Machado is our 3B next year.

I guess I may be displaying recency bias, because with the way this team has played, I've seen posters just giving up on the Machado dream on the basis that he wouldn't want to come here. 

 

All I know is that I trust us to at least be competitive with our offer. None of that 3 year max BS we saw with Cespedes. 

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

Really? Reading this message board over the last year + seems be more positive than negative on our chances overall.

The general consensus here has been Machado is our 3B next year.

We should be up there with a competitive offer, perhaps for both of them. They put themselves in a position where making that type of offer is the right move for the franchise. However, this franchise may just flat out be too scared to make the offer even if it's the right move for them.

[TheTruth05]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2020/

Here ya go. Big names are Arenado, Sale, Goldschmidt

 

2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Some lefthander for Boston named Chris (didn't he have a jersey problem at one point?)
Paul Goldschmidt
Madison Bumgarner
Anthony Rendon
Cole Hamels
Sonny Gray
Dellin Betances
Justin Smoak
Xander Bogerts
Jake Odorizzi
Jose Abreu

At least as of now, looks particularly good year for starting pitching availability.

Thank you.Bogarts and Goldschmidt makes this class interesting  assuming they don't sign extensions.

Edited April 24, 2018 by TheTruth05

[Eminor3rd]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

So....if we get 3 WAR seasons out of Anderson and Sanchez on that side of the infield, and Machado insists he's going to be a SS, is that enough contributions from a current MLB player that you would look away from that position? 

Alternatively, if Garcia comes back and plays corner OF like he did last season, and is a 4 WAR player, and Jiminez comes up and murders 3 pitchers in his first week, leaving bloody corpses with their heads bitten off scattered around the infield, is that enough that you would look away from that position?

Cause I'm a little unsure on some of these myself. I'm not blocking Jiminez at all, so if I was intending to keep Garcia, then I'd look away from Harper, but the current Garcia is not nearly playing up to the level where I'd care. I'm not sure what I'd do if both Sanchez and Anderson wind up with decent seasons; clearly Machado is substantially better, but if you have 2 guys who are both good and cheap, maybe you default to good and cheap.

Two thoughts on your post:

First: I think we have to stop and remind ourselves why we like "good and cheap." The answer is because the more "good and cheap" pieces we have, the more resources that are available to purchase additional talent. THis means we eventually have to USE those resources for the math to work out. These cheap pieces are critical for the foundation of a successful team, but if we fail to shift our sights at some point, then we fail to capitalize on the advantage that it afforded us in the first place. We could have very efficient production all around the field, but if those guys are all 1-3 win players, we still aren't going to win any games.

Second: I think all of the scenarios you mentioned are realistic and possible, but I don't think any of them are MORE likely than the standard scenario: useful-but-mediocre players remain so, and Machado remains a star level player. 

Further, even if you do get a logjam, I don't think you've really got much of a problem at all. Because again, "good and cheap" players are valuable trade chips. It's also worth considering how much more valuable depth is in the current game than it used to be. For example, if it turns out that Anderson is a 4 win player, Machado is a 5 win player, and Sanchez is a 3 win player, you still may get a TON more value out of using Sanchez as a utility guy who can rest either player without a substantial loss in production, and who can step in a starter should either hit the disabled list. 

My point is, I don't think you ever really have to worry about having too many good players, because desired assets tend to be fungible. The only thing you have to worry about is if too many of those players end up BAD. In that scenario, with so many holes to plug, can you afford to put so many resources into filling just one?

Now, if Anderson becomes a star in the next four months and Machado INSISTS on playing SS only, that changes the calculus. But we'll know about that before we get a chance to sign him.

Edited April 24, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[ScootsMcGoots]

3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Some lefthander for Boston named Chris (didn't he have a jersey problem at one point?)
Paul Goldschmidt
Madison Bumgarner
Nolan Arenado
Anthony Rendon
Cole Hamels
Sonny Gray
Dellin Betances
Justin Smoak
Xander Bogerts
Jake Odorizzi
Jose Abreu

At least as of now, looks particularly good year for starting pitching availability.

Realistically ( I think), I would love to have Abreu as my DH and Goldschmidt at 1B. 

[Jose Abreu]

Just now, Scoots said:

Realistically ( I think), I would love to have Abreu as my DH and Goldschmidt at 1B. 

Me too but I don't think Arizona lets Goldschmidt go away. Same with Arenado in Colorado. 

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

That's funny, I see it the other way around. I think people believe we have virtually no chance, when I think we will at least be up there in terms of money offered 

Up there?  Sure.  But second place doesn't matter.

[ScootsMcGoots]

1 minute ago, Jose Abreu said:

Me too but I don't think Arizona lets Goldschmidt go away. Same with Arenado in Colorado. 

Yeah that's why I threw in the "I think" after the realistically part

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

So....if we get 3 WAR seasons out of Anderson and Sanchez on that side of the infield, and Machado insists he's going to be a SS, is that enough contributions from a current MLB player that you would look away from that position? 

Alternatively, if Garcia comes back and plays corner OF like he did last season, and is a 4 WAR player, and Jiminez comes up and murders 3 pitchers in his first week, leaving bloody corpses with their heads bitten off scattered around the infield, is that enough that you would look away from that position?

Cause I'm a little unsure on some of these myself. I'm not blocking Jiminez at all, so if I was intending to keep Garcia, then I'd look away from Harper, but the current Garcia is not nearly playing up to the level where I'd care. I'm not sure what I'd do if both Sanchez and Anderson wind up with decent seasons; clearly Machado is substantially better, but if you have 2 guys who are both good and cheap, maybe you default to good and cheap.

That's why I've been saying that the Sox will go after starting pitching also. The young starters will still be in their baseball infancy and wildly inconsistent. Need an anchor  ( Sale anyone ).

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That's why I've been saying that the Sox will go after starting pitching also. The young starters will still be in their baseball infancy and wildly inconsistent. Need an anchor  ( Sale anyone ).

Realistically for the next few years we look to have a "next" starting pitcher on the horizon.

2018 Has Giolito and Lopez here barring something crazy happening.  Fulmer is here, and probably has this season worth of rope to learn with, could be longer if he starts to show some consistency.

This season we should see Kopech very soon, call it middle to end of June.

2019 could see some combination of Hansen and Dunning.

2020 should be when we have a chance at seeing Cease, Clakin, and a few others.

This is JUST top guys,  That isn't really accounting for a breakout season from a guy like Jordan Stephens, Spencer Adams, or someone else.  It also isn't factoring in that there is a chance a Mize could fall to us at #4, or that we draft someone early this year who flies through the system.

I don't see us needing to drop major money on a starter.  Maybe a back end guy or a project guy to span a gap of months, but not a long term contributor.

[soxfan49]

2 hours ago, Rabbit said:

See the 2014-2015 offseason.

So, it's been 3 years?

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

22 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Realistically for the next few years we look to have a "next" starting pitcher on the horizon.

2018 Has Giolito and Lopez here barring something crazy happening.  Fulmer is here, and probably has this season worth of rope to learn with, could be longer if he starts to show some consistency.

This season we should see Kopech very soon, call it middle to end of June.

2019 could see some combination of Hansen and Dunning.

2020 should be when we have a chance at seeing Cease, Clakin, and a few others.

This is JUST top guys,  That isn't really accounting for a breakout season from a guy like Jordan Stephens, Spencer Adams, or someone else.  It also isn't factoring in that there is a chance a Mize could fall to us at #4, or that we draft someone early this year who flies through the system.

I don't see us needing to drop major money on a starter.  Maybe a back end guy or a project guy to span a gap of months, but not a long term contributor.

You also don't see the Sox needing relief pitching either but every team eventually does need both and all the guys you mentioned will still be babies and some will get injured some will flop some will just not fulfill expectations. Cubs needed Lester even after lucking into Arrieta and a young Kyle Hendriks joined Lester couple years before the Cubs won the World Series. Even if its 2020 or 2021 Giolito and Lopez wll have only been around a few years and Kopech Hansen or Cease etc even less if they make it at all. Weill see but I'm pretty confident that there will at least a #2 if not a number one starting pitcher needed while those other guys build innings and the careers necessary for a long playoff push. Don't want them flaming out like Sale seems to do at the end of the year.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

You also don't see the Sox needing relief pitching either but every team eventually does need both and all the guys you mentioned will still be babies and some will get injured some will flop some will just not fulfill expectations. Cubs needed Lester even after lucking into Arrieta and a young Kyle Hendriks joined Lester couple years before the Cubs won the World Series. Even if its 2020 or 2021 Giolito and Lopez wll have only been around a few years and Kopech Hansen or Cease etc even less if they make it at all. Weill see but I'm pretty confident that there will at least a #2 if not a number one starting pitcher needed while those other guys build innings and the careers necessary for a long playoff push. Don't want them flaming out like Sale seems to do at the end of the year.

Sure.  We have 10 guys listed above in the top tier guys, along with another chunk of guys for the next tier.  I absolutely know some of these guys will fail.  But even if half fail, that is still a 5 man rotation left over before you get to the next tier of guys who aren't nearly as highly regarded as of today.

The Cubs are a completely different beast as they didn't put hardly any resources into pitchers, and just bought them on the open market.  The Sox did the opposite and pushed in hard on pitchers.

I worry WAY more about the position player crop being too thin to withstand the inevitable failures that are going to happen.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Sure.  We have 10 guys listed above in the top tier guys, along with another chunk of guys for the next tier.  I absolutely know some of these guys will fail.  But even if half fail, that is still a 5 man rotation left over before you get to the next tier of guys who aren't nearly as highly regarded as of today.

The Cubs are a completely different beast as they didn't put hardly any resources into pitchers, and just bought them on the open market.  The Sox did the opposite and pushed in hard on pitchers.

I worry WAY more about the position player crop being too thin to withstand the inevitable failures that are going to happen.

Hey I hope you are right but I just don't see it happening like that. Even if many of those guys succeed they just will be too young and inexperienced. I have no idea how old those guys will be in the WOC ( window of contention) years but many of them will still be 25 years old or less at the start of it and we will pretty much want to be successful starting in 2020 so some won't even be up here by then. Rodon, Giolto, Lopez Kopech all with potential to be 1 's or 2's should be there in 2020 but I can practically guarantee one if not more than one will miss significant time due to injury between now and the start of 2020. Also a long way to go for any one of them to be considered as even remotely reliably successful. Just seems to be asking a lot of them by 2020.

[greg775]

 I want Sale and Madison B off that list. Forget Machado. He's staying in AL East. Only other team might have a chance is Mets.

[southsider2k5]

8 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Hey I hope you are right but I just don't see it happening like that. Even if many of those guys succeed they just will be too young and inexperienced. I have no idea how old those guys will be in the WOC ( window of contention) years but many of them will still be 25 years old or less at the start of it and we will pretty much want to be successful starting in 2020 so some won't even be up here by then. Rodon, Giolto, Lopez Kopech all with potential to be 1 's or 2's should be there in 2020 but I can practically guarantee one if not more than one will miss significant time due to injury between now and the start of 2020. Also a long way to go for any one of them to be considered as even remotely reliably successful. Just seems to be asking a lot of them by 2020.

You could say the same thing for all of the position players, and we have a LOT less depth there.  This is also the reason I have been way more conservative on how long this rebuild will take versus the people who thought we would be .500 this year and in the playoffs next year.

[caulfield12]

Josh Donaldson, haha.

Have said all along they’ll have to add one veteran starting pitcher...something between the Cubs with Lester and Royals with Shields.   So much is dependent on Rodon.  

And the certainty about Giolito being much more than a middle of the rotation guy is tumbling a bit.  Of course, Lopez looks better than Q, so that probably balances out over time as well.

That still leaves Kopech, Hansen, Cease, maybe Dunning and draft pick/s as frontline TOR guys (Dunning was always perceived to be more 3/4 or even 5, at least when we acquired him. That perception has evolved slightly.)

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You could say the same thing for all of the position players, and we have a LOT less depth there.  This is also the reason I have been way more conservative on how long this rebuild will take versus the people who thought we would be .500 this year and in the playoffs next year.

Position players just seem a lot easier to project than pitchers because of the whole arm problem thing. I'm starting to think by 2020 Moncada and Eloy wiil be special offensively. I'm projecting a little too far with Robert but also hoping he makes significant enough strides to be a rookie in 2020 . Add an Areando Machado Goldsmidt Harper, Bogaerts or even Rendon and that lineup could have 3 or 4 superstars in it, Not just good but great offensive players,

[greg775]

14 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

Josh Donaldson, haha.

Have said all along they’ll have to add one veteran starting pitcher...something between the Cubs with Lester and Royals with Shields.   So much is dependent on Rodon.  

And the certainty about Giolito being much more than a middle of the rotation guy is tumbling a bit.  Of course, Lopez looks better than Q, so that probably balances out over time as well.

That still leaves Kopech, Hansen, Cease, maybe Dunning and draft pick/s as frontline TOR guys (Dunning was always perceived to be more 3/4 or even 5, at least when we acquired him. That perception has evolved slightly.)

Are our prospects already dropping in stature? I never saw Cease's name til this year. People were thinking he might be a possibility, now we're counting on him to be a star? I thought Fulmer and Rodon were supposed to be special. Are we already dropping them down?

[Balta1701]

29 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You could say the same thing for all of the position players, and we have a LOT less depth there.  This is also the reason I have been way more conservative on how long this rebuild will take versus the people who thought we would be .500 this year and in the playoffs next year.

I still say we have a legit shot at this being a playoff team next year. We need to make a couple good FA decisions and have 1-2 things go right in the starting rotation (no more Rodon injuries) to have a shot, but with normal development of these guys, it's not farfetched. If we're no where close, then that's because we are still doing a poor job of talent evaluation and development.

[wrathofhahn]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

I still say we have a legit shot at this being a playoff team next year. We need to make a couple good FA decisions and have 1-2 things go right in the starting rotation (no more Rodon injuries) to have a shot, but with normal development of these guys, it's not farfetched. If we're no where close, then that's because we are still doing a poor job of talent evaluation and development.

This is what I was talking about in the thread earlier sure we are way ahead of schedule due to the trades but expecting a full rebuild to happen in 2 years is beyond optimistic. It took Epstein three years and the Astros four to do theirs.

People have unrealistic expectations of how long this is going to take. It's going to take at least another two years possibly three and that is only if Hahn continues to make all the right moves and we don't have any serious setbacks.

[Chicago White Sox]

2 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

This is what I was talking about in the thread earlier sure we are way ahead of schedule due to the trades but expecting a full rebuild to happen in 2 years is beyond optimistic. It took Epstein three years and the Astros four to do theirs.

People have unrealistic expectations of how long this is going to take. It's going to take at least another two years possibly three and that is only if Hahn continues to make all the right moves and we don't have any serious setbacks.

This is a way too pessimistic view of things.  If the rebuild takes another three years on top of this one, then something went massively wrong.

[caulfield12]

If they really feel they're CLOSE to competing, then you pull the trigger on Donaldson...but I'd be leery about giving him anything beyond a 3 year deal.

That's also assuming (a big unknown right now) that Carlos Sanchez isn't a long-term solution at 3rd.  Of course, Donaldson as he ages can spend more and more time at 1B/DH, but you don't want to do that until his body forces that, because he has so much more value defensively at third.