Trust the process

[Jose Abreu]

Worth noting that Machado is actually a horrible defensive SS. Both this year and in his other MLB stints. Tim Anderson has graded out as better defensively so far. If he comes here, I think the choice is easy to make him play 3B. 

[southsider2k5]

23 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Has any team in recent memory assembled the level of pitching talent in their organization that the White Sox have?

Let's just look at what they have:

Pitchers with Ace Potential

Carlos Rodon

Michael Kopech

Reynaldo Lopez

Lucas Giolito

Alec Hansen 

Dylan Cease

 

Pitchers with #2/#3 Potential

Dane Dunning

Ian Clarkin

Spencer Adams

 

Pitchers with Backend Starter Potential

Carson Fulmer

Ricardo Pinto

Jordan Stephens

Jordan Guerrero

A.J. Puckett

Lincoln Henzman

Kade McClure

 

Pitchers with Relief Potential

Nate Jones (HL)

Aaron Bummer

Jace Fry

Zack Burdi (HL)

Thyago Vieira (HL)

Brian Clark

Ian Hamilton (HL)

Ryan Burr

Victor Diaz

Danny Dopico

Tyler Johnson (HL)

Kevin Escorcia

Matt Foster

J.B. Olson

 

I'm certain I've forgotten some here, but basically the ideal is that at least 3 from category 1 live up to billing, at least 1 from category 2 lives up to billing, and at least 1 from category 3 lives up to billing. Also, all the pitchers that fail as starters become relief options, so you're looking at about 16 pitchers to fill 5 starting slots and 25 pitchers to fill 7 relief spots (the 11 in the starter categories that don't pan out as starters plus the 14 listed relief names. If ever a team was capable of fully stocking its pitching staff from within, it's this team.

This is how I see thing.  This ISN'T even looking at guys no one is talking about surprising us, or small trades, MiLB signings etc turning into the next Jose Quintana or Tommy Kahnle.

 

Yes on the surface it sounds farfetched, but when you go name by name, it looks pretty good to me. Even when you plan for failures, there are just so many QUALITY names.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

If the Sox really do have to go outside of the organization in a few years for pitching options other than back end filler, we are in big trouble.

Why would you say that? The last two WS champs went outside their organization to pick up high end starters and relievers in order to win it all. In fact they still are based on their big splashes last offseason (HOU - Cole, CHC - Darvish).

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

Has any team in recent memory assembled the level of pitching talent in their organization that the White Sox have?

Let's just look at what they have:

Pitchers with Ace Potential

Carlos Rodon

Michael Kopech

Reynaldo Lopez

Lucas Giolito

Alec Hansen 

Dylan Cease

 

Pitchers with #2/#3 Potential

Dane Dunning

Ian Clarkin

Spencer Adams

 

Pitchers with Backend Starter Potential

Carson Fulmer

Ricardo Pinto

Jordan Stephens

Jordan Guerrero

A.J. Puckett

Lincoln Henzman

Kade McClure

 

Pitchers with Relief Potential

Nate Jones (HL)

Aaron Bummer

Jace Fry

Zack Burdi (HL)

Thyago Vieira (HL)

Brian Clark

Ian Hamilton (HL)

Ryan Burr

Victor Diaz

Danny Dopico

Tyler Johnson (HL)

Kevin Escorcia

Matt Foster

J.B. Olson

 

I'm certain I've forgotten some here, but basically the ideal is that at least 3 from category 1 live up to billing, at least 1 from category 2 lives up to billing, and at least 1 from category 3 lives up to billing. Also, all the pitchers that fail as starters become relief options, so you're looking at about 16 pitchers to fill 5 starting slots and 25 pitchers to fill 7 relief spots (the 11 in the starter categories that don't pan out as starters plus the 14 listed relief names. If ever a team was capable of fully stocking its pitching staff from within, it's this team.

Potential doesn't necessarily equate to success. There is still a lot of risk associated with pitching prospects. I'm guessing Mets fans could have compiled a similar list a few years ago equally impressive to what you have listed above.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/01/mlb-best-and-worst-starting-rotations-staff-mets-cubs-dodgers-nationals-mlb

I'm sure Braves fans could compile a similar list now. 

Many continue to say that this team's biggest need in the future is on the position player side but as I pointed out in a different thread the infield (minus catcher) is actually a huge asset already and for the foreseeable future. Abreu, Moncada, Anderson, and Sanchez all rate is above average regulars already. I'm assuming Abreu will be extended and hold down 1B/DH for the next 5 years. Catcher is a big question mark right now. Hopefully one of Zalvala or Collins will be serviceable but they still need an above average defensive catcher in my opinion (hopefully one that can hit his weight too).

The pitching staff as a whole is a mess right now. Out of the 6 names you mention with ace potential, I'd be happy if two slotted in as quality starters within the next year and for the next 5-6 years of the primary contention window. I think Rodon is trade bait as soon as he proves he's healthy. Then with the rest of the guys listed in #2/3 potential and below, you hope 1 or 2 turn into quality starters. I'd be really happy with that if they were able to fill in majority (3 or 4 slots) of the rotation with internal options. I still think you need that proven veteran though. Can never have enough quality starting pitching and relying on a bunch of young guys alone seems like a recipe for disappointment. Personally, I really like Dallas Keuchel. Should be able to get another 4-5 good years out of him before he falls off (in Cubs' terms, he'd be our Jon Lester). I view the bullpen similarly. Outside of Nate Jones, I'm not sure any of those guys on the current MLB roster will still be on the roster in 2020.

[southsider2k5]

28 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Why would you say that? The last two WS champs went outside their organization to pick up high end starters and relievers in order to win it all. In fact they still are based on their big splashes last offseason (HOU - Cole, CHC - Darvish).

Because our entire rebuild centered around pitching.  We KNOW we are already going to have holes offensively.  If we need front line position players AND front line pitchers, we are in a world of hurt.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

To be fair, can you name a question that has approached radical rebuilding through a pitching first approach like the Sox have?  I sure can't recall one.

The Mets a few years back and the Braves more recently. For reference, take a look at that Mets starting staff right now. It was the toast of the town after their WS appearance in 2015. Bunch of young flamethrowers in their low 20's under team control for years! Well, deGrom and Noah have had their share of injuries since and when healthy have been excellent; however, what happened to the rest of that staff?  I would say Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler have been rather disappointing the last couple years.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

The Mets a few years back and the Braves more recently. For reference, take a look at that Mets starting staff right now. It was the toast of the town after their WS appearance in 2015. Bunch of young flamethrowers in their low 20's under team control for years! Well, deGrom and Noah have had their share of injuries since and when healthy have been excellent; however, what happened to the rest of that staff?  I would say Harvey, Matz, and Wheeler have been rather disappointing the last couple years.

And while they had some guys, I still don't think any of them had nearly the depth we did.  The fact I am seeing a few names, and not 10 is kind of my point.

If our rotation largely fails, this rebuild is screwed.  We are looking at the mid-2020's before contention if we don't have a ton of success with our pitching.  This franchise has already demonstrated it does not have the financial ability to overspend multiple scouting mistakes.

 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Because our entire rebuild centered around pitching.  We KNOW we are already going to have holes offensively.  If we need front line position players AND front line pitchers, we are in a world of hurt.

How do you define "front line." You can get Kuechel AND Kimbrel for the price of one Machado. And to me, those are bigger needs with the way Anderson, Sanchez, and Moncada are playing. I'm advocating for guys like Mosustakas and Pollock to fill out the position player holes. Those guys are in the $8-15MM AAV range most likely. I truly believe they need to spread their resources across multiple players. I look at the Astros as the example to follow for the WS.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

And while they had some guys, I still don't think any of them had nearly the depth we did.  The fact I am seeing a few names, and not 10 is kind of my point.

If our rotation largely fails, this rebuild is screwed.  We are looking at the mid-2020's before contention if we don't have a ton of success with our pitching.  This franchise has already demonstrated it does not have the financial ability to overspend multiple scouting mistakes.

 

Well, I'm looking at this prospect list from 2014 and 11 of their top 20 prospects were pitchers. Oh yea, and Michael Fulmer was #20 while Jeurys Familia was listed in "others." So I'd say they had plenty of young pitching depth....

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/1/13/5303318/new-york-mets-top-20-prospects-for-2014

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

Well, I'm looking at this prospect list from 2014 and 11 of their top 20 prospects were pitchers. Oh yea, and Michael Fulmer was #20 while Jeurys Familia was listed in "others." So I'd say they had plenty of young pitching depth....

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/1/13/5303318/new-york-mets-top-20-prospects-for-2014

If that is really the case, we are fucked.  That is just depressing.

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

How do you define "front line." You can get Kuechel AND Kimbrel for the price of one Machado. And to me, those are bigger needs with the way Anderson, Sanchez, and Moncada are playing. I'm advocating for guys like Mosustakas and Pollock to fill out the position player holes. Those guys are in the $8-15MM AAV range most likely. I truly believe they need to spread their resources across multiple players. I look at the Astros as the example to follow for the WS.

You are building the same team we had for a decade that did nothing.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

You are building the same team we had for a decade that did nothing.

How so? When was the last time the WS signed free agents of the caliber of guys like Keuchel, Pollock, and Kimbrel? These guys might be considered "second-tier" to the Harpers and Machados of the world but in most free agent classes these are top 5 guys in their class.

[Dick Allen]

The next team that has too much pitching will be the first. It's great the White Sox have a ton of decent pitching prospects, but a lot of those guys will either get hurt or suck. Chances are they will need to add both pitching and position players. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

2 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

The next team that has too much pitching will be the first. It's great the White Sox have a ton of decent pitching prospects, but a lot of those guys will either get hurt or suck. Chances are they will need to add both pitching and position players. 

Without a doubt. And that’s ok. On its own, it does not mean the rebuild is a “failure”.

[southsider2k5]

11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Why do you say this ? Don't most us think the Sox will attempt to buy some free agents anyway ? They won't all be position players .

Every need the team has makes it that much harder to get this team to the playoffs.  If we are already talking about multiple position player signings AND now pitcher signings, we are rapidly going to burn through all of that "flexibility" we had, and it will shorten the window we have at contention.  It will start to look a lot more like the Royals who made it and flamed out in a few years.  There will be no "sustained" winning if we have to depend on the free agent market that much.

[Balta1701]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

Every need the team has makes it that much harder to get this team to the playoffs.  If we are already talking about multiple position player signings AND now pitcher signings, we are rapidly going to burn through all of that "flexibility" we had, and it will shorten the window we have at contention.  It will start to look a lot more like the Royals who made it and flamed out in a few years.  There will be no "sustained" winning if we have to depend on the free agent market that much.

F*** that the Royals won the world series do that first and then worry about how to clean up afterwards.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

F*** that the Royals won the world series do that first and then worry about how to clean up afterwards.

Did I enter an alternate dimension where people are giving ownership slack for everything after 2005?

[Balta1701]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Did I enter an alternate dimension where people are giving ownership slack for everything after 2005?

Don't mean it's the wrong concept.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

How so? When was the last time the WS signed free agents of the caliber of guys like Keuchel, Pollock, and Kimbrel? These guys might be considered "second-tier" to the Harpers and Machados of the world but in most free agent classes these are top 5 guys in their class.

We are on the exact same page with our views. The guys in the minors there's just way too much trust in them . There's just way too much that can go wrong plus they will be extremely young still and building up innings even if they turn out to be good. Some of those guys won't even sniff the majors let alone become stars which is what we will need . Starting All star quality pitchers and relievers and they just don't come along a lot and especially all at the same time like over a 3 or 4 year period.

 

We are even in agreement on Moustakas, he was a bargain and so far he's performing admirably though it's a long long season. Also in the lineup there will be nothing wrong with having a couple 1-2 WAR guys if you also have some  3-8 WAR guys . That's plenty of offense as long as not too much of the WAR is given for defense.

[chitownsportsfan]

I'm trusting the process because I'm sick and tired of listening to the Mariner's flagship station here in Seattle talk up the Mariners after they won 2/3 against the Sox --  and outscored 13-9 in the series.

It will be nice to be good.

[southsider2k5]

1 minute ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I'm trusting the process because I'm sick and tired of listening to the Mariner's flagship station here in Seattle talk up the Mariners after they won 2/3 against the Sox --  and outscored 13-9 in the series.

It will be nice to be good.

At this point, there really isn't too much else that can be done.  Today we are at the start of the second season of this process.  While we are off to a good start, it is just that...  a start.  We still need a lot more talent into the system, and we need more guys to emerge.  We still have miles to go.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Every need the team has makes it that much harder to get this team to the playoffs.  If we are already talking about multiple position player signings AND now pitcher signings, we are rapidly going to burn through all of that "flexibility" we had, and it will shorten the window we have at contention.  It will start to look a lot more like the Royals who made it and flamed out in a few years.  There will be no "sustained" winning if we have to depend on the free agent market that much.

I wanted to delete that post because you had already answered it with JGB But yea I will take 2 WS appearances in a row .Thats sustained success in the White Sox world .

[Soxfest]

2018 is going to be a long year, I hope we do not call up and waste MLB service time this year. Let these guys get mature this year in minors.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 hours ago, Jose Abreu said:

Worth noting that Machado is actually a horrible defensive SS. Both this year and in his other MLB stints. Tim Anderson has graded out as better defensively so far. If he comes here, I think the choice is easy to make him play 3B. 

Unfortunately in order to sign him I seriously doubt you can MAKE him do anything.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Unfortunately in order to sign him I seriously doubt you can MAKE him do anything.

It will be interesting to see if he is willing to sacrifice money to stay at SS.  If someone offers an extra $10 million to go back to 3rd, does he do it?  What about $20?  I wonder what that point is.