Trust the process

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

If that is really the case, we are fucked.  That is just depressing.

That's what I've been trying to tell you all along . Injuries and flame out are going to take their toll on a lot of those arms and like the Mets we may trade away a guy who ends up like Michael Fulmer.

[chitownsportsfan]

2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

At this point, there really isn't too much else that can be done.  Today we are at the start of the second season of this process.  While we are off to a good start, it is just that...  a start.  We still need a lot more talent into the system, and we need more guys to emerge.  We still have miles to go.

My biggest concern is overwhelmingly that they won't be able to make hay with any of these top draft picks.  I wasn't a huge fan of Burger and I don't trust them to not screw up the pick this year.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

That's what I've been trying to tell you all along . Injuries and flame out are going to take their toll on a lot of those arms and like the Mets we may trade away a guy who ends up like Michael Fulmer.

I know, but I really don't think it is nearly that dire.  If it is, all of this is an exercise in futility and a waste of half of a decade.

[Balta1701]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

I know, but I really don't think it is nearly that dire.  If it is, all of this is an exercise in futility and a waste of half of a decade.

The only reasonable way for this to truly be an exercise in futility should be for Rick Hahn and Rick Renteria (and co) to be really, really bad at their jobs. 

[southsider2k5]

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

My biggest concern is overwhelmingly that they won't be able to make hay with any of these top draft picks.  I wasn't a huge fan of Burger and I don't trust them to not screw up the pick this year.

That was always my biggest fear when people would ask for a rebuild.  Our draft and develop history for non-pitching is awful.  It seems to be getting better, as at least we are turning out some starters recently, but still.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I know, but I really don't think it is nearly that dire.  If it is, all of this is an exercise in futility and a waste of half of a decade.

I wouldn't call it dire though . It's just reality with pitchers. Sox are stacking them up because of that reason. The are doing the same thing with position players hoping one turns into something very useful amongst the Gillaspie's, Palka's. Willie Garcia's, Tilson's and Cordells , Delmonico's , Davidson's etc.

[Balta1701]

Just now, southsider2k5 said:

That was always my biggest fear when people would ask for a rebuild.  Our draft and develop history for non-pitching is awful.  It seems to be getting better, as at least we are turning out some starters recently, but still.

If we didn't fix that then we weren't going to be any good anyway, they sold everything they had and called up guys out of desperation to get above 75 wins in 2015 and 2016 and couldn't even get to .500 either year. Guys were going to get more expensive and there was nothing on the way to replace the holes that opened with. 

At least on paper right now we're as talent loaded as any franchise I've ever seen. So now the question is...can we deal with it properly.

[southsider2k5]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I wouldn't call it dire though . It's just reality with pitchers. Sox are stacking them up because of that reason. The are doing the same thing with position players hoping one turns into something very useful amongst the Gillaspie's, Palka's. Willie Garcia's, Tilson's and Cordells , Delmonico's , Davidson's etc.

I don't agree with that for a second.  Those are a package of 3rd tier guys.  They don't belong in the same conversation with our Tier 1 (Gio, ReyLo, Kopech, Hansen, Cease) pitchers or even the tier 2 guys (Dane Dunning, Adams, Clakin, Stephens, etc).  The list you gave is a list of 4A guys who you hope turn into league average guys. 

When you look at those lists, you need three guys to hit out of your top tier, and at least one out of your second tier, and hope that you get something out of the rest.  What is left of those joins the fray for your pensmen.

When you are talking about equivalent pitchers to your list, you are talking about guys that aren't lighting up prospect lists, but are profiled more with solid tools than having + pitches, especially fastballs.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

14 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

At this point, there really isn't too much else that can be done.  Today we are at the start of the second season of this process.  While we are off to a good start, it is just that...  a start.  We still need a lot more talent into the system, and we need more guys to emerge.  We still have miles to go.

This is one thing we are in full agreement . A long way to go to separate the wheat from the chaff. I do love my cliches. We just have to hope the thresher is operating on all cylinders.

 

[Balta1701]

Just now, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

This is one thing we are in full agreement . A long way to go to separate the wheat from the chaff. I do love my cliches. We just have to hope the thresher is operating on all cylinders.

 

That was the whole point of playing the kids this season and why it was so important that we didn't sign anyone big.

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

This is one thing we are in full agreement . A long way to go to separate the wheat from the chaff. I do love my cliches. We just have to hope the thresher is operating on all cylinders.

 

That you Jason? 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

I don't agree with that for a second.  Those are a package of 3rd tier guys.  They don't belong in the same conversation with our Tier 1 (Gio, ReyLo, Kopech, Hansen, Cease) pitchers or even the tier 2 guys (Dane Dunning, Adams, Clakin, Stephens, etc).  The list you gave is a list of 4A guys who you hope turn into league average guys. 

When you look at those lists, you need three guys to hit out of your top tier, and at least one out of your second tier, and hope that you get something out of the rest.  What is left of those joins the fray for your pensmen.

When you are talking about equivalent pitchers to your list, you are talking about guys that aren't lighting up prospect lists, but are profiled more with solid tools than having + pitches, especially fastballs.

I just meant that there's going to be a lot names that come and go wasn't necessarily comparing projects to draft picks  but we are also stockpiling or trying out projects on the pitching side too, Vierga, Gomez, Rondon, Ross etc. It's just something most teams do every year hoping to find a diamond among the coal.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

I just meant that there's going to be a lot names that come and go wasn't necessarily comparing projects to draft picks  but we are also stockpiling or trying out projects on the pitching side too, Vierga, Gomez, Rondon, Ross etc. It's just something most teams do every year hoping to find a diamond among the coal.

Sure, and those next tier of guys are who I see filling out the back end for the most part.  Even if starters at the top flame out, there is a pretty fair chance that they end up in the pen.  Guys like Cease and Kopech if they aren't starters, could do some serious damage out of the pen.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

That was the whole point of playing the kids this season and why it was so important that we didn't sign anyone big.

Ha back to disagreeing. Moustakas and some of those guys the Twins picked up weren't big signings. actually ended up being cheap or in the case of Lance Lynn a reasonable one year signing that can be flipped if necessary. Hell Moustakas could be flipped too. Even the veteran relievers the Twins picked up were pretty cheap 1 yr deals except for Addison Reed and he was only 2 years. Even if you think signing a few of those guys hurts our PT to the kids at least we couldve flipped some to get more kids anyway. Chances are all the relievers we picked up are pretty worthless and I'd only give Davidson a slim chance at being around for any playoff teams and Sanchez a decent shot, maybe 50/50, of being the super sub on a contender but not  much better than that.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

15 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

That you Jason? 

 Ha I actually had to look up what machine is used to separate wheat from chaff  in order to compare the Sox management/development team to the thresher.

[Lillian]

If the Sox need to sign a top of the rotation starter, in order to be competitive, when the window opens, I agree that the rebuild will have failed. They only need 3 or 4 starters to be #2 caliber arms, in order to have a solid rotation. If they also have an Ace and, or a really good 5TH starter, that would be a bonus. Out of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Hansen, Dunning and Fulmer, plus Stevens, Adams, Clarkin and whomever they draft this June, they better end up with at least 3 number #2 starters and 1 or 2 bottom of the rotation arms. Even if the last couple spots turn out to be weak, filling out the rotation, at the 4TH and 5TH spots is not that expensive. 

Then there is the question of Rodon and whether he is traded for a promising young arm, or resigned to be part of the contending rotation. As so many have pointed out, we do have a good track record of developing pitching and this is the best crop of young arms, that this team has assembled, in a long time.

[Lillian]

Regarding Moustakas: I wonder how much the Sox would have to give up, at the trade deadline, to acquire him and then extend him. That would avoid having to give up a  draft pick, which is likely to be a pretty high one. That strategy, could turn out to be better than signing him, this last off season. The Sox would have saved the contract's first year salary, when they weren't competing, while also eliminating the need to give up a draft pick. Of course, this scenario assumes that the Royals will not be in the race.

If the pitching develops quickly, it could make sense, as the team might be ready to compete next year, with a couple of free agent acquisitions. Insert Eloy and Moustakas in this lineup and the offense could be good enough to compete next year. Again, it all depends upon how fast the pitchers develop. A rotation of Rodon, Giolito, Lopez and Kopech (There are your four #2's or better), plus whoever takes the 5TH spot, could very well be ready next year. 

Edited April 26, 2018 by Lillian

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Lillian said:

If the Sox need to sign a top of the rotation starter, in order to be competitive, when the window opens, I agree that the rebuild will have failed. They only need 3 or 4 starters to be #2 caliber arms, in order to have a solid rotation. If they also have an Ace and, or a really good 5TH starter, that would be a bonus. Out of Giolito, Lopez, Kopech, Cease, Hansen, Dunning and Fulmer, plus Stevens, Adams, Clarkin and whomever they draft this June, they better end up with at least 3 number #2 starters and 1 or 2 bottom of the rotation arms. Even if the last couple spots turn out to be weak, filling out the rotation, at the 4TH and 5TH spots is not that expensive. 

Then there is the question of Rodon and whether he is traded for a promising young arm, or resigned to be part of the contending rotation. As so many have pointed out, we do have a good track record of developing pitching and this is the best crop of young arms, that this team has assembled, in a long time.

Ok but you do realize how very very young some of these guys are going to be , They aren't going to start their 1st few years in the bigs being  1's or 2's . Hopefully some end up that way but look how people are panicky about Gio already and it was in the spring people were panicky about Lopez . Give them time or in your case Lilian please don't expect too much too soon. If the Sox truly want to compete in 2020 and they don't just as with hitters some become studs a little later than expected.

Sandy Koufax from age 19-24 in 6 yrs did nothing great and never pitched more than 175 innings and that was the year before he became great. Give these guys some rope . There's nothing wrong with getting another quality starter and labeling the rebuild a failure if it takes longer than expected or we buy a SP . I think you might be afraid we never get that LH middle of the lineup hitter if we buy some pitching

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

12 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Regarding Moustakas: I wonder how much the Sox would have to give up, at the trade deadline, to acquire him and then extend him. That would avoid having to give up a  draft pick, which is likely to be a pretty high one. That strategy, could turn out to be better than signing him, this last off season. The Sox would have saved the contract's first year salary, when they weren't competing, while also eliminating the need to give up a draft pick. Of course, this scenario assumes that the Royals will not be in the race.

If the pitching develops quickly, it could make sense, as the team might be ready to compete next year, with a couple of free agent acquisitions. Insert Eloy and Moustakas in this lineup and the offense could be good enough to compete next year. Again, it all depends upon how fast the pitchers develop. A rotation of Rodon, Giolito, Lopez and Kopech (There are your four #2's or better), plus whoever takes the 5TH spot, could very well be ready next year. 

 I am leery of any trade and try to extend deals  just as I was with the Machado rumors with that and the Samardzija rumors before that. That's just a fools errand .

Edited April 26, 2018 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[Lillian]

11 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

Ok but you do realize how very very young some of these guys are going to be , They aren't going to start their 1st few years in the bigs being  1's or 2's . Hopefully some end up that way but look how people are panicky about Gio already and it was in the spring people were panicky about Lopez . Give them time or in your case Lilian please don't expect too much too soon. If the Sox truly want to compete in 2020 and they don't just as with hitters some become studs a little later than expected.

Sandy Koufax from age 19-24 in 6 yrs did nothing great and never pitched more than 175 innings and that was the year before he became great. Give these guys some rope . There's nothing wrong with getting another quality starter and labeling the rebuild a failure if it takes longer than expected or we buy a SP . I think you might be afraid we never get that LH middle of the lineup hitter if we buy some pitching

Rodon, Giolito and Lopez will not be too young and inexperienced to be near top of the rotation quality starters, next year. I agree that Kopech being ready to step up to that level, as early as next season, is a little bit of a stretch, but he has the ability and the mental make up. It wouldn't surprise me. I think that it probably depends upon how good and consistent his change up is. I suspect that we will get some indication, later this season, when he is called up, which I expect him to be.

Edited April 26, 2018 by Lillian

[Jose Abreu]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

It will be interesting to see if he is willing to sacrifice money to stay at SS.  If someone offers an extra $10 million to go back to 3rd, does he do it?  What about $20?  I wonder what that point is.

I get where you're coming from, but I don't know why he'd want to hurt his new team. If he does want to win, he'd know that he's a huge asset defensively at 3B and a liability at SS. If he really gets his $350 mil, I can definitely see him moving back to third.

[GreenSox]

I trust the process.

I don't trust the processor.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

4 minutes ago, Lillian said:

Rodon, Giolito and Lopez will not be too young and inexperienced to be near top of the rotation quality starters, next year. I agree that Kopech being ready to step up to that level, as early as next season, is a little bit of a stretch, but he has the ability and the mental make up. It wouldn't surprise me. I think that it probably depends upon how good and consistent his change up is. I suspect that we will get some indication, later this season, when he is called up, which I expect him to be.

I think any of them being 1's or 2's by 2020 is a stretch. Why ?because all 3 of them have never been a 1 or 2 before and expecting it is kind of like expecting every young pitcher with promise or highly rated to be a TOR guy . I'm hopeful of those 3 guys we maybe get a 3 and 4  anything beyond that is wishful thinking and even a 3 and 4 might be wishful thinking too. And really that's not so bad if 2 of the 3 can be 3,4 guys. That's a decent success rate.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

8 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

I get where you're coming from, but I don't know why he'd want to hurt his new team. If he does want to win, he'd know that he's a huge asset defensively at 3B and a liability at SS. If he really gets his $350 mil, I can definitely see him moving back to third.

Maybe because returning to 3rd base will be admitting his whole thought process was more money oriented than based in any kind of reality and these guys have big ego's and who wants to admit they made a big mistake? He shouldn't need any extra money to return to 3rd base since its probably best to play his best position for him and his team. If not. he's going to come off as a big selfish moron if his D stats stay the same as you say they are. But he wouldn't be the 1st nor would he be the last to make selfish decisions.

[caulfield12]

Let's just hope the Indians finally implode due to pitching wear and tear and/or payroll concerns for a small market team.

It has already happened twice in the last 20 years that they had to essentially do total rebuilds...actually, three times.  They have Lindor, but Kipnis looks like garbage this year, they lost Santana and Encarnacion is trending downwards bigtime.  The problem is that Ramirez and Brantley (when healthy) are pretty darned good players, and they have that dominant pen (for now).  Plus they have some really interesting prospects (Mejia, catcher) in their farm system as well.

This might be the last/best chance for them to win it all, though.

Edited April 27, 2018 by caulfield12