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Zack Collins Criticism


Y2Jimmy0
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Zack Collins is an interesting dilemma of sorts. When we did our lists at FutureSox, I still had Collins at #5. I'd still have him in the top 10 if we re-did our rankings today. Collins looks very much out of sorts in the early going. He's trying to figure out his new swing while also keeping a similar approach at the plate. He was drafted to be a power/OBP guy so looking at his batting average is probably a futile way of analyzing him. We can all agree that his first 51 plate appearances in Birmingham haven't been good. He has 1 homer and he's striking out too much. His line is: .054/.294/.135. He has a BABIP of .056. For anyone that watches him play, you know that he just doesn't swing that often. He's almost too patient at times. I'm still a believer in the profile and I also think it's insane to call a guy a non-prospect after 51 PA's in any league let alone AA. I will rail against those that say he's never been successful though and focus on how bad he was last season. The facts are that he wasn't bad last year. He may not have lived up to the expectations and he definitely won't be a favorite of anyone still using batting average to determine how good a player is. 

In 2016, after being drafted, Collins posted a wOBA of .409 and a wRC+ of 151 in High A

In 2017, he reported back to Winston-Salem and "struggled". His supposed struggles consisted of 426 plate appearances with a .367 wOBA and 130 wRC+ with 17 homers. 

He also went to AA Birmingham for a small 45 plate appearance sample last year. He posted a .414 wOBA and 166 wRC+. Not too shabby. 

Collins has been an enigma and constant target of criticism for quite some time now. Development is not linear as we've seen. He was also drafted as a college player so he has less margin for error. I still think the most important factor in Collins being a productive big leaguer though is staying behind the dish. The power/OBP profile as a catcher will work out just fine. If he has to play 1B or DH though, then yes he moves closer to being not much of a prospect. It's way too early to determine any of this though. 

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Great post Jimmy.  I’ve been ragging on Collins quite a bit lately, but that has more to do with approach at the plate right now than doubting his ability.  I fully believe he can be a valuable major league contributor despite a low BA if he can stick at catcher defensively.  The key though is making sure he’s swinging enough and hitting the ball hard when he does, because it’s the mix of power & OBP that will make or break his offensive game.  From what I’ve seen this year he’s been far too selective, passing on hittable pitches and getting himself behind in counts.  When he gets behind and going into protect mode, the contact has been very weak.  While he’s obviously been unlucky, his BABIP should probably be on the low end of the spectrum.  The good news from what I can tell (and I’m no expert), but this is all approach based and can be fixed.  Way too early to write him off as the package of tools / skills are there to be a very valuable player.  He just needs to figure his shit out.

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29 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

If he can't stick at catcher he's not a prospect.  So, how's he looking there?

I disagree. I think he would be far less valuable of a prospect obviously, but there are plenty of 1B/DH types who are massive power/walk/strikeout guys. He can still be a decent major leaguer with his offensive skillset alone, it just obviously becomes magnified. 

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23 minutes ago, JoeCoolMan24 said:

I disagree. I think he would be far less valuable of a prospect obviously, but there are plenty of 1B/DH types who are massive power/walk/strikeout guys. He can still be a decent major leaguer with his offensive skillset alone, it just obviously becomes magnified. 

I can't remember who, but a prospect guy (was some national guy)  compared him favorably to Carlos Santana so it's possible his bat is that good that he can be a 1B/DH/C but I don't know man.  Obviously that would be a great outcome for his career.

Edited by chitownsportsfan
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2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I can't remember who, but a prospect guy (was some national guy)  compared him favorably to Carlos Santana so it's possible his bat is that good that he can be a 1B/DH/C but I don't know man.  Obviously that would be a great outcome for his career.

Honestly, the thing the thing that will worry me the most is if he starts making contact, but they aren't resulting in HR or hard hit balls. If he loses his ability to crush baseballs, even if the contact is not frequent, then he's just a guy who takes a lot of walks, but doesn't even have the speed to do anything with it.

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19 minutes ago, JoeCoolMan24 said:

Honestly, the thing the thing that will worry me the most is if he starts making contact, but they aren't resulting in HR or hard hit balls. If he loses his ability to crush baseballs, even if the contact is not frequent, then he's just a guy who takes a lot of walks, but doesn't even have the speed to do anything with it.

This is my concern as well.  If he's not hitting 20+ HR a year and he's not catching, he's not really a useful player.  One of those two things has to happen.

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2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

I can't remember who, but a prospect guy (was some national guy)  compared him favorably to Carlos Santana so it's possible his bat is that good that he can be a 1B/DH/C but I don't know man.  Obviously that would be a great outcome for his career.

I believe that was Kiley in one of his chats.

Edited by OmarComing25
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I wonder if the time-sharing situation with Zavala has gotten into his head at all. He did have to manage it last year for a while, but this year moreso than last they are something close to equals in terms of priority for getting reps at C.

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It is still extremely early for Collins. After tonight's 2/4 2 2B, BB effort he now has a BABIP of .107 on the season. He only has 41 ABs, and 56 PAs (14 BBs) this season. If Collins were to be around his BABIP from last season (.282 A+, .286 AA) he would have 5 more hits, his line would then be .219/.411/.341. 

Edited by Sox Fan In Husker Land
added 9th inning BB to stats
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34 minutes ago, Sox Fan In Husker Land said:

It is still extremely early for Collins. After tonight's 2/4 2 2B, BB effort he now has a BABIP of .107 on the season. He only has 41 ABs, and 56 PAs (14 BBs) this season. If Collins were to be around his BABIP from last season (.282 A+, .286 AA) he would have 5 more hits, his line would then be .219/.411/.341. 

The BABIP will normalize and he'll have a much better line. Meanwhile, they should move Zavala up.

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It's weird that he has shown fairly good patience at the plate for a minor leaguer yet hits for such a low average. You would think if he knows what pitches to take he would know what pitches to swing at. The hard part is knowing what pitches to take and he seems to have that down pretty well. They must have had him working on stuff with his swing. I have to think he eventually gets things figured out and makes it up to the majors. How good he will be ultimately is anyone's guess.

 

He might have more on his plate learning wise right now that anyone else in the system. So I'd be patient with him.

Edited by soxforlife05
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On 4/24/2018 at 6:13 PM, fathom said:

He's way more aggressive tonight.  Nice to see.

meanwhile, Zavala is legit

Yeah I don't know how well his defense projects though. Hopefully he can be at least passable defensively. Maybe he can play 3B? Worth a shot if he can't hold up defensively at catcher.

Edited by soxforlife05
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19 minutes ago, Jake said:

Welp, looks like Collins is good again

Since this thread was created, he is 4 for 8 with 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K

Same thing happened with Moncada and with Abreu whenever Ron creates his annual thread. We just need to create a criticism thread for every player that is struggling.

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4 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Same thing happened with Moncada and with Abreu whenever Ron creates his annual thread. We just need to create a criticism thread for every player that is struggling.

I don't think the Engel one worked.

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11 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

Same thing happened with Moncada and with Abreu whenever Ron creates his annual thread. We just need to create a criticism thread for every player that is struggling.

So Giolito is going to pitch a gem next start now? ;)

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