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What is up with Lucas Giolito?

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4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Could it just be the guy just sucks? I know the whole Nationals screwed up his mechanics thing, but people are too married to Keith Law thinking this guy is good. He throws 91-92 and misses his spots not by inches, but by yards. And when he does throw something over the plate, how often does he make someone look foolish? As Kat Williams would say, "not never". 

I'm believing this to be the case honestly. 

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1 hour ago, ChiSox59 said:

Gio has one option left though, no? 

Yes he does, but if he goes down it makes 2019 ST do or die for him staying with the Sox. For that reason, I don't think they're going to send him down. They really don't have a ton of time to let him grow or not. It's pretty much do or die now, tbh. And yeah, it is possible he sucks, because as DA said, he doesn't make hitters look silly when he gets it over the plate. I honestly don't think I've said "that's nasty" once while watching him pitch. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Yes he does, but if he goes down it makes 2019 ST do or die for him staying with the Sox. For that reason, I don't think they're going to send him down. They really don't have a ton of time to let him grow or not. It's pretty much do or die now, tbh. 

And if he can't figure out how to throw a strike by the end of spring training next year, A. Who will want him, and B. Who cares if the Sox lose him.

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12 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

And if he can't figure out how to throw a strike by the end of spring training next year, A. Who will want him, and B. Who cares if the Sox lose him.

Honestly if the Sox get anything from Giolito or Fulmer it is gravy. It is highly unlikely either of them are going to be major league contributors. Before people say "It's too early to write them off" consider this: If you saw their stats in the minors over the last two seasons, would you think they are a prospect? Be honest with yourselves. 

Fulmer: 

2016 minors stats 103 IP 4.63 ERA between AA/AAA and a 104/56 K/BB

2017 minors stats 126 IP 4.96 ERA in AAA  and a 96/65 K/BB

Giolito: 

(I admit he still looked like a prospect when the Sox traded for him)

2016: 115 IP 2.97 ERA between A+-AAA and a 116/44 K/BB

2017:  128 IP 4.48 ERA at AAA and a 134/59 K/BB

Whatever he had in 2016 he lost. That is all I can say. If he's hurt he needs to tell someone. 

 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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44 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Could it just be the guy just sucks? I know the whole Nationals screwed up his mechanics thing, but people are too married to Keith Law thinking this guy is good. He throws 91-92 and misses his spots not by inches, but by yards. And when he does throw something over the plate, how often does he make someone look foolish? As Kat Williams would say, "not never". 

It's becoming increasingly likely that this is the case. This is just one of those things that can happen with High School pitchers as they continue to grow. Sometimes their body doesn't continue to get better. The Giolito that was drafted was an athletic, mid to upper 90's monster with room to add good weight to his frame but just got popped with TJ. The current version is an older, filled out guy whose velocity has gone backward. 

It just is what it is.

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If Giolito were able to cut down on the number of walks significantly (and HBB), to an amount that reflected his previous two seasons, wouldn't that normalize his numbers?

He had 24 BB in 66.2 IP previously.

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5 minutes ago, Greg Hibbard said:

If Giolito were able to cut down on the number of walks significantly (and HBB), to an amount that reflected his previous two seasons, wouldn't that normalize his numbers?

He had 24 BB in 66.2 IP previously.

I mean it depends. If he's throwing straight 90 mph fastballs over the plate he'd just give up more hits.

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He's just not good, his peripherals and eye test are pointing to him just not having the stuff he once had. It happens,prospects fail. Although imagine if he was the centerpiece of the Sale trade that was rumored with the Nats. Yikes.

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30 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

How does one effectively lose 6 to 8 MPH on their fastball in a handful of years with no known injury?

This is my primary question as well.  How has he lost that much arm action?  Years 18-24 should be when a young athlete fills out his body and learns to generate more power in any athletic movement, not less.

Does he have pain and soreness that he's not disclosing?  Surely he doesn't have "poor mechanics" on every single pitch leading to constant 91-93 mph fastballs rather than even the occasional 95 or higher.

Even more puzzling is that he has zero command.  You don't have to be a lifetime baseball observer to know that when a pitcher loses velocity and command it's injury related.

He's gotta be injured, right?  Just a puzzling situation.

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29 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Giolito isn't the first pitcher to throw 97 in high school and threw 91 five years later, and he won't be the last. 

Ok sure, but WHY.  Most of those guys have shoulder injuries.  Gio has no history of shoulder problems.  He had Tommy John.  That is supposed to be almost a non-event these days, at least until a pitcher gets many years and innings on the other side.  Gio isn't even close to that wear and tear.

The easiest conclusion is an injury.  But he's not injured, at least not officially.

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40 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Giolito isn't the first pitcher to throw 97 in high school and threw 91 five years later, and he won't be the last. 

To my knowledge, he was throwing upper 90s post TJS while first in the minors and has been losing velocity each and every year.  I don’t think that is that normal.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

To my knowledge, he was throwing upper 90s post TJS while first in the minors and has been losing velocity each and every year.  I don’t think that is that normal.

I think it's pretty common. I read an article once where a scout said HS pitchers throwing 98 are throwing 88 by the time they are 28.

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11 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I think it's pretty common. I read an article once where a scout said HS pitchers throwing 98 are throwing 88 by the time they are 28.

Well that settles it.  Thanks for that helpful anecdote.

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6 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Could it just be the guy just sucks? I know the whole Nationals screwed up his mechanics thing, but people are too married to Keith Law thinking this guy is good. He throws 91-92 and misses his spots not by inches, but by yards. And when he does throw something over the plate, how often does he make someone look foolish? As Kat Williams would say, "not never". 

I've thought this myself, but he is still only 23 yrs. old. I think that's an important thing to take into consideration and a big reason why we shouldn't write him off. I still feel like there a very deep realm of possibilities for Gio because he is so young.  Look at Arrieta for example. He struggled for years in Baltimore, then one day figured it out with the Cubs at 27 (I only use him as an example because he's the most recent case I can recall). I realize their stuff, etc. isn't the same, but the fact he did turn it around is what's important. Gio is not a lost cause right now. He's struggling and looks lost at this given point in time. Can the Sox fix him? Who knows, but at least they have the ability to have patience with him and try to get his development back on track. I do think he needs to be sent down to work on some things because he is not learning anything pitching only 1 inning every other start right now.

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6 minutes ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I've thought this myself, but he is still only 23 yrs. old. I think that's an important thing to take into consideration and a big reason why we shouldn't write him off. I still feel like there a very deep realm of possibilities for Gio because he is so young.  Look at Arrieta for example. He struggled for years in Baltimore, then one day figured it out with the Cubs at 27 (I only use him as an example because he's the most recent case I can recall). I realize their stuff, etc. isn't the same, but the fact he did turn it around is what's important. Gio is not a lost cause right now. He's struggling and looks lost at this given point in time. Can the Sox fix him? Who knows, but at least they have the ability to have patience with him and try to get his development back on track. I do think he needs to be sent down to work on some things because he is not learning anything pitching only 1 inning every other start right now.

Again, Dylan Freaking Covey.

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1 hour ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I've thought this myself, but he is still only 23 yrs. old. I think that's an important thing to take into consideration and a big reason why we shouldn't write him off. I still feel like there a very deep realm of possibilities for Gio because he is so young.  Look at Arrieta for example. He struggled for years in Baltimore, then one day figured it out with the Cubs at 27 (I only use him as an example because he's the most recent case I can recall). I realize their stuff, etc. isn't the same, but the fact he did turn it around is what's important. Gio is not a lost cause right now. He's struggling and looks lost at this given point in time. Can the Sox fix him? Who knows, but at least they have the ability to have patience with him and try to get his development back on track. I do think he needs to be sent down to work on some things because he is not learning anything pitching only 1 inning every other start right now.

Perhaps. They are going to give him every possible chance, as they should, , but the Sox have released plenty of guys 23 years old or younger in their history that threw 91. He is getting an opportunity not a lot get. It’s fine that he is, but I just think it’s a very real possibility it isn’t going to get better to the point where it is at least good enough. He has had his moments. When he throws strikes consistently he generally performs well even if the advanced metrics aren’t impressive. I went to a game last year and saw him warming up snapping off unhittable curveballs. But you don’t see those in the game. Maybe it’s in his head, and he needs a sports psychologist. I am pretty sure the Sox have one on stand by. He is a huge guy. The bigger you are the harder it is to repeat your mechanics. Maybe that is the issue. My problem is it seems so far from being acceptable. It isn’t like he is just missing, or had a call or two go against him. There is very little to hang your hat on with him. Rizzo may be an ass, but he is known as a guy who doesn’t get held up in trades. Seems like he might have been right on with Gio. We will see. I think the air is out of the excitement bag.

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3 hours ago, Dick Allen said:

Perhaps. They are going to give him every possible chance, as they should, , but the Sox have released plenty of guys 23 years old or younger in their history that threw 91. He is getting an opportunity not a lot get. It’s fine that he is, but I just think it’s a very real possibility it isn’t going to get better to the point where it is at least good enough. He has had his moments. When he throws strikes consistently he generally performs well even if the advanced metrics aren’t impressive. I went to a game last year and saw him warming up snapping off unhittable curveballs. But you don’t see those in the game. Maybe it’s in his head, and he needs a sports psychologist. I am pretty sure the Sox have one on stand by. He is a huge guy. The bigger you are the harder it is to repeat your mechanics. Maybe that is the issue. My problem is it seems so far from being acceptable. It isn’t like he is just missing, or had a call or two go against him. There is very little to hang your hat on with him. Rizzo may be an ass, but he is known as a guy who doesn’t get held up in trades. Seems like he might have been right on with Gio. We will see. I think the air is out of the excitement bag.

The Sox knew they were getting a guy who needed work when they acquired Giolito. It's the reason they got 2 other great pitching prospects along with him.

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7 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Ok sure, but WHY.  Most of those guys have shoulder injuries.  Gio has no history of shoulder problems.  He had Tommy John.  That is supposed to be almost a non-event these days, at least until a pitcher gets many years and innings on the other side.  Gio isn't even close to that wear and tear.

The easiest conclusion is an injury.  But he's not injured, at least not officially.

He may just be one of those 10% who never really recovers from UCL reconstruction. We are close to 90% eventually return to previuos level of function.

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5 hours ago, CWSpalehoseCWS said:

I've thought this myself, but he is still only 23 yrs. old. I think that's an important thing to take into consideration and a big reason why we shouldn't write him off. I still feel like there a very deep realm of possibilities for Gio because he is so young.  Look at Arrieta for example. He struggled for years in Baltimore, then one day figured it out with the Cubs at 27 (I only use him as an example because he's the most recent case I can recall). I realize their stuff, etc. isn't the same, but the fact he did turn it around is what's important. Gio is not a lost cause right now. He's struggling and looks lost at this given point in time. Can the Sox fix him? Who knows, but at least they have the ability to have patience with him and try to get his development back on track. I do think he needs to be sent down to work on some things because he is not learning anything pitching only 1 inning every other start right now.

His problems still look more mechnical not talent. So its possible he figures it all out. 

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2 minutes ago, ptatc said:

His problems still look more mechnical not talent. So its possible he figures it all out. 

PTATC I respect your knowledge more than anybody on the board. So give us your assessment. Will he make it or bust? And as far as his mechanics and delivery ... do you approve? My most recent eyetest saw a guy just laying it in there like a batting practice pitcher. Please give us your thorough analysis of his mechanics, his delivery and his arm angles. And give me the same on Nate Jones. Thank u sir.

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2 minutes ago, greg775 said:

PTATC I respect your knowledge more than anybody on the board. So give us your assessment. Will he make it or bust? And as far as his mechanics and delivery ... do you approve? My most recent eyetest saw a guy just laying it in there like a batting practice pitcher. Please give us your thorough analysis of his mechanics, his delivery and his arm angles. And give me the same on Nate Jones. Thank u sir.

He only started laying it in there after he was trying toover throw it in the first inning. His mechanics are so off he really doesnt know what to do. As far as if he can fix, who knows. Its mostly mental. He is the pitcher version of Konerko where he gets in his own head too much.

If he gets comfortable and confidenr he can cruise through a game. If he has issues early he is all messed up. His bad innings are the first and second. Thats why there is hope but also why there is no definite answer. He reminds me of a older pitcher who has lost his stuff and is trying to reinvent himself.

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3 minutes ago, ptatc said:

He only started laying it in there after he was trying toover throw it in the first inning. His mechanics are so off he really doesnt know what to do. As far as if he can fix, who knows. Its mostly mental. He is the pitcher version of Konerko where he gets in his own head too much.

If he gets comfortable and confidenr he can cruise through a game. If he has issues early he is all messed up. His bad innings are the first and second. Thats why there is hope but also why there is no definite answer. He reminds me of a older pitcher who has lost his stuff and is trying to reinvent himself.

Thanks. That's an educational post IMO. Thank u

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