It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching

[Jack Parkman]

Going into the season, we all thought the Sox were loaded with pitching. Just short of 2 months into the season, it seems they may have problems filling out the rotation from within the organization. I put the guys we have in the following tiers if they stay healthy:

Most likely to be TOR starter:(#1-2)

Hansen

Most likely to be back end starter(#4-5) 

Lopez

Most likely to be high leverage reliever, but could be a TOR starter if everything goes right

Kopech 

Cease

Could be anything, from not a major leaguer to mid rotation starter

Giolito

Clarkin

Dunning

Now this is only one man's opinion, but I think the Sox have a lot of work to do with their pitching staff. I am shocked they are doing better with position players rather than pitchers so far this season. 

By my count, if healthy they only have two guys they can pencil in to the future rotation, and that isn't good enough. I wonder how they're going to build up their pitching staff going forward. 

 

[soxfan49]

Interesting that you lumped Kopech in the “top end reliever but could be TOR guy” category.

And I hope Lopez can be better than a 4-5. For me he’s a 3-4, at least I hope so.

[Jack Parkman]

4 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Interesting that you lumped Kopech in the “top end reliever but could be TOR guy” category.

And I hope Lopez can be better than a 4-5. For me he’s a 3-4, at least I hope so.

I have always thought that Kopech was a future closer since they traded for him. I've been higher on Hansen than most and lower on Kopech. I also think Lopez could be a #3 guy, but his floor is back end rotation. This is all assuming average to above health though. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[southsideirish71]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I have always thought that Kopech was a future closer since they traded for him. 

Based on what.  Conjecture? 

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, southsideirish71 said:

Based on what.  Conjecture? 

Not really, He overthrows, has command issues and has two ++ pitches. That screams closer to me. 

[southsideirish71]

Just now, Jack Parkman said:

Not really, He overthrows, has command issues and has two ++ pitches. That screams closer to me. 

 

Explain your definition of overthrowing.   Most guys who throw near 100 have command issues.  If he was commanding his pitches he would be up here dominating.  

 

[southsider2k5]

21 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Going into the season, we all thought the Sox were loaded with pitching. Just short of 2 months into the season, it seems they may have problems filling out the rotation from within the organization. I put the guys we have in the following tiers if they stay healthy:

Most likely to be TOR starter:(#1-2)

Hansen

Most likely to be back end starter(#4-5) 

Lopez

Most likely to be high leverage reliever, but could be a TOR starter if everything goes right

Kopech 

Cease

Could be anything, from not a major leaguer to mid rotation starter

Giolito

Clarkin

Dunning

Now this is only one man's opinion, but I think the Sox have a lot of work to do with their pitching staff. I am shocked they are doing better with position players rather than pitchers so far this season. 

By my count, if healthy they only have two guys they can pencil in to the future rotation, and that isn't good enough. I wonder how they're going to build up their pitching staff going forward. 

 

So everyone in the organization is going to underachieve, except for one guy.

[Jack Parkman]

5 minutes ago, southsideirish71 said:

Explain your definition of overthrowing.   Most guys who throw near 100 have command issues.  If he was commanding his pitches he would be up here dominating.  

 

He can spot his fastball better when he throws 96-98, which is plenty good enough but he tries to hit triple digits way too much. If he wants to throw 100+ all of the time he's going to be a closer, if they can get him to stick in the range stated  the sky is the limit. I'm not sure his change is a MLB pitch either. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[caulfield12]

They're not going to dare move Kopech or Cease to the bullpen unless there's NO OTHER CHOICE.

We're years away from that.

As it stands, Giolito and Fulmer are going to get loads of opportunities they probably don't deserve simply because we have nobody ready at lower levels to really push them (Kopech's not ready, Guerrero/Adams/Stephens don't profile as starters at the next level but they'll get chances the same way Danish did in the past).  At least not YET.

If anything, assuming that pitchers like Lucas and Carson are magically going to solve their control issues in the bullpen...well, MAYBE.  There's the theory they can go full bore for just one inning and limit their mix to primarily 2 or just 3 pitches, but Giolito would be a disaster in the bullpen because he can't hold on a runner to save his life, and he doesn't have the stuff (at least right now) to extricate himself out of situations with RISP via the strikeout.

As far as Lopez goes, some of his peripherals aren't the that great (too many walks, "fortunate" with balls put into play), but I also think that holding opposing hitters to an average of below .200 is pretty darned impressive and indicative of the quality of his stuff.

Finally, Fulmer has a lot of the same qualities as Addison Reed possessed...if he can harness his fastball control and get that slider across consistently, he'll be a very effective set-up guy and potentially a closer some day.   But he absolutely has to cut down his walk rate. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by caulfield12

[Jack Parkman]

8 minutes ago, Tony said:

Again, if his change was MLB ready right now, he’d be years into his ML career.

This seems like you getting a random idea in your head with no real basis, and sticking to it no matter what other evidence is presented.

You're right, but I'm not opposed to him spending the entire season in AAA and even starting next year there to see if it can be developed. The issue with Kopech is that his fastball/slider combo is good enough to get AAA hitters out as a starter by themselves, which is why he's in a weird spot. He's got to develop a third pitch and I really don't know how they're going to do it. I think Kopech is bored in AAA but he's going to get lit up like a Christmas tree if he comes to the majors right now.

I also think Dunning could be a reliever because he was at UF and had much better stuff out of the pen than he's showing as a starter. He's going to have to have pinpoint command at the MLB level to be successful throwing 90-92. He was mid-90s out of the bullpen at UF. Giolito has much better secondary stuff by all accounts, and he can't get anyone out unless he's painting corners and as Hawk used to say "throwing through a teacup" 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Sarava]

There's nothing wrong with filling a spot or two of the rotation with guys from free agency or trades. The biggest thing the Sox need to try to do is fill the top 2 spots of the rotation from within. It remains to be seen if that will come from these guys we have now.

That's why I would be cool with it if they picked a SP with the #4 selection next month. If they do take a SP, and many of these guys do blossom as we hoped, then they have an awesome tradable asset if worse comes to worse. There's no downside to possibly having too much pitching.

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, Tony said:

Kopech needs to stay in AAA and continue to develop his weapons, I totally agree with that, and it seems like the Front Office agrees. There should be no set date on when he arrives to the Bigs, that’s up to Kopech. 

There is just is NO evidence to say he projects as a bullpen pitcher right now. To say it’s too early would be a big understatement. 

I should have put that when I said "most likely to be X" I meant that as the player's floor in my opinion. I'm really super high on Hansen, probably more than most.  The issue is they have a TON of Boom/Bust guys. Fangraphs player projection system is actually super black and white on Kopech. They think he'll be either Syndergaard or a complete bust, with almost zero in between. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Lip Man 1]

"It's time to talk about the Sox young pitching..." YES! Please! Anyting to not have to talk about how bad the major league pitching is!

[turnin' two]

So, basically, your theory is that if everyone sucks, they are in trouble?  Got it. 

[Chicago White Sox]

25 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

You're right, but I'm not opposed to him spending the entire season in AAA and even starting next year there to see if it can be developed. The issue with Kopech is that his fastball/slider combo is good enough to get AAA hitters out as a starter by themselves, which is why he's in a weird spot. He's got to develop a third pitch and I really don't know how they're going to do it. I think Kopech is bored in AAA but he's going to get lit up like a Christmas tree if he comes to the majors right now.

I also think Dunning could be a reliever because he was at UF and had much better stuff out of the pen than he's showing as a starter. He's going to have to have pinpoint command at the MLB level to be successful throwing 90-92. He was mid-90s out of the bullpen at UF. Giolito has much better secondary stuff by all accounts, and he can't get anyone out unless he's painting corners and as Hawk used to say "throwing through a teacup" 

Kopech is working on his change right now and from all reports it’s coming along fine.  I have zero doubts he’ll be an effective ML starter.  The only question with him is just how good.

Where do you get the idea Dunning is throwing 90-92?  Everything I’ve read is he’s typically around 93 and he’s known for having pinpoint command.  He’s probably the second most likely guy to end up being a quality starter in our system after Kopech.

And I have no idea how you could watch Lopez this year and see a 4 or 5 starter.  Despite some command issues, he has flashed TOR potential.  I swear if guys don’t come up and immediately dominate you think there is no room for growth.  Your pessimism is really getting the best of you man.

[Jack Parkman]

12 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

So, basically, your theory is that if everyone sucks, they are in trouble?  Got it. 

No, my theory is they have a lot of boom/bust guys and you expect more of those types to bust rather than hit. 

[Jack Parkman]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Kopech is working on his change right now and from all reports it’s coming along fine.  I have zero doubts he’ll be an effective ML starter.  The only question with him is just how good.

Where do you get the idea Dunning is throwing 90-92?  Everything I’ve read is he’s typically around 93 and he’s known for having pinpoint command.  He’s probably the second most likely guy to end up being a quality starter in our system after Kopech.

And I have no idea how you could watch Lopez this year and see a 4 or 5 starter.  Despite some command issues, he has flashed TOR potential.  I swear if guys don’t come up and immediately dominate you think there is no room for growth.  Your pessimism is really getting the best of you man.

Nah, not really. Lopez has games where he misses bats, but he doesn't really miss them as much as a pitcher with his stuff should. Last start I heard that Dunning was averaging 91 on twitter from BA/BP/FG guys, so that is where I got that from. Lopez walks a ton of batters too. He also has a below average spin rate on his FB. A pitcher with his stuff shouldn't throw 6.2 innings and strike out nobody. That tells me something is up. Eno Sarris in his chat on the Atlhetic on Friday said that best case scenario with Lopez is that he's a back end starter or middle reliever. I tend to think he could be a 3, but I'm not that far apart in opinion from him. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[greg775]

Kopech and Cease better be damn good and one more of the bunch better be damn good. If we can't get 3 EXCELLENT starters out of this rebuilt group, well heads will roll. Gio looks blah and ReyLo (horrible nickname) might be OK. The bullpen will be rebuilt through acquisitions. You only need to sign 2-3 relievers to be OK there. It'll cost some cash though. I hope we keep all the guys in the rebuild as starters cause if we do, you'd think 3-4 would click.

[caulfield12]

Everyone's forgetting about Rodon...he's under team control through 2021.  If he can regain his form, that takes a LOT of the pressure off the rest of youngsters, they can all fall in line behind him, instead of coming up to the big leagues and feeling the pressure right off the bat to "be the man."

[caulfield12]

10 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Nah, not really. Lopez has games where he misses bats, but he doesn't really miss them as much as a pitcher with his stuff should. Last start I heard that Dunning was averaging 91 on twitter from BA/BP/FG guys, so that is where I got that from. Lopez walks a ton of batters too. He also has a below average spin rate on his FB. A pitcher with his stuff shouldn't throw 6.2 innings and strike out nobody. That tells me something is up. Eno Sarris in his chat on the Atlhetic on Friday said that best case scenario with Lopez is that he's a back end starter or middle reliever. I tend to think he could be a 3, but I'm not that far apart in opinion from him. 

His last start, Dunning was 90-92, touching 93.   Probably going through a "dead arm" period six weeks out of spring training.  We'll see how his velocity looks the next 2-3 times out to see if that was just an anomaly.

For Giolito, he definitely pitches a couple of MPH slower in cool/er weather.  That much is obvious.

[StateStSports]

None of us know how any of these prospects will perform. Embrace the future and let’s see what happens. Go read a book and take a deep breath.  

[Jose Abreu]

I also think one of the McClure/Puckett/Stephens types will end up being a solid 3/4 starter. It's not always the top guys who end up making it, after all. Gotta factor the wild cards in 

[Jack Parkman]

46 minutes ago, StateStSports said:

None of us know how any of these prospects will perform. Embrace the future and let’s see what happens. Go read a book and take a deep breath.  

This is true. Thank you. All we can do is hope and see what happens, More will probably fail than be successful. 

[fathom]

Lopez fastball has been fine this year. It's his change up that is getting destroyed. Second worst in baseball as of last week.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

I've been saying all along that failure rates and injuries will take their toll on the young pitching to those who think the whole staff will come from the prospects and I am as positive as you can be about giving pitchers the time necessary to develop.

So yea right now things look bleak but really what did you expect ? It's YOUNG pitching. DUH. Use some common sense people . Expecting great things from prospects is  wonderful  but no one should be shocked when they don't live up to expectations especially until they reach about 25 years old. These things have been a constant in baseball for a long time. Expecting the Sox to keep escaping injuries and development time and having all prospects on the staff is just not and never will be realistic.