Abreu- does he stay or go?

[GreenSox]

1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Can’t trade a lefty like Fry when he’s got another six years of control.  He can be a key part of our long-term bullpen.

The brings up the question:  what is the shelf life of a reliever?  He won't help the Sox win a championship for at least another 2 years.
On the other hand, if you trade him, no team  will pay 6 years of value.

One positive with Abreu in the trade market is that he has 1.5 seasons of control:  that seems to be the "sweet spot" in trades re maximizing value, especially for a player his age.  He's one year older than Carlos Gomez was when he was traded and has same amount of control.

[wrathofhahn]

46 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

In all honesty, we should listen on offers for Abreu, but man would it be hard for me to move him.  The reasons are many & obvious.  First & foremost, he’s one of the best hitters in baseball.  Trading him instantly creates a huge need in the middle of the lineup.  And no, let’s not view Jimenez as somehow being his replacement.  The quickest path to contention is to add a couple impact bats in addition to Abreu.  Eloy can be one of those, but swapping him for Jose doesn’t move the needle.

Beyond the on-the-field stuff, dude just seems to be a tremendous leader and clubhouse presence.  While it gets said repeatedly, his influence on the young LatAm guys is vitally important.  And I’m sure I’m in the minority here, but I think his relationship with Moncada is perhaps the one factor that could get him to consider a long-term extension before hitting free agency.  Regardless, I truly think there is value in keeping Jose around as an ambassador to the team & brand.  

If I felt Abreu was a strong candidate for a sudden drop off in production then I might reconsider, but I don’t believe that to be the case with him.  Outside of his insane rookie season, he looks as good as ever, the “wrong side of 30” be damned for all I care.

You expect him to buck historical trends on what basis? The fact he hasn't shown decline yet thats now how it works he's 31 the big decline usually happens 33-34.

He'll be 33 when his contract ends part of what he is saying now is he no doubt wants to stay but he also probably wants an extension.

 

[Two-Gun Pete]

9 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

Let's be real here. The growth of Matt Davidson makes Jose expendable. 

Are we REALLY certain that this is actual "growth," and not just a lucky year for him? Haven't we seen "one year wonders" go right back to sucking out loud at baseball? (Right, Avisail?)

And is it prudent to believe in a guy who has sucked at baseball for as long as he's been in the White Sox organization, with this one year as a statistical outlier?

 

I'm happy for Davidson, & I truly hope that this is who he really is going forward. But, the back of his baseball card tells us otherwise. This is a HIGHER BB Rate than he had, even in A+; this fact alone suggests to me that his current level of form is not sustainable. Moreover, I'd guess that he's due for some regression, to the tune of some 100-150 points off his OPS as his BB Rate normalizes. I hope I'm wrong.

[Kyyle23]

4 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Are we REALLY certain that this is actual "growth," and not just a lucky year for him? Haven't we seen "one year wonders" go right back to sucking out loud at baseball? (Right, Avisail?)

And is it prudent to believe in a guy who has sucked at baseball for as long as he's been in the White Sox organization, with this one year as a statistical outlier?

 

I'm happy for Davidson, & I truly hope that this is who he really is going forward. But, the back of his baseball card tells us otherwise. This is a HIGHER BB Rate than he had, even in A+; this fact alone suggests to me that his current level of form is not sustainable. Moreover, I'd guess that he's due for some regression, to the tune of some 100-150 points off his OPS as his BB Rate normalizes. I hope I'm wrong.

Keep in mind Hot Fire is Ron, and Ron doesn’t like Abreu because Abreu makes him look bad every year

[wrathofhahn]

19 minutes ago, Two-Gun Pete said:

Are we REALLY certain that this is actual "growth," and not just a lucky year for him? Haven't we seen "one year wonders" go right back to sucking out loud at baseball? (Right, Avisail?)

And is it prudent to believe in a guy who has sucked at baseball for as long as he's been in the White Sox organization, with this one year as a statistical outlier?

 

I'm happy for Davidson, & I truly hope that this is who he really is going forward. But, the back of his baseball card tells us otherwise. This is a HIGHER BB Rate than he had, even in A+; this fact alone suggests to me that his current level of form is not sustainable. Moreover, I'd guess that he's due for some regression, to the tune of some 100-150 points off his OPS as his BB Rate normalizes. I hope I'm wrong.

Sure Davidson makes it easier in the nearterm and it sort of gives us more clarity longterm but the main reason to move Abreu has nothing to do Davidson it's his age and limited control.

If we were contenders I'd be perfectly fine with sacrificing some of Davidson value by not playing him at 3B/1B and just having him DH. It would make perfect sense kind of like what the Redsox are doing with Javier.

But right now we aren't ready to win and honestly if Davidson can hit I want to see if he can play 1B or even 3B.

[southsider2k5]

I would see if he is interested in something like a 4/74 or 5/95 type of extension that eats up he last year of arb and some fa.

Maybe something like 16m.18m.20m.20m for a 4 year deal adding on another 20m with a mutual buyout or opt out for year 4.

[bmags]

Jose certainly keeps coming up a lot nationally recently.

[soxfan49]

6 minutes ago, bmags said:

Jose certainly keeps coming up a lot nationally recently.

Yeah, Rosenthal linked him to LAD last night but then said that LAD isn’t ready to make any deals yet because even Abreu may not even help them contend

[southsider2k5]

22 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

Yeah, Rosenthal linked him to LAD last night but then said that LAD isn’t ready to make any deals yet because even Abreu may not even help them contend

The Dodgers also haven't shown they are willing to pay up in a trade.

[Replacement Level Poster]

I’d keep him unless the offer is stupidly in favor of the White Sox. The problem is this-he’s a heavy bodied 31 year old. What are the chances he will sustain and not breakdown or decline  in the next five years as the Sox hopefully move into a contention mode?Then what value will he hold for a contending team in say 2021?  This won’t be a Konerko situation to keep around when they won’t contend anyway like 2014.  The worst part is Jose seems like a quality teammate, leader, and person in general. How could the guy not have some perspective on life and baseball knowing what he went through to even be afforded the opportunity to play for the Sox. It’s too bad he may never be a big piece when the Sox are competitive. He’s almost universally beloved by our fan base and deservedly so.

[ron883]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

I would see if he is interested in something like a 4/74 or 5/95 type of extension that eats up he last year of arb and some fa.

Maybe something like 16m.18m.20m.20m for a 4 year deal adding on another 20m with a mutual buyout or opt out for year 4.

Thank god you aren't the GM. Paying a dh 20m in his twilight years? No. That will be a bad contract that would be better spent on a position of need in the future. Sox have enough guys in the minors that will become DH/1b candidates. Sheets, Collins, Zavala, Burger. Eloy if better defensive outfield prospects work out. Davidson is already up here too. Abreu is expendable. 

 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Hot FiRe said:

Thank god you aren't the GM. Paying a dh 20m in his twilight years? No. That will be a bad contract that would be better spent on a position of need in the future. Sox have enough guys in the minors that will become DH/1b candidates. Sheets, Collins, Zavala, Burger. Eloy if better defensive outfield prospects work out. Davidson is already up here too. Abreu is expendable. 

 

This coming from the guy who was wanting to DFA him a year ago.

[ron883]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

This coming from the guy who was wanting to DFA him a year ago.

1. You are misquoting me. Never said that. I said his numbers at the time were DFA worthy. 2. It was over a year ago. 

 

Giving him a contract like that would be completely ill advised. 

[southsider2k5]

Just now, Hot FiRe said:

1. You are misquoting me. Never said that. I said his numbers at the time were DFA worthy. 2. It was over a year ago. 

 

Giving him a contract like that would be completely ill advised. 

lol, nice try.  Just own it.

[wrathofhahn]

14 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

1. You are misquoting me. Never said that. I said his numbers at the time were DFA worthy. 2. It was over a year ago. 

 

Giving him a contract like that would be completely ill advised. 

Beyond ill advised it would be GM malpractice at the end of both arb years he'll be 33. Why would anyone pay 95 million for 1B/DH going through ages 33-38. That is insane.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/02/what-baseball-player-prime-age/mS39neFWm4hrVukT6lSYuK/story.html

Edwin Encarnison had to settle for 3 years 60 million that is sort of Abreu ceiling because honestly the market for 1B/DH has only gotten worse since then and EE was coming off a year where he hit 40 HR's

Edited May 20, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[southsider2k5]

JD Martinez just got $110 million. 

[wrathofhahn]

3 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

JD Martinez just got $110 million. 

He was 29 when he signed his deal. Abreu will be 33.

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

He was 29 when he signed his deal. Abreu will be 33.

The deal wouldn't start with his free agency, and included an opt out after 3.

[wrathofhahn]

8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

The deal wouldn't start with his free agency, and included an opt out after 3.

If the opt-out is mutual then the deal is fine but you might as well just make it three then because unless you front load the deal year 35/36 he aint opting out. 

Alse the still fact remains he will likely be into his decline phase by the time the sox are good and we'd be essentially be paying him to play his best baseball for a club that won't win a meaningful game.

For that reason I'd still move him if a good offer is on the table if none exists then you sort of have a decision to make. Then maybe you sort of weigh the benefits of an extension or potentially offering a QO in two years time. Honestly my preference would still be to wait. Time is on our side it isn't on Abreus

 

 

[reiks12]

Depends on what is offered, and i expect there to be some good offers for him

[Richie]

19 hours ago, Heads22 said:

If he returns, it'll be to play first.

No one is calling on Fry with a whopping total of what, 7.1 IP. I love what I've seen too, but I doubt anyone's calling on him.

Well, the trade deadline is a ways down the road. He could easily rack up a good chunk of innings by then. If he keeps this up (or close to it... more realistically) clubs will call. 

[Texsox]

6 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

Thank god you aren't the GM. Paying a dh 20m in his twilight years? No. That will be a bad contract that would be better spent on a position of need in the future. Sox have enough guys in the minors that will become DH/1b candidates. Sheets, Collins, Zavala, Burger. Eloy if better defensive outfield prospects work out. Davidson is already up here too. Abreu is expendable. 

 

Most contracts favor the team early and the player later. I’ve always looked at the average per year. Deals get structured this way hoping for increasing team revenues not expecting productivity to increase.

 

[Reddy]

Trade and it's a no-brainer. I love the guy, but he'll be in decline when we're trying to compete, he's got value now, and can bring us more pieces for our eventual contending team. Makes very little sense to keep him.

[soxfan49]

9 minutes ago, Reddy said:

Trade and it's a no-brainer. I love the guy, but he'll be in decline when we're trying to compete, he's got value now, and can bring us more pieces for our eventual contending team. Makes very little sense to keep him.

But when I said I’d ask for two top 100 prospects earlier this year, I was told they’d never get that, so what “pieces” can he actually net this organization?

Edited May 20, 2018 by soxfan49

[southsider2k5]

Again,  look at what JD Martinez brought,  which was minimal.