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2019 MLB draft thread


southsider2k5
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7 minutes ago, bmags said:

I don't understand the hyperbolic hate around Abrams.

You really think the Sox are going to go toolsy HS guy over college mega bat? 

They took Burger at 11 when they had 100 toolsy kids available.  

Hawkins is the outlier according to the evidence. 

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1 minute ago, Jerksticks said:

You really think the Sox are going to go toolsy HS guy over college mega bat? 

They took Burger at 11 when they had 100 toolsy kids available.  

Hawkins is the outlier according to the evidence. 

This doesn't answer why selecting abrams would be "stupid".

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4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

College hasn't worked so well lately, go with a high upside HS guy. Even if his timeline is 2024+ you can trade him for help sooner.

HSers could help extend the window too. 

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2 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

You really think the Sox are going to go toolsy HS guy over college mega bat? 

They took Burger at 11 when they had 100 toolsy kids available.  

Hawkins is the outlier according to the evidence. 

Didn’t the Sox want Adell in that draft?

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50 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I just hope they pick the best player on their board. The White Sox trying to get cute with undersloting seems like a disaster waiting to happen.

 

This #3 pick is our prize for sitting through a 100 loss season. Everyone else they draft would have been available if they were picking 30th. 

Underslotting kind of seems like signing Yonder & Jay. Trying to get to cute like you said instead of making the right move.

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7 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Burger, Collins, Mercedes, Eloy, Abreu, Vaughn.  

Give me Bleday.

Burger = 3B

Collins = C/DH/1B

Eloy = LF/DH/1B

Abreu = bye bye

Vaughn = 1B/DH

 

Potential 2021 Team

C - Collins (pre-Arb)/ FA/McCann/ or Zavala

1B - Vaughn (pre-Arb)/Collins

2B - Madrigal (pre-Arb)

SS - Anderson ($7.25)

3B - Moncada (1st year Arb)

LF - Jimenez ($4.33)

CF - Robert (pre-Arb)

RF - FA?

 

SP - Giolito (1st year Arb)

SP - Rodon (3rd year Arb)

SP - Kopech (pre-Arb)

SP - Cease (pre-Arb)

SP - FA

 

RP - Lopez (1st year Arb)

RP - Bummer (1st year Arb)

RP - Fry (1st year Arb)

 

Dead Money - Kelvin Herrera $1 mill.

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I do know one thing, the report that KW wanted Abrams and the other White Sox people wanted someone else is total BS. That would never get out. This is a team that tried to make it physically look like they weren't interested in Abreu when they went to his showcase.

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2 minutes ago, Chisox378 said:

My problem with Abrams is that he is a skinny guy who is not projected to have power but has a power swing. I don't like his swing for his body type and skill set. Unless he gains lots of pounds.

He does not have a power swing. He also was tagged with 60 raw power from fangraphs.

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

This doesn't answer why selecting abrams would be "stupid".

Cuz he’s a skinny high school kid praised for his speed and defensive transfer abilities?  That’s flat out embarrassingly  terrible at #3.   Grab Vaughn and let’s mash some baseballs next year in the playoffs.  BPA and NEED.  It’s too perfect. 

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4 minutes ago, Chisox378 said:

My problem with Abrams is that he is a skinny guy who is not projected to have power but has a power swing. I don't like his swing for his body type and skill set. Unless he gains lots of pounds.

And if he gains "lots of pounds," he may not retain his elite speed, which seems to be his only exceptional tool.

Edited by Lillian
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Sriram

3:51

Thanks for all the work.  The Top 100 shows your rankings - but where do you think the major breakpoints are in your rankings, where you think the tiers are among the prospects.

Keith Law

3:52

The big one I've highlighted is that I think Vaughn is close to Rutschman, and there's a breakpoint right after him, before the HS crop. That seems to put me at odds with my colleagues at MLB or Fangraphs.

 

Edited by DirtySox
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Roger

3:52

If Abrams does slide into the teens/middle of the first round would it be because most of those teams don't view him as the top prospect on the board?  Or possibly because they've already done so much work on other players not really realizing he'd be available?

Keith Law

3:54

This is a great question for which I don't have a great answer, but my instinct is that the second issue is bigger than folks want to admit. If you didn't really do the work on Abrams, and you have a player or small set of players on whom you did all the work (not just scouting but medicals and meetings and psych tests or whatever) who will be there, do you just say "fuck it!" and take Abrams, or stick with your process? I would probably do the latter unless it were someone who was such a no-doubter like Vaughn.

I like that he consider's Vaughn a "no-doubter."

Edited by DirtySox
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3 minutes ago, Jerksticks said:

Cuz he’s a skinny high school kid praised for his speed and defensive transfer abilities?  That’s flat out embarrassingly  terrible at #3.   Grab Vaughn and let’s mash some baseballs next year in the playoffs.  BPA and NEED.  It’s too perfect. 

It's top line speed paired with good contact ability and the possibility of growing into power. His inability to stick at SS drops him all the way to the value suck of...center field.

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Nicholas

3:56

Please correct me if I am off-base here, but I normally wouldn't expect you to rank someone like Vaughn (college RH first baseman) as high as you have him. So the bat is really that good?

Keith Law

3:56

It's really that good, and who in this class might be better, especially once you consider the certainty/proximity of a college position player over a high school player?

Quote

Josh

3:56

What is the best comp for Vaughn, upside-wise?

Keith Law

3:57

I have said a few times I think his swing reminds me of Goldschmidt's, and the profile overall reminds me of Hoskins', just in a shorter package.

 

Edited by DirtySox
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1 minute ago, bmags said:

It's top line speed paired with good contact ability and the possibility of growing into power. His inability to stick at SS drops him all the way to the value suck of...center field.

In 2023 maybe? This isn’t Vlad Jr.  Is Abrams who you want them to take?  I can respect that even if I disagree 

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In a normal year I think Abrams would be a fine pick. But the Sox have a chance at Rutchsman/Vaughn, and those guys just seem to be clearly better when you consider the risk associated with prep players. 

I just want one of those 2. 

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4 minutes ago, bmags said:

It's top line speed paired with good contact ability and the possibility of growing into power. His inability to stick at SS drops him all the way to the value suck of...center field.

Possibility of growing into power is not what I'd want with the #3 pick.  I've seen him projected as a 10-15 HR guy.  We would have a middle infield combining for like 15-20HRs in a few years.  

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Just now, Jerksticks said:

In 2023 maybe? This isn’t Vlad Jr.  Is Abrams who you want them to take?  I can respect that even if I disagree 

There's no guarantee in college players being there before high school players!

As I've pointed out many times, the sox drafted 3 college players in 2016, and 28th overall pick Carter Kieboom beat them all to the majors. A reliever (fast mover!), a top bat (super polished), and a former top 10 projection.

I like abrams a lot and would still take vaughn because of Keith Law being so high on him.

But that doesn't mean Abrams is an idiotic choice. The defensive concerns read a lot like a reps issue and his hit tool means he can tap into at least decent power with approach changes.

I'm just tired of the the constant bashing of jared mitchell as a example of why you shouldn't draft speed/athleticism or hawkins for not drafting prep, meanwhile copy/pasting college players into future lineups immediately as if we haven't had larger number of college busts.

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2 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Possibility of growing into power is not what I'd want with the #3 pick.  I've seen him projected as a 10-15 HR guy.  We would have a middle infield combining for like 15-20HRs in a few years.  

That sounds like an Anderson/Madrigal issue, too.

You should go look at a bunch of high school major leaguer scouting reports and how often "needs to add pounds to grow into power" are written about them.

Francisco Lindor had a future 40 tagged to his power.

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2 minutes ago, bmags said:

That sounds like an Anderson/Madrigal issue, too.

You should go look at a bunch of high school major leaguer scouting reports and how often "needs to add pounds to grow into power" are written about them.

Francisco Lindor had a future 40 tagged to his power.

You really think Anderson and Madrigal will combine for 15-20 homers? Even if Madrigal only hits ~5 a year, Anderson's going to be above 20 on his own.

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