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2019 MLB draft thread

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11 hours ago, bmags said:

One thing about witt, sometimes with hit tool questions you'll see the player be a bit more over the board as media evaluators seem to really get worried about getting too far in front of those guys, but witt is not 1 anymore but he's top 4. I would find it hard to believe he falls far based on what spring ball will look like but maybe a college player like misner or a pitcher catches fire. I would be really happy with either witt or abrams. Those are the type of tools and athletes totally missing passed Robert.

Adolfo has a ton of pure ability...just not expressed with flat out sprint speed, but he's got a lot of other tools in his toolbox.  He's the the one that outside evaluators usually rave the most about beyond the immediate Top 5 prospects.

Edited by caulfield12

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3 hours ago, BigHurt3515 said:

With Dunning possibly going down we really need another high end pitcher, sucks there isn't a college pitcher out there that should go 1-3

I was thinking the same thing. I hope some pitcher emerges as a Top 3 pick.

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Was just randomly looking at Andrew Vaughns twitter and he and Nick Hostetler follow each other......could be a sign

This also led me to check other draft prospects twitters and CJ Abrams follows the White Sox and no other teams...must be a sox fan. This one obviously doesn't mean much but Vaughn following Hosteler probably does mean there has been a connection there 

Edited by MyNamesRod

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Unless Adley falls to #3, I really hope we go with upside all else being equal.  I wouldn’t necessarily hate the Vaughn pick in isolation, but the system will quickly lack potential impact talent after the next round of graduations and it’s time to put a greater emphasis on ceiling over floor IMO.

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11 hours ago, turnin' two said:

I don't think Vaughn's position matters at all if you buy that bat.  I can think of more than a few RHH 1B that have made a serious impact on their teams fortunes.  Heck, I think the Sox have even had a few.  Can't think of their names just now, but I think it is a list that goes back about 30 years at this point.  

If he is Paul Goldschmidt or Rhys Hoskins with the bat, the rest doesn't matter. 

What I don’t like about this thinking is assuming Vaughn becomes a top RH 1b. I don’t have an issue with a top right handed 1b in the majors, they are valuable. But many of them started in other positions and the absolute best bats then moved over as their bodies changed. 

The list of 1st round 1b the last ten years is not great. Goldschmidt was a 9th round pick iirc, Hoskins was a 5th round pick.

Draftees need to be able to get better and with college first baseman the question is if their athletic ability or build that pushed them to first already is maxed out, and if that will prevent them from hitting the next level.

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WS need talent and depth everywhere. We can talk ourselves in or out on any number of players/positions. No one has a crystal ball but past and current performance is a good indicator of future. As we sit here today, it appears we have reasonable OF depth. IF is another story and there is room to improve at every position and no real rising phenoms to look forward to. That said, my biggest concern is pitching, especially if Dunning is out. The more I read about Espino, the better I like him.  

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12 hours ago, ChiSoxJon said:

The health of a prospect shouldn't dictate this pick

Not really saying just because Dunning is hurt after Cease we don't really have a pitching prospect in the top 10 in our system (not including Kopech), pitching is thinner then we thought with Hansen imploding last year and Dunning having injury history.

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Just now, BigHurt3515 said:

Not really saying just because Dunning is hurt after Cease we don't really have a pitching prospect in the top 10 in our system (not including Kopech), pitching is thinner then we thought with Hansen imploding last year and Dunning having injury history.

Sox will need to buy some pitching at some point. They should keep drafting bats though. 

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I don't think Espino is going to be an option for them.  I think teams are starting to stay away from the fireballing 100mph + HS pitcher because the recent history is so bad. These guys peak too early and have no where to go but backwards.  Kolek and Greene have already had TJ and Riley Pint is anywhere near as good as he was during his draft year.  Someone will take a chance on him but I don't think it will be in the top half of the 1st round. 

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I wonder if a deal might be struck at three $ wise to get some harder signs later if no one clearly is exciting at three?

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30 minutes ago, BamaDoc said:

I wonder if a deal might be struck at three $ wise to get some harder signs later if no one clearly is exciting at three?

I don't think we should worry too much about that. There are too many other teams with multiple picks before our second pick for us to pinch pennies to try to float someone down. I mean if all things are equal, then we should take the cheaper one, but I doubt there would be a clear split like that.

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kiley just said witt and abrams aren't far off in hit tool, with witt a hair below. Makes me feel better about either. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, bmags said:

kiley just said witt and abrams aren't far off in hit tool, with witt a hair below. Makes me feel better about either. 

 

 

I'd like to see the Sox go with highest upside player at #3 overall  versus the "safer" college prospect. I really do not like drafting a college 1B in the top 5, because there is little margin for error if the bat is not clear plus. 

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I'm quite surprised Law has Vaughn at number 2. That type of player isn't really his M.O. He either really buys the hit/power tool, or is really down on the top of this draft class. 

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5 hours ago, DirtySox said:

I'm quite surprised Law has Vaughn at number 2. That type of player isn't really his M.O. He either really buys the hit/power tool, or is really down on the top of this draft class. 

He'll be there until the Sox take him in the draft, then KLaw will drop him considerably because White Sox.

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9 hours ago, bmags said:

What I don’t like about this thinking is assuming Vaughn becomes a top RH 1b. I don’t have an issue with a top right handed 1b in the majors, they are valuable. But many of them started in other positions and the absolute best bats then moved over as their bodies changed. 

The list of 1st round 1b the last ten years is not great. Goldschmidt was a 9th round pick iirc, Hoskins was a 5th round pick.

Draftees need to be able to get better and with college first baseman the question is if their athletic ability or build that pushed them to first already is maxed out, and if that will prevent them from hitting the next level.

That is completely fair.  And I agree, but I just think he can't be completely discounted because he is a RHH 1B.  

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13 hours ago, turnin' two said:

That is completely fair.  And I agree, but I just think he can't be completely discounted because he is a RHH 1B.  

Frank Thomas says hello. Not saying Vaughn is anywhere close to Frank but he was drafted as a RH 1B out of college. If the kid can rake I don't care what position he plays.

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36 minutes ago, HoosierSox said:

Frank Thomas says hello. Not saying Vaughn is anywhere close to Frank but he was drafted as a RH 1B out of college. If the kid can rake I don't care what position he plays.

But inherent in that is your problem. If the player has to be "almost as good as Frank Thomas" to justify the pick, he's not gonna be.

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2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

But inherent in that is your problem. If the player has to be "almost as good as Frank Thomas" to justify the pick, he's not gonna be.

Vauhn is inhuman. No one doubts his bat and every report suggests he will be among the fastest to MLB where he will be a fixture in the heart of a lineup. He won Golden Spikes last year (best college player) and, along with Rauchman is in two-horse race this year. 1B is one of 8 positions that needs to be manned. Reports are that he is a strong fielder. Not everyone can play middle IF. From my perspective, given Sox needs and track record of player development, he is a complete no-brainer and anyone who passes on him because he doesn't fit their idea of a protypical 1B will regret it.

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5 minutes ago, Flash said:

Vauhn is inhuman. No one doubts his bat and every report suggests he will be among the fastest to MLB where he will be a fixture in the heart of a lineup. He won Golden Spikes last year (best college player) and, along with Rauchman is in two-horse race this year. 1B is one of 8 positions that needs to be manned. Reports are that he is a strong fielder. Not everyone can play middle IF. From my perspective, given Sox needs and track record of player development, he is a complete no-brainer and anyone who passes on him because he doesn't fit their idea of a protypical 1B will regret it.

That's the point.  They have a chance to draft a guy in Jr or Abrams who can at least be above avg at the most difficult position to fill.  They can find a 1B anywhere.  The chance to draft a difference making SS is extremely rare and should not be passed up.

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1 hour ago, Balta1701 said:

But inherent in that is your problem. If the player has to be "almost as good as Frank Thomas" to justify the pick, he's not gonna be.

Why is that true.  Why does he have to be HOF caliber hitter to justify the 3 overall pick?  Do you have the same threshold for a pitcher?  A corner OF?  A team needs a 1B, and I get that guys can be moved into 1B if they can't play elsewhere, but if you are drafting a guy expecting that he will have to be moved, how is that different?  

Let's say you draft a big mashing 3B, that most people believe will have to move to 1B, sure there is a chance he can play 3B, but it seems most likely you just drafted a 1B.  Is that much different?

It is easy to say just draft up the middle talent.  But for the most part, in the history of baseball (CF excluded, actually) those guys aren't the best hitters.  Your organization needs guys all over.  You need SS, but you also need 3 hitter.  If those can be the same guy, well that is a huge bonus, but that hasn't happened much in the history of baseball.

Witt (and I am no expert here, just for the record) is an up the middle defensive player correct?  But he has some concerns about his hit tool correct? So his defensive abilities may be completely negated by his lack of being able to hit.  So you get maybe a utility IF out of a 3 overall pick.  That doesn't really do much for you. 

Everyone here is high on Rutschman, and he seems like a monster, but playing catcher wears guys out.  It drains them of offensive ability, at least usually.  Maybe he is the 1% of guys like Molina or Piazza, but even guys that looked like studs in Mauer and Posey get worn out and get moved to 1B.  

From 2000-2010 (from a fangraphs article (https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/)), guys taken 1-5 have an average WAR of 12.8 (article written in 2016, so some likely still accruing), does a 1B need to get higher WAR than that to be successful?  No.  Do they need to hit more?  Yeah, a bit.  But that player wouldn't have to be HOF level to justify the pick.  If you got a Jose Abreu out of the 3 pick, well, I know I'd be thrilled.  Eric Hosmer was the 3rd overall pick, I would bet the Royals were happy with him, even though he wasn't as good as Frank Thomas. 

Edited by turnin' two
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Some drafty stuff from Kiley's chat yesterday.

Quote

Darren: Draft question: how would you describe the plate discipline of Witt and Abrams?

Kiley McDaniel: Abrams about average, Witt maybe a hair below, but they’re pretty close

Quote

Owen: What are the early returns on Zack Thompson?

Kiley McDaniel: 2019 draft lefty at Kentucky. Has come out strong so far, I’ll probably track him down in the next month or so. He’s got mid-1st round ability but has never put stuff, command and healthy together for more than a start or two in his whole career, so bulk of solid performance is a big factor for him

Quote

Josh Nelson: Bryson Stott is off to a good start. Is Abrams/Witt ceiling too high for Stott to pass them up on Draft SS rankings?

Kiley McDaniel: If he goes nuts, he could go top 3. Looks like he can play SS and has 50-55 raw power and hit last spring. UNLV is also hitter-friendly, so teams round down on the stats there, which hurt Kyle Isbel last year.

Quote

Big Al Avila: Kiley, who would you target at pick 5 if you were me? Thx

Kiley McDaniel: If I had to guess what our top tier will be on draft day, I will say this:

1. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State
2. C.J. Abrams, SS, HS – GA
3. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California
4. Bobby Witt, SS, HS – TX
5. Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV
6. Kameron Misner, RF, Missouri

Quote

Henry: So Logan Davidson isn’t off to a great start. Is he still a no-doubt first rounder?

Kiley McDaniel: For now, yes, could fall into the Jeremy Eierman vortex if this continues

Quote

James: I LOVE Andrew Vaughn’s bat, but looking for comps of under 6′, right-handed, 1B-only guys who truly worked and became middle-of-the-order bats, all I could really come up with is Steve Garvey. Are there other successes I’m missing?

Kiley McDaniel: Albert Pujols and Cecil Fielder were both 6’3 and I’m having trouble thinking of shorter ones. Jeff Bagwell is listed at 6’0, so maybe he was actually 5’11?

Quote

Mike: Wat’s been happening to Carter Stewart that his stock has fallen? He still seems like he has better stuff than any of the pitchers ranked before him on the big board and plenty of projection.

Kiley McDaniel: His last outing was 90-93, touched higher but couldn’t throw strikes at 94-97, body/command/delivery have backed up some, curveball isn’t as crisp, added a cutter that isn’t doing much yet

Kiley McDaniel: He can still recover, but at this time last year he was 91-95, touching 97 with more strikes, flashing a 70 hook and showing starter traits with projection in the frame, then was sitting 93-95 a month later

Quote

Dominik : Could vaughn play third? Read he played there in HS. Or is it 1b only?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s 1B only

Quote

Robert: If Holland has another good year, can you see him going too 5? Reminds me of some other recent SEC SS’s who went quickly.

Kiley McDaniel: Nowhere near the feel to hit of those guy, but tools are similar. I think he’s a tools-over-feel 2B/CF that goes 20-35 but some think there’s even less feel and he belongs more around 50

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-2-27-19/

Edited by DirtySox
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5 hours ago, turnin' two said:

Why is that true.  Why does he have to be HOF caliber hitter to justify the 3 overall pick?  Do you have the same threshold for a pitcher?  A corner OF?  A team needs a 1B, and I get that guys can be moved into 1B if they can't play elsewhere, but if you are drafting a guy expecting that he will have to be moved, how is that different?  

Let's say you draft a big mashing 3B, that most people believe will have to move to 1B, sure there is a chance he can play 3B, but it seems most likely you just drafted a 1B.  Is that much different?

It is easy to say just draft up the middle talent.  But for the most part, in the history of baseball (CF excluded, actually) those guys aren't the best hitters.  Your organization needs guys all over.  You need SS, but you also need 3 hitter.  If those can be the same guy, well that is a huge bonus, but that hasn't happened much in the history of baseball.

Witt (and I am no expert here, just for the record) is an up the middle defensive player correct?  But he has some concerns about his hit tool correct? So his defensive abilities may be completely negated by his lack of being able to hit.  So you get maybe a utility IF out of a 3 overall pick.  That doesn't really do much for you. 

Everyone here is high on Rutschman, and he seems like a monster, but playing catcher wears guys out.  It drains them of offensive ability, at least usually.  Maybe he is the 1% of guys like Molina or Piazza, but even guys that looked like studs in Mauer and Posey get worn out and get moved to 1B.  

From 2000-2010 (from a fangraphs article (https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/)), guys taken 1-5 have an average WAR of 12.8 (article written in 2016, so some likely still accruing), does a 1B need to get higher WAR than that to be successful?  No.  Do they need to hit more?  Yeah, a bit.  But that player wouldn't have to be HOF level to justify the pick.  If you got a Jose Abreu out of the 3 pick, well, I know I'd be thrilled.  Eric Hosmer was the 3rd overall pick, I would bet the Royals were happy with him, even though he wasn't as good as Frank Thomas. 

One of the things you leave out though is the availability of viable replacements. You do need people who can play first, but if there are 25 good ones in the league, its less expensive to get one. On the other hand, catchers that can hit are extremely rare, so having a guy who will be at least an average bat there while also being a good defender is really hard to replace and as such would be incredibly expensive.

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