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2019 MLB draft thread

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I just searched more information on Stinson's conversion to starting, and found this assessment encouraging, especially the 70 grade slider:

"The top-ranked pitcher in the 2019 draft class, Stinson has some of the best pure stuff in the country between a plus fastball and a 70-grade slider that routinely generates whiffs inside and outside of the strike zone. Stinson posted a 1.89 ERA while striking out more than 14 batters per nine innings in 2018, but he spent most of his time coming out of the bullpen. While there’s no doubting his swing-and-miss stuff—Stinson has fanned 143 batters in 90 collegiate innings—he will need to show that he’s capable of handling a starter’s role over a full season. He’s shown flashes that he can be a dominant Friday night arm, including six shutout innings against a powerful Texas Tech lineup in last year’s Lubbock Super Regional, but this year will be his first full season in the role. Stinson gets plenty of comparisons to former North Carolina State left hander Carlos Rodon because of his size and stuff, and he will prove a menace to batters every week throughout the season."

I also found this and I'm starting to find him intriguing:

“Somebody asked [Stinson] at the media lunch if he felt like he could get comfortable starting and he was like ‘Yeah, I have been a starter all my life up to the last 2 years,’” head coach Chris Pollard said. "He really feels like this is something that is comfortable for him because this is kind of more comfortable than what he has been doing coming out of the pen for us the last couple years.”

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8 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

I would be in favor of taking some pitching at 3 if it weren't so weak at the top. The only pitcher you could feasibly pop that high is Lodolo, and even that might be a bit of a reach. He's the only 50 pitcher FanGraphs has on the board. I think the ship has sailed on Stinson. Way too much questions this season, way too may instances of sitting in the upper 80's. I'm not touching that at number three with a fifty foot pole.

I hadn't seen anything, which suggested that he had lost his plus fastball. Are you sure that what you found, did not pertain to his younger brother, Cooper, who is also on that Duke staff? I do see that Baseball America stated on March 5TH that "Stinson's fast ball was clocked in the upper 80's". However, I can't read the article, as I don't have a subscription, and have to wonder if it was in reference to Cooper, not Graeme.

Edited by Lillian

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28 minutes ago, Lillian said:

I hadn't seen anything, which suggested that he had lost his plus fastball. Are you sure that what you found, did not pertain to his younger brother, Cooper, who is also on that Duke staff? I do see that Baseball America stated on March 5TH that "Stinson's fast ball was clocked in the upper 80's". However, I can't read the article, as I don't have a subscription, and have to wonder if it was in reference to Cooper, not Graeme.

It's absolutely Graeme. It's been the knock on him all season. It's why he's now ranked number 32 on the FanGraphs board and 41st on Baseball America's. His stock has crumbled. His peak on rankings was before the season started. See below for BA's blurb revisiting his preseason ranking, which was written/posted April 2nd.

Quote

Graeme Stinson, LHP, Duke (41)
Areas To Improve: Work deep into games, changeup, athleticism

Like Dyson, Stinson’s stock has been in a free fall this spring. He came out of the gate with worse stuff across the board than what he showed last summer, routinely in the mid- to upper 80s with his fastball and with less power on a slider that was previously a 70-grade offering. Stinson has also missed the last two weekends and hasn't pitched since March 15, when he threw four innings against Louisville and struck out only three batters.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-stock-watch-revisiting-preseason-to-do-lists/

Edited by DirtySox

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18 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Flat swing?  Sheesh.  Law is really picking nits with that one.  

To be fair he has been the low man on him this year.

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24 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Flat swing?  Sheesh.  Law is really picking nits with that one.  

Also something that can be corrected.  I know player development wasn't a strength but lisle should be able to fix that.

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7 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

It's absolutely Graeme. It's been the knock on him all season. It's why he's now ranked number 32 on the FanGraphs board and 41st on Baseball America's. His stock has crumbled. His peak on rankings was before the season started. See below for BA's blurb revisiting his preseason ranking, which was written/posted April 2nd.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-stock-watch-revisiting-preseason-to-do-lists/

Thank you. I couldn't find anything, except I didn't notice that it looks like he hasn't even pitched in the last few series. Maybe he's hurt. At any rate, you answered my question and he doesn't look like a candidate, at least not in the first round.

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Last year of course was ripe with HS pitching talent, and sox picked a college outfielder in the second round.

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BA Stock Watch this week. NHSI Participants is the focus. Abrams blurb below.

Quote

Abrams looked fine at the plate—he didn’t overwhelm and he didn’t look overmatched—but it was an impressive showing for him defensively at shortstop, which is the area that most scouts have had questions. While there is still risk he moves to center field in the future, Abrams showed the athleticism, range, footwork and throwing ability to more than handle himself at shortstop,

Whichever team takes Abrams during the draft in June will assuredly run him out at the position and leave him there until he proves he can’t handle it, but based on what he showed in Cary, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him stick in the dirt. Athleticism and speed are Abrams' best tools, defensively, but his glovework was solid the entire week. With more reps at the position, he should have all the talent and arm strength necessary to make throws from multiple angles and from deep in the hole.

Abrams did pull his first baseman off the bag on one play in the hole during the tournament, but he made the same play a day prior with no issues. Offensively, Abrams went 3-for-13 with one strikeout, two singles and a double. He didn’t look like he had the best approach in several of his at-bats, but he has enough track record of hitting and bat-to-ball skills that a small sample shouldn’t knock him too much.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-mlb-draft-stock-watch-standout-prospects-from-the-nhsi/

Edit: For the Priester fans.

Quote

Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove (Cary, Ill.)

Ranked No. 51 on BA's Top 300 Draft Prospects list, Priester is off to a hot start this season and recently threw 6.2 innings against Huntley (Ill.) High, striking out 11 batters and walking one. Priester showed good stuff, including a fastball in the 92-94 mph range with solid running life, a curveball with good spin and shape and a solid changeup as well. Priester allowed more contact than would be expected given the quality of his stuff (he surrendered seven hits), leading to some questions about his lack of deception, but he has all the ingredients for big upside with a few tweaks.

 

Edited by DirtySox
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I don't hate the idea of trying to strike an underslot deal with Nick Lodolo at #3.  I'm not particularly enamored with either prep shortstop or the crop of college outfielders, and Andrew Vaughn has come back down to earth.  I'm optimistic that the Sox will have a good offense in the near future.  Pitching is what worries me.

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FanGraphs Updated Draft Rankings.

Quote

Some preferences in the early picks are becoming clearer. It still seems like Adley Rutschman at one (Orioles) and Andrew Vaughn at two (Royals) are the two easier ones to project with what we know at this point (the full draft order and slots can be found here). Rutschman’s lead at the top spot is still significant, so it would take a major injury or an uglier-than-expected medical to make Vaughn a real option at the first pick for Baltimore. The buzz is that the White Sox are leaning heavily to college prospects for the third pick, with Nick Lodolo in the mix along with the next tier of college hitters, which can be ranked any way at this point (UNLV SS Bryson Stott, North Carolina 1B Michael Busch, Vanderbilt RF J.J. Bleday, Arizona State LF Hunter Bishop, Missouri RF Kameron Misner is the way we have them lined up right now).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updating-our-draft-rankings/

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Interesting on Lodolo. I don't think I would mind. Especially if they are able to underslot it a bit.

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Have to go hitter at #3. Too much risk drafting a pitcher that high (Injuries). Need to hit on this high draft pick and load up on the hitters even if that means we draft another OF.

1. Rutschman

2. Vaughn

3. Abrams

4. Witt

5. Bishop

We have money to spend on free agents and pitchers (Cole, Wheeler, Strasburg, etc and Rendon are the strength of free agency next year

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8 minutes ago, PolishPrince34 said:

Have to go hitter at #3. Too much risk drafting a pitcher that high (Injuries). Need to hit on this high draft pick and load up on the hitters even if that means we draft another OF.

1. Rutschman

2. Vaughn

3. Abrams

4. Witt

5. Bishop

We have money to spend on free agents and pitchers (Cole, Wheeler, Strasburg, etc and Rendon are the strength of free agency next year

I've been echoing these sentiments about taking hitters as well but I have some caveats. If they are averse to taking a high schooler (they shouldn't be) then I would prefer Nick Lodolo to one of the 2nd tier college bats. If Vaughn/Adley are off the board, I hope they just take Bobby Witt. I also don't believe that Baltimore is locked on Rutschman though. I could see them under-slotting a high schooler at #1. Rutschman just doesnt make a ton of sense for their timeline and it doesn't really fit the path that I think Mike Elias desires. 

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5 hours ago, PolishPrince34 said:

Have to go hitter at #3. Too much risk drafting a pitcher that high (Injuries). Need to hit on this high draft pick and load up on the hitters even if that means we draft another OF.

1. Rutschman

2. Vaughn

3. Abrams

4. Witt

5. Bishop

We have money to spend on free agents and pitchers (Cole, Wheeler, Strasburg, etc and Rendon are the strength of free agency next year

I think you can risk drafting a pitcher that high but only if he is a top talent. No issue taking a guy like mize this year at 3 because the ceiling for a pitcher is worth the extra risk.

But lodolo while  a good prospect probably only has like a realistic ceiling of a 3 starter. Now vaughn doesn't have a much higher ceiling but doesn't come with the same risk.

Imo extra risk needs to be balanced by an extra high ceiling. 

For example I don't like to take a polished HS hitter with middling tools, if you want that take a college guy because the risk is lower for the same upside. Same applies IMO to a pitcher, if you take a pitcher top3 the upside needs to be off the charts.

Edited by dominik-keul@gmx.de

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They won't do it, but the White Sox should just game the system by promising Rutschman a $9+ million bonus if he tells other teams not to draft him, similar to how the Royals got Brady Singer to fall to 18 last year. Why not? He's clearly the best player in the draft, and I'd rather underslot the last several rounds and get him than miss out on him and have extra bonus pool to play with.

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1 minute ago, Dam8610 said:

They won't do it, but the White Sox should just game the system by promising Rutschman a $9+ million bonus if he tells other teams not to draft him, similar to how the Royals got Brady Singer to fall to 18 last year.

Wat. I don't recall reading anything about the Royals promising Brady Singer money causing him to fall. His stock was wavering most of the season, particularly near the draft. I believe some folks even had Kowar leapfrogging him by draft day.

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37 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Wat. I don't recall reading anything about the Royals promising Brady Singer money causing him to fall. His stock was wavering most of the season, particularly near the draft. I believe some folks even had Kowar leapfrogging him by draft day.

He got nearly $1 million overslot. Maybe KC just decided to do that, but I seem to remember hearing something about certain players going lower than anticipated because certain teams could offer more money.

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4 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

They won't do it, but the White Sox should just game the system by promising Rutschman a $9+ million bonus if he tells other teams not to draft him, similar to how the Royals got Brady Singer to fall to 18 last year. Why not? He's clearly the best player in the draft, and I'd rather underslot the last several rounds and get him than miss out on him and have extra bonus pool to play with.

The money will be spent.

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I love lodolo's motion and his stats are great but just like with bishop I don't like that he only broke out this year.

His freshman and soph year he wasn't bad but really not that special. Are those gains sustainable?

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