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southsider2k5

2019 MLB draft thread

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My bold prediction both Baltimore and KC go under slot. O's with Witt and KC with Lodolo leaving the sox wide open to take Rutschman at 3, the second round pick with be Blake Walston and the third round pick will be Erik Miller.

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I'm not saying I'm betting against the sox taking a college player, but as much as I like the FG draft content, worth noting that they have been quite off in their intel on sox preferences.

We heard mostly about Singer/Swaggerty last year. Felt like we mostly heard about Bukauskus/kendall the year before. 

You'd be crazy to say sox are likely to draft a high schooler, but I don't know. I'm not putting too much stock in idea they would go lodolo yet.

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2 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm not saying I'm betting against the sox taking a college player, but as much as I like the FG draft content, worth noting that they have been quite off in their intel on sox preferences.

We heard mostly about Singer/Swaggerty last year. Felt like we mostly heard about Bukauskus/kendall the year before. 

You'd be crazy to say sox are likely to draft a high schooler, but I don't know. I'm not putting too much stock in idea they would go lodolo yet.

I'm with you on this. I also just don't believe that Baltimore is definitely taking Rutschman. 

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1 minute ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'm with you on this. I also just don't believe that Baltimore is definitely taking Rutschman. 

Why don't you believe this? The timing? You think they are trying to get a good deal on Witt?

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5 minutes ago, bmags said:

Why don't you believe this? The timing? You think they are trying to get a good deal on Witt?

Some of it is timing, yes. I don't think Rutschman gets past Kansas City but I think Mike Elias goes HS. I read Astroball and he was the driving force behind drafting Carlos Correa when nobody else was really on him and then they saved $$ to spend on McCullers. Situation is obviously different in Baltimore but they are so far away. I could see them going with Witt or a diff HS guy for a discount and trying to import more talent into their system that better fits their organizational timeline. 

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8 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Some of it is timing, yes. I don't think Rutschman gets past Kansas City but I think Mike Elias goes HS. I read Astroball and he was the driving force behind drafting Carlos Correa when nobody else was really on him and then they saved $$ to spend on McCullers. Situation is obviously different in Baltimore but they are so far away. I could see them going with Witt or a diff HS guy for a discount and trying to import more talent into their system that better fits their organizational timeline. 

Yeah. I would really like to know if the astros were drafting one now, how much they would value the savings now that its a much less dramatic slot value for first pick (vs when they were at top of draft).

And the other aspect there is still needing to go head to head with AZ who has a war chest. How certain can they be of who they can target with the savings if AZ wants the same player?

Those are the parts where I just don't know if the 1-1.5 million they can save will be valuable enough, but they may also just love a different player. Maybe this guy will fall in love with riley greene or something really dramatically cheaper.

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30 minutes ago, bmags said:

I'm not saying I'm betting against the sox taking a college player, but as much as I like the FG draft content, worth noting that they have been quite off in their intel on sox preferences.

We heard mostly about Singer/Swaggerty last year. Felt like we mostly heard about Bukauskus/kendall the year before. 

You'd be crazy to say sox are likely to draft a high schooler, but I don't know. I'm not putting too much stock in idea they would go lodolo yet.

You aren't the only one who thinks that.  Hostetler seems to like to hide his intentions.

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I like this blurb from FG on LHP Prep Pitcher Blake Walston:

Popup arm in Wilmington, NC area is 6'4 with lots of projection, 17 on draft day and a knockout breaking ball.

Ranked 50 overall and listed as a riser.

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8 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

You aren't the only one who thinks that.  Hostetler seems to like to hide his intentions.

That's because he's too stupid to have any intentions.  

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4 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's because he's too stupid to have any intentions.  

I will never get how people can believe stuff like this, but still waste their time.

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I can see Baltimore cutting a deal with Witt or Abrams. The big issue is Arizona Diamondbacks having 4 picks and $16 million to play with before they get to Baltimore’s 2nd round pick.

Edited by PolishPrince34

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1 minute ago, PolishPrince34 said:

I can see Baltimore cutting a deal with Witt or Abrams. The big issue is Arizona Diamondbacks having 4 picks and $16 million to play before they get to their 2nd round pick.

Right, but AZ could very well go high ticket shopping and get 2-3 players they realllly like but then run a very traditional draft afterward. But with 500k here or there, they could also just clean house on that top prep talent in the typical 20-40 range and get everyone they believe in and outbid any one. 

THey'll be fun to watch. I would bet they don't go overslot for a college first baseman.

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52 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Some of it is timing, yes. I don't think Rutschman gets past Kansas City but I think Mike Elias goes HS. I read Astroball and he was the driving force behind drafting Carlos Correa when nobody else was really on him and then they saved $$ to spend on McCullers. Situation is obviously different in Baltimore but they are so far away. I could see them going with Witt or a diff HS guy for a discount and trying to import more talent into their system that better fits their organizational timeline. 

Baltimore has no real timeline. They are going to be real real bad for the next decade or so. 

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26 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's because he's too stupid to have any intentions.  

I don't know if the guy is stupid, but he does seem way in over his head. 

The Sox have drafted one high school player in the top 5 rounds since Hostetler took over. They are going best college player available at #3 without a doubt. A one-trick pony doesn't just magically turn into a show horse. 

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BA Mock 4.0

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

Gated. Will post the top 10 and the White Sox blurb. Willing to answer any questions as well regarding other players placement.

1.) BAL - Rutschman

2.) KC - Vaughn

3.) CHW - Witt

Quote

Notes:

The White Sox have also leaned toward the college side in recent years, but there’s no obvious player to take of that demographic here with Rutschman and Vaughn off the board. As it stands, the best high school hitter on the board looks to be better than the best college bat remaining. Witt has the best package of raw tools for a hitter in the 2019 class and would perhaps give scouting director Nick Hostetler a reason to go toward the prep ranks.

4.) MIA - Abrams

5.) DET - Greene

6.) SD - Carroll

7.) CIN - Lodolo

8.) TEX - Bishop

9.) ATL - Stott

10.) SFG - Allan

Edited by DirtySox

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Buncha draft stuff from Kiley's chat today. Pulled it out.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-4-10-19/

Quote

Greg

12:24

What did you think about Matthew Alan last night?

Kiley McDaniel

12:26

He was 94-96 t97, with a 60-65 CB and CH only in warmups, then rain hit and he came back more 91-94 with a 60 CB and a little less command. Not the slam dunk top 15 pick type for me specifically, but I'm low on most prep righties and the industry says Allan is the consensus top guy (unless Priester keeps coming on like he did last time out).

12:27

I'm lower on prep RHP since most of them would go way lower with a tick or two less velo (which comes and goes more than you think, often with less than a week of rest it goes down a couple ticks in pro ball) and, obviously, the injury risk. I lean more toward average stuff with some projection/athleticism and grab a few for day one prices altogether.

Quote

Lilith

12:29

If neither Abrams nor Witt go in the top four, is it possible that one would be available for the Reds at 7?

Kiley McDaniel

12:29

Yeah, seems about 50/50 that one of them get there

Quote

Lilith

12:30

How high do you think Bishop can realistically rise in the draft? Is top 5 possible?

Kiley McDaniel

12:30

Sure, sounds like as high as 3 and 4 they are looking for college bats and you could argue he's the 3rd best one

Quote

Kyle

12:31

Kansas City went heavy college last year and you have them linked to Vaughn with their first pick this year also. Do you think they continue that with the picks that follow in the 2nd and 3rd rounds? If so any names they're being linked to?

Kiley McDaniel

12:32

Got a lot of questions about this yesterday. People in the industry think it's better than 50% that if the draft is today, KC takes Vaughn. When you're picking 2nd in a draft with a clear-cut top 2 and everyone below that is scrambling to find guys they like and/or cut deals in the top 10, you just take the best guy.

12:33

Lots of KC fans were shocked that the buzz is their club would consider taking the clear best talent at 2 b/c they tend to take HS players. That doesn't normally matter in this sort of situation and their GM was seen scouting amateurs for the first time in a long time last year...and they took all college players early. Even if that pick is a product of philosophy, I don't think we know what KC is trying to do right now in terms of draft leanings, but I don't think that matters for the first pick.

12:34

More and more, rebuilding teams now have an ETA in mind and build toward that, so I'm guessing that's what going on in KC, but I don't know for sure.

Quote

Steve

12:55

Kiley, you guys stated yesterday that Rutschman and Vaughn right now are in line to go 1-2 and that both Chicago at 3 and Miami at 4 are seriously considering college guys — a development that would allow Witt to drop to Detroit at 5. If this scenario happens, based on what you’ve heard how likely are the Tigers to take Witt? What names have you heard Detroit connected to? Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel

12:56

Guys we talk to still have Abrams ahead of Witt, but any one team may disagree with that. Not clear what's happening outside of the top 4 to anyone, really

Quote

Kap

12:56

Is manoah a top 10 pick?

Kiley McDaniel

12:56

Possible, but I'd guess 11-15

Quote

Logan

12:58

You have Michael Busch listed as a 1B on the board now, and I think he was a RF on there previously. Is this because you now project he’s a 1B only fit? Has the athleticism deteriorated?

Kiley McDaniel

12:59

The corner OF looks were below average, so seems like 1B is more likely now. There's a nonzero chance a club could try him at 2B and do some aggressive shifting around him ala late stages of Daniel Murphy, which I'm very into. I'm told Busch played a little bit of 2B on the Cape.

Quote

Ryan

12:59

What makes Michael Busch a top ten prospect? He seems like a bat first, 1B only and he is hitting under .300 this year... Is Matt Thaiss an accurate comp for him?

Kiley McDaniel

1:00

Thaiss was a 50 raw power guy in college and Busch is a 60 and gets to most of it. I mean look at this swing https://www.instagram.com/p/BwAHFyAgyzp/ Thaiss did not swing like this in college and to a degree still doesn't.

Quote

Dylan

1:06

Would Andrew Vaughn still have been a top-3 pick 5 years ago? Or has the success off other R/R college 1B like Alonso and Hoskins lowered the stigma against that kind of profile?

Kiley McDaniel

1:06

Go look at his numbers. Almost no one has ever done this before.

Quote

SJGator75

1:07

What's the floor for Rutledge in this year's draft? Late day 1?

Kiley McDaniel

1:07

Probably comp round, barring injury

Quote

Matt Damon

1:10

Why is Espino falling!

Kiley McDaniel

1:10

Alright I'll take one more time to be as diplomatic as possible on this. He was 96-100 (give or take, depending on the gun) in his first start at Hoover on March 8th, then I saw him March 21 and he was 92-95 t96. I talked to scouts that saw him the start between those and the start or two after the one I saw and they all said they got the same velo I did.

1:11

As stated earlier, I'm lower on HS RHP in general for the risk of the whole demographic

1:12

Specifically on Espino, there's no projection, a really long arm action, and it's mostly FB/breaker (though he has two breakers) at this point. I think it's a positive for him to be throwing more 92-95 because the odds of blowing out when you sit 98 as a teenager for years at a time gets really close to a certainty, unfortunately by looking at the examples we have of that. When you're looking at teenage pitchers and trying to project 5-10 years in the future what they'll be, health is the biggest factor, so clubs are very particular about how a pitcher does it, thus the drastically varying rankings of HS pitchers bc every team has their own version.

1:15

So, when talking to scouts about how they rank the HS RHP, essentially all of them are throwing 92-95, give or take a tick at this point, and almost all of them flash 55 to 65 breaking balls, so the ones with a little more projection and polish tend to be ahead of Espino. Right now, that top tier is 15 through 40 (Allan, Malone, Priester, Leiter, Espino, Goss, Barco) and some teams will picking in that range will not consider taking some of them due to size, arm action, they don't like HS RHP in general, medical, etc. There's lots of variance in the ranking from team to team, but the guys at the top/middle/bottom of that tier tend to be in that general spot for most clubs.

1:16

And it'll change between here and draft day, I want all of those kids to stay healthy and succeed and get drafted high.

Quote

Pete Davidson

1:22

From a stuff standpoint what are you hearing on Nick Lodolo this year? Is his rise up the boards due more to a combo of performance and lack of college pitching or have any of his pitches (or command) improved from where they were a year ago?

Kiley McDaniel

1:23

Stuff has improved throughout the spring. Opening weekend Eric saw two 60's FB/CB, very few CH and fine but not great command. One recent start a scout told me he was two 60's but it was FB/CH and the command was 50 or 55. Other times he's shown three 6's and 5 command. If he closes strong, he'll go in the top 10.

Quote

#3

1:23

How's Lodolo's velo?

Kiley McDaniel

1:24

92-95, t96, give or take a bit in any given start

 

Edited by DirtySox

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After today's game, fully convinced sox will draft lodolo and all college pitchers.

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Via Keith Law's chat today.

Quote

Mac

1:08

If Rutschman and Vaughn go 1-1 and 1-2 have any college hitters moved into the 1-3 discussion or would the White Sox be choosing between Witt Jr. and Abrams?

Keith Law

1:08

Witt Jr, Abrams, Greene, and possibly Bleday (there's your college hitter) would be the top 6. Lodolo is the only pitcher I can think of who might go top ten, although that's a reach for me.

http://meadowparty.com/blog/2019/04/11/klawchat-4-11-19/

 

Edited by DirtySox
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Bobby Bradley's 40-time

1:25

Do you have any concerns about Vaughn, being a R/R 1B and all, going #2? Or is the bat that freaking good?

Keith Law

1:25

The bat is that fucking good, man.

 

Edited by DirtySox
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More from Law chat.

Quote

Lawl

1:55

Too early for top of the draft rumblings? White Sox have a chance at Vaughn?

Keith Law

1:56

They pick third so yes. If I had to guess - this is a guess, people, not based on much info at all - I'd say picks 1-2-3 were Rutschman, Witt Jr, Vaughn. Maybe then Abrams/Greene in some order, although neither did himself any favors at NHSI with 20+ directors and several GMs in attendance.

 

Edited by DirtySox
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romorr

2:01

Adley is it at 1.1, right?  No getting cute with underslot than overslot?

Keith Law

2:02

Why not? If you could sign Vaughn, save $1MM, and go grab JJ Goss for $3 million at your second pick, wouldn't you do that?

 

Edited by DirtySox
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Are the Royals and Orioles 5 years away from competing again? If so they might be amenable to a draft and trade next year with the Sox. Pick

Rutchman and trade him next June for 3-4 minor leaguers. Catchers usually burn out faster then position players so it might work time line wise.

Edited by zisk
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MLB Pipeline on their latest podcast did a mock top 10. They had the Royals taking Witt Jr and the Sox taking Vaughn. They cited the fact that the Royals just drafted Pratto with their 1st RD pick in 2017 as well as their love for athleticism as reasons for them taking Witt Jr. 

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