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2019 MLB draft thread

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13 minutes ago, Timmy U said:

Relatively speaking, Moniak is a disappointment.  He wasn’t the consensus top high school hitter that year either.  Turns out the consensus knew what they were talking about.  Witt Jr has been a must follow in the class for years.  Waaaaay better track record than Moniak.  Concern is, he is old for his class.  6 months younger, I bet he would be number 1.

You cant be a high schooler and have a way better track record than a #1 pick - regardless of your opinion of him being over drafted. Moniak was the 17th ranked prospect in baseball following his draft so the consensus in the baseball community certainly was not that there were better high schoolers available.

Saying Witt is 2 years away after the draft is crazy. A lot of people dominate high school baseball. I hit 445 my senior year and then proceeded to hit 206 my freshman year at a mid-tier program. Bobby Witt is obviously 100000 times better but projecting a high schoolers adjustment to professional baseball is really hard and expecting him to be up before even his 22nd birthday is ambitious none the less claiming he's as close to the big league as Vaughn (could probably hit mlb pitching today) and Andy just isnt true.

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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17 minutes ago, bmags said:

It's not that crazy. He'd be 19 basically at draft, Jo Addell was in AA last year at 19 (got injured) but could very well have been a 20/21 year old. Assuming HLL doesn't count much of his draft year, 2022 isn't that crazy for a top 3 high school draft pick to make it unless the team didn't want them up.

It would be his third year after the draft, not his second, and even third would be an aggressive projection. 

 

11 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Yep.  Making it to the big leagues at 21 is not a far stretch. Baez and Lindor both debuted at that age.   Gorman and Kelenic are on the path.  

The average first round high school draft pick debuts at 23.5 years old. 

By Lindors 21st birthday he had already player 415 minor league games. 

The path you have Witt on - to get him to the show at 21 to stay - would put him at about half as many games played as Lindor.

Kelenic and Gorman havent even left A ball yet. 

Edited by Look at Ray Ray Run

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27 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You cant be a high schooler and have a way better track record than a #1 pick - regardless of your opinion of him being over drafted. Moniak was the 17th ranked prospect in baseball following his draft so the consensus in the baseball community certainly was not that there were better high schoolers available.

Saying Witt is 2 years away after the draft is crazy. A lot of people dominate high school baseball. I hit 445 my senior year and then proceeded to hit 206 my freshman year at a mid-tier program. Bobby Witt is obviously 100000 times better but projecting a high schoolers adjustment to professional baseball is really hard and expecting him to be up before even his 22nd birthday is ambitious none the less claiming he's as close to the big league as Vaughn (could probably hit mlb pitching today) and Andy just isnt true.

I was speaking about the beginning of the draft process.  In Moniak’s case, all it took was one team, but coming into the year, he was a mid first round type guy and he rose through the process.  One reason: Rutherford was old for the draft class. That matters differently to different teams.  I would have bet the under on Moniak on the day of the draft, and I would bet it now.  Witt has a better track record imho.

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31 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

It would be his third year after the draft, not his second, and even third would be an aggressive projection. 

 

The average first round high school draft pick debuts at 23.5 years old. 

By Lindors 21st birthday he had already player 415 minor league games. 

The path you have Witt on - to get him to the show at 21 to stay - would put him at about half as many games played as Lindor.

Kelenic and Gorman havent even left A ball yet. 

So your take is that by two years, he means literally next year? 

He thinks witt will be a fast riser. Some are. Some aren't allowed to. The argument that some are slower isn't an argument for why he would be.

 

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58 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Yep.  Making it to the big leagues at 21 is not a far stretch. Baez and Lindor both debuted at that age.   Gorman and Kelenic are on the path.  

One thing to say it’s not a stretch, it’s another thing to say it’s the expectation.

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Mock Season is here, although I don't necessarily see it working out like this, I suppose it's interesting to think about nonetheless. 

 

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On 4/23/2019 at 8:35 PM, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

You cant be a high schooler and have a way better track record than a #1 pick - regardless of your opinion of him being over drafted. Moniak was the 17th ranked prospect in baseball following his draft so the consensus in the baseball community certainly was not that there were better high schoolers available.

Saying Witt is 2 years away after the draft is crazy. A lot of people dominate high school baseball. I hit 445 my senior year and then proceeded to hit 206 my freshman year at a mid-tier program. Bobby Witt is obviously 100000 times better but projecting a high schoolers adjustment to professional baseball is really hard and expecting him to be up before even his 22nd birthday is ambitious none the less claiming he's as close to the big league as Vaughn (could probably hit mlb pitching today) and Andy just isnt true.

I agree witt is more than two years away but moniak is not the same prospect as witt is. Moniak was quite a surprise and there were always questions about his power and tools. Reason he was so high he was supposed to have a very advanced hit tool for a hs guy and had a chance to stay at center.

I'm not a fan of picking an advanced, polished hs bat with middling tools, if you want that you can just as well pick a college guy giving you more data and certainty on the player.

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On 4/23/2019 at 1:54 PM, Y2Jimmy0 said:

About a month out and this makes the most sense. Vaughn is a no brainer if available. 

I guess the only ding on the guy is that he's short for a 1B, is that going to be problem?

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Vaughn is listed at 6’0”, but that’s a real stretch. I’d like to comp him to the 5’10” Steve Garvey who compiled 2600 hits and 4 Gold Gloves at 1st base. Cub killer too. 

Edited by Baker
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Video Baseball Scout chimes in with their latest mock here

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From yesterday's Kiley chat. Draft dope.

Quote

12:31

BB&T: Manoah avging 113 ppg over his last 5. At what point does workload begin to hurt the draft position of top 10 College arms?

12:33

Kiley McDaniel: Once a week, 113 isn’t a huge worry if he’s got the stamina to maintain mechanics to around that point. I don’t have studies handy, but over the years I’ve found that the days of rest is a far more important variable than pure pitches. Like 113 pitches everytime isn’t a huge issue for a durable/mature pitcher with 6 days of rest, but it is much more of an issue for a less durable/mature pitcher with 4 days of rest. The clearly an issue for any player with any amount of rest/maturity number is 120+ or so?

Quote

12:39

Lilith: How likely is it that either Abrams or Witt fall all the way to 7 for the Reds?

12:39

Kiley McDaniel: Lets say 15%

Quote

12:40

Tommy N.: Why has Nick Lodolo’s stock risen so far? Is he more of a floor guy vs an upside guy?

12:40

Kiley McDaniel: Flashes three 60 pitches and 55 command at his best, but he’s been not quite that good lately.

Quote

12:41

Lilith: Could you compare Bleday to India and Senzel? Is he better coming out of the draft? Worse? I’m having trouble comparing them given that I don’t know how this class compares to 2018 and 2016.

12:42

Kiley McDaniel: Offensively speaking, Senzel was something like a 60-65 bat, 50-55 game power at draft time, we had India about 50-55 and 55, Bleday is probably 55-60 and 55. Bleday has the least defensive value of the three, but probably the 2nd best bat, so pretty comparable

Quote

12:42

Andy: What’s behind Jerrion Ealy trending down? Will he be a tough sign if he falls out of the first round?

12:43

Kiley McDaniel: Premium athlete, performed okay over the summer, mechanics have been iffy this spring, you’re paying him if, similar to Pache, you like the makeup/athleticism and think you can fix the rest

12:43

Kiley McDaniel: I think there’s some club out there that will meet his price. I would imagine it’s $2M or a bit higher.

Quote

12:43

Hinkie: I like Aaron Shunk a lot.  What is his draft ceiling?  Could he be another Jonathan India … SEC 3Bman with a big junior season who ends up in the top half of the first round?

12:44

Kiley McDaniel: Talked to a few scouts about him last weekend when I was at UGA. chance for 5 hit/power, maybe 6 glove at 3B, some want to try him behind the plate, it’s a poor man’s Matt Chapman if you squint a bit. Both had colleges that didn’t optimize the approach/swing for pro ball, so you have to dream to reach the ceiling more than you’d like for a college player. Schunk likely goes 35-60.

Quote

12:47

Logan: Do you think Manoah sticks as a starter? Does he have the pitches to avoid pronounced platoon splits?

12:48

Kiley McDaniel: It’s a 65 or 70 fastball and breaker, more 45 to 50 CH and command, but that skillset is more valued now than in the past

Quote

12:52

Gary: Looking at your scouting grades for Bleday/Bishop. Seems like the only place Bleday has an advantage is the hit tool (55 v 50) and then a significant advantage with the arm (55 v 35). How much can arm strength play a difference for teams, especially when both guys are locked into corner OF spots anyway?

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: At that high of a pick and for corner OF, arm doesn’t really matter at all. The hit tool grade is really important because 45 means there’s some real chance it’s 35 or 40 and he becomes a platoon player and 55 means Bleday is one of the safer bats in the whole class.

12:53

Kiley McDaniel: Especially for a corner OF because hit tool implies the odds they get to all their raw power are also higher, so 50 vs 55 is a big differece

Quote

12:56

Gutshot: Have you gotten a look at Isaiah Campbell this year and if so, what improvements have you noticed?  Future as a starter or bullpen?

12:57

Kiley McDaniel: Got rained out of the game I was supposed to see him pitch at Auburn, hope I’m able to track him down before the draft. Is moving into 2nd-3rd round contention, + FB, above breaker, more strikes.

Quote

12:58

Logan: Is Will Wilson a realistic option to convert to catcher? Any update on his injury?

12:59

Kiley McDaniel: Sounds like it was some combination of a concussion and/or facial laceration depending on whom you ask. I would imagine he’s back in the next week or so, which I hope is accurate since I’m heading up there to see him soon. Wilson and Schunk are the two guys that I heard clubs saying they want to see catch but haven’t done it before

Quote

12:59

Jim : Can you tell us something about  Doxakis’ or TJ Sikkema’s stuff?

1:00

Kiley McDaniel: Both are solid average stuff and feel, sounds like Sikkema has two 55s and Doxakis has one.

Quote

1:17

Nick: What are the chances Hunter Bishop or Bryson Stott is available at 14 for the Phillies?

1:17

Kiley McDaniel: Bishop 5%, Stott 15%

 

Edited by DirtySox

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Picked out the pertinent questions/responses from Jim Callis' Draft AMA yesterday.

 

Quote

catsfan25

Why Lodolo over Thompson? Does he slide into the top 10?

jcallis3

There are some medical concerns on Thompson dating back to HS, so I think that worries some teams. Lodolo could go in the top 10, Thompson is likely more 11-20 at best.

Quote

blackflash234

Who has the best raw power and the best fastball in this year's draft?

jcallis3

Best raw power is Florida HS 3B Rece Hinds, though he does come with some hittability concerns. Best fastball is Georgia HS RHP Daniel Espino. Espino probably goes in the second half of the first round, though high school righties often drop because the demographic is considered too risky for some clubs in the first round. Hinds may go a little later than that.

Quote

brown_boot

Thoughts on Cavaco, could a team in the top half fall in love and take him early?

jcallis3

Cavaco has some helium but I think his draft ceiling is more late first or supplemental first round.

Quote

brown_boot

What high school arms do you like best? Why?

jcallis3

My top five:

Matthew Allan (Florida)

Brennan Malone (Florida)

Daniel Espino (Georgia)

J.J. Goss (Texas)

Quinn Priester (Illinois)

I might be a tad low on Priester.

Quote

edubs_stl

Do you think Kameron Misner can be a Top 10 pick with the season he's had at Mizzou this year?

jcallis3

Probably not. He might have the best tools and body in the college crop, but his SEC performance has been mostly wretched. I still think he goes in the first round, though, just the top 10 is too rich unless he finishes really strong.

Quote

brown_boot

Long term, who ends up the best bat in this draft?

jcallis3

California 1B Andrew Vaughn is the easy answer. On the HS side, Florida HS OF Riley Greene or Texas HS 3B Brett Baty.

Quote

romorr

Adley for sure 1.1, or if you were running the Orioles, go Vaughn for under, and then go over on a strong college commit? Adley really put a stamp on 1.1 with the increased power. But part of me wants two high end talents at 1.1 and 2.42.

jcallis3

Problem is you might not get someone you covet to fall to 42. Especially with the Diamondbacks picking four times before then and having the biggest pool. Take the best guy at 1-1: Rutschman.

Quote

brown_boot

Corbin Caroll’s size/frame bother you at all?

jcallis3

Slightly, more in that some questions about how much impact will be in the bat might preclude me from wanting him in the top 10 picks. But not too much that I wouldn't want to take him right after that. He can really hit, run and defend in CF.

Quote

brown_boot

Biggest dark horse candidate to sneak into the top 6?

jcallis3

Again, it's early for much concrete knowledge and a lot can change between now and June 3. Not sure he's a true dark horse, but West Virginia RHP Alek Manoah is on fire right now and climbing draft boards. He's probably the lowest-rated guy at present I can see jumping into the top 6, but he's not rated too low.

Quote

otter8863

Who are the top LHPs in this year's draft?

jcallis3

My top five, in order:

Nick Lodolo, Texas Christian

Zack Thompson, Kentucky

Hunter Barco, HS/Florida

John Doxakis, Texas A&M

T.J. Sikkema, Missouri

There's good LHP depth this year, especially on the college side compared to the RHP.

Quote

brown_boot

How worried are you about Witts hit tool?

jcallis3

Not too worried. I'd take him at No. 2 overall. There was some swing and miss on the showcase circuit last summer, but he also played in every single event he could and might have been a bit worn down. I cringe when I look at the 45 Hit grade I gave him on our original Draft Top 50 -- I was trying to confirm that was a concern relative to his other tools, but that's too harsh. We'll upgrade that when we update the list. Most of the scouts I've talked to give him a future 60 grade, which might be a bit generous but shows you that they're not real worried about it.

 

Edited by DirtySox

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Just now, bmags said:

witt witt witt.

Hah. I knew the response to that question would stir a response. Waiting for Harold too. Luckily he won't make it to 3 for the White Sox to pass on him. :P

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Bleday has not looked good at all the last two nights when I've watched him.  This man, on the other hand.....

 

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2 hours ago, fathom said:

Bleday has not looked good at all the last two nights when I've watched him.  This man, on the other hand.....

 

I've never wanted for some classic MLB Draft stupidity more than this one.

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Lodolo with another meh start yesterday against Baylor. 5.2 IP 4 H 2 ER 2 BB 3 SO. 110 pitches.

Manoah was solid yesterday. Not otherworldly like his previous few starts though. 7.0 IP 7 H 1 ER 2 BB 8 SO. 124 pitches.

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1 minute ago, Whitesox27 said:

Let's say Rutschman and Vaughn go 1 and 2. Who do you guys think the Sox would take in that scenario? 

Not Witt. Because White Sox. They will take one of the next tier of college bats. Bleday/Bishop.

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2 minutes ago, DirtySox said:

Not Witt. Because White Sox.

So sad, so true. I'm still hoping Hostetler keeps on with his word about lack of high school talent in our org and convinces the masses this is the way to go. 

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23 minutes ago, Whitesox27 said:

Let's say Rutschman and Vaughn go 1 and 2. Who do you guys think the Sox would take in that scenario? 

I think they would take Witt. Gut feeling. 

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