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2019 MLB draft thread

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12 minutes ago, sox71 said:

I still believe Abrams is only an option of Vaughn has already been selected.  

I understand the apprehension but Pipeline, BA, and FG all have the Sox taking Abrams now and Law was the first one to say Kenny Williams was fond of him. All signs seem to point to Abrams at this juncture. 

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Is Vaughn suffering from prospect fatigue or are teams truly hesitant to pick a 1B only? That not on Vaughn makes it seem like he could easily slide even past Detroit.

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5 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

Is Vaughn suffering from prospect fatigue or are teams truly hesitant to pick a 1B only? That not on Vaughn makes it seem like he could easily slide even past Detroit.

I think in the case of the White Sox, the lack of success with wood bats and on the US National Team is likely a factor. I think it's also smart to select up the middle athletes with premium picks. 

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7 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

Is Vaughn suffering from prospect fatigue or are teams truly hesitant to pick a 1B only? That not on Vaughn makes it seem like he could easily slide even past Detroit.

He's suffering from being a very limited player.  He has to end up in the Hall of Very Good to justify a pick this high and that's too much to put on any player regardless of how good his college bat may be.

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6 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I think in the case of the White Sox, the lack of success with wood bats and on the US National Team is likely a factor. I think it's also smart to select up the middle athletes with premium picks. 

 

2 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

He's suffering from being a very limited player.  He has to end up in the Hall of Very Good to justify a pick this high and that's too much to put on any player regardless of how good his college bat may be.

I'm not all the way sold on Vaughn myself due to position and limited ceiling but the idea of Abrams thriving in this org is almost as much of a crapshoot currently. Looks like he's their guy though.

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The plus to Abrams is if Vaughn started to struggle in AA his value absolutely craters.

Jorge Mateo kept decent value through his struggles because of the speed and position, and now at age 24 has found some really nice power. This year he has 9 triples and 4 homers already in AAA and is slashing .329/.368/.567.

Abrams needs to tap into power through both physical projection and swing changes, but even if he doesn't he would still be valuable either in trade or production.

And if he does accomplish power he would be one of the best in the game.

Still prefer witt, who has power now, but Abrams would be so exciting to have in the system that is so devoid of his type of skillset and most of all, projection.

And if he fails others would have failed too. 

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31 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I understand the apprehension but Pipeline, BA, and FG all have the Sox taking Abrams now and Law was the first one to say Kenny Williams was fond of him. All signs seem to point to Abrams at this juncture. 

If it were possible to bet on such things, I think Abrams would be the favorite for the Sox pick, at this point.

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13 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

 

I'm not all the way sold on Vaughn myself due to position and limited ceiling but the idea of Abrams thriving in this org is almost as much of a crapshoot currently. Looks like he's their guy though.

Yes I agree with this. I'm not sure we can even worry about it. Bad Player dev would kill pretty much any prospect aside from a guy like Casey Mize.

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1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

3. White Sox – C.J. Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity HS (GA)
Vaughn seemed tailor made for the White Sox here given how talented he is, and Chicago’s recent preference for college bats with high picks, but Abrams seems to be in the lead now. Sources have told us that heavy-hitting White Sox personnel have seen Abrams a combined five or six times recently. Since Abrams would likely slide to the sixth pick if he doesn’t go third, there may be some pool money saved here (about $1.5 million based on the gap in slot between this pick and the sixth). That money would go a long ways toward tempting another mid-first round, high-upside prep talent to the White Sox next pick at 45, as the savings plus their overage would be a late-teen’s value slot.

This process is correct and it makes me happy. Regardless of whether they are bad talent evaluators, if they value Abrams >= Vaughn, but can get him cheaper, they should do it. The lack of college pitching means that all other profiles are getting dragged forward. This would allow them to get the players they like with the first and second picks. Like getting Abrams and Seth Johnson would be an infusion of plus tools into the org with high ceilings. If they fail they fail.

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23 minutes ago, TheTruth05 said:

 

I'm not all the way sold on Vaughn myself due to position and limited ceiling but the idea of Abrams thriving in this org is almost as much of a crapshoot currently. Looks like he's their guy though.

The driveline study and results generally we've seen from the White Sox player development staff speaks for itself. Most prospects would be better off going to orgs besides the White Sox. But they did turn Tim Anderson (who was more raw & less heralded than Abrams) into an above average SS.

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I don't hate the idea of taking Abrams. I suspect the big question on the Sox's minds is what the power potential is. This has to be the hardest thing to project with a beanpole 18 year old. Kid has high upside as a defensive player and not a lot of risk — worst case is he's a 2B, CF, or he fills out and plays 3B which hopefully means he's finding more power. Seems like his hit tool is not terribly risky...very unlikely to end up struggling due to contact issues. Needs development, but he's not super raw, just young.

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11 minutes ago, bmags said:

The plus to Abrams is if Vaughn started to struggle in AA his value absolutely craters.

Jorge Mateo kept decent value through his struggles because of the speed and position, and now at age 24 has found some really nice power. This year he has 9 triples and 4 homers already in AAA and is slashing .329/.368/.567.

Abrams needs to tap into power through both physical projection and swing changes, but even if he doesn't he would still be valuable either in trade or production.

And if he does accomplish power he would be one of the best in the game.

Still prefer witt, who has power now, but Abrams would be so exciting to have in the system that is so devoid of his type of skillset and most of all, projection.

And if he fails others would have failed too. 

I know it is cynical of me, but part of the solace I would take if the Sox drafted Abrams is that his prospect value could be leveraged in a trade next year, or even this winter, for an established MLB player Kelenic-style. The Sox don't have many high upside guys like that, so it would be nice to have that as an option. And it could be accomplished before his actual minor league performance becomes a factor one way or the other.

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4 minutes ago, Buehrlesque said:

I know it is cynical of me, but part of the solace I would take if the Sox drafted Abrams is that his prospect value could be leveraged in a trade next year, or even this winter, for an established MLB player Kelenic-style. The Sox don't have many high upside guys like that, so it would be nice to have that as an option. And it could be accomplished before his actual minor league performance becomes a factor one way or the other.

TBH I hoped that our draft picks last year and this year were more of the asset variety than necessary. But Madrigals kinda necessary to hit now, and abrams may as well with all of our outfielders cratering.

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A few months ago, before this current high school season started, I read that Abrams had a better hit tool than Witt.  Is that accurate and still believed to be true?

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1 hour ago, sox71 said:

I still believe Abrams is only an option of Vaughn has already been selected.  

And in that scenario, you also have Witt or Rushcman there as well.

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I really think it’s possible Adley falls to 3. With that said, if the Sox do pick Abrams, they better be willing to spend for offensive upgrades the next few years for the big league team.

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1 minute ago, SoxBlanco said:

A few months ago, before this current high school season started, I read that Abrams had a better hit tool than Witt.  Is that accurate and still believed to be true?

No that was never true.  Someone somewhere said Jr had too much swing and miss so all the writers ran with it. Jr never had too much swing and miss. Not that Abrams hit tool is bad but he's not as advanced a hitter as Jr.

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4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

A few months ago, before this current high school season started, I read that Abrams had a better hit tool than Witt.  Is that accurate and still believed to be true?

Yes, but witt has more present and likely future power and is still awesome.

The issue is if Abrams can find his power, and if he can grow into a more powerful frame. But he makes good contact, and considering he's fast as hell, that's good.

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17 minutes ago, fathom said:

I really think it’s possible Adley falls to 3. With that said, if the Sox do pick Abrams, they better be willing to spend for offensive upgrades the next few years for the big league team.

Remember @fathom, the money will be spent.  😀

I actually think they need more SP than even offense.  Unless Cease and Kopech are going to come in like gangbusters.

Edited by BFirebird

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15 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

No that was never true.

 

15 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yes

Alrighty then...that settles it.  Thanks! 

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Just now, SoxBlanco said:

 

Alrighty then...that settles it.  Thanks! 

Yes, you definitely read that. It was from a fangraphs chat. But I don't know how meaningful a difference it is, and witt's approach is mature.

If you are using it as a barometer of Abrams hit tool, Abrams makes good contact but hasn't tapped into more power. Sometimes reading people I think they see raw and don't see a difference between cabera weaver and abrams.

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2 minutes ago, bmags said:

Yes, you definitely read that. It was from a fangraphs chat. But I don't know how meaningful a difference it is, and witt's approach is mature.

If you are using it as a barometer of Abrams hit tool, Abrams makes good contact but hasn't tapped into more power. Sometimes reading people I think they see raw and don't see a difference between cabera weaver and abrams.

Thanks. I just found this from Kiley McDaniel...

Quote

Kiley McDaniel: Witt now is seen as the more polished of the two between him and Abrams because he’s closer to what he needs to be stylistically, whereas Abrams is faster and a superior athlete but could stand to have some tweaks to his game. It’s kinda unusual for the projected hit tool to be higher on the guy (Abrams) who is seen as more raw/needing more work, but that’s where we are.

 

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4 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

Thanks. I just found this from Kiley McDaniel...

 

yeah that's a good explanation. Gets to the idea that hit tool is probably too simplistic to describe the many traits it's consolidating.

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Aren’t we talking of a Dee Gordon type player if his power doesn’t develop?

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