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2019 MLB draft thread

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6 minutes ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

That's not the scenario he described.  He's talking about a player that was already selected in the draft and just offer him slot.  That player still has the option to go back to school.   

Well that just sounds like the situation that already exists. That's why I'm not sure this is a gamechanger, but I hope that it provides a softer landing for specifically prep pitchers who get inconclusive physicals and want more than to risk it at a college / juco.

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Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

Carter Stewart's deal, which was first reported by @Ken_Rosenthal, is expected to be finalized at the end of May. It is a fascinating story, one that could potentially pave a path for American amateurs to reach free agency at a far younger age than usual. More details soon @ESPN.

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11 hours ago, Harold's Leg Lift said:

Jeff Passan@JeffPassan

Carter Stewart's deal, which was first reported by @Ken_Rosenthal, is expected to be finalized at the end of May. It is a fascinating story, one that could potentially pave a path for American amateurs to reach free agency at a far younger age than usual. More details soon @ESPN.

Can somebody explain to me like I'm 5 how this would change the FA clock?  

Unless this means you come into the league from Japan or wherever at age 23,24,25 for your first MLB contract. 

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12 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

Can somebody explain to me like I'm 5 how this would change the FA clock?  

Unless this means you come into the league from Japan or wherever at age 23,24,25 for your first MLB contract. 

Well you would be talking about age 25, because that's the age requirement for an international player to come over and not be tied to international spending caps.

For  a HS pitcher though, they would get the 2-3 million in the draft, likely best case is to be in the minors until 22, likely after the innings point to which they'd have 7 years control. So they'd make decent money in arb, say around $20-$25 million, but not cash in until before their age 29 season, most likely.

This would allow them to get a bigger pay day upfront (7 million), and if all goes well look to come back at age 25, slightly depressed by a posting fee, but still much more likely to out earn your arbitration numbers.

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JJ Cooper on twitter:

 

1. Carter Stewart's next 6 years an approximation. Japan: 6 year, $7 million. Stays in US. Optimistically let's say he's an early 2nd round pick. $2 million bonus. 2019: $2 million+$3,500 in salary. 2020: Let's say LoA. $6,500 in salary. 2021: HiA/AA. $8,100 in salary. (Cont.)

2. 2022: AA/AAA: $10,000 in salary 2023: MLB: $575K 2024: MLB: $600K Next 6 years in Japan: $7 million, returns as MLB free agent. Next 6 years in U.S.: Earns $3.2-$3.5 million. Will likely be arb eligible (under current CBA system) in 2025.

3. And I should make clear. According to

's reporting that's $7 million he gets in the contract to go to the NPB (over six years). My hypothetical earnings for him in the U.S. depend on how he plays. Gets a signing bonus at draft time, but nothing else is guaranteed.

 

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Feels like all of the prep pitchers that were late round 1/round 2 have been getting moved up more and more.

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19 minutes ago, bmags said:

Well you would be talking about age 25, because that's the age requirement for an international player to come over and not be tied to international spending caps.

For  a HS pitcher though, they would get the 2-3 million in the draft, likely best case is to be in the minors until 22, likely after the innings point to which they'd have 7 years control. So they'd make decent money in arb, say around $20-$25 million, but not cash in until before their age 29 season, most likely.

This would allow them to get a bigger pay day upfront (7 million), and if all goes well look to come back at age 25, slightly depressed by a posting fee, but still much more likely to out earn your arbitration numbers.

You could just take a 3 or 4 year deal for example and come over after your international contract is up, no?  Aren't they only allowed to post a certain amount of guys a year?

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1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

You could just take a 3 or 4 year deal for example and come over after your international contract is up, no?  Aren't they only allowed to post a certain amount of guys a year?

You would be subject to international signing restrictions prior to age 25, which cap your total bonus and put you under the traditional 6 year control. It's unlikely you could get much more than 5$ million, so you'd be getting $12 million total but really not that big of an advantage over just staying in US.

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I don't know a lot about this stuff and have never really payed attention to it so forgive me, I'm just curious.

Even if your contract was over with some Japanese team you would still fall under an international signing if you are under 25?

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3 minutes ago, bmags said:

You would be subject to international signing restrictions prior to age 25, which cap your total bonus and put you under the traditional 6 year control. It's unlikely you could get much more than 5$ million, so you'd be getting $12 million total but really not that big of an advantage over just staying in US.

I mean, this does discount some more guaranteed money but if you survived 4 years as a quality pitcher, I don't know how many would want to come over at that point vs. gambling more and waiting since they did already get $7 mill. Going for $5 at that point really caps career earnings.

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1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I don't know a lot about this stuff and have never really payed attention to it so forgive me, I'm just curious.

Even if your contract was over with some Japanese team you would still fall under an international signing if you are under 25?

I may be confused by your question, but if you signed with an MLB team, yes. I don't believe being a "free agent" so to speak not under contract affects that.

But obviously he could re-up for the japan team for more money.

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It would be awesome  if more players did this. Well, probably not from a baseball standpoint, but from a 'I don't like the old rich guys who run baseball teams'  stand point. 

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1 hour ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I don't know a lot about this stuff and have never really payed attention to it so forgive me, I'm just curious.

Even if your contract was over with some Japanese team you would still fall under an international signing if you are under 25?

If you are under 25 and/or haven't played 6 professional seasons, then you are under the international bonus pool caps just like all the 16 year old latin american players.

The interesting part is that if Stewart is under contract for 6 years, then he should be a 25 year old free agent that is not restricted to the pool amounts and I do not believe he would have to be posted or have teams pay a release because he would already be a free agent. So that would make him a 25 year old free agent pitcher. Teams would probably be willing to pay pretty good money for that.

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5 minutes ago, mqr said:

It would be awesome  if more players did this. Well, probably not from a baseball standpoint, but from a 'I don't like the old rich guys who run baseball teams'  stand point. 

But what about the poor rich baseball owners?

Congress even passed a bill for them called the "Save America's Pastime Act" that let them continue to pay under minimum wage! 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/congress-save-americas-pastime-act-would-allow-teams-to-pay-minor-leaguers-less-than-minimum-wage/

It's their patriotic duty to accept less money.

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After reading on him I changed my mind.  I would hate that pick at #3.

 

I just hope Adley some how falls to us.

Edited by BackDoorBreach

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Do any of you have the new Baseball America top Draft rankings and scouting reports? I just received an email, informing me that they have a new report, however I don't subscribe.

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31 minutes ago, BackDoorBreach said:

After reading on him I changed my mind.  I would hate that pick at #3.

 

I just hope Adley some how falls to us.

Saw a UCLA/Ore St game in person earlier this year where Adley hit 2 homers - yeah that's what I'm hoping for too

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4 hours ago, Sleepy Harold said:

Some Hostetler quotes from today:

 

Hostetler is in over his head. He would take a mulligan if offered on every single one of his round 1 & 2 draft picks since he took over. 

The guy is running the Sox farm into the ground. It is time for some new blood in the draft room. 

Edited by OneDog847

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30 minutes ago, OneDog847 said:

Hostetler is in over his head. He would take a mulligan if offered on every single one of his round 1 & 2 draft picks since he took over. 

The guy is running the Sox farm into the ground. It is time for some new blood in the draft room. 

Almost every single team would take a mulligan on their first two picks.... That's the beauty of hindsight..

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17 minutes ago, cjgalloway said:

Almost every single team would take a mulligan on their first two picks.... That's the beauty of hindsight..

Yeah but Hostetler has blindsight

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