How eventful will be this years deadline?

[Bob Sacamano]

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Normally i'd agree, but his free agency is looming, and they'll lose him when they can't afford to(beginning of contention window) and it should be better to maximize value via trade in 2019, after he proves his performance and health. 

Looming? We have him for another 3 years.

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, soxfan2014 said:

Looming? We have him for another 3 years.

I know we have him for another three years, but what I meant by that is when the contention window opens, he'll be in his walk year. I don't think they'll be ready to take that step until 2021. I'm expecting another top 10-15 pick in 2020. I'd peg them for 74 to 78 wins next year, and then 78 to 84 wins in 2020. 

[ChiSox59]

3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

I know we have him for another three years, but what I meant by that is when the contention window opens, he'll be in his walk year. I don't think they'll be ready to take that step until 2021. I'm expecting another top 10-15 pick in 2020. I'd peg them for 74 to 78 wins next year, and then 78 to 84 wins in 2020. 

If we're still sub .500 in 2020, we're not in a terribly good place.  

I think the Sox plan to hold onto Rodon.  If it becomes obvious a year from now that this team is still a couple years away, and Rodon has been good, at that point you can assess dealing him.  Right now, let's just get a healthy and productive rest of the season under his belt. 

[Jack Parkman]

2 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

If we're still sub .500 in 2020, we're not in a terribly good place.  

I think the Sox plan to hold onto Rodon.  If it becomes obvious a year from now that this team is still a couple years away, and Rodon has been good, at that point you can assess dealing him.  Right now, let's just get a healthy and productive rest of the season under his belt. 

I agree for the most part, but it doesn't hurt to let teams know you're willing to listen. That doesn't mean Hahn has to pull the trigger now, unless he gets an offer he can't refuse. I honestly don't think Sale gets traded in the offseason of 2016-17 if they weren't listening at the TDL. 

Edited June 12, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Y2Jimmy0]

I'm expecting Jones, Soria and Avilan to all get moved. Jones needs to pitch a bit better but Hahn will blow another hole in that bullpen. Guys like Cedeno, Shields and Santiago bring back nothing but yeah sure why not? I think Abreu gets talked about a ton but they ultimately don't move him. Leury Garcia and Avisail Garcia are the two wild cards IMO. 

[fathom]

17 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'm expecting Jones, Soria and Avilan to all get moved. Jones needs to pitch a bit better but Hahn will blow another hole in that bullpen. Guys like Cedeno, Shields and Santiago bring back nothing but yeah sure why not? I think Abreu gets talked about a ton but they ultimately don't move him. Leury Garcia and Avisail Garcia are the two wild cards IMO. 

I think Yolmer and Davidson are the wild cards

[greg775]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

I'm expecting Jones, Soria and Avilan to all get moved. Jones needs to pitch a bit better but Hahn will blow another hole in that bullpen. Guys like Cedeno, Shields and Santiago bring back nothing but yeah sure why not? I think Abreu gets talked about a ton but they ultimately don't move him. Leury Garcia and Avisail Garcia are the two wild cards IMO. 

I think it's safe to say you will get little to NOTHING for Jones, Soria and Avilan (I mean get real) and nothing for Shields and very little for Santiago. These are not stars, folks. Who the hell is going to ship us anything for these guys. I mean if you released Soria, Shields and Santiago would anybody want them?? Would anybody even want Jones and his funky delivery and certainty to be hurt again if he's used a lot? Why mess with that??  I don't know nuff about Avilan or Cedeno to have an opinion.

[ChiSox59]

1 hour ago, greg775 said:

I think it's safe to say you will get little to NOTHING for Jones, Soria and Avilan (I mean get real) and nothing for Shields and very little for Santiago. These are not stars, folks. Who the hell is going to ship us anything for these guys. I mean if you released Soria, Shields and Santiago would anybody want them?? Would anybody even want Jones and his funky delivery and certainty to be hurt again if he's used a lot? Why mess with that??  I don't know nuff about Avilan or Cedeno to have an opinion.

Do you know enough about anything White Sox related to have an opinion?

[Jack Parkman]

1 minute ago, raBBit said:

There is in no way enough information to make these kind of projections at this point in time.  

Well obviously, but based on what we know now, that's where I'd put them. 

[Y2Jimmy0]

 

2 hours ago, greg775 said:

I think it's safe to say you will get little to NOTHING for Jones, Soria and Avilan (I mean get real) and nothing for Shields and very little for Santiago. These are not stars, folks. Who the hell is going to ship us anything for these guys. I mean if you released Soria, Shields and Santiago would anybody want them?? Would anybody even want Jones and his funky delivery and certainty to be hurt again if he's used a lot? Why mess with that??  I don't know nuff about Avilan or Cedeno to have an opinion.

Greg, you have no idea what you are talking about. Soria and Avilan have been really good this year. You won't get top level prospects but you'll definitely get something useful. Jones needs to pitch better but I still think they move him for solid return. 

[Jack Parkman]

7 minutes ago, raBBit said:

With that said, I project 100 wins for 2019 and 105 for 2020.

C'mon, what I meant is that is what the trajectory that I see them on is. This is ridiculous and you know it. Of course nobody knows who's going to be on the team, get injured, etc. 

Edited June 12, 2018 by Jack Parkman

[Lip Man 1]

15 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Unless you count "internal" extensions for Buehrle, Contreras, Ordonez, Konerko, Danks, etc.

I guess we can certainly say we haven't given out boatloads of $100+ million extensions...but we've been very smart about guys like Eaton, Sale, Q and now Tim Anderson (creating surplus value.)

We potentially were in similar situations with Crede and Jenks but injuries derailed their careers before extensions could be signed (luckily, for the Sox.)

Caul: I'd be curious, don't know if this is possible, to know how many of Boras clients signed extensions before they were to hit the free agent market. I'm assuming that didn't happen often. My premise is that regardless of what Rodoin does in the next few years it will be Boras' intention to have him hit the market and not sign any extensions.

If he is doing well and hits the market as I speculated he'll be out of the Sox price range (unless new ownership is in place). He may be willing to sign an extension if he isn't doing so well but again, why would the Sox want to sign him if he's not producing?

I'm guessing it would take an unusual set of circumstances to have Boras agree to an extension with the Sox especially for a highly drafted pitcher but we'll see. Maybe if the team has turned it around in two years and is winning, Rodon may want to stay

[greg775]

1 hour ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

 

Greg, you have no idea what you are talking about. Soria and Avilan have been really good this year. You won't get top level prospects but you'll definitely get something useful. Jones needs to pitch better but I still think they move him for solid return. 

Soria is still Soria. I just can't see any GM risking bringing him aboard. He can become miserable again in an instant. Jones? Why would a team want to mess with his injury-prone-ness? They might take him if we release him but why trade for Nate Jones? Makes little sense for a contender. Finally Avilan? I guess I'll succumb and trust you he's worth something.

[ron883]

1 minute ago, greg775 said:

Soria is still Soria. I just can't see any GM risking bringing him aboard. He can become miserable again in an instant. Jones? Why would a team want to mess with his injury-prone-ness? They might take him if we release him but why trade for Nate Jones? Makes little sense for a contender. Finally Avilan? I guess I'll succumb and trust you he's worth something.

I can see one of those pitchers being throw ins to sweeten the pot if/when Jose is traded

[SoxBlanco]

4 hours ago, raBBit said:

I think it's ridiculous to make projections based off of information that's largely incomplete. They are 29th in payroll with ~$25 million coming off the books of players that aren't really good. They also have a top 3 farm system. There are a million different scenarios that could play out between between now and opening day 2019 let alone opening day 2020. To act as if you could make a reasonable projection for 2020 is pretty ridiculous.

It's like Tom Skilling projected the forecast for the last week of May during the first week of April.  

My buddy is having a BBQ on Labor Day this year, but I declined the invitation because it’s supposed to rain that day. Hopefully there’s something good on TV that I can catch. 

[greg775]

3 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

I can see one of those pitchers being throw ins to sweeten the pot if/when Jose is traded

At least you are saying if/when and not demanding a deal.

[ron883]

14 minutes ago, greg775 said:

At least you are saying if/when and not demanding a deal.

I strongly prefer he be dealt. No half assing the rebuild. Get rid of.him for the right deal.

[FT35]

16 hours ago, greg775 said:

I think it's safe to say you will get little to NOTHING for Jones, Soria and Avilan (I mean get real) and nothing for Shields and very little for Santiago. These are not stars, folks. Who the hell is going to ship us anything for these guys. I mean if you released Soria, Shields and Santiago would anybody want them?? Would anybody even want Jones and his funky delivery and certainty to be hurt again if he's used a lot? Why mess with that??  I don't know nuff about Avilan or Cedeno to have an opinion.

Typically if you have a contender at the deadline, they have plenty of stars already.  For evey team looking to land an impact player, there is another looking for smaller pieces who could fill holes.  Obviously there are mega stars who could be available and they would make a larger impact, but don't underestimate the impact that a few "upgrades" could make to an already contending team.

[steveno89]

11 minutes ago, FT35 said:

Typically if you have a contender at the deadline, they have plenty of stars already.  For evey team looking to land an impact player, there is another looking for smaller pieces who could fill holes.  Obviously there are mega stars who could be available and they would make a larger impact, but don't underestimate the impact that a few "upgrades" could make to an already contending team.

Especially considering how expensive elite bullpen help can be at the deadline. If we eat some salary, Soria should be pretty easy to move. 

Jones and Avilan could bring something interesting back as well. Nothing we trade will land us top prospects, but I'm in favor of continuing to build up the farm. 

[turnin' two]

20 hours ago, greg775 said:

I think it's safe to say you will get little to NOTHING for Jones, Soria and Avilan (I mean get real) and nothing for Shields and very little for Santiago. These are not stars, folks. Who the hell is going to ship us anything for these guys. I mean if you released Soria, Shields and Santiago would anybody want them?? Would anybody even want Jones and his funky delivery and certainty to be hurt again if he's used a lot? Why mess with that??  I don't know nuff about Avilan or Cedeno to have an opinion.

Yeah, I mean.   I agree.  There are no teams that could be helped these relievers.   Soria, has been embarrassing, barely K-ing more than 10/ 9 IP.  And walking, almost 2!  What a bum!  

And don't get me started on Avilan.  Again, can't even K 11 guys per 9.  And holding lefties to an OPS below .700??? Pathetic.  Not useful at all.

 

They won't get as good of a return as Herrera, but these are useful guys, even on a good team.

Edited June 13, 2018 by turnin' two

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

If the bullpen can stay as hot as they have been maybe the Sox can finagle a decent prospect by packaging a few of them together. Unfortunately it's a long way to the trade deadline giving the BP plenty of time to be bad again. That's just the life of relievers ,

There are reasons the Sox have played very close to .500 ball over the last 29 games and it's mostly the bullpen while dumping Fulmer and the emergence of Covey.

[southsider2k5]

14 minutes ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:

If the bullpen can stay as hot as they have been maybe the Sox can finagle a decent prospect by packaging a few of them together. Unfortunately it's a long way to the trade deadline giving the BP plenty of time to be bad again. That's just the life of relievers ,

There are reasons the Sox have played very close to .500 ball over the last 29 games and it's mostly the bullpen while dumping Fulmer and the emergence of Covey.

The starters going deeper into games takes a ton of stress off of the pen, and it shows.  While the pen isn't as good as they have been lately,  they also aren't as bad as they were. 

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

The starters going deeper into games takes a ton of stress off of the pen, and it shows.  While the pen isn't as good as they have been lately,  they also aren't as bad as they were. 

I mentioned this in yesterday's game thread. I don't see it as a coincidence that the Sox are 12-13 since demoting Fulmer (11-29 before then). Replacing just that one guy in the rotation with someone pitching like an ace has a domino effect on the rest of the staff and team. Fulmer's 8+ ERA was atrocious but equally damaging was the fact that he averaged less than 4 innings per start this year. That puts a ton of stress on the bullpen covering for a guy like that every fifth game especially when they are usually doing the same, to a lesser degree, for Giolito starts.

[southsider2k5]

6 minutes ago, JUSTgottaBELIEVE said:

I mentioned this in yesterday's game thread. I don't see it as a coincidence that the Sox are 12-13 since demoting Fulmer (11-29 before then). Replacing just that one guy in the rotation with someone pitching like an ace has a domino effect on the rest of the staff and team. Fulmer's 8+ ERA was atrocious but equally damaging was the fact that he averaged less than 4 innings per start this year. That puts a ton of stress on the bullpen covering for a guy like that every fifth game especially when they are usually doing the same, to a lesser degree, for Giolito starts.

Fulmer is a piece of that.  Giolito has started working later, as has Shields.

[JUSTgottaBELIEVE]

4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Fulmer is a piece of that.  Giolito has started working later, as has Shields.

Yea, Gio has definitely been working deeper into games in more recent outings. Shields hasn't been a problem at all this year. He's worked at least 5 innings every start this year.