Fangraphs Top 131 Prospects List

[steveno89]

2 hours ago, bmags said:

They listed him as a 1b, and there is only one other 1b ahead of him. That ranking is a pretty nice recommendation of his bat.

I have yet to hear a definitive update on how Collins has looked defensively in 2018. are we looking at a 40% chance he sticks at catcher? Worse? 

Right now I'm considering him to be our likely 1B/DH of the future until I hear a more positive review of his defense. He still remains our best likely shot at a starting catcher in the system. 

[Jake]

5 hours ago, credezcrew24 said:

I cannot understand how anyone could place a moderately successful pre-Tommy John reliever (Burdi) before a very successful post-Tommy John starter (Cease)

Well Burdi has a track record of basically unmatched stuff and was dominating AAA (albeit with a lot of walks) at an age where Cease is at high-A. It's a hard comparison to make but if FG basically treats Cease as a reliever then they see a guy with slightly inferior stuff who is at a much lower level than the ones where Burdi looked like a potential MLB closer of the future.

[turnin' two]

6 minutes ago, Jake said:

Well Burdi has a track record of basically unmatched stuff and was dominating AAA (albeit with a lot of walks) at an age where Cease is at high-A. It's a hard comparison to make but if FG basically treats Cease as a reliever then they see a guy with slightly inferior stuff who is at a much lower level than the ones where Burdi looked like a potential MLB closer of the future.

In my opinion, it also shows a bit of hubris to rate him as a reliever at high-A, when he is starting, and dominating.  It is ok if they see him as a reliever, but at some point his results as a starter should start to matter.  Maybe that is the AA level.  

[DirtySox]

52 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

I have yet to hear a definitive update on how Collins has looked defensively in 2018. are we looking at a 40% chance he sticks at catcher? Worse? 

Right now I'm considering him to be our likely 1B/DH of the future until I hear a more positive review of his defense. He still remains our best likely shot at a starting catcher in the system. 

Kiley/Eric over at Fangraphs think he's going to be a Carlos Santana type at best.

[Dominikk85]

17 hours ago, daggins said:

I think Eric and Kiley have said in the past they don't view Cease as a starter due to delivery and control concerns, but people said that about Kopech and he's #15, so IDK.

 

Adolfo has better tools and performance than Rutherford or Basabe, so that makes sense. The arm injury isn't as much of a concern due to his position. They were high on Keston Hiura after the draft IIRC.

kopech has some reliever risk too but his stuff is so dominant that it could play with less than ideal control (say like Yu darvish) plus also his relief floor (unless he gets hurt) is elite closer which still is like a 50-55 FV.

cease had more injury problems and he could become a very good reliever too but probably not chapman/kimbrel good which kopech could be if starting doesn't work.

[Dominikk85]

15 hours ago, TaylorStSox said:

Collins ranking kind of puzzles me. If he can catch up to big league fastballs, which every indication says "yes," you're looking at a floor of a 10 year career, even at 1st base. Basically, he'll have a longer career than 90% of the other guys on that last. 

a 50 FV is pretty good for a 1b/DH prospect. 50 FV means league average player in their prime and with 1B you have to hit above average (around a 110-115 wRC+ to be a league average player due to the positional adjustment.

 

If collins hits .250/350/450 with 25 homers that would be about a 110-115 wRC+ which should make him a league average 1B with average defense.

if he could play a decent catcher that could change the outlook of course. maybe they could occasionally catch him and play him mostly at 1B/DH

[oldsox]

Tatis is ranked a smooth #3.

[Dam8610]

16 hours ago, steveno89 said:

He still remains our best likely shot at a starting catcher in the system. 

For now. That could change next year, there are two very highly regarded catchers in the 2019 draft class in Adley Rutschman and Shea Langeliers.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

2 hours ago, oldsox said:

Tatis is ranked a smooth #3.

Surprised it took this long for this post to show up

[SoxAce]

14 minutes ago, ChiSox_Sonix said:

Surprised it took this long for this post to show up

Not to mention it wasn't Caulfield who brought it up.

[steveno89]

1 hour ago, Dam8610 said:

For now. That could change next year, there are two very highly regarded catchers in the 2019 draft class in Adley Rutschman and Shea Langeliers.

With how crucial the catcher position is, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Sox look for one early in the draft

[Dam8610]

24 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

With how crucial the catcher position is, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Sox look for one early in the draft

I'm personally a big fan of Adley Rutschman and hope the Sox are in a position to draft him next year if he continues to look as good as he does now.

[southsider2k5]

45 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Not to mention it wasn't Caulfield who brought it up.

This deserves a +1.

[southsider2k5]

44 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

With how crucial the catcher position is, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Sox look for one early in the draft

If the Sox can pull a potential star catcher out of the of the draft, that is a huge add for a franchise.  Truly good catchers are hard to find.  A franchise type catcher puts an organization ahead of most others just because of positional rarity.

[turnin' two]

1 hour ago, southsider2k5 said:

If the Sox can pull a potential star catcher out of the of the draft, that is a huge add for a franchise.  Truly good catchers are hard to find.  A franchise type catcher puts an organization ahead of most others just because of positional rarity.

I think guys can be a bit overrated because they are catchers as well.  Recent catchers taken in the top 10 (ish):

Joey Bart (2)

Collins (10)

Tyler Stephenson (11) 

Kyle Schwarber (4)

Max Pentecost (11th)

Reese McGuire (14th -- but 1st taken)

Mike Zunino (3)

Tony Sanchez (3)

Buster Posey (5)

Kyle Skipworth (6)

Jason Castro (10)

Matt Wieters (5)

Jeff Clement (3)

Neil Walker ( Yes, that Neil Walker -11)

Joe Mauer (1)

Eric Munson (3)

This goes back 20 years. 20!  The top 3, it is too early to say.  Schwarber isn't a C, Pentecost isn't looking good, McGuire is out of baseball, Zunino is a career .209 hitter, Sanchez is out of baseball, Posey is an All-Star, Skipworth washed out, and Castro has had 1 good year at the plate. Wieters is ok, never had an OPS over .800, Clement had no more than a cup of coffee, Walker was moved off the position fairly quickly, and Mauer was obviously great.  Munson washed out.

2.  2 real difference makers in 20 years.  Both taken in the top 5, so maybe there is something there.  But that isn't necessarily an inspiring success ratio.  I think teams get hypnotized by the idea of the great catcher and reach to get guys that shouldn't be going that highly. 

Then again, I'm sure this is the case for most positions in terms of ratios...

[Buehrlesque]

16 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I think guys can be a bit overrated because they are catchers as well.  Recent catchers taken in the top 10 (ish):

Joey Bart (2)

Collins (10)

Tyler Stephenson (11) 

Kyle Schwarber (4)

Max Pentecost (11th)

Reese McGuire (14th -- but 1st taken)

Mike Zunino (3)

Tony Sanchez (3)

Buster Posey (5)

Kyle Skipworth (6)

Jason Castro (10)

Matt Wieters (5)

Jeff Clement (3)

Neil Walker ( Yes, that Neil Walker -11)

Joe Mauer (1)

Eric Munson (3)

This goes back 20 years. 20!  The top 3, it is too early to say.  Schwarber isn't a C, Pentecost isn't looking good, McGuire is out of baseball, Zunino is a career .209 hitter, Sanchez is out of baseball, Posey is an All-Star, Skipworth washed out, and Castro has had 1 good year at the plate. Wieters is ok, never had an OPS over .800, Clement had no more than a cup of coffee, Walker was moved off the position fairly quickly, and Mauer was obviously great.  Munson washed out.

2.  2 real difference makers in 20 years.  Both taken in the top 5, so maybe there is something there.  But that isn't necessarily an inspiring success ratio.  I think teams get hypnotized by the idea of the great catcher and reach to get guys that shouldn't be going that highly. 

Then again, I'm sure this is the case for most positions in terms of ratios...

People need to star this post and reread it every day leading up to next year's draft!

[southsider2k5]

26 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

I think guys can be a bit overrated because they are catchers as well.  Recent catchers taken in the top 10 (ish):

Joey Bart (2)

Collins (10)

Tyler Stephenson (11) 

Kyle Schwarber (4)

Max Pentecost (11th)

Reese McGuire (14th -- but 1st taken)

Mike Zunino (3)

Tony Sanchez (3)

Buster Posey (5)

Kyle Skipworth (6)

Jason Castro (10)

Matt Wieters (5)

Jeff Clement (3)

Neil Walker ( Yes, that Neil Walker -11)

Joe Mauer (1)

Eric Munson (3)

This goes back 20 years. 20!  The top 3, it is too early to say.  Schwarber isn't a C, Pentecost isn't looking good, McGuire is out of baseball, Zunino is a career .209 hitter, Sanchez is out of baseball, Posey is an All-Star, Skipworth washed out, and Castro has had 1 good year at the plate. Wieters is ok, never had an OPS over .800, Clement had no more than a cup of coffee, Walker was moved off the position fairly quickly, and Mauer was obviously great.  Munson washed out.

2.  2 real difference makers in 20 years.  Both taken in the top 5, so maybe there is something there.  But that isn't necessarily an inspiring success ratio.  I think teams get hypnotized by the idea of the great catcher and reach to get guys that shouldn't be going that highly. 

Then again, I'm sure this is the case for most positions in terms of ratios...

It is a situation where you have to trust your scouts.  You also can't shy away from talent just because other teams have failed.  If a guy is your BPA, take him.

[turnin' two]

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

It is a situation where you have to trust your scouts.  You also can't shy away from talent just because other teams have failed.  If a guy is your BPA, take him.

Wasn't trying to say never take a C.  It is  just a scary list.  And to immediately think " we are gonna get our Posey!" well, he is a once a generation player.  The last 20 years have yielded 2 great catchers high in the first round.  All I am saying, is don't overestimate a guy because he is a C.  Odds are, because of the demands of the position, he will break down, his tools will lag or he will be moved off that position.  

[southsider2k5]

7 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Wasn't trying to say never take a C.  It is  just a scary list.  And to immediately think " we are gonna get our Posey!" well, he is a once a generation player.  The last 20 years have yielded 2 great catchers high in the first round.  All I am saying, is don't overestimate a guy because he is a C.  Odds are, because of the demands of the position, he will break down, his tools will lag or he will be moved off that position.  

Most guys taken in the draft never make it.  High School pitchers have a lot of the same history.  But if your scouts tell you that this Michael Kopech kid might be something, you take him.

[bmags]

21 hours ago, steveno89 said:

I have yet to hear a definitive update on how Collins has looked defensively in 2018. are we looking at a 40% chance he sticks at catcher? Worse? 

Right now I'm considering him to be our likely 1B/DH of the future until I hear a more positive review of his defense. He still remains our best likely shot at a starting catcher in the system. 

I'm the opposite, I'm not worried about him being a 1b until the sox move him. 

Currently, both the white sox and online scouts would say Collins is currently not an MLB catcher. They disagree whether he will be. As long as the sox think he is, you just have to wait. The projection of positions is not an exact science, you just gotta hope he keeps improving.

[steveno89]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

I'm the opposite, I'm not worried about him being a 1b until the sox move him. 

Currently, both the white sox and online scouts would say Collins is currently not an MLB catcher. They disagree whether he will be. As long as the sox think he is, you just have to wait. The projection of positions is not an exact science, you just gotta hope he keeps improving.

What do we feel Collins mlb ETA is at this point? Summer 2019? Later? 

Quality defense from a catcher is so important at the mlb level. 

[turnin' two]

3 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Most guys taken in the draft never make it.  High School pitchers have a lot of the same history.  But if your scouts tell you that this Michael Kopech kid might be something, you take him.

Yeah.  Duh.  Most guys never make it.  How many prep RHP prospects get taken top 3?  Top 5?  There is a reason, risk.  There is a reason that Michael Kopech didn't get taken until 33rd overall.  The risk of his profile.  Teams push guys with Kopech's tools down their charts because of his risk profile.  I feel catchers are pushed up, just because they are catchers.  Catchers carry a lot of risk as well.  There is a a reason that there have been 2 impact players in the last 20 years in the first 15 picks of the draft or so.  Those 2, though are probably 2 of the best 3 catchers of the last 20 years.  Maybe if you want one of those guys you have to go big, but expect Jason Castro, not Buster and hope he ends up better than that.

 

But yeah, trust your scouts.  Obviously.  I am not saying not to do that.  Not saying don't draft a C, just saying don't overestimate a guy simply because he plays catcher.

Edited June 12, 2018 by turnin' two

[caulfield12]

4 hours ago, Buehrlesque said:

People need to star this post and reread it every day leading up to next year's draft!

Look at guys like Willson Contreras, Sal Perez and Gary SANCHEZ....odds are much higher with position conversions or simply just playing Latin American lottery tickets than drafting high first rounders.

Edited June 12, 2018 by caulfield12

[credezcrew24]

6 hours ago, turnin' two said:

I think guys can be a bit overrated because they are catchers as well.  Recent catchers taken in the top 10 (ish):

Joey Bart (2)

Collins (10)

Tyler Stephenson (11) 

Kyle Schwarber (4)

Max Pentecost (11th)

Reese McGuire (14th -- but 1st taken)

Mike Zunino (3)

Tony Sanchez (3)

Buster Posey (5)

Kyle Skipworth (6)

Jason Castro (10)

Matt Wieters (5)

Jeff Clement (3)

Neil Walker ( Yes, that Neil Walker -11)

Joe Mauer (1)

Eric Munson (3)

This goes back 20 years. 20!  The top 3, it is too early to say.  Schwarber isn't a C, Pentecost isn't looking good, McGuire is out of baseball, Zunino is a career .209 hitter, Sanchez is out of baseball, Posey is an All-Star, Skipworth washed out, and Castro has had 1 good year at the plate. Wieters is ok, never had an OPS over .800, Clement had no more than a cup of coffee, Walker was moved off the position fairly quickly, and Mauer was obviously great.  Munson washed out.

2.  2 real difference makers in 20 years.  Both taken in the top 5, so maybe there is something there.  But that isn't necessarily an inspiring success ratio.  I think teams get hypnotized by the idea of the great catcher and reach to get guys that shouldn't be going that highly. 

Then again, I'm sure this is the case for most positions in terms of ratios...

What?

[Dominikk85]

14 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

If the Sox can pull a potential star catcher out of the of the draft, that is a huge add for a franchise.  Truly good catchers are hard to find.  A franchise type catcher puts an organization ahead of most others just because of positional rarity.

A problem is also that the requirements for catchers have changed because of framing stats. 10 years ago teams would let good hitting bat first catchers like napoli, Vmart or carlos santana catch because they tought the positional gain would outweigh the loss on defense but then came framing stats and said that this has a huge effect. because of that teams now rather play an 85 wRC+ catcher than a 115 wRC+ catcher who sucks defensively.

 

10 years ago collins probably would have caught but now the reuqirements have changed.