Fangraphs Top 131 Prospects List

[Dominikk85]

13 hours ago, turnin' two said:

I think guys can be a bit overrated because they are catchers as well.  Recent catchers taken in the top 10 (ish):

Joey Bart (2)

Collins (10)

Tyler Stephenson (11) 

Kyle Schwarber (4)

Max Pentecost (11th)

Reese McGuire (14th -- but 1st taken)

Mike Zunino (3)

Tony Sanchez (3)

Buster Posey (5)

Kyle Skipworth (6)

Jason Castro (10)

Matt Wieters (5)

Jeff Clement (3)

Neil Walker ( Yes, that Neil Walker -11)

Joe Mauer (1)

Eric Munson (3)

This goes back 20 years. 20!  The top 3, it is too early to say.  Schwarber isn't a C, Pentecost isn't looking good, McGuire is out of baseball, Zunino is a career .209 hitter, Sanchez is out of baseball, Posey is an All-Star, Skipworth washed out, and Castro has had 1 good year at the plate. Wieters is ok, never had an OPS over .800, Clement had no more than a cup of coffee, Walker was moved off the position fairly quickly, and Mauer was obviously great.  Munson washed out.

2.  2 real difference makers in 20 years.  Both taken in the top 5, so maybe there is something there.  But that isn't necessarily an inspiring success ratio.  I think teams get hypnotized by the idea of the great catcher and reach to get guys that shouldn't be going that highly. 

Then again, I'm sure this is the case for most positions in terms of ratios...

bryce harper also was drafted as a catcher as was josh donaldson.

the big issue is staying at catcher . the requirements of catching are so tough that many if not most guys who are drafted as catchers can't play there in the bigs (many because of the bat and others because of defense). you just don't have enough data from amateur ball and scouting can only tell you so much.

 

also many good catchers are now international guys. this is a trend in mlb. the "easy" positions like first base and outfield are played by american players and the skill positions like middle IF and catcher are played by international guys. it seems like those countries are better at developing those skills.

[Dominikk85]

8 hours ago, caulfield12 said:

Look at guys like Willson Contreras, Sal Perez and Gary SANCHEZ....odds are much higher with position conversions or simply just playing Latin American lottery tickets than drafting high first rounders.

sanchez wasn't a lottery ticket though, he was super highly rated and one of the most expensive J2 signings. that is basically the same as a top10 draft pick.

[yesterday333]

7 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

A problem is also that the requirements for catchers have changed because of framing stats. 10 years ago teams would let good hitting bat first catchers like napoli, Vmart or carlos santana catch because they tought the positional gain would outweigh the loss on defense but then came framing stats and said that this has a huge effect. because of that teams now rather play an 85 wRC+ catcher than a 115 wRC+ catcher who sucks defensively.

 

10 years ago collins probably would have caught but now the reuqirements have changed.

So if the mlb goes to electronic strikes zones (I think they will in a couple years) does Collins value increase and the defense first catchers value decrease?

[turnin' two]

10 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

sanchez wasn't a lottery ticket though, he was super highly rated and one of the most expensive J2 signings. that is basically the same as a top10 draft pick.

And is a terrible defender, who is currently hitting .190.

 

--- not saying that is who he is going forward, but it is volatile.  And I think it can be exaggerated for catchers because of the wear on their legs.  

Edited June 13, 2018 by turnin' two

[turnin' two]

10 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

bryce harper also was drafted as a catcher as was josh donaldson.

the big issue is staying at catcher . the requirements of catching are so tough that many if not most guys who are drafted as catchers can't play there in the bigs (many because of the bat and others because of defense). you just don't have enough data from amateur ball and scouting can only tell you so much.

 

also many good catchers are now international guys. this is a trend in mlb. the "easy" positions like first base and outfield are played by american players and the skill positions like middle IF and catcher are played by international guys. it seems like those countries are better at developing those skills.

Harper was a C in high school, but unless I am remembering incorrectly, that was never the plan and he never caught in the minors. 

I certainly agree with you on the middle portion of your statement, which is another reason it is dangerous to take a C with such a high pick. 

[bmags]

11 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

also many good catchers are now international guys. this is a trend in mlb. the "easy" positions like first base and outfield are played by american players and the skill positions like middle IF and catcher are played by international guys. it seems like those countries are better at developing those skills.

Or MLB teams are better at developing them. 

[Jake]

I think scouting pitch framing is basically tilting at windmills. You need MLB's analytical tools to evaluate it IMO.

[Dominikk85]

5 hours ago, yesterday333 said:

So if the mlb goes to electronic strikes zones (I think they will in a couple years) does Collins value increase and the defense first catchers value decrease?

Definitely. There is still blocking and controlling the running game but if framing is out I think we will see mike napoli types catching again.

[Jose Abreu]

I went to one of those Rick Hahn Q & A sessions on Monday. I found it funny when he was asked a question about Dylan Cease, and the first thing he did was make a joke about how Fangraphs doesn't think he's a top 131 prospect 

[turnin' two]

8 hours ago, Jake said:

I think scouting pitch framing is basically tilting at windmills. You need MLB's analytical tools to evaluate it IMO.

It may be tilting at windmills even at the MLB level.  As far as I know, they just use the data from the catchers, which would be incomplete.  To get a better picture, they would have to overlay the catcher's data over the typical zone for each umpire, as we all know umps have varying zones.  

Another thing that illustrates the issue with framing, at least to me, is the inconsistency of its leaders.  If it were truly a skill, you would expect that the same guys would tend to be towards to top.  We know Nolan Arenado is a great defender, and the numbers show it year in and year out.  The same can't necessarily be said of framing.  If you look at the last few years you will see some head scratching things,  for instance, in 2014 Jonathan Lucroy was 5th in baseball in framing.  In 2017 he was dead last.  That is quite the drop off.  But ok, maybe he just deteriorated incredibly quickly.  Willson Contreras was 25th in 16, 88th last year, dead last this year.  Buster Poser was 1st in 2016, and 23rd in 2017.  Alex Avila was 87th in '16, 105 in 17, he is 16th this year.  Cervelli was 7th in 16, 100th in 17, and 92nd this year.  Max Stassi went 60, 45, 1.  Maybe he is really working on it, but that is a heck of a  progression.  Derek Norris went from 92nd, to 7th to 8th.  That's weird.  Russ Martin went from 5th to 31st to 8th.  Jason Castro went 9,3, 15, 29, which is mostly consistent I guess.  James McCann went from 108 to 27 to 110, to 23.  Really odd.  

Now there are some guys that are consistently toward the top, Molina is routinely right around 10, Grandal has been consistently toward the top.  Sal Perez is routinely at the bottom, but I'd take him in a heartbeat.  

There are just enough weird variances to make me doubt the validity of the numbers to some degree.  Guys just seem to really bounce around a lot.  

Someone please sell me on why I should buy in more.  

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

2 hours ago, turnin' two said:

It may be tilting at windmills even at the MLB level.  As far as I know, they just use the data from the catchers, which would be incomplete.  To get a better picture, they would have to overlay the catcher's data over the typical zone for each umpire, as we all know umps have varying zones.  

Another thing that illustrates the issue with framing, at least to me, is the inconsistency of its leaders.  If it were truly a skill, you would expect that the same guys would tend to be towards to top.  We know Nolan Arenado is a great defender, and the numbers show it year in and year out.  The same can't necessarily be said of framing.  If you look at the last few years you will see some head scratching things,  for instance, in 2014 Jonathan Lucroy was 5th in baseball in framing.  In 2017 he was dead last.  That is quite the drop off.  But ok, maybe he just deteriorated incredibly quickly.  Willson Contreras was 25th in 16, 88th last year, dead last this year.  Buster Poser was 1st in 2016, and 23rd in 2017.  Alex Avila was 87th in '16, 105 in 17, he is 16th this year.  Cervelli was 7th in 16, 100th in 17, and 92nd this year.  Max Stassi went 60, 45, 1.  Maybe he is really working on it, but that is a heck of a  progression.  Derek Norris went from 92nd, to 7th to 8th.  That's weird.  Russ Martin went from 5th to 31st to 8th.  Jason Castro went 9,3, 15, 29, which is mostly consistent I guess.  James McCann went from 108 to 27 to 110, to 23.  Really odd.  

Now there are some guys that are consistently toward the top, Molina is routinely right around 10, Grandal has been consistently toward the top.  Sal Perez is routinely at the bottom, but I'd take him in a heartbeat.  

There are just enough weird variances to make me doubt the validity of the numbers to some degree.  Guys just seem to really bounce around a lot.  

Someone please sell me on why I should buy in more.  

I've also consistently argued on here about framing stats maybe not as have you done showing the inconsistencies but more along the lines of it's not just a catcher thing. It involves a pitcher and an umpire but that could be where the inconsistencies come from . Year to year a catcher has different pitchers to catch and different umps behind him. We all know umps have different zones and pitchers can have reps that get them calls while other get the rookie treatment or because of lack of command just don't get the good calls on pitches others do get. Some pitches, like a curve bal,l the umps seem to do a worse job on calling them strikes especially ones at the bottom of the zone which is where a curve is really most effective.

[Dominikk85]

they could also not draft a catcher and package 3 of their prospects for a really good catcher like realmuto or so.

[Dam8610]

18 minutes ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

they could also not draft a catcher and package 3 of their prospects for a really good catcher like realmuto or so.

They could do a lot of things. That said, if they feel a guy who could develop into a top tier catcher and play good defense at the position is available, IMO the only way you pass on that is if you have a Bryce Harper or a David Price sitting there.

[turnin' two]

8 hours ago, Dam8610 said:

They could do a lot of things. That said, if they feel a guy who could develop into a top tier catcher and play good defense at the position is available, IMO the only way you pass on that is if you have a Bryce Harper or a David Price sitting there.

Would you have taken Bart over Madrigal?  That wasn't the impression I got from you.

[Dam8610]

2 minutes ago, turnin' two said:

Would you have taken Bart over Madrigal?  That wasn't the impression I got from you.

No, because Bart was 45 hit and the org is terrible at improving hit tools. Bart also didn't have the grades of a franchise catcher to me. Very good, sure, but the 45 hit tool disqualifies him to me. I'm talking about a C with something like:

55+ hit 55+ power 55+ defense 55+ arm

With at least two of those being 60+

[zisk]

9 hours ago, dominik-keul@gmx.de said:

they could also not draft a catcher and package 3 of their prospects for a really good catcher like realmuto or so.

    It might be a good time to try and get Carson Kelly. Cards are down on him and he hasn't hit in the majors yet.

    We possibly could get him cheap and his defense is good. You never know about the bat, but his MLB hit sample

    is so small that he could end up being OK with the bat.

[southsider2k5]

22 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

No, because Bart was 45 hit and the org is terrible at improving hit tools. Bart also didn't have the grades of a franchise catcher to me. Very good, sure, but the 45 hit tool disqualifies him to me. I'm talking about a C with something like:

55+ hit 55+ power 55+ defense 55+ arm

With at least two of those being 60+

So you are pretty much waiting for Bryce Harper again.

[bmags]

12 hours ago, turnin' two said:

It may be tilting at windmills even at the MLB level.  As far as I know, they just use the data from the catchers, which would be incomplete.  To get a better picture, they would have to overlay the catcher's data over the typical zone for each umpire, as we all know umps have varying zones.  

Another thing that illustrates the issue with framing, at least to me, is the inconsistency of its leaders.  If it were truly a skill, you would expect that the same guys would tend to be towards to top.  We know Nolan Arenado is a great defender, and the numbers show it year in and year out.  The same can't necessarily be said of framing.  If you look at the last few years you will see some head scratching things,  for instance, in 2014 Jonathan Lucroy was 5th in baseball in framing.  In 2017 he was dead last.  That is quite the drop off.  But ok, maybe he just deteriorated incredibly quickly.  Willson Contreras was 25th in 16, 88th last year, dead last this year.  Buster Poser was 1st in 2016, and 23rd in 2017.  Alex Avila was 87th in '16, 105 in 17, he is 16th this year.  Cervelli was 7th in 16, 100th in 17, and 92nd this year.  Max Stassi went 60, 45, 1.  Maybe he is really working on it, but that is a heck of a  progression.  Derek Norris went from 92nd, to 7th to 8th.  That's weird.  Russ Martin went from 5th to 31st to 8th.  Jason Castro went 9,3, 15, 29, which is mostly consistent I guess.  James McCann went from 108 to 27 to 110, to 23.  Really odd.  

Now there are some guys that are consistently toward the top, Molina is routinely right around 10, Grandal has been consistently toward the top.  Sal Perez is routinely at the bottom, but I'd take him in a heartbeat.  

There are just enough weird variances to make me doubt the validity of the numbers to some degree.  Guys just seem to really bounce around a lot.  

Someone please sell me on why I should buy in more.  

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitch-framing-data-is-going-insane/

This addresses a lot of it. But one thing, Pitch Framing does try to account for changing zones from year to year and batter to batter:

Quote

To reflect what is best known about the way the size and position of the strike zone shifts from count to count and batter to batter, we ran individual models for each set of batter and pitcher handedness as well as "pitch group" (see Table 1). The smoothing parameters of each model were allowed to vary by count, so that while the general shape of the strike zone derived for each variable combination did not change, the width and height of it did (reflecting, for example, a larger strike zone on 3-0 counts than on 1-2 or 0-2 counts). We also accounted for the changing size of the strike zone from season to season (although these yearly changes are much smaller than the other changes we measured).

And also you are measuring catcher performance by their relative ranking to each other. One thing to keep in mind is that the difference between the best and worst pitch framers is much smaller now than it was 10 years ago. But the variation year to year for good framers is a new thing, and as Jeff mentions, possibly could be from the floor being raised so dramatically. 

Because it was raised so dramatically so quickly, it's a good bet that this is just a teachable technique thing that, unlike defense, is not something that would be correlated to a specific feature like being fast, athletic, etc.

[OmarComing25]

13 hours ago, turnin' two said:

It may be tilting at windmills even at the MLB level.  As far as I know, they just use the data from the catchers, which would be incomplete.  To get a better picture, they would have to overlay the catcher's data over the typical zone for each umpire, as we all know umps have varying zones.  

Another thing that illustrates the issue with framing, at least to me, is the inconsistency of its leaders.  If it were truly a skill, you would expect that the same guys would tend to be towards to top.  We know Nolan Arenado is a great defender, and the numbers show it year in and year out.  The same can't necessarily be said of framing.  If you look at the last few years you will see some head scratching things,  for instance, in 2014 Jonathan Lucroy was 5th in baseball in framing.  In 2017 he was dead last.  That is quite the drop off.  But ok, maybe he just deteriorated incredibly quickly.  Willson Contreras was 25th in 16, 88th last year, dead last this year.  Buster Poser was 1st in 2016, and 23rd in 2017.  Alex Avila was 87th in '16, 105 in 17, he is 16th this year.  Cervelli was 7th in 16, 100th in 17, and 92nd this year.  Max Stassi went 60, 45, 1.  Maybe he is really working on it, but that is a heck of a  progression.  Derek Norris went from 92nd, to 7th to 8th.  That's weird.  Russ Martin went from 5th to 31st to 8th.  Jason Castro went 9,3, 15, 29, which is mostly consistent I guess.  James McCann went from 108 to 27 to 110, to 23.  Really odd.  

Now there are some guys that are consistently toward the top, Molina is routinely right around 10, Grandal has been consistently toward the top.  Sal Perez is routinely at the bottom, but I'd take him in a heartbeat.  

There are just enough weird variances to make me doubt the validity of the numbers to some degree.  Guys just seem to really bounce around a lot.  

Someone please sell me on why I should buy in more.  

I think the framing stats are volatile because it also relies on your pitchers somewhat. Framing for a guy with pinpoint control like Kluber is probably a heck of a lot easier than framing for a guy like Chatwood.

[Dam8610]

25 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

So you are pretty much waiting for Bryce Harper again.

Harper was 60+ on everything.

[bmags]

35 minutes ago, OmarComing25 said:

I think the framing stats are volatile because it also relies on your pitchers somewhat. Framing for a guy with pinpoint control like Kluber is probably a heck of a lot easier than framing for a guy like Chatwood.

BP puts controls in pitchers though.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/22934/framing-and-blocking-pitches-a-regressed-probabilistic-model-a-new-method-for-measuring-catcher-defense/

Quote

The WOWY analysis created adjustments ranging from +/- .1 called strikes per opportunity and from +/- .01 runs per opportunity. The largest gross beneficiary of easy-to-frame pitchers was—Yadier Molina. The perennial gold glove winner started the analysis with 127 runs added before giving 60 back to his pitchers. This reflects the command contributions of teammates of the class of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright and is no knock on Molina, who still ranks high overall.

 

[steveno89]

On 6/14/2018 at 10:41 AM, Dam8610 said:

No, because Bart was 45 hit and the org is terrible at improving hit tools. Bart also didn't have the grades of a franchise catcher to me. Very good, sure, but the 45 hit tool disqualifies him to me. I'm talking about a C with something like:

55+ hit 55+ power 55+ defense 55+ arm

With at least two of those being 60+

The player you are describing would be one of the best prospects in baseball^ 

 

[Dam8610]

1 hour ago, steveno89 said:

The player you are describing would be one of the best prospects in baseball^ 

 

Yes, that's typically what you get with a Top 5 pick.

[Eminor3rd]

20 minutes ago, Dam8610 said:

Yes, that's typically what you get with a Top 5 pick.

A viable MLB defensive C prospect with four plus tools (where the only non-plus is running) is like a generational talent.

[turnin' two]

On 6/14/2018 at 11:09 AM, bmags said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitch-framing-data-is-going-insane/

This addresses a lot of it. But one thing, Pitch Framing does try to account for changing zones from year to year and batter to batter:

And also you are measuring catcher performance by their relative ranking to each other. One thing to keep in mind is that the difference between the best and worst pitch framers is much smaller now than it was 10 years ago. But the variation year to year for good framers is a new thing, and as Jeff mentions, possibly could be from the floor being raised so dramatically. 

Because it was raised so dramatically so quickly, it's a good bet that this is just a teachable technique thing that, unlike defense, is not something that would be correlated to a specific feature like being fast, athletic, etc.

Thanks for posting this, it was quite a good read.  With that said, however, that doesn't really sell me on buying in, if anything it just re-enforces many of the same concerns I had listed.