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Y2Jimmy0

Fangraphs Top 131 Prospects List

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Puzzling for me is the sudden jump for Adolfo. Yes, he finally started hitting a bit, but the arm injury is still very much a problem and very much unresolved.

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I'm honestly surprised Dunning isn't ranked higher. Dude has done nothing but succeed and practically dominate at every level he's been to. Dunning might be our best under-the-radar prospect...the guy who is supposed to be good but no one talks about very much, but will be a big part of the next championship team.

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I think Eric and Kiley have said in the past they don't view Cease as a starter due to delivery and control concerns, but people said that about Kopech and he's #15, so IDK.

 

Adolfo has better tools and performance than Rutherford or Basabe, so that makes sense. The arm injury isn't as much of a concern due to his position. They were high on Keston Hiura after the draft IIRC.

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Kiley or Eric saw Rutherford in the Sox mini-camp and hated his power, so no shock there. To me, Cease has done enough this year to be a top 100.

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My guess is Cease still being in High A hurts him. FG is way higher on Burdi than the rest of the industry and Robert at #17 overall is high as well. Seeing Collins in there is nice and Adolfo's presence doesn't surprise me. That bat looks real. 

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6 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

My guess is Cease still being in High A hurts him. FG is way higher on Burdi than the rest of the industry and Robert at #17 overall is high as well. Seeing Collins in there is nice and Adolfo's presence doesn't surprise me. That bat looks real. 

Same for Basabe. It's basically his third year in Hi-A, he should be doing what he's doing (though I'm very happy with it!). Adolfo is obviously in hi-a, but the big news with him is he kept his improved walk rate he found after july and actually improved upon that at a higher level. I'm not sure why the TJ should be a concern, he's not a pitcher and it would be shocking to me if the TJ brought his arm all the way down to below average.

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I was just looking at this on FG and no Cease is what surprised me the most, but after seeing what @daggins said about Kiley & Eric thought about Cease I see why they don't have him up there.  I disagree with them on that, but we will see.  Hansen will move up if he finally gets healthy and finally throws in some games....starting to get worried about the lack of updates with him.

Still nice to see 9 in the top 130....FG is going to update The Board next....that is an exciting new feature.

FG lists Collins as a 1B....they must definitely not think he will stick at C.  I am guessing he would be even higher if he was going to stick at C.

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39 minutes ago, bmags said:

Same for Basabe. It's basically his third year in Hi-A, he should be doing what he's doing (though I'm very happy with it!). Adolfo is obviously in hi-a, but the big news with him is he kept his improved walk rate he found after july and actually improved upon that at a higher level. I'm not sure why the TJ should be a concern, he's not a pitcher and it would be shocking to me if the TJ brought his arm all the way down to below average.

Basabe has been significantly better than last year, which he really needed. If he keeps up the good work he could be looking at a promotion to AA and a rejuvenated prospect status. His defensive skills make him an interesting prospect, as he likely can stick in center field. He's still at least two years away from the majors right now. 

Adolfo has also had a quality season, substantially increasing his walk rate. I'm still not sure what to make of him, as the hit tool will end up deciding his fate. 

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Just now, steveno89 said:

Basabe has been significantly better than last year, which he really needed. If he keeps up the good work he could be looking at a promotion to AA and a rejuvenated prospect status. His defensive skills make him an interesting prospect, as he likely can stick in center field. He's still at least two years away from the majors right now. 

Adolfo has also had a quality season, substantially increasing his walk rate. I'm still not sure what to make of him, as the hit tool will end up deciding his fate. 

Basabe's doing great. But for these lists he's competing against every prospect, not just white sox ones. The good news is if he does what he's doing now in Birmingham he's a top 50 prospect. Birmingham will decide all these guys fates. So I'm not that worried about rankings for guys still in Aball or lower.

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4 minutes ago, BFirebird said:

I was just looking at this on FG and no Cease is what surprised me the most, but after seeing what @daggins said about Kiley & Eric thought about Cease I see why they don't have him up there.  I disagree with them on that, but we will see.  Hansen will move up if he finally gets healthy and finally throws in some games....starting to get worried about the lack of updates with him.

Still nice to see 9 in the top 130....FG is going to update The Board next....that is an exciting new feature.

FG lists Collins as a 1B....they must definitely not think he will stick at C.  I am guessing he would be even higher if he was going to stick at C.

If Collins were even graded as a solid "50" defensively at catcher then you are looking at a top 40 prospect in baseball without question. 

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5 minutes ago, bmags said:

Basabe's doing great. But for these lists he's competing against every prospect, not just white sox ones. The good news is if he does what he's doing now in Birmingham he's a top 50 prospect. Birmingham will decide all these guys fates. So I'm not that worried about rankings for guys still in Aball or lower.

Basabe was young for high A ball last year, and seemed bothered by nagging injuries. Now that he is healthy it has been a big difference. 

I agree^ AA is the make or break level for prospects. A/High A determine who gets that chance at AA. 

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2 minutes ago, credezcrew24 said:

I cannot understand how anyone could place a moderately successful pre-Tommy John reliever (Burdi) before a very successful post-Tommy John starter (Cease)

Questions still remain on if Cease will end up as a starter or a reliever. Those questions won't really start to be answered until he reaches AA. While not necessarily a night and day difference, the hitters are more patient higher up the ladder. I would lean reliever if you asked me right now, where he could unleash his plus stuff an inning or two at a time. I'm not sure if he can get his walk rate down enough to stick in a rotation. 

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15 minutes ago, steveno89 said:

Questions still remain on if Cease will end up as a starter or a reliever. Those questions won't really start to be answered until he reaches AA. While not necessarily a night and day difference, the hitters are more patient higher up the ladder. I would lean reliever if you asked me right now, where he could unleash his plus stuff an inning or two at a time. I'm not sure if he can get his walk rate down enough to stick in a rotation. 

It's always a safe bet a pitcher in A+ is going to end up a reliever. Those odds would pay 1/9 or shorter.

One difference between Cease and Burdi is Cease has been able to unleash his plus stuff over 5 innings. Burdi is only expected at his best to go 1 inning.

Even if Cease is a guaranteed reliever he has proven to be effective after Tommy John and Burdi has not

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8 minutes ago, credezcrew24 said:

It's always a safe bet a pitcher in A+ is going to end up a reliever. Those odds would pay 1/9 or shorter.

One difference between Cease and Burdi is Cease has been able to unleash his plus stuff over 5 innings. Burdi is only expected at his best to go 1 inning.

Even if Cease is a guaranteed reliever he has proven to be effective after Tommy John and Burdi has not

The difference between 116 and a 130 or 180 prospect is probably much smaller  as to be meaningless. But they are making a list, and clearly longenhagen saw and heard reports of Burdi that made him notable, and he's kept him here despite the injury.

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I usually find FG to be the best gauge for relative prospect ratings but leaving Cease off feels like an oversight. I know I am in the small minority here but I rank Cease with Kopech (1 and 1a). I know he needs to prove durable but his stuff (fastball/curve) is damn near as good as it gets.

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36 minutes ago, Flash said:

I usually find FG to be the best gauge for relative prospect ratings but leaving Cease off feels like an oversight. I know I am in the small minority here but I rank Cease with Kopech (1 and 1a). I know he needs to prove durable but his stuff (fastball/curve) is damn near as good as it gets.

When Cease was on TV, you could see that he has definite control issues. But the real issue was that many of his strikeouts were on swing and misses out of the zone. If he continues with thethe strikeouts at the higher levels as Kopech has done, his ratings will rise. More patient hitters at higher levels will tell a lot.

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Collins ranking kind of puzzles me. If he can catch up to big league fastballs, which every indication says "yes," you're looking at a floor of a 10 year career, even at 1st base. Basically, he'll have a longer career than 90% of the other guys on that last. 

Edited by TaylorStSox

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8 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Collins ranking kind of puzzles me. If he can catch up to big league fastballs, which every indication says "yes," you're looking at a floor of a 10 year career, even at 1st base. Basically, he'll have a longer career than 90% of the other guys on that last. 

They listed him as a 1b, and there is only one other 1b ahead of him. That ranking is a pretty nice recommendation of his bat.

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8 minutes ago, TaylorStSox said:

Collins ranking kind of puzzles me. If he can catch up to big league fastballs, which every indication says "yes," you're looking at a floor of a 10 year career, even at 1st base. Basically, he'll have a longer career than 90% of the other guys on that last. 

I can understand why he is ranked there. His numbers before these last couple of months left something to be desired (especially for a 1b). If he keeps raking this yr, which I think he will do, he will keep rising up that board.

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