Astros interested in Abreu?

[GreenSox]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

#1 overall prospect in baseball is not the same as just any top 25 guy.  Huge value difference there.

Could be; that stuff is fluid. Moncada wasn't a universal number 1 anyway.
Look at what JD Martinez got. He was traded with an OPS in excess of 1.

[chitownsportsfan]

10 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Hold on, you were just saying a few weeks ago you’d give up a B prospect for James fucking Shields if you needed a backend starter and now you think that’s all we’d get for one of the best hitters in baseball??

You made me dig, one day I will come to you for a favor...

This is what I said:

Package him with whatever reliever the contender wants and try and squeeze a B- type out of it.   Pay his freight if necessary.

 

Jose is a 1.5 WAR player over the next 4 odd months or so.  He's not signed long term.  He doesn't have much trade value, regardless of semantics with hypothetical prospect grade returns.  It's hard to believe but Shields has .8 fWAR...I'll spoil the fun if I give you Jose's!

 

[chitownsportsfan]

7 hours ago, tlongo81@gmail.com said:

Thanks.

Doesn't seem like the most reliable metric as not all prospects are ranked the same across the board.

How much WAR was Moncada projected to have by now going by his surplus value from when we acquired him?

You can usually put down a prospect like Moncada (universal top 5, some top 1) for about 10-15 guaranteed.  More often than not that's 20-30, pre arb anyways.  I believe one of the benefits for the Sox of the Moncada deal is that the signing bonus paid to Moncada was already paid in full by the Red Sox.   

[Chicago White Sox]

16 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

You made me dig, one day I will come to you for a favor...

This is what I said:

Package him with whatever reliever the contender wants and try and squeeze a B- type out of it.   Pay his freight if necessary.

 

Jose is a 1.5 WAR player over the next 4 odd months or so.  He's not signed long term.  He doesn't have much trade value, regardless of semantics with hypothetical prospect grade returns.  It's hard to believe but Shields has .8 fWAR...I'll spoil the fun if I give you Jose's!

 

You said you’d give up Basabe for Shields.  You may have changed your tune a bit afterwards, but your initial statement was a B prospect for Big Game James.  Regardless, if you think that Abreu & Shields are even remotely comparable players then god bless you and your inability to think beyond a good but flawed statistic.  I can’t believe anyone would actually quote WAR in an attempt to argue these guys are roughly the same in value.

[Sticky Stuff]

I’m not into the metric stats that a lot of people seem to be in on this site, so if someone could help me out with this Abreu being a 1.5 WAR player over the next 4 months? The 1.5 WAR would be if he stayed in a Sox uniform the rest of the way correct? If he was batting 4th or 5th with the Astros from the start of this year would his WAR be any different than it is now with the Sox? Would that WAR of 1.5 for the next 4 months change if he was with the Astros? Common sense to me says that Abreu would have much better numbers if Springer, Altuve, Bregman, and Correia were hitting in front of him than Moncada and Sanchez. Can Abreu’s numbers with the Sox be put in the Astros 4 or 5 spot to see what his numbers would be with them? 

It seems to me his “value” is less with the Sox and would be more with the Astros based on the opportunities he would have with those 3 or 4 players in front of him instead of Moncada and Sanchez.

Edited June 21, 2018 by DH in the NL

[wrathofhahn]

The trade deadline isn't about WAR it's about filling needs and replacing non productive players with productive ones.

If a bunch of teams need to replace their 1B and feel Abreu is the answer to fixing that then it won't matter what his WAR is or how much JDM went for. Conversely if you have a player who has a high WAR but where is isn't a market for his services among contenders it doesn't matter what previous players went for or his WAR the return will be limited.

[Sticky Stuff]

3 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

The trade deadline isn't about WAR it's about filling needs and replacing non productive players with productive ones.

If a bunch of teams need to replace their 1B and feel Abreu is the answer to fixing that then it won't matter what his WAR is or how much JDM went for. Conversely if you have a player who has a high WAR but where is isn't a market for his services among contenders it doesn't matter what previous players went for or his WAR the return will be limited.

Then what determines the haul we would get back from trading Abreu?

[ron883]

17 minutes ago, DH in the NL said:

Then what determines the haul we would get back from trading Abreu?

Whatever seems reasonable to greg

[Sticky Stuff]

4 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Whatever seems reasonable to greg

So Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Frazier, Robertson, Kahnle, Swarzak, Jennings. Anyone else?

Edit: Forgot Ventura

Edited June 21, 2018 by DH in the NL

[Southwest Sider]

14 minutes ago, DH in the NL said:

Then what determines the haul we would get back from trading Abreu?

Rick Hahns patience, and if people will play his game.

Whether or not the big deals he's made work out, they've all looked pretty good on paper. I don't think he's going to trade him for a lottery ticket and some meh prospects. He was even able to obtain a somewhat decent prospect (Rutherford) for Todd Frazier and a couple of relievers. Rutherford is still a young, unpolished prospect, but was a pretty well thought of first round pick. Additionally, they were able to acquire a reasonable project prospect in Ian Clarkin. Abreu is a better hitter than Frazier, it is plausible to think that an Abreu + good reliever (not Nate Jones unless he turns it around) nets you a solid B+ / A- prospect and a prospect better than Ian Clarkin.

I doubt Rick Hahn would settle for any less, anyways. 

[Southwest Sider]

Just now, South Sider said:

Rick Hahns patience, and if people will play his game.

Whether or not the big deals he's made work out, they've all looked pretty good on paper. I don't think he's going to trade him for a lottery ticket and some meh prospects. He was even able to obtain a somewhat decent prospect (Rutherford) for Todd Frazier and a couple of relievers. Rutherford is still a young, unpolished prospect, but was a pretty well thought of first round pick. Additionally, they were able to acquire a reasonable project prospect in Ian Clarkin. Abreu is a better hitter than Frazier, it is plausible to think that an Abreu + good reliever (not Nate Jones unless he turns it around) nets you a solid B+ / A- prospect and a prospect better than Ian Clarkin.

I doubt Rick Hahn would settle for any less, anyways. 

Re-reading this, it does seem that people could make the argument that Rutherford is a lottery ticket and Clarkin and Polo are "meh" prospects. Ahhh well. Maybe thats the best we can hope for then. 😂

[ron883]

4 minutes ago, DH in the NL said:

So Sale, Quintana, Eaton, Frazier, Robertson, Kahnle, Swarzak, Jennings. Anyone else?

Whichever team can offer ozzie Guillen on a lifetime managing contract and an authentic Alex Rios voodoo doll would get Jose Abreu and the sox top 3 prospects

Edited June 21, 2018 by Hot FiRe

[Sticky Stuff]

3 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Whichever team can offer ozzie Guillen on a lifetime managing contract and an authentic Alex Rios voodoo doll would get Jose Abreu and the sox top 3 prospects

We can only bring back Guillen and voodoo Rios if KW gets his old job back. Apparently Hahn has no trade value according to many on here.

[southsider2k5]

9 hours ago, South Sider said:

Rick Hahns patience, and if people will play his game.

Whether or not the big deals he's made work out, they've all looked pretty good on paper. I don't think he's going to trade him for a lottery ticket and some meh prospects. He was even able to obtain a somewhat decent prospect (Rutherford) for Todd Frazier and a couple of relievers. Rutherford is still a young, unpolished prospect, but was a pretty well thought of first round pick. Additionally, they were able to acquire a reasonable project prospect in Ian Clarkin. Abreu is a better hitter than Frazier, it is plausible to think that an Abreu + good reliever (not Nate Jones unless he turns it around) nets you a solid B+ / A- prospect and a prospect better than Ian Clarkin.

I doubt Rick Hahn would settle for any less, anyways. 

The Yankees trade happened because no one really wanted to offer anything of substance for Frazier.  The Yankees basically offered to up the ante to get quality relief into the deal, which is why the deal got built into Robertson and Kahnle. 

[southsider2k5]

10 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

Whatever seems reasonable to greg

Package up our top 10 list for veterans.

[steveno89]

9 hours ago, DH in the NL said:

Then what determines the haul we would get back from trading Abreu?

I would not expect a "haul" in return for Abreu, especially from a team like the Astros. 

[chitownsportsfan]

@Chicago White Sox that's kinda a chickenshit response IMO after I went and pulled my exact quote from the Shields thread.  

As I see you didn't take my hint and go check Fangraphs or B-Ref I'll just leave this here:

James Shields 2018 fWAR: .8

Jose Abreu 2018 fWAR: .9

James Shields 2018 bWAR: 1.2

Jose Abreu 2018 bWAR: .9

Their contracts are very similar.  

I love Jose Abreu and everything he stands for.  I loathe James Shields and all he represents about the failures of Sox past.

But the facts on the ground right now suggest that neither guy has much trade value and that the delta between any expected return is less than it appears at 1st glance.

Edited June 21, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[ChiSox59]

34 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

@Chicago White Sox that's kinda a chickenshit response IMO after I went and pulled my exact quote from the Shields thread.  

As I see you didn't take my hint and go check Fangraphs or B-Ref I'll just leave this here:

James Shields 2018 fWAR: .8

Jose Abreu 2018 fWAR: .9

James Shields 2018 bWAR: 1.2

Jose Abreu 2018 bWAR: .9

Their contracts are very similar.  

I love Jose Abreu and everything he stands for.  I loathe James Shields and all he represents about the failures of Sox past.

But the facts on the ground right now suggest that neither guy has much trade value and that the delta between any expected return is less than it appears at 1st glance.

Except one is an over the hill pitcher that has pitched his best baseball in 3 years and is an impending FA.  The other is one of the best bats in baseball on a reasonable contract, controlled for another season, and has the ability to get a comp pick out of in 1.5 years.  The gap in value is significant, despite what bWAR and fWAR say. 

 

I'm not saying that Jose is going to command 2 top 50 prospects, but if he doesn't command at least 1 and another solid flier, he just simply isn't going to be traded.  

[Chicago White Sox]

36 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

@Chicago White Sox that's kinda a chickenshit response IMO after I went and pulled my exact quote from the Shields thread.  

As I see you didn't take my hint and go check Fangraphs or B-Ref I'll just leave this here:

James Shields 2018 fWAR: .8

Jose Abreu 2018 fWAR: .9

James Shields 2018 bWAR: 1.2

Jose Abreu 2018 bWAR: .9

Their contracts are very similar.  

I love Jose Abreu and everything he stands for.  I loathe James Shields and all he represents about the failures of Sox past.

But the facts on the ground right now suggest that neither guy has much trade value and that the delta between any expected return is less than it appears at 1st glance.

I actually enjoy you as a poster and wasn't trying to make this personal, but this is the worst assessment of trade value I have ever seen.  A snap-shot of WAR on June 21st doesn't change the fact that Jose Abreu has decent (although probably not great) trade value and that Shields has little to none.

[wrathofhahn]

12 hours ago, DH in the NL said:

Then what determines the haul we would get back from trading Abreu?

Demand and supply.

Teams at the deadline will have a very specific set of needs that they will want to addressed. Earlier I went through all the contending teams and found 8 of them that could use an upgrade at 1B a bunch of the guys who hit well last year fell down to earth.

I don't think we'll really have a problem with getting good value for Abreu but we'll have to see what teams offer

Edited June 21, 2018 by wrathofhahn

[greg775]

12 hours ago, wrathofhahn said:

The trade deadline isn't about WAR it's about filling needs and replacing non productive players with productive ones.

If a bunch of teams need to replace their 1B and feel Abreu is the answer to fixing that then it won't matter what his WAR is or how much JDM went for. Conversely if you have a player who has a high WAR but where is isn't a market for his services among contenders it doesn't matter what previous players went for or his WAR the return will be limited.

Well that's an interesting take. Your first sentence will go down in infamy. What you are saying is despite all this talk of WAR and advanced stats that so penetrate the war rooms of teams (no pun intended), the trade deadline is about ol Greg's "eye test" more than anything else. It's about a team needing a first baseman as you say, and not analyzing the advanced stats and saying simply, "That Abreu is a good hitter, a perennial all-star. We need to get that guy." You guys slay me sometimes. Is everything about the brave new stat world or Greg's eye test?? p.s. (don't jump on me; you are the one who wrote it).

Edited June 21, 2018 by greg775

[chitownsportsfan]

22 minutes ago, ChiSox59 said:

Except one is an over the hill pitcher that has pitched his best baseball in 3 years and is an impending FA.  The other is one of the best bats in baseball on a reasonable contract, controlled for another season, and has the ability to get a comp pick out of in 1.5 years.  The gap in value is significant, despite what bWAR and fWAR say. 

 

I'm not saying that Jose is going to command 2 top 50 prospects, but if he doesn't command at least 1 and another solid flier, he just simply isn't going to be traded.  

James Shield's FA status in 2019 is a feature, not a bug, for any team trading for him.  He is the literal definition of a rental.  He has value to any club looking for a competent 4th/5th starter, which is almost every contender come mid July, with no long term commitment.

21 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I actually enjoy you as a poster and wasn't trying to make this personal, but this is the worst assessment of trade value I have ever seen.  A snap-shot of WAR on June 21st doesn't change the fact that Jose Abreu has decent (although probably not great) trade value and that Shields has little to none.

Meh.  I'm coming at you with hard facts and you're coming at me with platitudes.  There's no surplus value in Jose Abreu's bat, as I've illustrated.  If you want to do a deep dive on every contender and see what their expected win totals would be with Jose instead of whatever they currently have at 1B/DH go ahead.  If you find anyplace where he adds more than 3 wins, go ahead and @ me, because a team would actually pay for that.  

[ChiSox59]

7 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

James Shield's FA status in 2019 is a feature, not a bug, for any team trading for him.  He is the literal definition of a rental.  He has value to any club looking for a competent 4th/5th starter, which is almost every contender come mid July, with no long term commitment.

Right.  But earlier in the post you were talking about how Shields and Abreu have similar values.  That's crazy.  

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, greg775 said:

Well that's an interesting take. Your first sentence will go down in infamy. What you are saying is despite all this talk of WAR and advanced stats that so penetrate the war rooms of teams (no pun intended), the trade deadline is about ol Greg's "eye test" more than anything else. It's about a team needing a first baseman as you say, and not analyzing the advanced stats and saying simply, "That Abreu is a good hitter, a perennial all-star. We need to get that guy." You guys slay me sometimes. If everything about the brave new stat world or Greg's eye test?? p.s. (don't jump on me; you are the one who wrote it).

No that is not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is that contending teams have specific needs as they for the most part already have good clubs.

Sure the old axiom of you can never have enough pitching applies but when you look at position players if you have Stanton. Judge. You aren't looking for a corner OF. If you have Arenado at 3B you aren't looking for a 3B. If you have Sanchez catching you aren't looking for a catcher.

This isn't really news is it? Last year almost all the contenders had slugging 1B who were raking. Hell the astros were one of those teams. That is a big reason why JDM market was garbage. I really hate having to prove this point time and time again but go through the list of what teams are getting out of 1B/DH.

Rockies are getting 54 wRC+ out of their 1B. Yankees 81. Astros are getting 100. Mariners 92. Twins 89 out of their DH.

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, ChiSox59 said:

Right.  But earlier in the post you were talking about how Shields and Abreu have similar values.  That's crazy.  

Lemme just say this: that has more to do with Jose's problems as a 120 wRC+ type at 1B/DH then anything to do with James Shields.