Astros interested in Abreu?

[chitownsportsfan]

Just now, wrathofhahn said:

No that is not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is that contending teams have specific needs as they for the most part already have good clubs.

Rockies are getting 54 wRC+ out of their 1B. Yankees 81. Astros are getting 100. Mariners 92. Twins 89 out of their DH.

There we go, now that's good research.  The Rockies would benefit hugely by trading for Jose.  The Astros hardly at all, which makes this rumor pretty silly.  Why would the Astros give up anything of value for Jose when they are looking at like a .5 WAR difference the rest of the way?  But the Rockies appear to have a situation similar to the White Sox at 3B when they traded for Youk.

[wrathofhahn]

Just now, chitownsportsfan said:

There we go, now that's good research.  The Rockies would benefit hugely by trading for Jose.  The Astros hardly at all, which makes this rumor pretty silly.  Why would the Astros give up anything of value for Jose when they are looking at like a .5 WAR difference the rest of the way?  But the Rockies appear to have a situation similar to the White Sox at 3B when they traded for Youk.

Well he's in a mini funk right now so yes when you project out the difference it's not so hot but he has a career wRC+ of 137. Or about +30 runs above average.  It's also important to note wRC+ is not position specific so while the Astros are getting league average production they are doing so at 1B.

[greg775]

19 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

Well he's in a mini funk right now so yes when you project out the difference it's not so hot but he has a career wRC+ of 137. Or about +30 runs above average.  It's also important to note wRC+ is not position specific so while the Astros are getting league average production they are doing so at 1B.

He's in a mini funk now, but nobody ever seems to consider the funk could be caused via the mental part of the game. Nobody seems to accept the fact that playing for a team this bad can affect individual performance. Those who want to tank/rebuild have to accept the fact it's possible it affects the mental aspect of the game for players such as Avi, Abreu, Lopez, Gio, Moncada defensively, Timmy defensively. I contend Abreu's funk is team-crappiness related.

[Bob Sacamano]

9 minutes ago, greg775 said:

He's in a mini funk now, but nobody ever seems to consider the funk could be caused via the mental part of the game. Nobody seems to accept the fact that playing for a team this bad can affect individual performance. Those who want to tank/rebuild have to accept the fact it's possible it affects the mental aspect of the game for players such as Avi, Abreu, Lopez, Gio, Moncada defensively, Timmy defensively. I contend Abreu's funk is team-crappiness related.

He's been playing for a bad team ever since he got here.

[ron883]

9 minutes ago, greg775 said:

He's in a mini funk now, but nobody ever seems to consider the funk could be caused via the mental part of the game. Nobody seems to accept the fact that playing for a team this bad can affect individual performance. Those who want to tank/rebuild have to accept the fact it's possible it affects the mental aspect of the game for players such as Avi, Abreu, Lopez, Gio, Moncada defensively, Timmy defensively. I contend Abreu's funk is team-crappiness related.

Jose is the poster boy for performing better when the team is out and no pressure is on. He loves playing for a team with no expectations.

[Kyyle23]

There is nothing supporting what you say but hey keep right on being wrong

[chitownsportsfan]

4 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

There is nothing supporting what you say but hey keep right on being wrong

There's plenty of confounders (namely weather) but if you ran a regression with games back in the division as the independent variable and Jose's wRC+ as the dependent I don't think you'd come up completely empty.  

Edited June 21, 2018 by chitownsportsfan

[Kyyle23]

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

There's plenty of confounders (namely weather) but if you ran a regression with games back in the division as the independent variable and Jose's wRC+ as the dependent I don't think you'd come up completely empty.

His numbers across the board every season are pretty damn consistent month to month, with April being his slow starting month like many people.   Accusing him of being a guy who plays better when the pressure is off is pretty dumb (but for Ron its right on point) when it is absolutely not his fault that the team is bad.

 

Can you run that same equation on Trout and then accuse him of being a player that doesnt perform because the Angels only have been in the playoffs once since he has been in the league?   Dude is pretty much locked up as MVP every season and the Angels have been super disappointing since he came up.

 

Its petty AF

[footlongcomiskeydog]

15 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

He's been playing for a bad team ever since he got here.

Yep, and dude has been nothing but a professional hitter since he put on a White Sox uniform. It's a crying shame that the incompetent FO couldn't build a competitive team during Abreu's first few years on the South Side. 

He won't get moved unless Hahn gets absolutely blown away with an offer. 

 

[Sticky Stuff]

So what I take from all of this information is that there’s no way to know if Abreu’s numbers would be any better if he was with Houston from the beginning of the year, and that his WAR and whatever other metric numbers won’t increase the rest of the year if he was playing with Houston. That’s based on what he’s done with the Sox so far. Do we really believe a bat like Abreu’s in the Astros lineup wouldn’t change what the metrics say for him?

[footlongcomiskeydog]

14 minutes ago, DH in the NL said:

So what I take from all of this information is that there’s no way to know if Abreu’s numbers would be any better if he was with Houston from the beginning of the year, and that his WAR and whatever other metric numbers won’t increase the rest of the year if he was playing with Houston. That’s based on what he’s done with the Sox so far. Do we really believe a bat like Abreu’s in the Astros lineup wouldn’t change what the metrics say for him?

Dude, you might be on to something here. Bottle these thoughts up behind some shaky statistics, run it through a homemade algorithm, and sell it to some Bill James wanna be millennial. 

[ron883]

27 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

His numbers across the board every season are pretty damn consistent month to month, with April being his slow starting month like many people.   Accusing him of being a guy who plays better when the pressure is off is pretty dumb (but for Ron its right on point) when it is absolutely not his fault that the team is bad.

 

Can you run that same equation on Trout and then accuse him of being a player that doesnt perform because the Angels only have been in the playoffs once since he has been in the league?   Dude is pretty much locked up as MVP every season and the Angels have been super disappointing since he came up.

 

Its petty AF

Take a look at his clutch stats on fangraphs and get back to me. 

[Kyyle23]

3 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Take a look at his clutch stats on fangraphs and get back to me. 

Keep moving them goalposts

[chitownsportsfan]

10 minutes ago, DH in the NL said:

So what I take from all of this information is that there’s no way to know if Abreu’s numbers would be any better if he was with Houston from the beginning of the year, and that his WAR and whatever other metric numbers won’t increase the rest of the year if he was playing with Houston. That’s based on what he’s done with the Sox so far. Do we really believe a bat like Abreu’s in the Astros lineup wouldn’t change what the metrics say for him?

The only argument baseball wise you could make is that he'd see better pitches (the old "protection") and would thus hit better.  I never really bought that argument.  Who did Barry Bonds have behind him?  He seemed to do OK...

The point of the metrics like WAR is they provide symmetry across position, batting average, skill on the basepaths, park factors, and myriad other variables.  It's a singular measure of a player's worth that doesn't change regardless of where they play.

WAR really is not that difficult of a concept.  It's just a way of summing up everything a player contributes on the field and at the plate and on the basepaths and on the mound and comparing it to a "baseline" (this is an abstraction but it's important) -- the "baseline" is a "replacement player".  The easiest way to think of this is "a player that is freely available".  These are your David Palkas, your Tilsons,  the classic "AAAA" player.   These guys are available either in your farm or someone else's farm for in essence nothing.  It's only by giving value relative to these replacement players that MLB players are worth a spot on the 25 man roster.

 

[Kyyle23]

3 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The only argument baseball wise you could make is that he'd see better pitches (the old "protection") and would thus hit better.  I never really bought that argument.  Who did Barry Bonds have behind him?  He seemed to do OK...

The point of the metrics like WAR is they provide symmetry across position, batting average, skill on the basepaths, park factors, and myriad other variables.  It's a singular measure of a player's worth that doesn't change regardless of where they play.

WAR really is not that difficult of a concept.  It's just a way of summing up everything a player contributes on the field and at the plate and on the basepaths and on the mound and comparing it to a "baseline" (this is an abstraction but it's important) -- the "baseline" is a "replacement player".  The easiest way to think of this is "a player that is freely available".  These are your David Palkas, your Tilsons,  the classic "AAAA" player.   These guys are available either in your farm or someone else's farm for in essence nothing.  It's only by giving value relative to these replacement players that MLB players are worth a spot on the 25 man roster.

 

Im not disputing everything else here but Bonds for the most part had pretty good hitters around him for his career.  Kent, Bonilla and Matt Williams were not easy outs 

[Sticky Stuff]

4 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The only argument baseball wise you could make is that he'd see better pitches (the old "protection") and would thus hit better.  I never really bought that argument.  Who did Barry Bonds have behind him?  He seemed to do OK...

The point of the metrics like WAR is they provide symmetry across position, batting average, skill on the basepaths, park factors, and myriad other variables.  It's a singular measure of a player's worth that doesn't change regardless of where they play.

WAR really is not that difficult of a concept.  It's just a way of summing up everything a player contributes on the field and at the plate and on the basepaths and on the mound and comparing it to a "baseline" (this is an abstraction but it's important) -- the "baseline" is a "replacement player".  The easiest way to think of this is "a player that is freely available".  These are your David Palkas, your Tilsons,  the classic "AAAA" player.   These guys are available either in your farm or someone else's farm for in essence nothing.  It's only by giving value relative to these replacement players that MLB players are worth a spot on the 25 man roster.

 

What I don’t understand is how people can say Abreu wouldn’t get us a Whitley or Tucker from the Astros when they have no major league track record. How do metrics tell us that we couldn’t get either one of those guys in a trade for Abreu?

[soxfan49]

11 minutes ago, DH in the NL said:

What I don’t understand is how people can say Abreu wouldn’t get us a Whitley or Tucker from the Astros when they have no major league track record. How do metrics tell us that we couldn’t get either one of those guys in a trade for Abreu?

This trade would make more sense if there was a...DH in the NL.

See what I did there?

I'm here all night.

[Kyyle23]

Just now, soxfan49 said:

This trade would make more sense if there was a...DH in the NL.

See what I did there?

I'm here all night.

Are you saying the Astros don’t use a DH?

[chitownsportsfan]

1 minute ago, DH in the NL said:

What I don’t understand is how people can say Abreu wouldn’t get us a Whitley or Tucker from the Astros when they have no major league track record. How do metrics tell us that we couldn’t get either one of those guys in a trade for Abreu?

Great question!  What having a stat like WAR does it allow us to estimate how much MLB teams pay for a "win".  Right now, Fangraphs estimates that in a completely free market (which obviously it's not, but it's close enough for our purposes) a "win" is worth about 9 million.

That's how Fangraphs does their "trade value" rankings.  Their trade value is projected WAR * Cost Per WAR - money owed.  That's why Q and Sale and Eaton produced such awesome return, it wasn't just how good they are, but how good they are relative to their contracts.  This concept is also commonly called "surplus value".

And of course that is the reason that prospects are valued so highly now.  Prospects doesn't cost 9 million per win -- they cost almost nothing per win.  

Let's look at Jose's "surplus value" given all we just went over.  Jose is owned about 10 million the rest of the year.  He's expected to produce about 1.5 WAR (~15 million) of value.  So his surplus value is only about 6 million.  Well, what sort of prospects are worth about 6 million surplus value?  Not very good ones.  Not top 50 guys.  Probably not even those ranked 100-150.

Another way to to think about how to value prospects is to look at a chart of historical WAR by draft pick:

Look how a random pick around 50 is only worth about 2.5 expected WAR.  A pick around 150 is only worth about 1.  Obviously most picks in the 3rd round never even make MLB. 

So back to Jose -- his value is about a mid 2nd round pick in the draft.  But Whitley and Tucker have already proven they are worth way, way more than that.  Whitley was ranked #9 on pipeline coming into the year.  A prospect that highly rated is worth incredibly more than 1.5 WAR or 6 million surplus value.  He's worth about 5-15 (big error bars here) WAR and accordingly about 50-80 surplus value.  There's no way you're getting that for Abreu.  

Anyways, I've kinda bored of this post, hope it helped some.

[Eminor3rd]

14 minutes ago, DH in the NL said:

What I don’t understand is how people can say Abreu wouldn’t get us a Whitley or Tucker from the Astros when they have no major league track record. How do metrics tell us that we couldn’t get either one of those guys in a trade for Abreu?

1.5 years of a 125 wRC+ DH/1B just flat out hasn't been worth a top 25 prospect.

There's always the possibility of something unprecedented, but given that Astros have been among the stingiest of teams when trading prospects recently, and they already have a borderline legendary offense, there really isn't any reason to believe they'll suddenly decide to set a new market level.

[southsider2k5]

26 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The only argument baseball wise you could make is that he'd see better pitches (the old "protection") and would thus hit better.  I never really bought that argument.  Who did Barry Bonds have behind him?  He seemed to do OK...

The point of the metrics like WAR is they provide symmetry across position, batting average, skill on the basepaths, park factors, and myriad other variables.  It's a singular measure of a player's worth that doesn't change regardless of where they play.

WAR really is not that difficult of a concept.  It's just a way of summing up everything a player contributes on the field and at the plate and on the basepaths and on the mound and comparing it to a "baseline" (this is an abstraction but it's important) -- the "baseline" is a "replacement player".  The easiest way to think of this is "a player that is freely available".  These are your David Palkas, your Tilsons,  the classic "AAAA" player.   These guys are available either in your farm or someone else's farm for in essence nothing.  It's only by giving value relative to these replacement players that MLB players are worth a spot on the 25 man roster.

 

Mr Roid is one helluva clean up hitter.

[southsider2k5]

3 minutes ago, Eminor3rd said:

1.5 years of a 125 wRC+ DH/1B just flat out hasn't been worth a top 25 prospect.

There's always the possibility of something unprecedented, but given that Astros have been among the stingiest of teams when trading prospects recently, and they already have a borderline legendary offense, there really isn't any reason to believe they'll suddenly decide to set a new market level.

I am 100% on board with this train.  While the Astros might have interest, I also see them as the least likely to pay up.

[ptatc]

40 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

The only argument baseball wise you could make is that he'd see better pitches (the old "protection") and would thus hit better.  I never really bought that argument.  Who did Barry Bonds have behind him?  He seemed to do OK...

The point of the metrics like WAR is they provide symmetry across position, batting average, skill on the basepaths, park factors, and myriad other variables.  It's a singular measure of a player's worth that doesn't change regardless of where they play.

WAR really is not that difficult of a concept.  It's just a way of summing up everything a player contributes on the field and at the plate and on the basepaths and on the mound and comparing it to a "baseline" (this is an abstraction but it's important) -- the "baseline" is a "replacement player".  The easiest way to think of this is "a player that is freely available".  These are your David Palkas, your Tilsons,  the classic "AAAA" player.   These guys are available either in your farm or someone else's farm for in essence nothing.  It's only by giving value relative to these replacement players that MLB players are worth a spot on the 25 man roster.

 

The big downfall of WAR, just as it is with most of the similar stats is that it's based on a homemade algorithm of what one person or a group of people think is important. It's fun to compare but it is really subjective time in its measurements.

[Chicago White Sox]

I’m not going to argue against the concept that 1B aren’t typically in high demand come the trade deadline, but let’s stop using projected surplus value as the end all be all when it comes to deadline deals.  What was Chapman’s projected surplus value for the rest of the season when the Cubs gave up a haul for him?  Need/desperation come into play and guys who have been 135 to 140 wRC+ type hitters will be in short supply.  Throw in a likely compensation pick after 2019 and there is a reason to be optimistic here.  Again, we won’t get an elite prospect like Eloy for him, but I think some people here are seriously under-valuing what Abreu will be worth.

[soxfan49]

23 minutes ago, Kyyle23 said:

Are you saying the Astros don’t use a DH?

I was joking. I was insinuating that if the Astros don't need Abreu as evidenced on the top of this page, maybe an NL team could use him...but they don't have a DH (his username is DH in the NL)