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Astros interested in Abreu?


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1 hour ago, DH in the NL said:

This forum would’ve lost their shit if the Sox took the deal the Pirates did if we had Garret Cole. His performance with the Pirates isn’t close to what it is now with the Astros. Do you think if Cole pitched the way he is now with the Pirates they would’ve taken that deal? 

Hahn will not take a deal like that knowing what the team trading for Abreu is going to get in return. If the Astros won’t give Hahn what he’s looking for then next team up. 

I hope you're right that there is line of teams waiting.

But I look at what the Tigers got for Martinez, what they got for Verlander, and say that the Cole return wasn't that bad.   And, yes, Cole is pitching right now like he never has before. 

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7 minutes ago, GreenSox said:

I hope you're right that there is line of teams waiting.

But I look at what the Tigers got for Martinez, what they got for Verlander, and say that the Cole return wasn't that bad.   And, yes, Cole is pitching right now like he never has before. 

All 3 of those guys have excelled with the teams they went to. Abreu is no different. 

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2 hours ago, striker said:

If Abreu walks, you MIGHT get a supplemental draft pick and a year and a half of mentoring. Players like Pham, Judge, Kluber, Hand etc were not on any top prospect lists. So you have to take some gamble and rely on your scouts. If you got one of Fisher, Davis or Stubbs, or got a couple top 10 players that aren't top 100s, you are still putting yourself in better position in the long run. Now I wouldn't just give him away for anything, but I wouldn't cry if we didn't get a top 100 prospect.

Yep.  Look at Teo Hernandez whom the Jays got in minor trade with the Astros for Liriano.
On a side note, they did a nice job trading for Liriano (getting prospects to take the salary) and then trading him away.

There is talent to be had.

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1 hour ago, GreenSox said:

Yep.  Look at Teo Hernandez whom the Jays got in minor trade with the Astros for Liriano.
On a side note, they did a nice job trading for Liriano (getting prospects to take the salary) and then trading him away.

There is talent to be had.

I LOVEEEED the trade for the Jays when they did it.  Always viewed Teoscar as a diamond in the rough.  Been on my dynatsy team before the trade

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6 hours ago, Hot FiRe said:

Jose has been so freaking awful lately. He effectively killed his trade value once again. He flat out doesn't deserve to be an all star. 

lol...yes, because front offices overreact to slumps as much as the common fan.  Teams will pay for Abreu based on what they project out of him in the 2H of 2018 & 2019 and if they believe they’ll get a comp pick for him when he leaves.  They’ll certaintly use the slump as leverage in negotiations, but that doesn’t change his actual value.  For a guy who seems to understand baseball, your hatred for Jose Abreu is quite bizarre.

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41 minutes ago, harkness99 said:

He has been in a bad slump lately.. but not enough to really change any trade value.

Yup- 1 month of bad baseball (with a little bit of bad luck mixed in- his BABIP over his slump is .242) might change the mind of a message board poster, but a GM will value the past 5 years of production over that one month stretch. 

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1 hour ago, Chicago White Sox said:

lol...yes, because front offices overreact to slumps as much as the common fan.  Teams will pay for Abreu based on what they project out of him in the 2H of 2018 & 2019 and if they believe they’ll get a comp pick for him when he leaves.  They’ll certaintly use the slump as leverage in negotiations, but that doesn’t change his actual value.  For a guy who seems to understand baseball, your hatred for Jose Abreu is quite bizarre.

By 2019, the qualifying offer is likely to be closing in on $19 million for 1 year. Honestly, Abreu is unlikely to receive any compensatory picks with his career arc and his age. And for this being a "slump", right now he's looking an awful lot like the player he was in 2016, a low-.800s OPS player who is now in his early 30s. 

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11 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

By 2019, the qualifying offer is likely to be closing in on $19 million for 1 year. Honestly, Abreu is unlikely to receive any compensatory picks with his career arc and his age. And for this being a "slump", right now he's looking an awful lot like the player he was in 2016, a low-.800s OPS player who is now in his early 30s

JD Martinez will be 31 in August. Abreu turned 31 in January. Wonder why we hear nothing about his age? Must be because he hasn’t had a slump yet. 

Edited by DH in the NL
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51 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said:

Yup- 1 month of bad baseball (with a little bit of bad luck mixed in- his BABIP over his slump is .242) might change the mind of a message board poster, but a GM will value the past 5 years of production over that one month stretch. 

We can only hope.  And all it takes is one.
 

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12 minutes ago, DH in the NL said:

JD Martinez will be 31 in August. Abreu turned 31 in January. Wonder why we hear nothing about his age? Must be because he hasn’t had a slump yet. 

Frankly yeah, because Abreu isn't a consistent .950+ OPS guy, he was that guy for 1 year and has gone downward since then. Seriously, just take a look at his career OPS number; if you were trading for this guy, you're trading for him hoping he might put up an .820 OPS the next year and a half and then you can cut him loose. 

.964
.850
.820
.906
.793

Over the past 4 years combined that averages out to an .850 OPS.

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50 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

By 2019, the qualifying offer is likely to be closing in on $19 million for 1 year. Honestly, Abreu is unlikely to receive any compensatory picks with his career arc and his age. And for this being a "slump", right now he's looking an awful lot like the player he was in 2016, a low-.800s OPS player who is now in his early 30s. 

Dude put up a wRC+ of 140 in the first two months of the season (normally when he’s cold) and looked the part.  Now he’s suddenly on an age trajectory because of one bad month?  I’m convinced you’re a robot that doesn’t understand players have bad stretches and oftentimes will start pressing.  I’m guessing being the one legit hitter in the lineup on a struggling team isn’t helping matters.  Regardless, I don’t know why you keep bringing up 2016 as if that was somehow the beginning of a downward spiral.  It was well documented that he was dealing with personal issues and completely rebounded in 2017, so your theory is pretty off there.

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Dude put up a wRC+ of 140 in the first two months of the season (normally when he’s cold) and looked the part.  Now he’s suddenly on an age trajectory because of one bad month?  I’m convinced you’re a robot that doesn’t understand players have bad stretches and oftentimes will start pressing.  I’m guessing being the one legit hitter in the lineup on a struggling team isn’t helping matters.  Regardless, I don’t know why you keep bringing up 2016 as if that was somehow the beginning of a downward spiral.  It was well documented that he was dealing with personal issues and completely rebounded in 2017, so your theory is pretty off there.

And yet now take a look. What year looks like the exception? 2017.

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1 minute ago, Balta1701 said:

And yet now take a look. What year looks like the exception? 2017.

What?  One month ago it didn’t look like an exception at all.  You really need to pull his rookie season out of the equation as his droppoff the following year was due to the league adjusting to him, not some sort of aging curve.  Other than the season he was dealing with personal issues and a bad June of this year, he’s been consistently in the 130 to 140 range for wRC+.  You are really reaching here to create this aging curve narrative.  Are you actually suggesting he just suddenly lost all his ability in June?  If not, what elements of his production in April & May were outliers?

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

What?  One month ago it didn’t look like an exception at all.  You really need to pull his rookie season out of the equation as his droppoff the following year was due to the league adjusting to him, not some sort of aging curve.  Other than the season he was dealing with personal issues and a bad June of this year, he’s been consistently in the 130 to 140 range for wRC+.  You are really reaching here to create this aging curve narrative.  Are you actually suggesting he just suddenly lost all his ability in June?  If not, what elements of his production in April & May were outliers?

During the month of April he put up a .267 BABIP and a .827 OPS. During May, he put up a .390 BABIP and a .933 OPS. During June, he put up a .243 BABIP and a .599 OPS. So yeah, when you picked him right at the top of an unsustainable hot streak, it didn't look unsustainable. 

It looks like, thanks to May being hot and June balancing it out, he's right back to the hitter he was in 2016, which you're telling me is an exception he won't match again.

 

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It's going to be great when all our players are between 24 and 28 years old and there's no more talk of trades. You can say what you want about "nobody hates Abreu" on this board but there's a general malaise about Abreu, that he's basically finished. He's too old in the eyes of fans who pore over all the advanced stats. I don't know why fans think we're going to get anything for Abreu then. Are you all smarter than GMs throughout baseball? If he's too old for you don't you think he's too old for the other GMs? What's left is giving him away for 3 guys who will never sniff the majors. Weird world.

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Just now, greg775 said:

It's going to be great when all our players are between 24 and 28 years old and there's no more talk of trades. You can say what you want about "nobody hates Abreu" on this board but there's a general malaise about Abreu, that he's basically finished. He's too old in the eyes of fans who pore over all the advanced stats. I don't know why fans think we're going to get anything for Abreu then. Are you all smarter than GMs throughout baseball? If he's too old for you don't you think he's too old for the other GMs? What's left is giving him away for 3 guys who will never sniff the majors. Weird world.

Frankly, everything you've said here is correct. He still remains a solid player and he will likely remain a solid player for the next few years, but he's fairly paid to be that solid player, which means you're unlikely to get anything of huge value back for him in a trade. 

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57 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:

Frankly, everything you've said here is correct. He still remains a solid player and he will likely remain a solid player for the next few years, but he's fairly paid to be that solid player, which means you're unlikely to get anything of huge value back for him in a trade. 

Unless you eat all or most of his salary. I don’t see any reason the Sox wouldn’t do that. Their payroll is next to nothing. 

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I don't know why some of you guys think a veteran like Abreu won't have tremendous value to the Sox on the field and in the clubhouse. I'd say this board consists of the Sox most passionate fans and for the most part the most stat savvy fans and I think we can conclude "most" of you won't lose any sleep over trading Abreu. It makes very little sense to me because as we've seen in Moncada and Lopez and Gio, these guys are all potentially fine players but to tell you the truth, Abreu's stats the past four years are close to the ceiling of what you should "expect" from Robert, Rutherford, all those studs we have now. Maybe Eloy is projected to do a bit better. I maintain to you Abreu has incredible value to the Sox being the veteran in the clubhouse and on the field. I contend his lousy production of late probably has to do with his mental state of mind. Playing for such a loser of an organization to this date has to wear on you during your at bats.

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