Astros interested in Abreu?

[Baker]

Nolan Arenado was out today publicity asking Rockies management for trade help. They need a 1st baseman bad. I think Abreu’s mentoring has run its course. Let’s make a deal. 

[kwolf68]

3 minutes ago, Baker said:

Nolan Arenado was out today publicity asking Rockies management for trade help. They need a 1st baseman bad. I think Abreu’s mentoring has run its course. Let’s make a deal. 

They really need pitching. Desmond has been hitting well lately at 1st base...not sure why they need a 1B at this point.

[Baker]

7 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

They really need pitching. Desmond has been hitting well lately at 1st base...not sure why they need a 1B at this point.

fWAR sits at -0.3 there at 1st base for the season. 3rd from bottom. 

[kwolf68]

Just now, Baker said:

fWAR sits at -0.3 there at 1st base for the season. 3rd from bottom. 

 

Where is it over the last month? Desmond was a dumpster fire the first 6 weeks. 

[Chicago White Sox]

8 hours ago, Balta1701 said:

You're dancing around the data to avoid the obvious - that his decline is in fact real. However, let's take your hypothesis on its face - that the reason he is performing worse against fastballs is that pitchers are attacking him differently. This is, once again, a 5 year trend line. If his decline against fastballs is due to pitchers working him a different way, then is there any reason to assume he will pop back from his decline? No, pitchers will continue attacking a weakness that he has failed to adapt to over a multi-year period, and will continue to be more effective in the attack as they have been through his career.

Furthermore, I did not ignore the other pitch data in the process, I noted it. Last year, in 2017, he did what he had to do to be a good hitter while becoming progressively worse against fastballs. However, as we've seen, that improved performance against sliders and other offspeed pitches has not continued in 2018, which is strong evidence that the 2017 performance was a one year blip upwards that made his data look better than it otherwise would have been.

To continue the case, over his career, his OPS is .807 against what B-R counts as "power pitchers" - pitchers in the top 1/3 of the league in strikeouts + walks. This is somewhat lower than his career OPS of .874, but the important thing is that it's once again trending down. Started at .924 his first year, was at .818 in year 2, .751 in year 3, .809 in year 4, and .615 this year. In his first 2 seasons there was no obvious bias towards him struggling against power pitchers, but in the past 3 seasons a strong bias has emerged where he hits guys with low strikeout totals far worse than he hits guys with high strikeout totals. 

So I was able to dive a little deeper into your claim that Jose Abreu has lost bat speed as he's aged & is now unable to catch up to fastballs.

Below are some numbers (four seamer data only) I've pulled from Statcast and my underlying findings:

• 2018 represents Jose's highest average exit velocity on four seamers (since Statcast started)
• 2018 represents Jose's highest line drive % of balls in play on four seamers (since Statcast started)
• Jose is swinging more on four seamers this year, both inside & outside the zone
• Jose's batted balls in play are down a bit this year, entirely due to pitches outside the zone
• Jose's swinging K percentage is up a bit this year, far more significantly outside the zone
• Jose's HR numbers are relatively flat, but with some small improvement within the zone
• Jose's XBH numbers are up moderately, entirely due to improvement within the zone
• Jose's batter balls in play are up significantly against high velocity pitches, both within & outside the zone
• Jose's swinging K % is down significantly against high velocity pitches, both within & outside the zone
• Jose appears to be struggling with low velocity pitches within the zone & medium velocity pitches outside the zone
• I see no evidence to suggest a substantial drop-off in bat speed or that his ability to catch-up to fastballs has been impacted 

[SCCWS]

Well Red Sox traded for Pierce so they will not be a suitor for Abreu.  

[BlackSox13]

2 hours ago, SCCWS said:

Well Red Sox traded for Pierce so they will not be a suitor for Abreu.  

He's a pacifier for the time being. Pearce isn't going to give Boston any power from the position. I'd bet all of Gregg's houses they are still looking at Abreu.

[Timmy U]

2 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

He's a pacifier for the time being. Pearce isn't going to give Boston any power from the position. I'd bet all of Gregg's houses they are still looking at Abreu.

Or with JBJ’s struggles, I bet they look at Avi.

[BlackSox13]

1 hour ago, Timmy U said:

Or with JBJ’s struggles, I bet they look at Avi.

It's possible but who else do they have to play CF because Avi isn't the answer for CF? 

Wouldn't be surprised if Boston is trying to package JBJ + Swihart together. Boston's two top prospects are out right now so it might be the best they have to offer. Personally I'd wait until we got a better feel for what the Rockies are looking for. I really don't like what Boston has to offer in a trade.

[Timmy U]

3 hours ago, BlackSox13 said:

It's possible but who else do they have to play CF because Avi isn't the answer for CF?

Betts and Benintendi can both play center.  Pick one and put Avi in that corner spot.

[chitownsportsfan]

Good lord.  Helluva time to put together this shit.  .6 fWAR, a 117 wRC+ and a staggering 9 runs below average at 1B.  On pace to be an incredible 18 runs below average at 1B, which would be the worst mark of his career.

Guess he's stayed on the field, got that going for him.

[ron883]

5 minutes ago, chitownsportsfan said:

Good lord.  Helluva time to put together this shit.  .6 fWAR, a 117 wRC+ and a staggering 9 runs below average at 1B.  On pace to be an incredible 18 runs below average at 1B, which would be the worst mark of his career.

Guess he's stayed on the field, got that going for him.

Bite your tongue unless you want to forever be labeled a Jose Abreu hater. The dude has been a mediocre player this season when you factor in his pathetic defense. Gavin Sheets can't come quickly enough. 

[greg775]

24 minutes ago, Hot FiRe said:

Bite your tongue unless you want to forever be labeled a Jose Abreu hater. The dude has been a mediocre player this season when you factor in his pathetic defense. Gavin Sheets can't come quickly enough. 

How come everybody gives Tim Anderson a break for an entire season because of a death of his close friend and NOBODY is trying to figure out what could be wrong with Abreu? I guess it's cause he's old. Could there be something going on with Jose? He's always subject of trade rumors amid this horrible team. I can't imagine it's easy for him to excel every single year amid personal rumors of trades and his teammates being so inferior to him in most positions.

My guess is even if Tim was still struggling with the death, fans on here would give him a second season to properly mourn. Double standard (and yes I feel sorry for Tim for losing a close friend; death of friends and family is awful).

Edited July 1, 2018 by greg775

[Soxfest]

Hahn  should listen too any offers for JA, when team gets good he is well passed his prime.

[BlackSox13]

26 minutes ago, greg775 said:

How come everybody gives Tim Anderson a break for an entire season because of a death of his close friend and NOBODY is trying to figure out what could be wrong with Abreu? I guess it's cause he's old. Could there be something going on with Jose? He's always subject of trade rumors amid this horrible team. I can't imagine it's easy for him to excel every single year amid personal rumors of trades and his teammates being so inferior to him in most positions.

My guess is even if Tim was still struggling with the death, fans on here would give him a second season to properly mourn. Double standard (and yes I feel sorry for Tim for losing a close friend; death of friends and family is awful).

As I read this post TA just made a nice backhanded play to throw a dart to Davidson to save a run.

Abreu is in a funk, no different than previous years. He'll rebound.

[Jose Abreu]

2 hours ago, chitownsportsfan said:

On pace to be an incredible 18 runs below average at 1B, which would be the worst mark of his career.

 

That's not really true. Every first baseman is already X runs below average due to the Fangraphs positional adjustment. He would be below average for sure but not by 18 runs relative to other first basemen.

 

If that's what you meant. 

[he gone.]

I'd have an open conversation with Abreu. If the Astros want to put together some prospects for him that make sense you take it to Abreu and have a convo with him and say hey this is our thought process, we'd like to give you a chance to contend via trade and then resign you in 1.5 years.

 

That would be my ultimate situation - trade him, get some nice pieces and then resign him.

[wrathofhahn]

On 6/24/2018 at 12:58 AM, Eminor3rd said:

Again, you're just wrong here. What it's measuring has nothing to do with "what should have happened." It is simply stripping parts of run prevention out of pitching and assigning those to defense. It is measuring things that happened, not things that should have happened.

It is a descriptive statistic. It is not a predictive model. That's not my opinion, it's a fact. You can hate it all you want, but don't hate it for reasons that aren't true.

That is simply not the case and it goes far beyond stripping out defense. It also accounts for strand rates HR/FB. A whole host of other things.

And when you say stripping out defense what you really mean normalizing their stats with imaginary numbers based on league average defense. The problem with that is WAR is supposed to measure the worth of the player to the club. It actually does a really poor job of what it actually was designed to do and I've seen numerous studies proving this most them compare the teams collective WAR with the teams actual wins and there is a wide spread in how accurate it is.

It does a good job of measuring the worth of a player as a quick comparison metric leaguewide which is maybe what it has turned into.

[Eminor3rd]

17 minutes ago, wrathofhahn said:

That is simply not the case and it goes far beyond stripping out defense. It also accounts for strand rates HR/FB. A whole host of other things.

And when you say stripping out defense what you really mean normalizing their stats with imaginary numbers based on league average defense. The problem with that is WAR is supposed to measure the worth of the player to the club. It actually does a really poor job of what it actually was designed to do and I've seen numerous studies proving this most them compare the teams collective WAR with the teams actual wins and there is a wide spread in how accurate it is.

It does a good job of measuring the worth of a player as a quick comparison metric leaguewide which is maybe what it has turned into.

No... no it does not.

This is the formula for FIP:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=493

None of those thing are in it. I don't know what stat you're thinking of, but it isn't FIP.

Edited July 7, 2018 by Eminor3rd

[greg775]

On 7/2/2018 at 9:40 AM, BrianAnderson said:

That would be my ultimate situation - trade him, get some nice pieces and then resign him.

You guys are dreaming with this scenario. How often does this happen in baseball? Unless the player is a retread like Hector? Geez. If we trade Abreu he's not going to be dreaming of a return to the Sox. He'll get used to his new team for gawd sakes or just go to another.

[black jack]

I just looked up "Pito" in the urban dictionary. 

[GreenSox]

 Astros (or anyone) offers  nice pieces they should just trade him.
No time for sentimentality or good in the clubhouse.

Edited July 7, 2018 by GreenSox

[greg775]

This is a good article but i just can't believe Abreu is going to command a 9 figure deal when he's a free agent. That means $100,000,000 for five years? 20 mill a year or something? Jose's age in this current climate and projected production in the new era of stats in no way suggests a team will give him that kind of money. What is the writer thinking? If the Sox are projecting Jose to get that type of contract, then I'm sure he'll be traded. 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/ct-spt-white-sox-trade-rumors-20180705-story.html

Edited July 7, 2018 by greg775

[soxfan49]

14 minutes ago, greg775 said:

This is a good article but i just can't believe Abreu is going to command a 9 figure deal when he's a free agent. That means $100,000,000 for five years? 20 mill a year or something? Jose's age in this current climate and projected production in the new era of stats in no way suggests a team will give him that kind of money. What is the writer thinking? If the Sox are projecting Jose to get that type of contract, then I'm sure he'll be traded. 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/ct-spt-white-sox-trade-rumors-20180705-story.html

You are his biggest fan. James Shields makes more than $20. Justin Upton makes more than $20. Do you not believe he's worth that?

[greg775]

18 minutes ago, soxfan49 said:

You are his biggest fan. James Shields makes more than $20. Justin Upton makes more than $20. Do you not believe he's worth that?

Is he worth that? Not living in the world of the new-wave stat people who I read closely on this board. First of all he's way too old (remember the new wave stat people are starting to 'brainwash' Greg). Secondly he's terra-bad defensively I've learned. Thirdly, if he keeps hitting like this, many will say he's pretty much on an apparent, rapid, Alex Gordon-like decline. You can't have it both ways. The new-wave stat people tell me Abreu won't even bring much in a trade now. What team would pay him $100,000,000 for five years for certain to decline productivity? In answer to your question, hell no, I don't think he's worth that (because of what the new stat people have put in my head). Of course not. I see him as signing a deal in the 12 to 14 million a year range for 4 years. Folks, he has nothing going for him in terms of what an ideal ballplayer is now. A bad defensive first baseman I've been told, who is of the age a decline is pretty much certain.

Put it this way, if he is certain to get nine figures like Sullivan says, then the Sox would be able to get a great haul for him in trade before the deadline. My take is no way and if the stat people on here tell me he's going to get nine figure deal after everything you've taught me about bad defensive first basemen and declining players in terms of age, I give up. 

The stat people can't have it both ways. You are teaching me what to look for now in a ballplayer and according to what I've been taught here, he's worth what I suggest in free agency, not what Sullivan suggests.

My stance hasn't changed BTW: Keep Abreu, let his contract run out, and uh, try to sign him? Enter the sweepstakes with the other teams when it's time and keep him for 13-15 mill a year for 4 years.

Edited July 7, 2018 by greg775