Chicago White Sox Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 Alright, with so many posters here upset with how the team is currently performing, I thought it would be a fun exercise to theoretically construct a roster for the 2019 season that could potentially win it all. There are only two rules. You can NOT trade the entire farm system to improve the major league squad. We should remain a middle of the pack system after all moves are made. Second, the projected 2019 payroll has to be $150M or below. Go ahead and sign as many free agents as your little heart desires. Below is my theoretical plan. And for the record, I am not suggesting we should execute the plan below, I'm saying I believe this team could be a serious World Series contender in 2019. . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg775 Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 You and me are on the same page from my response in the other thread. You got two starters; some relief help; your star is Machado mine was Harper. Hmmmm. Is Greg on your "smart person" list now? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 Your #2 starter currently has an ERA of 5.77. Yeah it's in Coors, but seriously, that team is no match for the big guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jose Abreu Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: Your #2 starter currently has an ERA of 5.77. Yeah it's in Coors, but seriously, that team is no match for the big guys. Yeah if we traded that package for Gray I'd be pretty upset. Even though the ERA is inflated by Coors and some bad luck, he's not worth Cease, Adolfo, and Sheets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 9, 2018 Author Share Posted July 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Balta1701 said: Your #2 starter currently has an ERA of 5.77. Yeah it's in Coors, but seriously, that team is no match for the big guys. Gray has a 3.10 FIP and has put up 2.5 fWAR in half a season. That fWAR total would rank 13th best starter in baseball this year. But hey, if you want to suddenly use ERA to evaluate pitchers and completely ignore peripherals, then more power to you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 9, 2018 Author Share Posted July 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jose Abreu said: Yeah if we traded that package for Gray I'd be pretty upset. Even though the ERA is inflated by Coors and some bad luck, he's not worth Cease, Adolfo, and Sheets. It’s a steep price to pay, but I think it’s realistically what it would take. And I’m not suggesting I would execute this plan if I could. I strongly believe we should remain patient and not trade from our cupboard until the offseason before the 2020 season when we should have a better idea of our needs. Also. I think one of the more interesting aspects of this exercise was realizing just how few cost-controlled talents are going to be available in the coming years. So many of these impact types are already on contenders. I’m not even sure if Gray would be available, but the Rockies seem like a team that might change directions in the not too distant future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 9, 2018 Share Posted July 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said: Gray has a 3.10 FIP and has put up 2.5 fWAR in half a season. That fWAR total would rank 13th best starter in baseball this year. But hey, if you want to suddenly use ERA to evaluate pitchers and completely ignore peripherals, then more power to you. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/7/9/17546278/jon-gray-rockies-babip-fip-dra-luck Quote I have seen fans and media members alike make that argument. Here is the problem when making that argument for Lackey before and Gray now: BABIP, FIP, HR/FB, DRA, and strand rates only work for major league quality pitchers. All models have their flaws and limitations. Every single one of them. That includes major sciences such as physics and chemistry. Those problems are dealt with as long as the models are useful. That’s just Science 101. I am reminded of when I wrote about Jered Weaver breaking the DRA model. As one of its inventors Jonathan Judge confirmed, DRA was never intended to handle a pitcher as bad as Weaver. Likewise, DIPS theory, from where we got BABIP and FIP, was never developed with terrible pitchers in mind. A major league quality pitcher can suffer from the aforementioned stats being high due to bad luck. A terrible pitcher who has no business being in the major leagues will also suffer from those stats being high, but it will have little to nothing to do with luck. Writers such as Crizer, Lindbergh, and Edwards understand this, which is they did not write short, simple articles dismissing Gray’s poor performance as bad luck. Thankfully, the misuse of these stats int this manner has never been much of a problem. Bad pitchers usually do not stick around the majors long enough for anybody to cite DIPS theory to say that they will regress to the mean. It only ever happens when a seemingly established pitcher with good peripherals starts to allow a ton of runs. This is not to say that Gray is no long a major league quality pitcher. He is a fascinating, complicated outlier, which is why so many words have been written on him already. The point is that DIPS theory and DRA are not going to work when a pitcher has an RA9 approaching six runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, Tony said: Did Yolmer die? Lol...I knew that would come up and probably warranted an explanation. I’m assuming he’s traded for prospects that have no impact on the rest of the 2019 roster. In this highly unrealistic scenario, we can’t afford to pay Yolmer $5M or so to backup three guys who should start 150 games each. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 46 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/7/9/17546278/jon-gray-rockies-babip-fip-dra-luck What is your point here? Are you suggesting Gray is not a major league quality pitcher? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ron883 Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 (edited) Step 1: invent a time machine and hire WSBSF to be GM in 2016. The sox would be well on their way to a dynasty if Jerry just gave him that one shot. Edited July 10, 2018 by Hot FiRe 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tray Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 I'll bite As long as we are in the theatre of the absurd ....ok, If the Sox would be willing to sign Machado to an enormous contract just trade for him right now. I'd even offer Moncada for a package with Machado and a high prospect if that is what it would take. Then let Yolmer play second base until Madrigal is ready. Yea, I know, Moncada is the centerpiece of the rebuild, the guy we got for Sale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, tray said: I'll bite As long as we are in the theatre of the absurd ....ok, If the Sox would be willing to sign Machado to an enormous contract just trade for him right now. I'd even offer Moncada for a package with Machado and a high prospect if that is what it would take. Then let Yolmer play second base until Madrigal is ready. Yea, I know, Moncada is the centerpiece of the rebuild, the guy we got for Sale. Not a fan of these words. I like signing Keuchel no matter what and signing Kimbrel to 1yr/25mil. Trade him next deadline paying full contract and grabbing one last major haul of prospects. Then sign Arenado and start winning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, Jerksticks said: Not a fan of these words. I like signing Keuchel no matter what and signing Kimbrel to 1yr/25mil. Trade him next deadline paying full contract and grabbing one last major haul of prospects. Then sign Arenado and start winning. WTF? Did he go down for Tommy John surgery while I was in Montana? He's getting $100 million otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 32 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: WTF? Did he go down for Tommy John surgery while I was in Montana? He's getting $100 million otherwise. Si si. I meant the classic overpay for 1 year move we’ve been proposing on here for a decade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Jerksticks said: Si si. I meant the classic overpay for 1 year move we’ve been proposing on here for a decade. Yeah that's not an overpay for him, that's a fair value for his first year. You need to put $50 million on the table to make it an overpay for a 1 year deal, to give him a reason to turn down a guaranteed $100 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 Marte is going to be a free agent in 2020, although there are currently team options, for 2020 and 2021. Your proposed trade seems like a lot to give up for him, since you are likely not going to want him, in 2020 and beyond, which is when Robert will be ready. That lineup is dangerous, but has only one LH hitter, who could hit in the middle of the order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCCWS Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 10 hours ago, Balta1701 said: WTF? Did he go down for Tommy John surgery while I was in Montana? He's getting $100 million otherwise. Kimbrel is an elite closer. They want to go to teams that will play in October not teams that are coming off a rebuild. Not so much for the winning as the number of close opportunities. Now if you blow away the market w money, that could change things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerksticks Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, SCCWS said: Kimbrel is an elite closer. They want to go to teams that will play in October not teams that are coming off a rebuild. Not so much for the winning as the number of close opportunities. Now if you blow away the market w money, that could change things. Well yea he gets the guarantee of getting traded to a contender mid season instead of having to roll the dice. Like Balta said, that would probably take more than $25M. Or do a handshake deal saying we’ll overpay him the next year with Arenado. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago White Sox Posted July 10, 2018 Author Share Posted July 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Lillian said: Marte is going to be a free agent in 2020, although there are currently team options, for 2020 and 2021. Your proposed trade seems like a lot to give up for him, since you are likely not going to want him, in 2020 and beyond, which is when Robert will be ready. That lineup is dangerous, but has only one LH hitter, who could hit in the middle of the order. Robert’s injuries this year probably delay his timeline a bit. I see him as more of a mid 2020 guy than an early 2020 guy. Also, the way I viewed this hypothetical team is several veterans would leave or be traded after the 2019 season to make room for escalating salaries. Avi would probably go with Basabe being his immediate replacement. Castillo’s option would not be picked up and Collins would take his place. Someone like Rodon could be moved to open up a spot for Dunning. Obviously I didn’t think through all of it but that was the underlying logic. Adding Marte would allow us to theoretically not rush Robert to the big league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Sacamano Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 (edited) 4 hours ago, Lillian said: Marte is going to be a free agent in 2020, although there are currently team options, for 2020 and 2021. Your proposed trade seems like a lot to give up for him, since you are likely not going to want him, in 2020 and beyond, which is when Robert will be ready. That lineup is dangerous, but has only one LH hitter, who could hit in the middle of the order. You could pick up the option and deal him. Or, in this proposed scenario, Garcia is a free agent after 19 so you keep Marte anyway. Edited July 10, 2018 by soxfan2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eminor3rd Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 11 hours ago, tray said: I'll bite As long as we are in the theatre of the absurd ....ok, If the Sox would be willing to sign Machado to an enormous contract just trade for him right now. I'd even offer Moncada for a package with Machado and a high prospect if that is what it would take. Then let Yolmer play second base until Madrigal is ready. Yea, I know, Moncada is the centerpiece of the rebuild, the guy we got for Sale. wat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, raBBit said: I want Harper and Patrick Corbin to be the big targets. Of course wouldn't be mad about Machado but I think Harper could be had cheaper and is that top tier LH bat the Sox want. I'll be honest, after this first half, I have no idea what Harper's price will be. I could very well see him taking a 1 year deal if he finishes this season hitting .220. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 14 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said: Alright, with so many posters here upset with how the team is currently performing, I thought it would be a fun exercise to theoretically construct a roster for the 2019 season that could potentially win it all. There are only two rules. You can NOT trade the entire farm system to improve the major league squad. We should remain a middle of the pack system after all moves are made. Second, the projected 2019 payroll has to be $150M or below. Go ahead and sign as many free agents as your little heart desires. Below is my theoretical plan. And for the record, I am not suggesting we should execute the plan below, I'm saying I believe this team could be a serious World Series contender in 2019. . I like Keuchel, but his declining K% rate gives me some pause. He's all the way down to 6.7 K/9 (8.4 in his CY Young season in 2015). He will likely get paid this offseason, but I'm not sure he will continue to be a TOR guy for the next 3-5 years. Not sure Gray has been healthy enough to warrant that sort of package. If Cease can finish 2018 strong in AA, he could be knocking on the door of the majors mid-way through 2019. Adolfo has continued to improve in 2019 and is still a young player that I'm not sure I want to ship out just yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steveno89 Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 59 minutes ago, Balta1701 said: I'll be honest, after this first half, I have no idea what Harper's price will be. I could very well see him taking a 1 year deal if he finishes this season hitting .220. I'm not sure Harper wants to hit free agency off a 3.0 WAR season (roughly) either. He could take a one year deal high salary deal, mash, and cash in next offseason with a big contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenSox Posted July 10, 2018 Share Posted July 10, 2018 The Sox need another year of development and assessments before they can make the major moves. I look at this team and it looks .500ish to me. Not enough pitching depth, sluggish OF defense; very ?able pen behind Kimbrall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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